Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151020
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system south of the bootheel will continue to
bring widespread valley rain and significant mountain snow to the
region today and tonight. A trailing system will result in
scattered rain and snow showers Monday, Monday night and possibly
into Tuesday. A break in between storms remains on track for
Wednesday before another system moves in Thursday night and
Friday. Yet another Pacific storm is expected for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level closed low centered near Hermosillo early this
morning. Snow levels near the 7500 ft level with periods of heavy
snow falling above 8000 feet. Models continue to lift the low
newd today and tonight but slightly farther east than previous
runs. This would act to limit the wrap-around precip amounts
somewhat tonight but all models continue with a clear deformation
zone across the northern half or so of the state. This atmospheric stretching
will act to keep low elevation rain and high elevation snow going
tonight. Snow levels fall somewhat overnight, to around 6000 feet
or so as cold air aloft associated with the low center moves over.
Santa Fe metro along with Taos area could pick up an inch or two
of snow on vegetated surfaces tonight. Left winter storm warning
as is with no additional areas to add. Snow accumulation in the
6000-7000 elevation range is expected to have little impact on
area roadways overnight. Light freezing rain will continue to be a
concern across the northeast plains through the morning hours so
will leave that advisory as is.

Trailing short-wave trough expected on Monday takes a similar
path to the now exiting closed low. This feature results in more
deformation (stretching) across the northern half or so of the
state and with residual moisture in place and a cold poos aloft,
scattered low elevation rain and high elevation snow showers
result Monday and Monday night. Several inches of accumulation is
possible mainly across the northern mountains Monday afternoon.
ECMWF, and to some extent the GFS, develop an elongated closed low
over NM Tuesday, possibly resulting in isolated snow showers
mainly over the mountains Tuesday afternoon.

A break in between systems is anticipated Wednesday through the
day Thursday before the next short-wave trough moves in from the
west Thursday night and Friday. Both the GFS and ECMWF remain
progressive with this wave as it moves rapidly east through NM
Friday. A deeper and colder trough remains in the cards for next
weekend.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A widespread wetting event is well underway, with relatively high
snow levels for mid January. Lower elevation rain and higher terrain
snow will be the rule today, with lowering snow levels this evening
into Monday morning. A trailing trough will keep chances for wetting
precipitation going through Monday with high relative humidity. Vent
rates will be poor to fair and are not forecast to improve until
late in the work week.

A drying/warming trend will begin Tuesday, with daytime temperatures
reaching up to near normal by Wednesday as a ridge moves in behind
the slowly departing trough. The synoptic pattern will transition by
the end of the week to a progressive wave train as the jet stream
dives into the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies. Look for a
cooling/moistening trend with stronger winds to begin Friday and
continue through next weekend as a series of progressively colder
troughs impact the state.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Waves of precipitation will continue overnight and through much of
Sunday though by the afternoon, will be focused across the eastern
plains. High elevation SN with mt obscurations and mainly low
elevation RA will persist tonight. Periods of FZRA will be
possible for NE NM tonight and this same area may switch over to
snow on Sunday. Additionally, scattered TS will persist over the
eastern plains for at least the next few hours. Widespread
IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys across eastern NM will persist through Sunday,
with low cigs/vsby more often than not elsewhere as well. Overall,
many impacts to aviation over the next 18+ hours. Timing each wave
of precipitation will be tricky, thus expect amendments.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  31  42  27 /  50  50  30  10
Dulce...........................  41  29  37  24 /  70  70  50  30
Cuba............................  39  28  36  24 /  90  90  70  30
Gallup..........................  42  30  40  23 /  70  60  40  20
El Morro........................  38  28  39  22 /  80  70  50  30
Grants..........................  40  28  42  22 /  80  60  40  20
Quemado.........................  39  32  40  23 /  70  60  50  20
Glenwood........................  46  33  48  31 /  70  50  30  30
Chama...........................  37  25  36  18 /  80  90  70  50
Los Alamos......................  36  29  36  26 /  90  80  50  40
Pecos...........................  37  29  38  27 / 100  80  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  33  24  34  19 /  90  90  70  40
Red River.......................  31  23  30  20 / 100  90  80  60
Angel Fire......................  33  23  34  15 / 100  90  70  50
Taos............................  36  25  37  21 /  90  80  50  40
Mora............................  34  25  37  24 / 100  80  60  50
Espanola........................  41  31  42  27 /  80  70  40  30
Santa Fe........................  37  30  37  28 / 100  80  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  39  29  41  26 /  90  80  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  40  36  44  33 /  90  80  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  33  45  31 /  80  70  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  34  47  27 /  80  70  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  34  46  31 /  80  70  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  46  31  51  25 /  80  70  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  44  35  46  31 /  80  70  30  20
Socorro.........................  45  33  51  32 /  80  50  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  31  38  28 / 100  80  40  40
Tijeras.........................  38  32  41  25 / 100  80  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  28  39  23 /  90  70  30  30
Clines Corners..................  32  25  37  24 /  90  80  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  38  30  42  29 /  90  70  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  42  32  46  30 /  80  60  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  40  29  45  27 / 100  70  20  20
Capulin.........................  32  23  32  19 / 100  80  60  30
Raton...........................  34  23  37  18 /  90  70  50  30
Springer........................  36  24  41  20 /  90  70  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  35  22  39  22 /  90  70  40  30
Clayton.........................  33  26  37  23 /  90  70  40  20
Roy.............................  33  24  39  22 /  90  70  30  30
Conchas.........................  36  28  45  28 /  90  70  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  37  29  45  29 /  90  60  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  36  27  45  25 /  90  70  20  10
Clovis..........................  42  29  48  27 /  90  60  10  10
Portales........................  43  32  50  29 /  90  50  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  41  30  49  29 /  90  60  10  10
Roswell.........................  46  31  55  32 /  90  40  10  10
Picacho.........................  43  32  52  32 /  80  50  10  20
Elk.............................  41  31  48  30 /  90  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ523-528-529-532>540.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for the
following zones... NMZ530-531.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM MST Monday for the following
zones... NMZ502-506-508-510>515-521-526-527.

&&

$$

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