Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 111124 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours nearly area wide.
S to SW breezes will pick up this afternoon with gusts around 30kt at
KLVS and KTCC. Low clouds with MVFR CIGS possible after 08Z Thursday
morning in Chaves, Roosevelt and Curry Counties, impacting KCVS, KCVN
and KROW. For now, will forecast CIGS at BKN035 in the KROW TAF.


.PREV DISCUSSION...216 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017...
The warming trend continues today and will persist into Thursday with
above normal temperatures making an appearance areawide by Thursday
afternoon. However, both days will see an increase in southwesterly
winds in the afternoon, which may make it feel a little cool. Warm
temperatures will continue Friday and Saturday, but thunderstorms may
return to the east central and southeast plains Friday night. Another
cold front will arrive Saturday night, dropping temperatures back
below normal for at least northern and eastern New Mexico on Sunday.


Quiet couple of days in store across the Land of Enchantment. Both
today and Thursday will be a little breezy, particularly across the
eastern plains and around Gallup, as southwesterly flow re-
establishes itself over NM and a lee side trough strengthens over
eastern CO and northeast NM. Thursday should be a bit windier
overall thanks to better mixing. Main story though will be the
warming trend. Temperatures today will jump 5 to 15 degrees over
yesterdays readings and up to another 10 degrees Thursday. All areas
will be a few to several degrees above normal by Thursday afternoon.

Little change in temperatures are expected from Thursday to Friday.
Cloud cover may begin to increase a bit on Friday across the
southeast third of the state as southwest flow aloft pulls in mid
level moisture. Meanwhile, at the surface, low level Gulf moisture
will be pooling across the east central and southeast plains as
well.  This could spell isolated to scattered thunderstorms late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening across these areas.

The moisture won`t be around for long. An upper level trough will
race across the central Rockies on Saturday ushering a dry slot over
NM. Temperatures on Saturday may drop a degree or two, but the
bigger cool down in expected on Sunday. A strong back door cold
front associated with the aforementioned upper trough will quickly
plow through the plains Saturday night and should push westward
through the gaps of the central mountain chain early Sunday morning.
Temperatures on Sunday will drop back below normal for much of
northern and eastern NM.

Early next week, the GFS continues to try to bring up more low level
moisture, but the ECMWF is persistently pessimistic. Otherwise,
should be fairly quiet with temperatures warming under west to
northwest flow aloft.



High pressure aloft is centered in the southeast U.S. while a closed
low is along the Washington/British Columbia border. Broad southwest
flow is in between, providing NM with dry and warmer conditions the
next couple of days. Winds will be on the increase, with breezy to
locally windy conditions over the western and central mountains into
northeast NM. Moisture will also be on the increase, especially in
the east, but it will be Friday evening before we see any shower or
thunderstorm activity, and that will be mostly confined to the East
Central Plains. High temperatures will climb noticeably today,
reaching near normal, then above normal readings are forecast for
Thursday and Friday. Ventilation rates will improve markedly with
fair to very good rates today and good to excellent rates Thursday
and Friday. Very spotty critical fire weather conditions may be
approached in the far west Thursday and again Friday, as well as the
northeast Friday.

A second storm coming into the Pacific Northwest Thursday will cross
the Great Basin Friday and across NM Saturday. This will bring in
drier air which will scour out the existing moisture. Any showers
and thunderstorms will only manage to form in Curry and Roosevelt
Counties. Moderate winds will create the potential for spotty
critical fire weather conditions from around Clines Corners to Las
Vegas. Temperatures will cool a little Saturday but still remain
above normal, excluding the northwest. Maximum vent rates will again
be good to excellent.

A potent back door cold front remains on schedule to invade the east
Saturday night, possibly reaching the Rio Grande Valley by daybreak
Sunday. Temperatures will cool most areas, especially the east. But
moisture will be lacking, resulting in dry conditions Sunday. Vent
rates will take a hit with widespread poor to fair values, owing to
mixing heights mostly below 5K feet.

A modest west to northwest flow aloft is forecast early next week as
high pressure tries to build to our south. This will keep the area
dry with near to above normal temperatures and light to moderate
wind speeds. Some return flow moisture could eek out a little
precipitation near the TX border of the East Central Plains next
Wednesday. But, don`t hold your breath!







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