Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 152315
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014
...Update to Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014
A cold front is moving into the area this afternoon and evening.
The front as of mid afternoon was located just north of Chanute
Kansas to just north of the Lake of the Ozarks region. Sunshine
has warmed temperatures in the lower 80s over portions of
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Will mention the chance
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop by
late afternoon along the front as it moves through this evening.
Minor convection was beginning to develop on radar along the front as
of this discussion.
The majority of the showers will dissipate by late evening. The
forecast sounding suggest a good signal for low clouds and patchy
drizzle after midnight through early tomorrow morning especially
on the Ozark Plateau.
The front will stall out just to our south on Tuesday. Tuesday
will be mostly cloudy and rather cool with highs in the upper 60s and
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM
CDT MON SEP 15 2014
The front will back up as a warm front late Tuesday night with the
help of a low level jet up to 40 knots. A mid level impulse will
ride along the northwest flow and interact with the frontal
boundary and low level jet. Bulk shear will be around 35 knots and MUCape
values approaching 2000 J/KG. Elevated convection will develop
over southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A few strong storms can not be
ruled out with sub severe hail the main threat...up to nickel size
Additional scattered showers and storms will be possible Wednesday
night and Thursday as the front remains stalled across the area. The
front will finally wash out late Thursday and Friday as upper
level ridging will move over the area. Temperatures will warm back
up into the lower 80s by the end of the week.
A trough will dig down across the northern plains region into the
Midwest by Saturday. This will bring down a cold front late
Saturday and Saturday night. This front will bring another round
of showers and thunderstorms this weekend followed by another cool
down behind the front Sunday and Monday.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A cold front is currently
pushing south through the area early this evening. Scattered
storms did develop on the front over the the last couple hours,
but this activity is really starting to decrease in coverage as we start
to lose day time heating. The best chance for a TAF site to be
affect is the KJLN TAF site just prior to the start of the 00Z TAF
cycle with the activity expected to be south of the site by 00Z.
Behind the front winds will switch to the north through the night
becoming more northeasterly during the day Tuesday. Ceilings will
lower into the MVFR range a couple hours behind the frontal
passage and remain there overnight, with IFR ceilings expected for
a few hours early Tuesday morning. Conditions will then improve to
VFR by the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday.