Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 101122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
522 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Update to Aviation Discussion for 12Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

An upper level trough was spreading east across the southwestern
U.S. early this morning. Ahead of the trough and upper level ridge
was in place across the region resulting in southerly winds and a
warming air mass spreading into the area. Early morning temperatures
were in the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Fog was occurring mainly across the eastern Ozarks early this
morning, but overall visibility trends were improving. A Fog
Advisory goes until 10 am this morning, but may be able to let it
go early. Still some lower visibilities will be possible in spots
early this morning.

Gusty southerly winds will occur today into tonight with gusts up
to 30 mph occurring at times, especially across southeastern
Kansas and the western Ozarks.

The southerly winds will result in much warmer conditions today
and tonight. Highs this afternoon will warm into the middle to
upper 50s, with a few locations approaching the 60 degree mark
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.

Some lift will start to develop across the area this evening and
tonight and some drizzle or light rain will be possible,
primarily across central Missouri. Lows tonight will remain in
the 40s to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

The upper level trough currently across the southwestern U.S. will
continue to track east into the Plains tonight and across the
region on Thursday. The trough will send a cold front through the
area, pushing into extreme southeastern Kansas/far western
Missouri Thursday morning spreading east across south central
Missouri Thursday afternoon. Quite warm temperatures will occur
ahead of the front. Highs will reach the 50s before falling
sharply behind the front into the 20s.

The 850mb front will lag the surface front some, so warmer
temperatures aloft will occur in the lower levels of the
atmosphere behind the front. As the trough spreads east light
precipitation will develop along and behind the front. With the
warmer temperatures aloft, the precipitation type will be in the
form of freezing rain or sleet as the shallow arctic air mass may
become cold enough for the rain to freeze to sleet before hitting
the ground. For much of the area this precipitation will be light
and the front will be fairly progressive in the nature overall
across the area. Preciptiation amounts will be a little heavier
east of the area. Southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks will
generally see a light glaze to less than a tenth of a inch of
ice and sleet accumulations with the higher amounts across the
eastern Ozarks. Colder air aloft will spread into the area and
some light snow, possibly producing a dusting, will likely occur
before precipitation comes to an end, Snow amounts will be light
if any at all.

Colder air will spread into the area behind the front with highs
in the 30s on Friday and then only warming into the 20s on
Saturday into early next week as an upper level northwest flow
pattern sets up over the region. An upper level disturbance may
track through the area early next week and could bring flurries
or light snow to the area, but amounts at this time appear to
remain on the light side.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

A low level stratus deck is currently over much of the area early
this morning. This could deck is starting to dissipate though and
expecting VFR conditions by mid morning.

Gusty southerly winds will occur through out the TAF period. Low
level wind shear will also be a concern during the entire TAF
period also ahead of an approaching storm system to the west.

Ceilings will likely lower again this evening/tonight.


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ056>058-



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