Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201907
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF CLOUDS INTO
WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION IN THAT REGION
AND THE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LEANING TOWARD A CONS RAW
TYPE MIN TEMP SOLUTION WITH THE LARGEST GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE UPDATED HOURLIES FOR BASICALLY STEADY TO
RISING TEMPS WEST OF THE FORESTED AREA OF MINNESOTA...AND DIURNAL
IN THE FORESTED REGION AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER N CNTRL MN AND
WINDS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND 12Z
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF A LOW MVFR DECK
CURRENTLY ALONG AND BEHIND A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. NOT ENOUGH
EARLY AM VIS IMAGES TO GET A GOOD TRACK ON SPEED WITH SPEED/TOA
TOOL...BUT SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT FOR 1 PM CST UPDATE.
THIS WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS TODAY FOR DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS MORE
CONFIDENT THE EASTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST DEVILS
LAKE BEFORE SUNDOWN. SAME ISSUE WILL IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO
EXPECT A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WHICH PREV FCST ALREADY SUGGESTS. AGAIN DVL REGION WILL BE
MOST CHALLENGING AREA AS CLOUDS ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. WE WILL
ALSO SEE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION INCREASE OVER THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY SUN DOWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY. AFTER A COLD START
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING BUT BY MID/LATE
EVENING RETURN FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURE DROP. THE FAR EAST WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST READINGS HAVING LONGEST TO RADIATE OUT.

BRISK S-SW SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RH IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE WHICH MAY LIMIT BIG WARM UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME DEGREE OF MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

GFS STRONGER WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. NAM/ECMWF WARMER AND WILL
FOLLOW THESE MODELS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD
FINALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 32F.

WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5. THEN DE AMPLIFIES A BIT
THEREAFTER. THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES INCORPORATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW. EXTENSIVE PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUN AND MON OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED GENERALLY ONE TO THREE DEGREES FOR SUN AND
DECREASE ONE TO TWO DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY INTO
THE LATE EVENING. VFR CIGS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG





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