Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 130917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

As expected, isentropic ascent is increasing this morning across
the region, leading to an increase in coverage of precipitation
along and south of I-44. As of 2 AM, the freezing line stretched
from Pineville to Branson to Willow Springs and Eminence; for
areas along and north of this line, precip is falling as freezing
drizzle and freezing rain.

In general, the forecast for the next 48 hours or so has changed
little this morning. All attention will be on the exact
progression of the freezing line, which continues to be a tricky
forecast. Guidance is in general agreement in bringing this line
north to about Highway 60 by mid day today, with just a very
slight northward creep through the rest of the afternoon. With
breezy northeast winds across the region, colder and drier air
will be continually advected southwest into the area. Cold air
advection and evaporative cooling should offset a good deal of the
latent heat release from the freezing rain, keeping the northward
progression of the freezing line on the slow side today.

By tonight, temperatures may warm a degree or two during the
evening, before leveling off or even falling by a degree during
the overnight hours. This will especially be the case over central

The slow northward progression of the freezing line will continue
Saturday and Saturday night. Current expectations are for the US
54 corridor to finally warm above freezing late Saturday night or
Sunday morning.

At this time, the latest ice totals look to be quite close to
previous forecasts. In general, areas to the south of US 60 will
see up to a quarter inch of ice. Along the US 60 and I-44
corridors, a quarter to half inch of ice is expected. The heaviest
amounts continue to appear likely to occur across central and west
central Missouri, with three quarters of an inch or more of
freezing rain.

Two key messages to note this morning...

1. Much of the precipitation through this event will be showery
in nature. In most cases, this will not be a steady rain, but
instead off and on showers with periods of drizzle in between.
This will likely lead to quite a bit of variability with road
conditions/impacts, as well as storm total ice accumulations.

2. The freezing line continues to be the absolute key to how much
freezing rain falls at any location, and confidence in its exact
progression remains low. We will be continually tweaking hourly
temperature forecasts over the next day or so to account for the
latest observations and model trends.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

By Sunday night, temperatures should finally be above freezing
across the entire forecast area as a compact shortwave lifts
northeast toward the area from the Texas Panhandle. We should see
an area of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms move through the
area Monday, before precip finally comes to an end Monday night or
early Tuesday. Highs on Monday will be quite mild, with readings
in the low 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday looks rather pleasant, with baggy zonal
flow becoming southwesterly by the end of the week. Temperatures
will be at or above average during this time, with generally dry
conditions. Rain chances will return late in the workweek into
next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Isentropic lift has developed across Arkansas and is lifting
north into the area early this morning. Showers will start to
spread into southern Missouri early this morning and ceiling will
lower through the night. Drizzle will develop as ceilings lower
with showers at times, in between the showers drizzle will be
likely. The showers will start to spread north of the area by late
this morning, but drizzle will occur through the afternoon and
evening. IFR to LIFR ceilings will develop this morning and remain
into the afternoon with MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Temperatures will be at or below freezing at the TAF sites at the
start of the precipitation so it will be in the form of freezing
rain or freezing drizzle. Warmer air will start to spread north
into the KBBG site by late morning changing it over to drizzle.
The warmer temperatures will be slow to warm north and there is
questions if above freezing temperatures can back it as far north
of KSGF and KJLN, and if they do can temperatures cool back below
freezing during the evening. One degree either way could be the
difference between freezing drizzle or drizzle occurring into the
evening hours at KSGF and KJLN. At this time went with drizzle
late afternoon and evening, but again if temperatures are just
slightly cooler freezing drizzle will continue.


MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ097-101>106.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for MOZ082-083-088-

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-

KS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Saturday for KSZ101.

     Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ073-097.



LONG TERM...Boxell
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