Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 121125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Biggest forecast concerns in this time frame is clearing trend later
today and then the potential for fog late tonight. Large area of low
clouds and drizzle cover the Ozarks and southeast Kansas this
morning. Short term models depict a shortwave to translate across
northern and central Missouri around midday today, pushing a weak
surface trough/front through the area. With this scenario, expect
the drizzle to continue into the mid morning hours before ending.
However, clouds look to hang on most of the day and perhaps into the
evening hours before clearing. As high pressure settles in tonight
from the north, light winds are expected and this will set the stage
for the potential for fog formation. Confidence not high on fog at
this point as it will depend on how much clearing occurs.

As for temperatures, highs this afternoon will top off in the low
to mid 50s, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Mid and upper level flow gradually transitions from slightly
northwest at the beginning of the period to more zonal by the middle
of the week. High pressure will slide off to the east Monday with
return flow and warm advection on its backside across the central
Plains. Moisture will eventually get pulled northward into the
region, but not until later Monday night, with a broad warm
advection regime leading to showers late Monday night and Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, a front approaches from the northwest with
continued warm advection ahead of it as low level jet noses into
the area and then traverses the forecast area on Wednesday.
Models continue to show mid level instabilities Tuesday night into
Wednesday and thus will continue mention of thunder.

The frontal boundary stalls across Arkansas and then returns north
on Thursday before another stronger upper level shortwave moves
through the Plains and brings another cold font through the area on
Friday. This will bring another chance for showers and isolated
thunder Thursday night into Friday.

High pressure and drier weather will follow behind the frontal
passage for next Saturday. Overall, rainfall amounts will be
between one tenth and one half inches for the upcoming week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Patchy drizzle will continue into the early morning hours as MVFR
ceilings are expected to lower, with short term models suggesting
some IFR likely between 12Z-15Z this morning. Models are
indicating MVFR ceilings for much of the day before some clearing
takes place tonight. Confidence not high on timing of clearing,
but once it does it looks like fog will be a good bet. For now
will introduce 3-5SM visibilities after 06Z tonight and will have
to monitor for possible lower visibilities.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.