Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 240525 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC LOW
DEEPENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS...AND SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND
WEST TO EL PASO WILL SUPPORT BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NM
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BACK WINDS ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE WORKING OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NM THROUGH 06Z SUN
NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS OFF TO A GOOD START TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE REVERSING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
TREND UP A FEW MORE DEGREES...BRINGING HIGHS TO NEAR NORMAL
CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. MOISTURE WILL COME BACK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. BY NEXT SATURDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WARMING/DRYING TREND IS MATERIALIZING WITH NO LIGHTNING
SHOWING UP ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 3 PM. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE
AN AVERAGE 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24HRS AGO...BUT WERE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE READINGS ARE CURRENTLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT`S...BUT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

MORE WARMING/DRYING ON SUNDAY PRIOR TO MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE
DAY. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
00Z WITH PLENTY OF HEATING TO DESTABILIZE. MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
SHOWING PWATS INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL (1.1-1.2" AT KABQ). THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO TAP MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT WOULD NOT BE A DEEP
TAP. MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT CENTRAL AND WEST...WHERE OUR
HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR
POPS FOR THE MON/TUE PERIODS HAVE TRENDED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLE AND ARE AT OR ABOVE 12Z GFS MOS VALUES.

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUING THE SAME FORECAST
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MID WEEK
TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...WITH
BOTH THE CMC AND ECMWF SHOWING A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH (CLOSED
LOW) DRAGGING ACROSS COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WED/THU.
DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION...WHICH ACTUALLY BEGINS WEDNESDAY. OUR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT REPRESENT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH OUR POPS TILTED A TAD CLOSER TO THE GFS. IF
THE ECMWF WORKS-OUT...WE`LL SEE A TASTE OF FALL-LIKE LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING THANKS TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
A DRY AIR MASS ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER SPELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DRIVING
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THUS
FAR...DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT A PRONOUNCED MASS OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS WORKED
OVER NM ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
LEVELS...ACTING TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT A STRAY ONE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NW OR SE CORNERS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DECENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE DEW POINTS HOLDING CLOSE TO WHAT THEY ARE
CURRENTLY READING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SOME POCKETS OF EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ABOVE 7500 FEET TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE SW FLOW
ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NM ON SUNDAY...THUS A SMALL AND
MEAGER CROP OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. BREEZES WILL DECREASE NOTICEABLY
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. MINIMUM RH WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AND WILL EXCEED CLIMATOLOGY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE EAST.

INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ONE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO NM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING OVER THE MS VALLEY...HURRICANE MARIE CHURNING NW IN THE
PACIFIC...AND A NEW DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THUS...SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER NM WILL DRAW IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...AND
POTENTIALLY AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE BY MONDAY.
DEW POINTS CREEP UP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD INCREASES EXPECTED INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT IS ALSO SLATED TO ARRIVE
INTO NE NM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BUT MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON EXACT
TIMING. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING A RECHARGING OF MOISTURE INTO
THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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