Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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136
FXUS65 KABQ 240528 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1128 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SH/TS trapped within the upper high center will taper down during
the next few hours leaving isol activity by 09z. Impacts will
also lessen with each hour through early morning. Coverage and
intensity of TS will increase on Sunday. LVS is the most likely
candidate to be impacted but also banking on ABQ/AEG/GUP/SAF to
also be affected. Using VCTS/VCSH to capture this potential for
the 6z terminal forecast issuance. As we get closer timing/impacts
will be updated. Brief heavy rain creating short term vis issues
will be possible with the activity Sun with additional impacts
from outflow wind.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper high center to shift back over New Mexico this weekend,
shunting the main monsoon moisture plume into Arizona. The upper
center will continue to drift over the Great Basin next week,
helping temperatures cool in the eastern plains and allowing an
occasional cold front to bring an uptick in showers and storms. One
such front may affect the east Sunday night. Otherwise, showers and
storms will continue to be most likely over the northern and western
high terrain. High temperatures will continue to be near to above
average, but the greatest deviation from normal will shift to the
west central and northwest next week, closer to the upper high
center.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper high center to drift over NM this weekend, shunting the main
monsoon moisture plume into AZ. This afternoon`s showers and storms
were born over the northern and western higher terrain and expect
some to drift into the northeast highlands and plains this evening.
HRRR and to a lesser extent RAP13 suggest the southwest and
northeast will be the favored areas this evening.

The anticipated cold front for the northeast looks as if it might
not have much of an impact until Sunday evening. In any case, as the
upper high center drifts to the Four Corners and then Great Basin
next week, highs in the east should return to more average levels so
the recent string of near record to record breaking highs should be
history while temperatures across the west central and northwest
deviate more above the average than the rest of the forecast area.

Sunday night`s front may help push an east wind into the RGV which
may be stronger than models currently suggest, and will be partially
dependent on how convection develops to our east. Based on the upper
high location, we may see some nightly sloshes back and forth.
Models also suggest there may a weak disturbance caught in the upper
high circulation which may be the result of convection or spark some
as well, but not hanging my hat on it pop-wise. GFS and ECMWF
suggest a traditional monsoon pattern could develop at 240 hrs as
the upper high drifts back to our east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The center of mid-level anticyclonic circulation is forecast to
drift over the SW NM/SE AZ border today. The close proximity of the
high aloft will keep temperatures sizzling with readings 4 to 12
degrees above normal this afternoon, and some new records possible
across central and eastern areas. This position of the high will
also cause the monsoon moisture plume to skirt most of NM (steering
the better moisture over AZ, SE UT and CO) with scattered to
isolated storms mainly in our northern and western mountains. Most
of these cells should drift toward the east or southeast at speeds
around 5 to 10 mph. There should be some localized areas of humidity
just below 15% at lower elevations today.

The anticyclone aloft will shift over AZ on Sunday, allowing a moist
back door cold front into our northeast and east central plains, and
tilting the elevated monsoon moisture plume more squarely over NM.
This will induce an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage,
especially along the central mountain chain and northeastward across
east central and northeast areas.

The anticyclonic circulation aloft is then forecast to quickly
reform around the OK/KS border for Monday and Tuesday, and a moist
low-level return flow will begin to pump into NM from the southeast,
causing wetting thunderstorm probabilities to trend further upward
with each day. PWATs are progged to peak Tuesday afternoon around 1
to 1.20 inches, but they will already be almost as high by late
Monday.  The potential for flooding of burn scars will be heightened
Monday and Tuesday as we approach the most climatologically favored
time of the year for flash flooding in northern and central New
Mexico.

Haines indices mainly around 5 today will trend downward with
improving low level moisture over eastern areas Sunday, then
areawide Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also trend downward
with the improving moisture Sunday through Tuesday.  Highs should
bottom out a little below normal in the west Tuesday, and up to 6
degrees above normal in the east.

The mid-level anticyclone is forecast to build and broaden over the
Great Basin during the middle to latter half of the work week. This
will cause minimum humidities over the northwest third of the
forecast area to trend downward around 10% from Tuesday`s high
readings. Elsewhere, enough low level moisture will continue to
steer into the area from the south and southeast for humidities to
be more persistent.  There may even be a fresh influx of low level
moisture across the east Wednesday night or Thursday as an upper
level trough exiting the central Rockies Wednesday sends a back door
cold front into the area.  The net effect should be a continued
plume of monsoon moisture over the forecast area through the end of
the work week, though wetting footprints may decrease some across
our northwest.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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