Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251741 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Stratus has cleared to the east over the past several hours and we
briefly have a totally clear sky across the CWA. Some high clouds
were streaming towards the area from the west early this morning.

Upper trough has shifted east of the area into the TN/OH valley
region with a ridge building in. Surface winds were beginning to
back to the south and 850 winds to the southwest setting up some
low level warm advection. Pressure gradient is expected to tighten
up over the area today with low pressure developing across the
high Plains leading to windy conditions, especially over our
western CWA. This will be the main focus in the short term period.

Focus will shift to precipitation chances late Friday into Friday
night as a frontal boundary pushes into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Very windy conditions are expected across our western CWA today as
the pressure gradient tightens up over the region. While mixing
heights will not be all that high today, winds will be fairly
strong at the mixing level and we are expecting to reach advisory
criteria over extreme southeast Kansas into far southwest Missouri
from late morning into the mid afternoon hours. Winds of 30 to 45
mph will be possible during that time. Further east, it will be
breezy to windy as well, but not strong enough to reach advisory
criteria. In addition, the wind will combine with temperatures
rising into the 50s and dry conditions to produce some elevated
fire weather conditions over roughly the same locations as the
wind advisory will cover. Winds should begin to subside by late
afternoon, but will probably remain gusty into the evening.

Temperatures today should reach the low to mid 50s with lows
tonight from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

On Friday a cold front will begin to move through the area from
northwest to southeast. Should be enough warming to occur ahead of
the front to reach the low to mid 50s once again. Light rain will
be possible late in the day and into Friday night. The colder air
will lag a bit behind the front, but will begin to advance into
the area late Friday night into Saturday. Models have trended
towards ending the precipitation earlier and have reduced
precipitation chances from northwest to southeast on Saturday as
drier air works into the region.

A colder Canadian air mass will work into the area behind a
secondary cold front which will move in late Monday into Monday
night. Precipitation chances look fairly minimal at this point and
have removed any mention of precipitation from the forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be significantly colder
by the middle of next week as this air mass moves in with highs in
the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Primary forecast concern will continue to be gusty southerly winds
today, transitioning to low level wind shear tonight. Strong low
pressure in the lee of the central Rockies will result in frequent
gusts to around 25kt at BBG/SGF and around 35kt at JLN this
afternoon. After sunset, gusts will subside a bit, but
southwesterly low level wind shear will increase. VFR conditions
are expected through tonight with a gradually increase in high
clouds. MVFR stratus is expected to develop overhead during the
mid/late morning hours Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ066-077-088-
     093-101.

KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan






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