Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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934
FXUS65 KABQ 060941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WAS OVER NEW MEXICO DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTH OF
NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL DRAW STRONGER
WINDS INTO NEW MEXICO WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AMIDST A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS NUDGING EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS JUST EAST
OF THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. TO THE WEST A 557 DECAMETER LOW AT
500 MB IS SPINNING JUST OFF OF THE COAST NEAR SANTA BARBARA. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES SOME DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER EASTERN AZ AND
MUCH OF NM WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...A PROLIFIC DRY SLOT IS ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW...WORKING OVER THE BAJA AND POISED TO INTRUDE
INTO NM FROM THE SW. THE CURRENT RIBBON OF RELATIVELY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS/DEWPOINTS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
SHOULD ERODE AWAY CONSIDERABLY TODAY...BUT A SECONDARY ONE WILL
SLOWLY TAKE SHAPE FARTHER EAST WHERE THE HIGH PLAINS INTERFACE
WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. THIS SECONDARY RIBBON OF
MEAGER MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD AID.
ALSO...STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NM TODAY WITH
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING YIELDING WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR MANY ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...INCLUDING THE ABQ METRO AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO COOL IN THE FAR WESTERN NM ZONES TODAY.

THE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NV TONIGHT...FILLING
IN SOME...AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS NORTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS. SECONDARY/TERTIARY LOBES OF VORTICITY WILL
ORBIT THE LOW AT A DISTANCE...BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AS THEY CYCLE AROUND THE MAIN LOW. WINDS
WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
KEEPING A STIFF BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT GOING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THERE IS MUCH AMBIGUITY ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SUFFICE IT
TO SAY SATURDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...GENERALLY BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES. THE DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE OVERTAKING THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WHILE SCOURING OUT ANY MOISTURE IN THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY
THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF NM WITH PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CO/WY BY
SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH CROSSING NM. THIS COULD BE A
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR US...BUT AGAIN IT IS A BIT AMBIGUOUS
AS TO WHETHER THERE IS MUCH OF A BREAK OR DEFINITION BETWEEN THE
TWO. REGARDLESS...THE COOLING TREND WILL PREVAIL...ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY. AS THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT PASSES THROUGH...THIS WOULD BE THE DAY FOR
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN NM...AT LEAST ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SINCE DOWNSLOPING WOULD LARGELY ELIMINATE CHANCES
IN THE EAST.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK INTO MONDAY WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. ANY REMNANT SHOWERS WOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHERN ZONES...NAMELY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE REBOUNDING...BUT STILL SHY OF SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST ZONES.
A SOMEWHAT PERTURBED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT TO KICK
PRECIPITATION OFF IN THE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. THERE IS MORE AREAL
COVERAGE OF STRONG WINDS/LOW HUMIDITIES THAN THE WARNING WOULD
SUGGEST. WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT INCLUDING THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF AS THE EASTERN PORTION WOULD
LIKELY NOT MEET THE CRITERIA DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH AND LESS
WIND...BUT IN THE END DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ZONE OUT OF THE WARNING.

THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
NORTH AND EAST BUT NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SECONDARY LOW SWINGS OVER
NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION APPEAR GREATEST OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SECONDARY LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL BY SUNDAY THEN WARM
TO NEAR AVERAGE TUESDAY AND REMAIN MORE OR LESS NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE POOR FROM THE RGV
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND TO THE PECOS VALLEY. THE AREA OF
POOR RECOVERIES SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

DECIDED TO LEAVE THE SATURDAY FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTACT FOR
NOW...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 103 AND 107 MAY ALSO SEE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF SO SHORTER TERM FORECAST
TRENDS CAN BE EVALUATED. WHILE THERE IS A STRONG WIND/LOW RH COMBO
INDICATED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PARTICULARLY THE EAST CENTRAL AGAIN
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SOME GENERALLY LOW POPS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY UNDER A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THERE MAY BE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE GFS SUGGESTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD MATERIALIZE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NM OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PROGRESSES.
NONETHELESS...AT LEAST ONE MODEL BRINGS SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SUNRISE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO RAMP UP ON FRIDAY MORNING. BY
AFTN...GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40KT WILL BE COMMON. THOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FRI EVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE FRI NIGHT.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  77  42  62  37 /   5   5  20  10
DULCE...........................  73  32  57  29 /  10  20  30  20
CUBA............................  74  33  59  32 /  10  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  70  36  59  33 /   5   5  20  10
EL MORRO........................  66  30  55  30 /  10   0  10   5
GRANTS..........................  74  33  61  31 /   5   0   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  68  35  60  32 /   5   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  76  41  68  39 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  69  29  52  26 /  10  20  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  71  46  59  41 /   5   5   5   5
PECOS...........................  75  39  63  32 /  10  20   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  36  60  30 /  10  10  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  64  32  52  22 /  10  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  29  55  19 /  10  20  10   0
TAOS............................  76  38  61  30 /  10  10   5   0
MORA............................  71  41  62  33 /  10  20   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  80  45  68  38 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  76  43  64  36 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  41  66  35 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  80  46  68  43 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  82  48  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  84  45  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  45  71  43 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  83  45  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  82  46  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  84  47  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  42  65  36 /   5   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  79  44  67  38 /   5   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  79  38  67  31 /   5  10   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  75  41  64  36 /  10  20   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  77  44  66  38 /   5  10   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  82  47  71  42 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  76  43  65  39 /  10  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  77  40  68  34 /  10  20   0   0
RATON...........................  80  42  70  36 /  10  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  80  40  73  37 /  10  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  41  67  35 /  10  20   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  83  49  78  43 /  10  10   0   0
ROY.............................  78  45  72  38 /  10  20   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  87  53  81  46 /  10  20   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  85  50  77  43 /  10  20   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  90  55  84  46 /  10  20   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  86  52  84  47 /  10  10   0   5
PORTALES........................  87  55  85  49 /  10  10   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  54  81  46 /  10  20   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  93  52  88  47 /  10  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  89  49  79  43 /  10  20   0   0
ELK.............................  82  48  72  41 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ104-108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ106-107-109.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-505>508-515-519>521-524-527>529.

&&

$$

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