Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160520 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1020 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Have cancelled some of the advisories/warnings for western and
southern NM as the majority of any snow accumulations there should
be diminishing. Updated WSW and ZFP products are out, and grids
sent up.


.PREV DISCUSSION...501 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017...
As the center of the upper low shifts from SE NM into the TX
panhandle tonight, widespread aviation impacts will persist across
NM. A band of rain and snow near and just west of the Rio Grande
Valley will persist and likely shift more into the valley and
impact KAEG and KABQ thru the eve. MVFR cigs with some excursions
into IFR is likely with this precip. Across eastern NM, widespread
IFR cigs/vsbys will persist with areas of snow north of I-40
persisting thru approx 12Z Monday. Mt obscurations likely thru the
overnight hours. Precip will generally wane from southwest to
northeast through early Monday. Should any area clear, or even
partially clear, before sunrise, FG or FZFG may develop.
Conditions generally improve Monday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017...
As an upper level low pressure system exits slowly northeastward
from New Mexico, cooler air will invade the state from the north
and northwest tonight lowering snow levels. A few inches of snow
accumulation is expected across the valleys and highlands of
north central and east central New Mexico, as well as the
northeast plains, tonight into Monday. The northern mountains
still look to be the big winners with a few to several additional
inches of snow expected mostly tonight. Snow is expected to
decrease in coverage and intensity Monday afternoon. Some showers
may continue Monday night and Tuesday as a secondary upper level
trough lingers over the state, but any further snow accumulation
will probably be light and favor the northern mountains. Warmer
and drier conditions are then expected through mid week, but a
couple of colder upper level weather systems are forecast to
bring additional wintry precipitation at the end of the week.


This evening the upper low will eject northeastward from the
southeast corner of NM across the TX panhandle and into OK. This
is a bit farther east than previous forecast tracks. Perhaps as a
result, models have weakened the trowal that was forecast to
persist over northern and western NM through tonight and Monday.
Only an inch or two of additional snow accumulation is now expected
over the Chuska, west central and southwest mountains tonight, and
most of that will probably come this evening. So, the evening
shift may opt to cancel the Winter Storm Warning early across
these zones.

The lingering upper trough is forecast to form a closed low over
northwest Mexico Tuesday, but moisture will be lacking over NM by
then. It could draw a moist low level return flow into southeast
NM as it crosses Tuesday night and Wednesday, which could lead to
some precipitation over southeast and east central areas, but
models are not agreeing very well on this possibility yet. A ridge
of high pressure will cross as the secondary upper low exits
northeastward on Thursday.

The end of the coming week looks active. A colder upper level
trough crosses from the west with rain and snow over central and
western areas late Thursday through Friday. GFS and ECMWF now
suggest this system may try to close off an upper level low
pressure system in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos Friday
afternoon. A stronger and colder upper level trough may then
bring more widespread precipitation during the coming weekend.



Rain and snow over the past couple days has delivered widespread
liquid precipitation amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range, especially
over the eastern plains and the upper Gila region. A secondary upper
trough lagging the main trough Tuesday will keep rain/snow showers
going through Monday. Snowfall will continue in the northern high
terrain, leading to total amounts from 8 to 20 inches. Generally
light winds and saturated soils through Tuesday morning will lead to
more fog and very high humidities. Vent rates as expected will
remain poor.

Wednesday and Thursday will bring a brief break as drier, faster
flow aloft approaches from the west and lee troughing deepens over
the eastern plains. Temps will trend closer to normal and snowmelt
will occur in mid slope elevations. Vent rates will improve in the
eastern plains to fair. More patchy fog is likely Wednesday night
with widespread moist conditions remaining in the lower boundary

The active pattern will return Friday into much of next week as a
wave train arrives from the Pacific. This next series of storm
systems will be colder and windier with much lower snow levels. The
high terrain is on target to pick up significant snowfall through
the 10 day period, ending January 2017 on a much different note than
many past years.



Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ504-516>518-522-523-528>531.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ510>515-521-527.


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