Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 121140 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TURBULENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER SYSTEM. SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS AOA BKN/OVC100 WILL SET UP VIRGA FOR
21Z ONWARD THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH VCSH IN
TAFS FOR FMN...GUP...ABQ...AEG...SAF...AND LVS SHOWING TIME OF
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD OF VIRGA IN PROXIMITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO HIGH
CIGS...UNLIKELY THAT MUCH RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FROM 17Z
ONWARD...WITH GUSTS CONTINUING LOCALLY AFTER 02Z SUNSET THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT SAT APR 12 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD IS ABOUT TO GET UNDERWAY FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE FIRST SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE WILL BE
THE WEAKER ONE WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO IT. SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT RAIN AND ALL OF IT LIGHT AND IN MANY
CASES NOT EVEN MEASURABLE...WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE STATE
TODAY. STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO NORTH NEW MEXICO
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO MOST OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EVEN A
LITTLE SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS WILL
INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ALSO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NM TODAY
INTO EARLY SUN. ONLY VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH AND MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF EAST...SOUTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR SOME TIME THAT AFTN HIGH
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SE HALF OF THE
FCST AREA.

THE SECOND...STRONGER...SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO NM
SUN NIGHT AND DEPART MON. A SHARP BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DOVETAIL WITH THIS STORM BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATER SUN NIGHT. PRECIPITATION LOOKS SIGNIFICANT FOR
MAINLY THE NE THIRD OF THE STATE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE...SO ONE SHOULD EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO FINAL SNOW AND RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS OR SO. WILL ISSUE SPS FOR THIS SECOND SYSTEM WITH THIS
FCST PACKAGE AND ADVISORY AND EVEN WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE MOST SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS INTO THE NE HIGHLANDS. INCREASED SNOW A LITTLE EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...BUT IN RETROSPECT IT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN
QUITE ENOUGH. PROBLEM IS THAT IN THE LOWER TERRAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF SUN EVE OR DUE TO THE RECENT WARMTH THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH...EXCEPT MAYBE ON VEGETATION AND
OTHER ELEVATED SFCS. SOME COMBO OF THE TWO SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY.
ALL THIS TO SAY THAT SNOW ACCUM FCST FOR THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE
NE THIRD IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IN THE SANGRES AS MUCH
AS 9 INCHES TO PERHAPS EVEN A FOOT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN WILL FALL WITH TENTH TO JUST OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO.
AFTER THIS STORM DEPARTS EXPECT DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH MARGINAL EXTENSIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIFFERENCES
EMERGING ON HANDLING OF INBOUND SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODELS SLIDE BACK INTO HARMONY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GOOD START PLACES WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO PLACE NEW MEXICO IN MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. WAVE WILL
MAKE SLOW TRIP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ZIPS TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS BY MONDAY...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW.
FLOW WILL BACK TO ZONAL BY LATE TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION DIGS ANOTHER
TIGHT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SWINGS THIS FEATURE EAST TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION FEATURING MUCH
LESS DRAMA...KEEPING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE CONSIDERABLY
REDUCED IN AMPLITUDE AND MUCH MORE A SHEARING FEATURE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO RATHER THAN A WAVE STRUCTURE. DESPITE DIFFERENCES...FEATURE
WILL BE WELL CLEAR OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS BAGGY TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC.
THIS OFFSHORE FEATURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
INCLUDING NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GFS SOLUTION HAS
BROAD WAVE LEADING THE ECMWF SOLUTION BY ROUGHLY 12 TO 24
HOURS...BUT COMMON THREAD OF BROAD SLOW MOVING TROUGHINESS REMAINS
IN PLAY TO GUIDE EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING.

FOR TODAY...TEMPERATURES IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS IN
THE EAST...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND EAST PACIFIC
SYSTEM...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS PCT...AND HAINES INDICES RUNNING 5 TO 6 BROADLY OVER THE
STATE WILL SET UP RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTH...AND
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDER AND LITTLE OR NO WETTING
RAINS OVER THE WEST. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...AND HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT SNOWS. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES...WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE
BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE COLORADO LINE.

FOR SUNDAY...COOL PLUNGE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ROLL SUNDAY TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL...WITH THE NORTHEAST
MOVING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AFTER UNUSUALLY WARM DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH SECONDARY PUSH INTO THE BACK DOOR OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IMPROVING INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE SOUTH...AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT OVER THE NORTH.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SPOTS OF LOW HUMIDITIES TO SET UP
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND OVER THE WEST.
SOUTHERN HAINES INDICES RUNNING TOWARD 5 AND 6...WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDER. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 40. NO VENTILATION ISSUES
WITH IMPROVING HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE FAIR TO GOOD
CATEGORY.

FOR MONDAY...STRONGER COOL PLUNGE INTO THE EAST WILL BULGE WEST AND
PENETRATE SOUTH BRINGING RAPID DROP IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS
OVER THE EAST...AND 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEST.
COLDER AIR MASS WILL DRIVE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S AND 40S
PCT OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT OVER
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK SHARPLY TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST...WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF
THE STATE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH THE LAST OF THE SNOW ENDING OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND ENDING AS LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BY MONDAY EVENING. VENTILATION DEGRADING BACK TOWARD GOOD TO
FAIR...WITH BEST CONDITIONS IN THE EXTREME EAST. FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM UP TUESDAY WILL LEVEL OFF
THOUGH THURSDAY...WITH COOL PLUNGE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION STILL A QUESTION MARK...BUT
REASONABLE DIFFERENCE SPLIT FOR NOW WILL START SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT FOCUS TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...MEETING UP WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS...AND
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 AND 6 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY FOR AN UP TICK IN
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME IMPROVED STABILITY WILL REDUCE HAINES
INDICES FOR THURSDAY...BUT BREEZES WILL STILL MEET UP WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES OVER THE SOUTH...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FEW
VENTILATION ISSUES...AND MOST OF THESE THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST.
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
WORK WEEK.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-106>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105>109.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ526.

&&

$$

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