Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 120401
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Main focus for evening update is temperatures. The 01Z to 02Z
temps were quite a bit colder than prev fcst, which is common to
see a quick drop off after sunset with the calm winds and clear
skies. Winds now are beginning to pick up over the northwest and
not sure how much we are going to drop...but the CONSSHORT had a
decent handle on the early evening obs and have adjusted hourly
temps per its guidance. Clouds over the south have allowed the
southern valley and southeast North Dakota to warm up a few deg
but it should clear out later as the clouds depart. By then winds
will have increased a bit over that area so my south is much
warmer for overnight lows. Even with the colder temperatures in
the north, however, and the increasing winds expected by
09Z...apparent temps are remaining in advisory as opposed to
warning criteria...so bottom line is slightly lower ambient temps
in the north, higher in the south and no changes to ongoing
headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Main concerns for tonight will initially be wind chills, then the
addition of to blowing snow late in the overnight and towards
morning.

As of 21z, surface high pressure was centered near the central ND
and SD border. Temperatures have struggled to rise much this
afternoon, even with plenty of sunshine. Just enough wind will keep
wind chills in advisory criteria (or reaching criteria later this
evening) so have extended the ongoing Wind Chill Advisory (in both
area and time).

The surface high will continue to slide off to the southeast this
evening as a compact upper wave and associated surface low skirt
along the international border. Models depict some very light QPF
across the far northeast as this moves through, but with its fast
moving nature and limited moisture, minimal, if any, accumulation
will be likely.

The main impact for our region with this wave will be increasing
winds first to the south and then to the west behind the wave.
Increasing northwest winds will move into the Devils Lake basin
late this evening and spread south and east towards Thursday
morning. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts, with gusts possibly pushing
35-40 kts, should be more than enough to produce some areas of
blowing snow, even without any new snow falling. Just how much
this blowing (and drifting) snow will affect visibility and
driving conditions will need to be monitored. At this time, feel
there should be enough across the Devils Lake basin and northern
Red River Valley for the morning commute to produce some issues so
have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this time frame.
Wind chills will be even more of an issue as they will heads
towards the -40 degree mark early Thursday with the increase in
winds. Winds will decrease throughout the day as another area of
high pressure builds into the Northern Plains.

Regarding temperatures...the increase in winds should keep
temperatures from dropping off much, if at all, overnight. Colder
air will filter into the region beginning in the afternoon as the
surface high begins to build in.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Surface high to settle in over the fa Thursday night. Coldest air
will slide east of the forecast area however with fresh snow, light
winds and skc will still be a cold night with sub 20 below readings.
In addition, return flow and warm advection after midnight may
allow temperatures to level off or limit drop from valley west.

Respectable warm advection and mixing to some degree will allow for
nice thermal recovery from Friday on with temperatures reaching
average values by the end of the weekend with little if any pcpn
expected. First half of next week will continue with at or above
average temperatures. Some pcpn may glance the far SE Tuesday
however confidence low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 956 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

The main impact on aviation tonight will be wind as wind speeds
increasing after midnight, becoming quite gusty by 0900Z. This may
cause reduced visibilities at some sites, most likely GFK and DVL,
for brief periods of time in the 09Z to 18Z timeframe. Other than
that, some low VFR clouds across NW Minnesota as a weak system
brings a chance for some light snow to the northeast of TVF. No
snow or lower cigs expected at TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Thursday for NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Thursday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MNZ002-003-006-
     009-015>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Thursday for
     MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher



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