Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200556 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

An active monsoon burst period can be expected for at least the next
24 hours and just beyond with aviation wx impacts becoming widespread
especially after midday Sunday. For the remainder of the overnight
into Sunday AM, latest high resolution modeling and radar/satellite
observational trends suggest most of the SHRA/TSRA activity remaining
focused near/south of a Quemado to Socorro to Ruidoso to Roswell
line. Meanwhile, a tropical wave embedded within the strengthening
monsoon plume will very slowly drift northward into central areas of
the state later Sunday. This will promote widespread SHRA/TSRA
development with locally heavy rainfall accompanied by rapid MVFR/IFR
incursions and isolated instances of potentially strong downburst
winds and bursts of small hail. Areas east of the Divide to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain will be favored Sunday early to
mid- afternoon before a general eastward expansion commences during
the evening. Less coverage for the far west to include KGUP and KFMN.
TSRA impacts for ABQ area terminals likely between 20Z and 01Z. KJ


.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017...
Showers and storms increasing over New Mexico today is the first
sign of deeper moisture returning to the state. A subtropical wave
will move northward over New Mexico Sunday and generate numerous
showers and storms through Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding will favor central and eastern New Mexico. A
slight downtick in storm coverage is expected Monday. A back door
frontal boundary will then slide down the plains Tuesday and lead to
another surge in storm activity. The wet pattern may continue for
Wednesday and Thursday depending on the placement of another upper
wave moving north from Mexico. Temperatures through the week will
remain below normal in this pattern.


The PWAT value of 0.84" on the 12Z KABQ RAOB basically doubled the
00Z value of 0.41". The 12Z KABQ surface dewpoint was 13 degrees
higher than yesterday morning. This increase in moisture is quite
evident from the latest radar trends in and around the high terrain.
Showers and storms will continue to fire up thru late today as
convective outflows interact over nearby valleys and highlands. The
latest HRRR/RUC and 00Z SPC SSEO indicate the main focus will shift
south of I-40 after 6 pm. There are also indications the approaching
subtropical wave over southwestern NM and southeastern AZ will begin
to spread rain/storms northward overnight toward Catron, Socorro,
and Lincoln counties.

The NAM and GFS are still at odds regarding the timing and placement
of the main forcing in association with the upper wave Sunday. The
NAM is very bullish with numerous showers and storms shifting north
over much of central and western NM while the GFS focuses the main
axis of storms east of the central mountain chain. In either scenario
PW values increase above 1.2" so locally heavy rainfall is likely
with possible flash flooding from any storm. The location of the main
precip shield by Sunday night will have a big impact on the amount
of cloud cover lingering over NM for the solar eclipse Monday. At
this time it appears there will be at least breaks in cloud cover
over central and western NM while the east stays cloudy most of the
day. This cloud cover may also limit the degree of instability and
coverage of showers and storms later in the day.

12Z models still show a back door frontal boundary shifting south
thru eastern NM Tuesday as surface high pressure strengthens behind
a departing upper trough over the northern plains. This will help
focus another round of showers and storms with heavy rainfall over
much of NM.

Active weather will continue through at least Thursday as an upper
wave ejects northeastward from southern California and the upper
high slides east toward west Texas. Model PW values in this pattern
range from 1.2" within central NM to around 1.6" over the eastern
plains. Confidence on the coverage of showers and storms into late
week is decreasing as the H5 high center strengthens to near 595dm
over the Four Corners region. This pattern will still be favorable
for moisture recycling and slow-moving storms with locally heavy



Deep subtropical moisture will continue to increase from the south
tonight and especially Sunday and Sunday night as a subtropical wave
over northwest Mexico moves up between a weak upper low off the
southern CA coast and an upper level high over southeast TX.
Scattered convection this afternoon and evening will give way to
numerous showers and thunderstorms for all but the far northwest
corner of the state Sunday into Sunday night. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will decrease somewhat Monday as sinking air
behind the departing wave moves overhead. Still, plenty of low level
moisture to work with for scattered showers and storms all areas
Monday afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday, a backdoor front gets into the mix, triggering showers
and storms over the northern mountains and along and east of the
central mountain chain. GFS and ECWMF forecasts depart with one
another with regard to Wednesday. GFS brings up another strong
subtropical wave up from the south while the ECMWF keeps convection
active over NM but has no such wave.

Plentiful low level moisture will remain in place Thursday and
Friday for average rounds of showers and thunderstorms for mid to
late August. Both the ECMWF and GFS build the Four Corners high up
for next weekend, sending backdoor fronts into the state from
eastern CO.





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