Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 111712 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1111 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Upped pops just about everywhere for this afternoon and evening.
Pwat values are up over an inch on ABQ and adjacent 12Z soundings,
and upslope flow forecast this afternoon and evening. Steering flow
is a bit brisk but short term models gung-ho for coverage. In
addition, satellite imagery indicates a disturbance may be tracking
over the forecast area from sw to ne. All in all, locally heavy rain
a good possibility. Updated ZFP has been transmitted and grids
published.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...546 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

Moisture is seeping into New Mexico from the subtropics and also from
a back door front in northeastern parts of the state. Through late
morning western New Mexico will observe scattered showers with some
patches of lower clouds hanging around the far northeastern corner of
the state. Heftier shower and thunderstorm activity should take
shape this afternoon over the western and northern mountains of New
Mexico, eventually rolling northward and eastward into adjacent
lowlands into the evening and overnight. Expect strong to severe
storms with heavy downpours reducing visibility/ceiling to MVFR
status while hail and gusty downburst winds will also be a concern,
especially along/east of the central mountain chain. More persistent
low clouds and fog will then likely develop after midnight with MVFR
to LIFR conditions, especially in east central to northeastern parts
of the state.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017...

.SYNOPSIS...
Backdoor front coupled with a decent monsoon flow west will allow for
numerous to widespread showers and storms today over much of New
Mexico. Temperatures will be well below average across the NE plains
today. Afternoon storm activity looks to continue through the
weekend, before a drying trend begins to kick in for early to middle
of next week. Temperatures begin to climb above average area wide by
mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor front has pushed into the NE plains tonight, and will
push all the way through the central mtns before washing out with
temps trending below average behind the front. This will produce
upslope flow along the eastern slopes of the central mtns today, and
combined with increased monsoon flow in the west will allow for a
healthy crop of afternoon storms over NM today. Numerous storms
training over the same areas will allow for increased flash flood
potential over the central mtns and central valley locales. Storm
activity likely to continue well into the overnight hours tonight
into early Saturday morning. A few storms could become severe over
the NE plains later in the afternoon and evening, producing strong
downburst winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

Saturday forecast PoPs take a split between the NAM12 and GFS with
the NAM12 bullish on spread and early timing of storm initiation. The
GFS looks to bring in some drier air with westerly flow aloft over
the NW and delays start of storms to the late afternoon/evening.
Given the NAM12`s tendency to overdue PoPs lately, forecast might
even be a bit more optimistic for Saturday.

A couple more weak backdoor bdries look to make their way into NE
New Mexico Sunday and Monday, but not as strong as today`s backdoor
push. Sunday will keep a decent crop of storms going across the state
with remnant sfc moisture remaining. Models continue to bring in a
trough into the Pacific NW, with the upper high staying south and
east of NM. This looks to set up drier westerly flow aloft, which
will in turn significantly drop rain chances for next week,
especially over the west. With the near even split and hit and miss
of monsoon rain totals across New Mexico so far this summer, the
stretch of dryness models are depicting for next week could mean more
areas start to trend below average for rain totals. Daytime highs
trend back to normal by the end of the weekend, and above average
east by middle of next week. Overnight lows look to remain a few to
several degrees above normal through the forecast period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Subtropical moisture continues to creep northward into central and
western NM early this morning with scattered showers persisting.
Meanwhile in northeastern NM, moisture is getting somewhat recharged
as a back door front slides southward and westward. Also of note, a
short wave trough over northern AZ is expected to slide eastward
over NM late today and tonight. All of these elements will set the
stage for scattered to widespread storms over the majority of the
forecast area today and tonight with some of the stronger storms
capable of heavy downpours along with the threat of training, i.e.
storms repeatedly moving over the same local area. Along and east of
the central mountain chain of NM, storms could turn strong to severe
with hail and gusty outflows. Temperatures will trend a few degrees
cooler today with the arrival of the front and the increased clouds
and precipitation, and minimum humidity will be notably higher this
afternoon in most zones. Storms will likely persist well into the
overnight hours tonight with excellent RH recovery across all of
northern and central NM through Saturday morning.

Into Saturday and Sunday, the disturbance aloft will exit NM with
high pressure aloft stretching across Chihuahua and south TX.
Moisture will remain plentiful for scattered to numerous showers and
storms in most of the forecast area. Temperatures  will rebound a
few degrees through the weekend, but will still stay near to
slightly below climatology for mid August, and RH values in the late
afternoon will generally remain fairly high between 30 to 50
percent.

Forecast models are not exactly definitive about another back door
cold front to northeastern NM late Sunday or Monday, but there is
potential for a weak wind shift in the plains. This might provide a
focus for storm development in the east while storms decrease in
number in the west. Upper level high pressure will stay southeast of
NM into Monday and Tuesday while an upper level trough pushes into
the Great Basin of the western states. Drier air aloft will lead
ahead of the trough, entraining into the northwestern half of NM.
This will lower storm potential there during the middle to late part
of next week, and likely even farther east as well. Haines indices
will respond upward in northwestern to north central NM through this
time frame with wetting precipitation becoming much more sparse and
allowing some drying of soils and fuels. Fortunately, no bouts of
widespread strong winds are foreseen.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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