Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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185
FXUS63 KSGF 231739
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Unseasonable warm weather will continue through the weekend as the
region remains between the blocked high to the east and a digging
trough to the west. High temperatures though will trend a few
degrees cooler today as heights marginally fall and then again
tomorrow as a weak wave induces clouds and perhaps a few spotty
showers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Short range model consistency extends into the work week...though
there are some questions whether the models are accurately
advecting the western trough eastward too quickly given the weak
Rex block over the east and meridional flow to the west.

While not that significant of a wave but one none the less will
be kicked out ahead of the western trough across the Southern
Plains on Monday inducing an inverted trough/weak surface front
into the Ozarks. This will continue the slow cooling trend noted
over the weekend and potentially lead to scattered thunderstorms.

With the above mentioned caveats in mind, models are consistent
then in breaking down the eastern ridge enough for the western
trough to ease east increasing the modest chances for
thunderstorms during the mid week period...and a return to
seasonable mild temperatures that will last into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. A sfc ridge of high pressure will extend
from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks for this taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...DSA



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