Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200233
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
933 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Adjusted sprinkle mention as the radar returns have moved further
south. Returns have decreased and not much seems to be reaching
the ground at this point but will keep a mention in for a bit
longer. The 00Z NAM and current short range model runs continue
to keep the strong frontogenesis band well to our west so think
that anything we get overnight will be minimal and non-measurable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Currently, an upper level wave is moving east-northeast across
northern MB with a surface low just out ahead of this wave. An
occluded front is moving east across the Red River Valley this
afternoon. After a relatively warm day today, temps will cool
only into the mid 20s to low 30s tonight as high pressure builds
in over central ND. Trended on the cold side of guidance at most
locations as expecting skies to clear out late except for perhaps
the far south. Some of the high- res models have a
frontogenetical band of snow nosing in from the west into the
Valley City area late tonight. The synoptic models do have the
mid-level frontogenesis. However, they are drier and do not
support precipitation formation this far east. Have left it out
for now.

Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday as high pressure
dominates. Although some cooler air will have moved in for Monday,
temps in the 40s are expected in most areas by mid afternoon.
Winds will be relatively light from the west to northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Surface high pressure builds south southeast out of southern
Canada Monday night into Tuesday. This should bring a period of
clearing skies and steady north winds to the area. By 18Z Tuesday,
models show 850mb temps of -20C along the Canadian border to
around -10C along the SD border. This should translate to Tuesday
being the coldest day of the week, with only the far southern FA
rising above 32F during the day. Tuesday night will probably be
the coldest night too, as the surface high moves into the MN
arrowhead. This would bring the lightest winds to the Baudette to
Wadena MN corridor, and the possibility of single digit lows.

Return flow sets up Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the models
indicating spotty very light warm advection related precipitation
moving through portions of the FA. The 500mb flow pattern shifts
more southwest by Thursday, with a closed low developing over the
central plains by Friday. Along with this feature, the models bring
steadier precipitation northward, but at this point limit it mainly
to the far southern FA. It appears that surface high pressure in
Canada will try to limit how far north any of this precipitation
gets. Precipitation type could be an issue, but for the most part it
should stay in liquid form, with highs above freezing during the day
and lows right around freezing at night. It should remain mainly dry
into the weekend, with a similar mild temperature regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions continue with mid and high clouds moving across the
area. This will continue throughout the period. Winds will
increase briefly out of the west to northwest at close to 15 kts with
a frontal boundary moving through, but should settle down and even
become light and variable at some locations later tonight after
sunset. Winds will pick up again out of the west-northwest by
afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JR


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