Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271115
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Conditions were fairly mild overnight as temperatures dropped into
the 30s. We did have some dense fog developing in the Osage
Plains. Therefore we`ve decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
portions of southeast Kansas and west central Missouri.

This fog should burn off by mid to late morning, setting the stage
for much warmer temperatures. Look for highs in the 60s, with
moisture advecting in from the Gulf.

This moisture advection could bring some showers and a thunderstorm
or two today. Some of the SSEO signals from SPC was suggesting
chances for convection in southeast Kansas and west central
Missouri this afternoon. Given the shear - cape combination, we
could experience organization with any storms that fire. Therefore
we will include a severe risk for hail for late this afternoon
into the overnight period.

The overnight period could feature storm potential in all areas,
particularly far southern Missouri. Tonight`s lows will only drop
into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Continued warm air advection is expected on Tuesday as
temperatures warm well into the 70s. This increase in moisture and
instability will set the stage for some organized storms Tuesday
night.

It remains to be determined if storms will fire within the warm
sector. If they do, then we can expect those storms to be quite
severe in nature given the high shear and moderate instability
that will be present. However, the NAM12 suggests that the warm
sector will remain capped, until the actual cold front surges into
southern Missouri to trigger storms. These storms could also be
severe, with a large hail and damaging wind risk.

Storms are expected to exit the region by Wednesday. The Wednesday
through Sunday period looks dry and mild. Temperatures by next
weekend will warm back into the 60s.

Wave 5 analysis shows an anomalous ridge popping over the Rocky
Mountains, and nosing well into south central Canada. This regime
would offer above normal temperatures for the Ozarks, along with
limited rain chances through the extended and getting into mid
March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Generally VFR conditions can be expected today across the area,
with the main aviation concern being gusty south/southeast winds
today and tonight. These winds will help bring increase moisture
into the area later this evening, resulting in a gradual increase
in cloud cover. Ceilings may eventually drop to MVFR by the
predawn hours tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MOZ055-066-
     067-077-078.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell



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