Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161733
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few showers and some isolated storms remain over portions of
western Missouri early this morning. This activity continues to
weaken and should dissipate around sunrise this morning.

This afternoon may see some redevelopment of some
isolated/scattered storms across the eastern Ozarks. With
instability increasing, a few of the stronger storms may be
capable of strong wind gusts.

Highs will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s this
afternoon. Heat index values of around 100 degrees are expected
generally along and west of I-49.

Additional storms are expected to develop across Iowa this
afternoon/evening. These storms will develop into another complex
of storms and dive to the southeast. How far west this MCS can
affect will depend on exactly where the storms develop but the
best potential for the storms will be across central Missouri
tonight.

The MCS will be strongest to the north, and should be weakening as
it pushes into our area, but strong to severe wind gusts are
expected with the storms, especially  across central Missouri. A
few of the strongest updrafts will also have the potential for
some penny to perhaps quarter hail.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few lingering showers/storms may be over portions of the
eastern Ozarks Saturday morning. If any outflow boundaries remain
over the area from the morning convection an isolated storm of two
will be possible but overall most of Saturday should be dry.

Hot and humid conditions will occur across the entire area on
Saturday. Highs should warm into the lower to middle 90s Saturday
afternoon with heat index values around 100 to 106 degrees. The
hottest conditions will occur across extreme southeastern Kansas
into western Missouri where heat index values around 105 degrees
are expected. As a result will go ahead an issue a Heat Advisory
for these areas.

A cold front will then slide south into northern Missouri
Saturday evening. Storms will develop along the front then the
front and storms will slide southeast through the area into
Saturday night. Again strong to severe storms are expected to the
north with storms generally again weakening as they spread south.
A strong to severe damaging wind risk will occur across the area
especially locations north of Highway 54. A large hail risk will
also be possible.

Cooler conditions will spread into the area Sunday into early next
week. Highs in the upper 70s/low 80s are expected Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures then will warm into the middle/end of next
week with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s returning.

An upper level disturbance will push through the area Monday into
Tuesday and may trigger a few storms. AT this time do not expected
widespread coverage to occur.

A better chance of showers and storms will then occur later next
week as an upper level system and front slide south through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Terminals can expect VFR conditions through the afternoon and
evening...but may see some isolated convection over south central
Missouri in the vicinity of the remnant MCV this afternoon.

Overnight...an MCS is forecast to form in the SW IA/SE NE/NW MO
region and move southeast through the night. Right now...believe
that this will affect mainly central and eastern portions of the
area...but have included VCTS for KSGF from 06-10z as the terminal
may be on the western edge of the activity. Will need to continue
to monitor further development later this afternoon and evening.

Also added some low-level wind shear overnight as the low level
jet sets up. Otherwise...kept mainly south to southwest wind under
10kts through the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055-066>068-
     077>079-088-089.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede



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