Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 280538
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

...06Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Band of showers developing within low level theta ridge under
weakly diffluent flow aloft to move eastward into the forecast
area during the late afternoon/early evening. Rain chances will
increase later tonight as low level jet increases and upper
diffluence improves. QPF will approach an inch into Monday
morning over the southeast third of the CWA.

Models diverge a bit in ending the rain then on Monday. Anticipate
bulk of rain to be exiting into the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon
with some patchy light rain continuing until the upper trough
passes.

TSRA chances remain iffy through the period with models suggesting
200 J/KG at best overnight and maybe 400 J/kg over south central
MO on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Upper low will continue to wobble around the northern plains into
midweek leaving the region within a dry and seasonably cool southwest
flow. Cooler air will descend into the region on the backside of
the system Wednesday keeping temperatures below normal into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect
the terminals on an intermittent basis for the first part of the
overnight tonight. Ceilings are expected to bounce between MVFR
and VFR through the overnight hours as well. South to southeast
winds will remain quite gusty, with 25-30 kt gusts common at SGF
and JLN.

More organized shower/thunderstorm activity will start to affect
the terminals towards daybreak. MVFR to IFR cigs and vis can be
expected in and around precipitation. The most widespread activity
is expected to occur between just before sunrise and mid day on
Monday; a clearing trend can then be expected after noon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Boxell



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