Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 130853
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
253 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will favor central areas of the state
today. Very dry air aloft will make it tough for storms to develop
across northern New Mexico this afternoon. The one exception will be
across the northeast highlands and northeast plains where enough low
level moisture will remain for isolated strong to perhaps severe
afternoon and evening storms. Dry west winds will make it difficult
for showers and storms over the northwest quarter of the state
Monday. Isolated activity is expected elsewhere. Dry west winds will
continue Tuesday through Thursday, keeping storm chances mainly
across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated elevated convection continuing over northeast NM early this
morning as a 60kt wind speed maxima remains over southern CO and far
northern NM. This same speed max will shift south somewhat and
result in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across far northeast
and east- central NM this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere on the
southern end of the wly wind max, scattered showers and storms will
develop this afternoon and move east at a good clip (~30kt). NAM12
continues to bring single digit RH values at 500mb over northwest and
north- central NM this afternoon, making it pretty tough for any
developing saturated updrafts to survive. Lowered shower/thunderstorm
chances across the northern mountains as a result of this very dry
air aloft.

Dry west winds at all levels associated with a broad upper level
trough moving ewd through the intermountain west take their toll
Monday and especially beyond. West winds start to scour out low level
moisture from the northwest quarter of the state Monday and across
the western two thirds Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will be hard to come by west of the central
mountain chain Tuesday through Friday. A backdoor front is forecast
to drop into eastern NM Friday as the above mentioned broad trough
slides east, likely leading to more widespread convection across
eastern NM and potentially sending low level moisture west of the
central mountain chain Friday night. Meanwhile, the subtropical/Four
Corners high begins rebuilding over southern NM Friday. ECMWF and to
a lesser extent the GFS send the upper high ewd over TX next
weekend. Both models bring an ely wave up from the southwest on day
9.

High temperatures are forecast to be near average for mid August
while low temperatures will likely be below average with the dry air
moving in this week. Low temperatures flirting with the freezing
mark are possible in the Moreno Valley (Eagle Nest and Angel Fire)
Tuesday through Thursday mornings.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Once again, high dewpoints amidst the moist atmosphere and recent
wetting storms have yielded excellent humidity recovery early this
morning. A few showers are struggling to sustain themselves at this
hour, mainly in northeast NM, and areas of low clouds and fog have
also developed in the high humidity environment within east central
to northeastern parts of the state. A disturbance aloft in UT is
currently shifting east into CO, and this is expected to ignite
storms, some of which may clip the far northeast corner of NM later
today. Slightly drier air will hang back in north central to
northwestern NM, but still most other zones are expected to observe
scattered, if not numerous, showers and thunderstorms by late in the
day. Any storms that develop in the eastern plains will have the
potential to quickly turn strong to severe with large hail, gusty
downburst winds, and heavy downpours. Temperatures will warm a few
degrees in most areas this afternoon, bringing readings close to
seasonal averages. This afternoon minimum relative humidity will be
lowest, close to 20 percent, in the Four Corners region, but
elsewhere readings should stay within a 30 to 50 percent range.

High pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will re-situate
itself over the Gulf Coast by Monday, staying more-or-less anchored
for much of the rest of the week. Also on Monday, an upper level
trough will move inland over the Great Basin in NV. Some drier air
aloft will precede this upper feature, filtering into the
northwestern and west central NM Monday. As the trough ejects a
short wave toward the Rockies, it will send more drier air into
western and central NM into Tuesday. Storm potential will
consequently be reduced some in the far west on Monday, but more-so
across central and western NM on Tuesday. In addition, moderate
westerly breezes will return while dewpoints lower into the 30`s and
minimum RH falls back to the 15 to 25 percent range for many zones.
Haines indices will also climb to 4 and 5 in much of the
northwestern half of NM by Tuesday afternoon.

As the aforementioned short wave trough overtakes the Rockies and
moves into the Great Plains during the middle of the week, the drier
air will be transported farther east, reducing storm chances more.
For the remainder of the week, temperatures will stay within a few
degrees of normal for mid August. A couple of weak back door fronts
are advertised to flirt with the northeast quadrant of the state,
one on Wednesday and another Thursday night into Friday. Any
moisture rebounds from these fronts will be confined to fairly small
spatial areas of northeastern NM, but could help with regenerating
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorm activity has been decreasing over northern and central
New Mexico, but a few stray cells may continue to develop over and
east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, and activity in southeast
Colorado may even wander into far northeast New Mexico. Otherwise
the overnight concern will be lowering ceilings and visibility in
status/fog. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected, mainly along and
east of the central mountain chain with the lowest ceilings likely
over the northeast highlands. This will burn off through the late
morning with another round of scattered to numerous showers and
storms redeveloping Sunday afternoon. Some strong to severe cells are
expected east of the central mountain chain with large hail, gusty
downburst winds, and heavy downpours. Elsewhere the downpours and
brief stints of MVFR conditions are expected to be the primary
concerns Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  60  88  61 /  10  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  81  50  81  51 /  20  10  10  20
Cuba............................  82  56  81  55 /  30  20  30  20
Gallup..........................  84  57  83  54 /  50  30  20  20
El Morro........................  79  53  78  51 /  60  30  20  20
Grants..........................  83  56  83  53 /  60  30  20  20
Quemado.........................  79  56  79  55 /  40  30  30  20
Glenwood........................  86  63  86  61 /  40  20  20  20
Chama...........................  76  49  76  49 /  20  20  20  20
Los Alamos......................  81  58  81  57 /  40  20  60  20
Pecos...........................  81  56  82  56 /  20  20  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  76  51  76  51 /  20  30  20  20
Red River.......................  68  45  68  44 /  40  30  20  20
Angel Fire......................  73  43  74  43 /  30  20  20  20
Taos............................  81  52  81  52 /  20  20  20  20
Mora............................  79  53  78  52 /  30  20  40  20
Espanola........................  87  61  87  61 /  20  20  40  20
Santa Fe........................  82  58  82  57 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  86  59  86  58 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  63  89  62 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  66  90  65 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  63  92  63 /  20  30  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  65  91  64 /  30  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  93  61  93  63 /  20  30  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  90  65  90  63 /  20  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  89  67  89  65 /  40  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  59  83  58 /  30  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  86  57  86  56 /  20  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  54  87  53 /  30  30  20  20
Clines Corners..................  84  56  84  56 /  30  40  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  85  60  85  59 /  40  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  87  63  87  63 /  30  30  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  80  57  79  57 /  70  40  50  30
Capulin.........................  78  54  80  55 /  50  40  30  30
Raton...........................  83  55  84  55 /  30  30  20  30
Springer........................  84  56  85  57 /  20  30  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  54  82  55 /  20  20  20  20
Clayton.........................  82  58  84  60 /  20  40  20  30
Roy.............................  82  58  84  59 /  20  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  90  65  91  66 /  20  30  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  91  63  91  64 /  30  30  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  93  65  94  67 /  20  30  10  30
Clovis..........................  88  65  89  65 /  20  30  10  30
Portales........................  88  66  89  67 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  90  66  90  67 /  20  30  20  30
Roswell.........................  95  70  95  68 /  20  30  20  30
Picacho.........................  87  65  86  64 /  50  40  50  30
Elk.............................  82  62  81  60 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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