Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 310541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
GAP WINDS PRODUCING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY ALL AREAS...PARTICULARLY
OVER WESTERN NM. MID CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER 21Z ACROSS THE WEST
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER. A FEW GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF THE CONT DVD BY LATE DAY AND PUSH QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VIRGA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LCL WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE TOWARD MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH SHOWER CHANCES OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD NOW. WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR
FRONT HUNG UP ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST TX OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL TO COLD
NIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKY.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SINK SEWD OVERNIGHT
AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO BRING UP LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY HALLOWEEN DAY AND NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF NAM12 RUNS FOCUS AND
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS NEAR DULCE WEST ALONG
AND NEAR THE SAN JUAN RIVER WESTWARD TO FARMINGTON. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND THE FACT THAT THE LOCAL 5KM WRF IS SIMILAR WITH ITS PLACEMENT
OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND MORESO SUNDAY.

GFS AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE SUNDAY. LATEST
RUNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...CLOSING OFF A
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NM SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL AREAS SUNDAY BUT
LATEST ECMWF IS AROUND 6HRS SLOWER AND THEREFORE DID NOT BUY TOTALLY IN
TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL CHANCES THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO
THE TIMING DISCREPANCIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP AS NM
REMAINS IN THE WARM SWLY FLOW SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 6500FT MONDAY MORNING OVER NRN AND WRN NM.
VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL NEAR OR ABOVE 10K FT.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NRN NM MONDAY.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR THE NRN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED.

A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST CENTRAL NM WITH ENCROACHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AZ. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME
BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A
SLIGHT BUMP UP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES BECOME FAIR TO GOOD.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
DRY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE
GOOD FRIDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WEST AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE SECOND AND MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
ALOFT. ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FAR NE PLAINS. VENT
RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT SATURDAY...THOUGH A
REDUCTION IN MIXING HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL NM COULD CAUSE SOME POOR
VALUES ALONG OR NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN...BECOMING NEAR NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL DETACH FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND DIG SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY
AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY...FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...INCLUDING SOME HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST...BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST.

MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LAST DISTURBANCE...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST. GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A FASTER
SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH
DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWN
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING WELL BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES SHOULD
TREND DOWN FROM SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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