000
FXUS65 KABQ 100452
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF N
CENTRAL NM THOUGH AMTS WILL GENERALLY TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
WITH A FEW ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWS POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LESS DOWN LOWER. KEPT S CENTRAL AND SW MTNS WATCH GOING AS IS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO S ON PCPN AND
STORM TRACK WITH NEXT SYSTEM...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE THREAT FOR NOW.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010...
TRICKY FORECAST UPCOMING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW
ENHANCEMENT BUILDING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE
IMPACTS FROM AN INCREASING JET ARE BEING FELT. WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS
AND POINTS NORTH TONIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS SAW NOTHING
BUT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP INSULATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO NOT
DROP OFF THAT MUCH.

COMPLEX SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER CUTOFF LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF REALLY THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT HAS
SHOWN CONSISTENCY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINS
A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS IN A FAVORABLE ZONE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE
NAM-WRF AND GFS HAVE REVERTED TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM FOR THE 18Z RUNS WHICH FOR THE NAM-WRF IS A REVERSAL FROM
THE 12Z RUN. IF THE SOUTHERN TREND IS CORRECT...MUCH LESS SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SURROUNDING WFOS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ARE ISSUING WATCHES AND PER COLLABORATION AND
IN HOUSE COORDINATION...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH
FROM 01Z THURSDAY TO 18Z THURSDAY. WILL ISSUE PRODUCT BY 4 PM MST.
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WILL CONTINUE SPS ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL HIGHER. INITIALLY...SHOULD SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COLD CORE
AND NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD USHER COLDER AIR INTO THE PLAINS. WENT
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A WARM NOSE JUST OFF THE DECK WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A
LIGHT FRZ RA/SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE EARLY ON. KEPT IT SIMPLE IN THE
GRID DOMAIN WITH ALL SNOW THURSDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
LOOKING LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE AS SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE ONLY A
MILD DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHANCE
POPS AS INHERITED ATTM.

TEMPORARY PATTERN SHIFT INDICATED IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LESS IN THE WAY
OF WINTRY WEATHER. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
EXTENDED.

KW

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAINS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. WDSPRD MVFR AND LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND BR/FZFG TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA THROUGH 11Z WED. IN ADDITION...WDLY SCT MAINLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS -SHRASN WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WRN
AND NRN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 11Z WED

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW
CENTERED VICINITY SAN FRANCISCO THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK ALONG
CALIFORNIA COAST AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
OLD MEXICO THURSDAY.

NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD.
VENTILATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE POOR TO ONLY
MARGINALLY GOOD MANY LOCALES NORTH AND EAST.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. SNOW MAY
FALL AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE GILA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW.

EXTENDED FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND..LEAVING NEW MEXICO UNDER GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-526.

&&

$$

43