Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 192333
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
433 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND BEYOND
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY... BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND MUCH MORE-SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A MAINLY
DRY STORM SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS MID- WEEK
AND BEYOND NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK
AND WHETHER OR NOT A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK WAVE IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN AZ
APPROACHES. MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONGER...TRAILING SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. STILL EXPECTING A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO THE LOW/VORT CENTER. FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO NWLY SATURDAY AND LEE SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE...RESULTING IN WLY AFTERNOON BREEZES MOST AREAS.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO TWO FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS AIMED AT NM FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL INDUCE SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TX BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. THIS SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH A 45-55KTS AT 700MB TO CREATE
QUITE THE BLUSTERY COUPLE OF DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOWS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FROM THE TUSAS AND NWRN JEMEZ MOUNTAINS/SAN
PEDRO PEAKS BOTH DAYS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS
THIS AIRMASS HAS TO CROSS SEVERAL MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGES BEFORE IT
REACHES THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WIND AND COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE TWO FEATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE OVERALL NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS EWD TUESDAY...WITH
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNING.

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER BEYOND TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW
NEAR HAWAII MONDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN LEND MORE CREDENCE TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION OR SOME FORM OF A TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE SOME WARMING THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND THEN COOLING A BIT AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION TO ERODE SOMEWHAT
CREATING SIMILAR RH TREND...SOME INCREASE END OF THE WEEK THEN A
MODEST TO MODERATE DECREASE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. VENTILATION WILL
TREND UP SOME MOST AREAS THEREAFTER. PRIMARILY A DRY FORECAST
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BLEEDING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL STREAK OVER
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU AND AGAIN LATE THU BUT...BEING
MOISTURE STARVED...WILL BE UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP. BUT RH
VALUES WILL RISE SOME. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO RISE DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE STABLE LAYER ALOFT..HELPING BOOST VENT RATES.
SURFACE WIND TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY...BUT NOT A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUE.

STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON FRI...MOVING THRU TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE STATE. VENT RATES WILL COME UP TO FAIR TO LOCALLY VERY GOOD
ACROSS THE WEST THU...A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE EAST. VERY SLIM NON
WETTING SHOWER CHANCES FAR WEST AND PERHAPS SOUTH LATE FRI AFTN AND
FRI NIGHT...NEXT TO NO CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND
TRANSPORT WIND FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
TRANSPORT WINDS LIKELY SHOWING THE MOST POTENT INCREASE. THIS WILL
BRING UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
DRAMATICALLY SAT AMD SUN...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS...THEN
LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY TUE. MTN WAVE ACTIVITY A PRETTY GOOD BET TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS MT TAYLOR AREA...MOST LIKELY
PEAKING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AIRMASS THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN
WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY...ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND DOWN A
BIT...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HAINES VALUES MAY CLIMB TO A 5
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS MON...MAKING THIS
PERHAPS OF A LITTLE HEIGHTENED CONCERN...HOWEVER THE HIGHER HAINES
VALUES LOOKING MORE DISPLACED NOW FROM THE GUSTIER WINDS FARTHER
WEST ALONG THE LEE OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
STILL NOT VERY LIKELY BUT SOME MEASURABLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTH SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON OR MON NIGHT.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR KLVS AND KTCC WHICH WILL
SEE WINDS INTO THE 5-10KT RANGE AFTER 5Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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