Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 160543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1143 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The freezing line and most of the precipitation has shifted to
the north of the Ozarks this afternoon removing the threat of
freezing rain from the Ozarks. This allowed us to expire the ice
storm warning as expected.

In its place however, the moisture continues moving into the area
along with near zero dewpoint depressions and light winds will
allow fog to develop across the area this afternoon and into this
evening. Some areas have already seen visibilities drop to a half
mile of less along the Arkansas state line. A dense fog advisory
is in effect for those areas. There may be a need to expand the
dense fog advisory to the north as the area looks as though it
will likely expend through the afternoon and possible into this
evening as the result of a combination of stratus build down and
advection fog.

The region will see somewhat of a break in the rain this afternoon
though areas of drizzle may linger. However, the storm system
across the plains will begin to lift to the northeast through
tonight. This will allow more rain to spread into the Ozarks
through tonight with rain impacting the Ozarks through the day

This dynamic system, which has a negative tilt, will have the
potential for convective elements. Have added thunder to the
forecast beginning this evening around 00z through Monday as the
system moves slowly to the northeast. While instability will
initially be limited, can rule out a few rumbles this evening. The
better chances of Thunderstorms will come through the day Monday.

Enough instability and deep lift may be available Monday afternoon
for an isolated strong storm or two to impact portions of south
central Missouri towards the boot heel region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The deep trough across the desert southwest and into old Mexico is
expected by the models to cut off and linger nearly in place
through the middle part of the week. THis will place the Ozarks
under the continued influence of southwesterly flow aloft as we
head into late Thursday into Friday. By then, the models finally
begin the kick the systems out and to the northeast. This would
bring another period of rainfall to the region, but this system
will not loiter over the area as long as the ongoing system is.

The long range models have some timing differences with the rain
for the end of the week with the ECMWF bringing rain to the area
Thursday morning and GFS and Canadian holding off til Friday
afternoon and evening.

A deep digging trough is then expected to finally change the
upper level pattern over the plains and Ozarks for next weekend
and into next week, but that is a long way off at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

An area of rain has moved into western Missouri this evening and
will continue to spread east across the region into Monday
morning. Ceilings my jump from IFR to MVFR at times this evening
with IFR visibility likely in the heavier showers. An isolated
rumble or thunder or two will be possible with in the showers
tonight into Monday morning.

Dense fog will continue at the KBBG site into the overnight
hours. Later tonight when the rain starts to spread into the KBBG
area visibility may start to improve.

The rain will end Monday morning and may start to see some
improvement in ceilings Monday afternoon. There is the possibility that
ceilings then start to lower Monday evening. Gusty southeasterly
to southerly winds will develop Monday.


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for MOZ082-091-092-



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