Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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846
FXUS63 KSGF 271838
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Upper level system currently situated over eastern Kansas with the
surface low over central Oklahoma and an associated warm front
situated across northern Arkansas. Showers with some embedded
thunderstorms continue across the area.

As the upper level system makes its was into the Ohio Valley...the
surface front will continue to lift northward during the day. The
moist unstable air to the south of this front could make it into
south central Missouri by this afternoon. If this pans out...there
will be a marginal threat for severe storms with hail and wind
being the primary threat.

Highs in the warm sector will make it into the upper 60s to
possibly 70 this afternoon while areas in west central MO will be
in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Progressive pattern will continue through the forecast period with
two systems expected to affect the area during the period. The
first system is currently approaching the California coast and
will dig into the southern Rockies and form a closed low in the
four corners area Tuesday afternoon as it makes its way into the
southern Plains on Wednesday.

Rain should begin late Tuesday night with SPC having the area in a
slight risk for severe during the day on Wednesday. This system
also has the potential for dropping 1-2 inches of rain area wide
before departing on Friday.

Friday and Saturday should be mild with temperatures near to
slightly above seasonal normals. The next system then approaches
Saturday afternoon and remains through the weekend. Still some
issues with timing and positioning between the different models
that will need to be resolved in later runs.

Overall...temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60s for
highs and low to mid 50s for lows with the approach of each
system and fall into the mid to upper 50s for highs and low to mid
40s for lows as the system passes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect MVFR and possibly some IFR ceilings this afternoon and into
tonight.

An upper level storm system was causing lowered flight conditions
across the region, with even some fog in spots.

No additional showers or thunderstorms are expected for the
Joplin, Springfield, and Branson airports.

Flight conditions should improve Tuesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Cramer



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