Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 140559 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible along
and southeast of a line from Tucumcari to Roswell for the remainder
of tonight through Saturday, with a few cells lingering over the far
southeast plains Saturday night. A patch or two of low clouds and fog
could produce MVFR and IFR conditions along and east of the Pecos
River and south of the Caprock early this morning. Winds will shift
out of the west and northwest today as a Pacific cold front crosses
western areas. Speeds will gust in the 25 to 40 kt range across
northern and east central parts of the forecast area. Tonight, a back
door cold front will plunge southwestward through the eastern plains
with north and northeast wind gusts in the 30 to 45 kt range close
to the TX border.



.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017...
The next 24 to 36 hours should be the most active of the next week
across the Land of Enchantment. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue across south central and southeast New Mexico through
the overnight hours. A few lucky areas may pick up a quarter of an
inch of rain. On Saturday, a Pacific cold front will slide through
the state, with it`s back door counterpart sliding through the plains
on Saturday night. All-in-all, this will result in cooler
temperatures for Sunday, especially across the plains. Thereafter,
a warm-up is in store with quiet conditions the rule.


Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across
south central and southeast NM within an axis of mid level moisture
and instability. Should see some areas of measurable precipitation
as dewpoints in this area are generally in the 50s and low 60s.
Models indicate these showers and thunderstorms will persist well
into the evening and overnight hours. This modest moisture plume
will be stretched thin as it is pushed southeastward on Saturday
from an upper level trough moving across the central Rockies.
Outside of a lingering shower across the southeast, Saturday should
be fairly quiet. However, it will be turning cooler, particularly
across the northwest, as a Pacific front moves into NM. The back
door segment of this front will move through the plains Saturday
night. Temperatures will tumble a few degrees on Saturday, but
moreso on Saturday night and Sunday along and east of the central
mountain chain. High temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 15 degrees
below normal, while areas along and west of the RGV will be within 5
degrees of normal. Additionally, a fairly weak east canyon wind is
expected Sunday morning as the back door segment of the front pushes
through, but it`s main effects will be felt just downstream of
Tijeras Canyon.

A quiet week is in store with warming temperatures expected after
Sunday. An upper level ridge will move over the state on Tuesday,
but then models differ with regards to the timing of a weak trough
moving over the state later in the week. Regardless, it doesn`t
appear much will come of it. Models do indicate, however, that it
will get more active next weekend as a large trough moves across the
western U.S.



A slug of subtropical moisture will bring mainly isolated showers
and thunderstorms to the southeast half or so of the state this
evening. Moisture lifts east out of the area tonight with a few
showers lingering across the eastern plains after midnight.
Increasing winds will be the main weather story for Saturday with an
upper level trough sliding southeastward through Wyoming and
Colorado. Winds near mountain top level peak around mid morning
Saturday so the higher peaks of the Tusas, Jemez and Sangres should
blow hardest from around sunrise to 1000 hours. Winds in the lower
elevations will peak just ahead of a surface cold front during the
early afternoon before becoming northwesterly behind the front. Much
cooler air will move in behind the front Saturday night. The
backdoor portion of the front will bring strong north winds to the
eastern plains Saturday night.

Sunday will be the coolest day of the next seven with temperatures
10 to 15 degrees  below average for mid October across the east and
near average to 5 degrees below central and west. A warm up gets
underway Monday under northwest flow aloft. Models agree that a
ridge will move overhead Tuesday, likely keeping vent rates from
improving despite warming temperatures. GFS and ECMWF now differ on
how the two upper lows in the eastern Pacific behave late next week.
Both models continue to indicate a more active weather pattern for
NM at the end of next week and beyond.





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