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000
FXUS65 KABQ 120527 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY TRENDING DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KSAF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SMOKE IN THE MIX...AND PERHAPS AT KLVS TOO...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
THERE. SMOKE AT KLVS AND KSAF...AND POSSIBLY KABQ...MAY BECOME
MORE OF AN ISSUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...747 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR NW AND WEST-CENTRAL ZONES. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NM IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS SEVERAL DEGREES NW AND WC AREAS WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013...
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS BEING SHUNTED SOUTHEAST A BIT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
TROUGH IS BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...MORE ON THAT BELOW.  PLUMES FROM BOTH THE JAROSO AND THE
THOMPSON RIDGE FIRES ARE VISIBLE ON BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  ADDED SMOKE INTO THE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...MAINLY NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE JAROSO FIRE.
OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS THE HEAT.  TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN APPROACHING RECORD OR NEAR RECORDS...AFTER ANOTHER WARM
MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRY T-STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...BUT ARE STRUGGLING THUS FAR.

THE HEAT CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL RESUME ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND PERHAPS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY AND
PULLS SOME MOISTURE BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

PERHAPS A BIGGER THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE WEST...AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NM DRAWS UP SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. STRONG INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY MICROBURSTS. THIS MOISTURE IS
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BUT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS MEXICO THURSDAY AND INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY. THOUGH THE INITIAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE DRY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY...RICHER
MOISTURE MAY BE PULLED UP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE...ACROSS WESTERN
NM...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.  HAVE
TRENDED POPS UP A LITTLE FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF NM...LEAVING SOME WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM.  SOME
MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH PERHAPS SOME RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR DRY STORMS.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
RECORD HEAT...EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS...HIGH TO SUPER HAINES VALUES
AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS ARE CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH SPOTTY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 40. RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DRY STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE
GILA REGION AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR RH RECOVERY IN THE WEST AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE STATE. FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERY ACROSS THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE HOT WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS WITH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS. HIGH HAINES VALUES AREA WIDE WITH SPOTTY SUPER HAINES
VALUES OVER THE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AT LEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS AND PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
ANYWHERE. OBVIOUSLY THOUGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES AND RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST
AND CENTRAL AND 10 TO 20 IN THE EAST. A FEW DRY STORMS POSSIBLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER MEXICO WILL REACH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NM FRIDAY WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE HEADING
NORTH OF IT. INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH DRY VERSUS WETTING STORMS WILL
WE GET. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BY CONTRAST...MOST OF FRIDAYS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE WETTER SIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER BOTH DAYS AND RH VALUES
HIGHER. VENTILATION RATES STILL MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. HAINES
INDEX WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST.

LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER HIGH WILL POKE BACK UP OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REDUCING THE OVERALL CHANCES
FOR WETTING RAINS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND RH VALUES
LOW DURING THE DAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL THOUGH BRINGS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CHJ

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH PASSES TO N OF NM THIS AFTERNOON SFC W TO SW WIND
FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN...GUSTING AT TIMES TO BETWEEN
25 AND 35 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN THIRD OF NM. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST BUT SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED AND NOT INCLUDED IN ANY TAF FORECASTS. A FEW HIGH BASED
-SHRA AND -TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN VICINITY AS WELL
AS THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES NOT EXPECTED TO
GREATLY IMPACT TAF SITES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR KSAF AND
KLVS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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