Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 091736 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1036 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR all areas the next 24 hrs with light winds beneath a strong
ridge of high pressure centered over CA. KSAF will see northerly
drainage winds develop again tonight aft 10Z w/ peak gusts up to
15 kts.



.PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017...
After a couple of relatively cold days, a warming trend will kick
into high gear today as daytime temperatures rise above normal
areawide with plenty of sunshine. The warming will continue into
early week as a large and dominant ridge of high pressure strengthens
over the Intermountain West. A weak backdoor cold front will provide
some cooling late Monday into Tuesday. A stronger cold front will
move through late Wednesday and provide some cooling going into
Thursday. Temperatures will rebound quickly on Friday into Saturday,
especially across the Eastern Plains where downslope winds will aid
in the warming.


An increasingly dry atmosphere will prevail through the weekend and
into early next week as a stubborn omega block transitions to a rex-
type block, with the upper high portion dominating much of the
Intermountain West. PWATs are forecast to drop below 0.10" today and
stay below through at least Monday. Pressure heights are increasing
across New Mexico and will allow a warming trend to continue, with
daytime temperatures forecast above normal areawide later today. The
warming will continue Monday, but a weak backdoor front will provide
some relative cooling going into Tuesday.

A stronger backdoor cold front will push through late Wednesday into
Thursday and provide some cooling, but daytime temperatures are still
forecast to be above normal behind the front for most locales. The
00z medium range model solutions show the upper high retrograding
over the eastern Pacific ocean going into next weekend, signaling a
potential pattern change that could allow the jet stream to dip
further south across the Intermountain West and bring some more
impactful weather to the southern Rockies and New Mexico between mid
and late December.



A strong upper level ridge of high pressure anchored over California
and the PACNW will continue a very dry northerly to northwest flow
aloft over NM today through early next week. Ventilation rates will
be primarily in the poor range areawide through early next week,
despite high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.

Weather prediction models agree that the above mentioned strong
ridge will break down and shift westward into eastern Pacific Ocean
late next week, possibly allowing upper level troughs to drop in
from the northwest. The models stay dry through next weekend but do
trend temperatures down closer to seasonal averages toward the end
of the week into next weekend.





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