Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261125 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SLIGHT BREEZES W/ GUSTS TO 25KTS BY MID DAY AROUND KFMN AND KLVS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS MOST AREAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. NO PRECIPITATION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SURGING ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS JUST ABOUT ALL SPOTS BY FRIDAY AND WELL ABOVE BY
SATURDAY AND WIND SPEEDS BELOW THE NORM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
BIT OF COOLING LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX INTO SAT ALL AREAS AND EVEN FOR SUN...THOUGH SUN MAY
BRING TO THE NE QUARTER OR SO OF NM SMALL CHANCES OF VERY SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AFTN TEMPS TO BE WITHING JUST A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY ACROSS NW TWO THIRDS OF NM AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW ACROSS SE THIRD. A FEW HIGH TEMP RECORDS COULD BE IN HARMS
WAY BY SAT. WINDS NOT A MAJOR ISSUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND
LIKELY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...THOUGH A MODERATE
BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH WILL EASE WINDS BACK UP A LITTLE SUN ACROSS
THE EAST. FCST MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT SUN INTO MON ON EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OR AN OPEN WAVE...GFS AND TO
LESSER DEGREE CANADIAN PREFER THE FORMER AND THE ECMWF THE LATTER.
GFS FAR MORE BULLISH THAN OTHER MODELS WITH COVERAGE OF RELATIVELY
LOW MAGNITUDE QPF.

AFTER MON A MODEST UPPER RIDGE SCOOTS ACROSS THEN THE WESTERLIES
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OVER THE STATE AND...AT LEAST TO
SOME DEGREE...THE WIND MACHINE WILL BE BACK IN BUSINESS. ANY RAIN
CHANCES TUE TO THE END OF THE WEEK APPEAR LIMITED TO N CENTRAL AND
PERHAPS NE NM. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. THE POTENT COLD FRONT FROM LAST EVENING HAS USHERED IN MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. TEMPS TODAY WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS AND NEAR NORMAL WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SWITCH TO WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW CORNER. VENT RATES
LOOK POOR/FAIR SOUTH OF I-40 AND GOOD TO THE NORTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE SLIDING SOUTH OF NM
WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY NICE BURN WINDOW
FOR FIRE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES. NW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL IMPROVE VENTILATION TO GOOD/EXCELLENT MANY AREAS AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL HOVER IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. SLIGHTLY BREEZIER LATE
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER NW FLOW CORRIDOR
FROM FARMINGTON TO CUBA AND AROUND CLINES CORNERS. A FEW HOURS OF
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN THE AREAS FROM CLINES CORNERS TO LAS VEGAS. MIN RH VALUES WILL
FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT ALL AREAS WHILE RECOVERIES AVERAGE
FAIR TO GOOD.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ENTER THE NE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPS. MEANWHILE...THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT REGARDING THIS NEXT FEATURE HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE OTHERS REMAIN DRY.

A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE EXTENDED BURN WINDOW IS ON THE HORIZON FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE ZONAL FLOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP WITH DRY
INTRUSIONS...WARM TEMPS...AND HIGH HAINES. MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES AGAIN. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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