Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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529
FXUS63 KSGF 170444
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Seasonably mild day was witnessed across the Ozarks as surface
high pressure continues to settle into the region. Main forecast
challenge tonight will be overnight lows given clear skies, light
winds but neutral temperature advection. Anticipate the lower end
of the guidance...especially over the eastern CWA where patchy
frost is expected.

More of the same is then expected on Tuesday with temperatures a
tad warmer as the axis of the high shifts slightly southeast and
heights start to slowly climb.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Medium range models advertise multiple ripples in the northwest
flow through midweek however low level moisture to remain lacking
due to the surface high over the southeast.

Temperatures as a result will undergo a slow warming trend through
the week with the pattern entering into a more active state late
in the work week.

Models at this time are in general agreement in digging a long
wave trough over the western US...though differences exist in how
the northern and southern streams are handling energy being kicked
out ahead of the main trough. Best chances for rain continue to
be Saturday night into Sunday...though scattered thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out at this point on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

For the 06z TAFS, we are expecting VFR conditions through the
period with a very dry air mass in place across the area. The
surface ridge will slip to the east starting overnight tonight, so
the light and variable winds at the TAF sites will become
southerly overnight. Will probably see some steady winds at 10 to
15 kts at SGF/JLN on Tuesday during the day and possibly some
afternoon gusts at JLN up to 15 to 18 kts, but should diminish to
a steady 8 to 10 kts by sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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