Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201117 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The second in a pair of upper level disturbances is quickly shifting
east and should be exiting New Mexico shortly. Associated showers
have mostly left the state with just a few trailing weaker showers
lingering. Remnant moisture could briefly leave behind MVFR/IFR
ceilings through dawn across the east central to southeastern plains
of New Mexico. Skies will then undergo a clearing trend thereafter
with stronger west southwest flow mixing down to the surface this
afternoon. Occasional gusts of 25 to 35 kt will be common by mid to
late afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017...
Breezy to locally windy condtions will develop today, ahead of a
storm system moving east through the Great Basin. The associated
cold front is forecast to move through western New Mexico late
tonight and through central and eastern areas Saturday. This system
is moisture starved and is only expected to bring a slight chance of
showers near the Colorado border tonight. High temperatures Saturday
will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler across the northwest half and 5 to
10 degrees cooler elsewhere. Dry northwest flow aloft along with
temperatures slightly above average for late October will remain the
rule through much of next week.


Showers and thunderstorms just about out of the forecast area early
this morning. A few showers linger over southeast Chaves and
Roosevelt Counties as well as across the northwest third of the state.
Expect these showers to shift ewd today as much drier air aloft
moves in from the west. Upstream upper level trough now coming
ashore over the PACNW and northern CA. This feature is quite moisture
starved and is expected to result in breezy to locally windy
condtions most areas today through Saturday along with a noticeable
cool down on Saturday, especially across the northwest half.
Temperatures on Sunday rebound to near average levels for late

Dry northwest flow aloft then stakes out a claim over NM for much of
next week. Models agree that a dry backdoor cold front will drop into
eastern NM Monday night and then push westward Tuesday morning.
Cooler conditions result Tuesday, especially east. Temperatures
rebound Wednesday before another, stronger, upper level trough and
associated cold front move through late-day Thursday into Thursday
night. GFS and ECMWF develop precip (snow above about 7500 feet
across northeast quarter) from the central mountain chain ewd
Thursday night. ECMWF is farther west with the upper level trough and
therefore more gung-ho with precip across central and eastern NM
Thursday night and Friday. Good model agreement continues into next
weekend with mainly dry northwest flow aloft remaining over the
Rockies as an upper level high/ridge remains anchored along the West



As the disturbances aloft exit to the east, precipitation will
continue to wane in NM early this morning. Drier west southwest flow
will fill in behind the departing waves with the stronger flow aloft
mixing surface-ward with gusts of 35 to 45 mph being common late
this afternoon, especially in the west central to northwestern
highlands and also in the northeastern highlands and Sangres.
Breezes will be lighter, but still occasionally gusty in lower
elevations and other sheltered areas today. While the flow will be
drier, it is not expected to drop the minimum RH to critical values
this afternoon. Good ventilation rates are expected in most zones
this afternoon with the breezy to windy conditions.

The next trough rolling inland off of the Pacific will keep stronger
winds aloft buffeting some NM ridge tops tonight into early
Saturday. As the colder air associated with the trough and frontal
passage knocks daytime highs back several degrees, it will also keep
RH elevated above critical thresholds, despite rapidly lowering
dewpoints. Excellent smoke dispersion/ventilation rates will be
widespread Saturday amidst the brisk west northwest winds in the
wake of the trough/frontal passage. Saturday night will be a chilly
one with mostly clear skies and decreasing winds in most zones. Some
sheltered areas immediately along the middle Rio Grande valley could
observe freezing temperatures that could initiate or hasten the
curing of fuels for the fall season.

Once conditions settle on Sunday, the cooler and more tranquil
airmass will be a fairly stagnant one with low vertical mixing
heights and poor ventilation rates. Otherwise the seasonal
temperatures and light breezes would be welcome on Sunday. With the
upper level pattern amplifying sharply into early next week, the
northwesterly flow over NM will inevitably be wrought with back door
frontal passages. A weak push on Monday will be reinforced Monday
night with another front advertised on Thursday, possibly
accompanied by scant precipitation. These fronts will offer periodic
setbacks amidst the tendency to warm above normal, and consequently
humidity will be moderated some.




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