Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 200824
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Gathering showers were concentrated the most in southwest Missouri
out toward McDonald County, as an upper level disturbance approached.
Robust updrafts are not anticipated, therefore we decided leave
out any mention of thunder. The shower activity could continue into
your morning commute mainly south of Highway 60. Nearly all shower
activity will dissipate by the afternoon period. Highs today will
likely warm into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Water Vapor was
showing dry air spreading in, increasing sunshine this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
We have been monitoring a pattern conducive for mild and dry weather
in our region for the next several days, as an upper level ridge
navigates over the nations mid section through Wednesday.
Wednesday night into Thursday will be our next decent shot for showers
or maybe even some isolated thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF
ramp up QPF amounts over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moisture
levels will be low amongst the Ozarks airmass due to north winds
directed across the Gulf of Mexico, mitigating deep moisture return.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be short lived Thursday, moving
east of the region by Thursday night. Yet another anomalous ridge
recharges across the desert southwest, and expands over the Ozarks
into the upcoming weekend. This pattern will bring warm weather
eastward over much of the nation`s mid section. Readings in the
seventies will be well above average for the last week of October.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014
An upper level disturbance will pass through the region overnight
and into Monday morning. A few rain showers will occur across
southern MO however ceilings and visibilities are expected to
remain in the VFR category. Southerly winds will shift to the west
and then northwest on Monday as a cold front moves through the
region. Although beyond this TAF period, it does look like there
may be some fog potential late Monday night.