Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 221131 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
Mid level clouds will continue to slowly diminish through early
morning. Less shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected this
aftn/eve compared to Thursday but will continue to favor the high
terrain. Storms across northern NM will drift to the E or NE.
Elsewhere, motions will be slow and erratic. Brief MVFR vsbys will
be possible with locally heavy rain under the strongest cores.
Gusty outflow winds will be likely with gusts near 35kt possible.
.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016...
Overall active pattern, especially in the extended forecast. High
pressure aloft will become centered somewhere over NM today
through Sunday, with the main high moving to the northwest next
week. Showers and thunderstorms will be focused over the western
and northern areas the next few days then more of the area should
get some rain, thanks to a surge of moisture coming from the Gulf
of Mexico early next week.
A few showers and thunderstorms continue over our southwest and
northeast most areas early this morning. As the high builds over
NM today the crop of storms should be a bit less than recent days
with the main moisture plume mostly west of NM. Record highs in
the east will again be challenged or broken.
The center of the upper high will meander across northern NM this
weekend. Storm coverage Saturday and Sunday should be similar to
today, with the possible exception of the northeast where a cold
frontal boundary will be knocking on the door, which could enhance
precipitation chances there. High temperatures will remain above
normal, although they will drop a bit in the east Sunday.
All models are ramping up the moisture for next week, showing low
level southeast winds increasing and bringing in deeper Gulf of
Mexico moisture. PW`s climb to an inch or more over all but the
northwest. Monday through at least Wednesday will be active with
widespread showers and thunderstorms, some producing heavy rain
creating the possibility of flash flooding. High temperatures will
drop to near normal for much of next week.
The upper level high pressure center will shift to the northwest
during next week, although the ECMWF keeps a distinct center to
our east as well early next week. Moisture will remain mostly in
place later next week, keeping fairly widespread convection going.
The upper level high will be centered over NM by this afternoon,
though it will be elongated from east to west over the southern tier
of the U.S. This will lead to fewer storms, and fewer wetting rain
footprints, than yesterday as the best monsoonal moisture plume has
shifted to the west. This is evident by last evening`s 00Z Sounding
at ABQ where the precipitable water value dropped to 0.66" from
0.91" yesterday morning. With the high overhead, storm motions will
also be slower and more erratic. Generally, areas north of I-40
should see storms drifting to the east or northeast, while south of
I-40, storm may drift toward the west or southwest. Today will also
be quite hot, with triple digit heat yet again across much of the
plains and potentially across portions of the Rio Grande Valley.
Record heat will actually be possible for portions of the eastern
Saturday should be similar to today, especially in terms of high
temperatures and storm coverage. So, what happened to the front? The
back door cold front that was expected to push into northeast NM
will still do so, but it will barely cross the Colorado border. It
may still provide an increase in storm coverage across NE NM
compared to today, but this will depend some on storm interactions
and outflow boundary collisions promoting additional storms.
By Sunday, the upper high should be centered near or just south of
the Four Corners. However, relatively low pressure at the surface
near the same area will result in low level southeasterly flow,
which should begin to draw up Gulf moisture into the area. This may
mean a slight uptick of storms across the southwest mountains and
central mountain chain as well as the eastern plains if remnant
It looks to get more active early next work week as low level
moisture from the Gulf continues to be pulled into NM as the upper
high shifts west over the Great Basin. PWATS should increase to near
or just above 1 inch across central NM with even higher values
across the east. Monday through at least Wednesday look active in
terms of convective coverage, with some heavy rains possible.
Strongest winds throughout the week will be associated with
thunderstorm downdrafts and outflow boundaries. Humidities will
likely be the lowest today and Saturday before trending upward early
next week. Still look for poor to fair vent rates across the
southwest mountains today, and across a few areas Sunday and Monday,
with more widespread poor ventilation rates Tuesday and Wednesday.