Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211055

555 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

The airmass behind this front will not be much cooler as highs
will still top out in the lower to middle 70s Tuesday afternoon
under sunny skies. Upper level ridging will build over the region
on Wednesday as highs warm into the middle to upper 70s. Southerly
winds will increase and become breezy and gusty on Wednesday. Drier
conditions will spread into the area behind the cold frontal
passage this evening. The southerly winds will help to pull
increased moisture into the region, but this moisture return will
be slow across the eastern Ozarks during the day on Wednesday. The
combination of increased southerly winds and dry conditions
will result in elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday
afternoon across the eastern Ozarks.

An upper level low is then expected to push east into the northern
Plains by Wednesday night and then into the Great Lakes region by
Friday. A cold front will push across the Plains on Wednesday into
Wednesday night ahead of the upper level low. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western Kansas south into Texas late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. These storms will then
form into a complex of storms across central Kansas Wednesday
night and push east towards the area late in the night into
Thursday morning. This activity will then push across the area
Thursday morning into the early afternoon and will push east of
the area during the afternoon hours. The timing of these storms
should result in instability not to be able to increase with the
heating of the day and should limit the strong to severe potential
with this activity.

The front will push south into southern Arkansas Thursday night
into Friday. The front will then slowly lift back to the north as
a warm front Saturday into Sunday. The medium range models differ on
how quickly and how far north the front tracks back to the north
this weekend. An upper level low will also dig into the southwestern U.S.
this weekend and energy from the low and the warm front will be
the focus for shower and thunderstorm development this weekend.
Still too far out to pin out the exact locations of the front
during this time, especially with the model inconsistency. The
front will be over or near the area this weekend resulting in
chances for showers and thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity have increased in
coverage through the overnight hours, but the majority of the
convection has shifted northeast of the TAF sites. This initial
precipitation was with the beginning of shortwave energy moving
into the area from the upper level low. The showery activity will
be on again/off again throughout the day today with several waves
of energy moving through. Can`t rule out some embedded thunder,
with the best risk of that occurring during the afternoon. The
main shortwave trough axis will push through the area this
afternoon into the early evening with precipitation ending during
the early evening. Sky should then clear from northwest to
southeast late tonight as high pressure builds into the region
behind a surface cold front and upper ridging builds into the
area. Through the precipitation event, we are expecting VFR and
MVFR conditions. Can`t rule out a brief period of IFR with a heavy
shower or thunderstorm, but predominant conditions will be VFR/MVFR.




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