Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211809 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2016

VFR conditions will remain the rule across most of the fcst area,
however the nw third of the area may still see a few instances of
relatively brief MVFR cigs in stronger TSRA that develop this aftn
into this eve. KGUP and KFMN still have a small risk of this
occurring into this eve, but generally kept their fcst above the
MVFR category. Elsewhere there will also be isold to occasionally
sct SHRA/TSRA coverage mostly from the AZ line east to the
highlands immediately to the east of the central mt chain. Some
mt obscurations likely as well, especially over the north. The
activity will diminish to far fewer in number between 03Z and 07Z,
but a few patches of MVFR conditions could redevelop late tonight
across roughly the nw third of the fcst area along with a few
instances of mt obscurations redeveloping late also.



Increasing moisture along with daytime heating and a weak upper
level will wave will combine to produce a round of scattered aftn
and evening showers and thunderstorms for all but the far east-
central and southeast plains. The focus for showers and storms
shift slightly east on Thursday. A deep upper low dropping
southeast through the Great Basin is expected to bring showers and
storms to northwest New Mexico Friday morning and across the
remainder of the region Friday afternoon. A few of these storms
will likely become strong to possibly severe. Dry and cooler
weather remains on track for Saturday.


Remnant circulation from what was once Hurricane Paine lifting
newd through far northwest Sonora this morning. Low level
sub-tropical moisture continues to increase from the south and
southwest and as the jet speed max associated with extratropical
cyclone Paine will combine with daytime heating to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across all but the far eastern
plains this afternoon. The focus for showers and storms will shift
slightly eastward Thursday, ahead of an unseasonably deep upper
level closed low dropping sewd through the western Great Basin.
Models indicating downsloping in the lee of the Mogollon Rim will
limit shower and thunderstorm chances across far western NM

Models continue with the idea of bringing a strong south to north
oriented jet across northwest and north-central NM Friday.
Residual moisture is expected to combine with a surface cold front
and large scale ascent associated with the right rear quad of the
jet to produce a couple of lines of strong to perhaps severe
storms across the region Friday. Pseudo dryline sets up across the
eastern plains as a deep dry slot is progged to nose in from the
southwest across the central and northeast highlands. Hail and
strong outflow winds the main threat from stronger storms Friday.
Surface cold front will bring significantly cooler air to the NW
third Friday and to the NW two-thirds on Saturday.

Confidence beyond Saturday remains low with 0z model runs still
struggling mightily with how the above mentioned closed
low/trough evolves Sunday into early next week. Trended
precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday closer to the
ECMWF which has maintained a bit of run to run consistency during
the past two days.



Humidity and chances for wetting rain are trending up as tropical
moisture streams northeast over the state today, but daytime
temperatures will remain above normal.

A potent upper level low, currently over the Pacific NW, will
continue moving southeast and be positioned over the Great Basin by
Thursday. Winds throughout the atmosphere over New Mexico will be on
the uptrend as the upper low and attendant cold front approach. A
deepening lee side trough on Thursday will contribute to breezy to
locally windy conditions most areas by afternoon. Chances for
wetting rain will trend back up Friday along the cold front as it
sweeps east across the state. High temperatures behind the cold
front across western New Mexico will be below normal for a change.

Daytime temperatures will be at or below normal through the weekend
behind the cold front, especially across eastern New Mexico thanks
to a stronger backdoor push as the upper trough ejects out of the
Rockies. Chances for wetting rain over the weekend and into early
next week have generally trended down with the 00z medium range
model solutions no longer closing off the second upper low over AZ
or western NM. Wetting rain, if any, would favor eastern New Mexico
behind the stronger backdoor push. Although the medium range model
solutions differ on the exact placement of synoptic weather features
going into the middle of next week, they agree on a drying/warming
trend as daytime temperatures go back above normal.





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