Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 172120
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FIRST OF THREE DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT NM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE...DEVELOPING ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO
CA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO AZ SUNDAY. MORE MOISTURE WILL
GET TAPPED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME STORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THIRD SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY HANG
AROUND FOR A DAY OR TWO. MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS FINAL STORM OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH TODAY. THEY WILL
LOWER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS FIRST OF THREE STORMS IMPACTS OUR FORECAST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH
THIS FEATURE...AS RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST SATURDAY WHILE WESTERN AREAS
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND INCH
ITS WAY INTO AZ SUNDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT LIMPS INTO SOUTHWEST NM
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT STRONG BY THE TIME IT REACHES NM IT
WILL BE ABLE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF IT THANKS TO ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT. SO WE EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE FAVORED AREA SHOULD BE THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE UP AROUND ONE INCH COULD FALL OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.

THE THIRD SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL THE
MODELS THEN DEEPEN THE TROUGH DROP IT SHARPLY SOUTHEAST. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS WHEN THE MODELS DROP IT SOUTHEAST AND HOW MUCH THEY
DEEPEN THE TROUGH. THE GFS IS WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH OUT OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN DEEPENS THE
TROUGH MUCH QUICKER AND DIVES IT SOUTH INTO NM WEDNESDAY. THE
EUROPEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. IT THEN DEVELOPS A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. SO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY THEN DRYING OUT AFTER THAT. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS AHEAD OF AN WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THE
WEAK TO MODERATE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD EXPECT GAP WINDS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPOTTY WETTING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THEY SHOULD BE MOST COMMON ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF BECAUSE OF BACK TO BACK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST ON
SATURDAY BUT BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AREAWIDE.
LOOK FOR HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES ACROSS THE EAST.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE GOOD TO FAIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
SATURDAY BUT TREND LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS ON SUNDAY.
MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME WETTING RAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FAVORED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. UNSEASONABLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. LIGHTER WIND FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH
JUST A FEW BREEZES ACROSS THE EAST. OVERALL VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE
DECENT MOST AREAS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ALTHOUGH
TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF KEEPS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS. SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY THERE BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD GRADUALLY WARM WHILE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE KLVS AND KSAF WHICH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS
AFTER 06Z BECAUSE OF A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. COMBINATION OF A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT FROM THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE OF VCSH AFTER 00Z FOR TAF SITES
EXCEPT KTCC. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY GAP BREEZES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVENING. GUST POTENTIAL AT KABQ UP TO
25 KT SO AN AWW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  71  45  71 /   5   5  10  10
DULCE...........................  37  64  36  67 /  10  20  20  20
CUBA............................  41  66  40  68 /  10  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  38  71  37  70 /  10  10  10  20
EL MORRO........................  38  68  39  67 /  10  10  10  30
GRANTS..........................  39  72  38  69 /  10  10  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  42  69  43  68 /  10  10  10  30
GLENWOOD........................  43  79  42  75 /   5   5   5  10
CHAMA...........................  33  62  32  63 /  10  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  64  46  65 /  10  20  20  30
PECOS...........................  42  60  42  64 /  10  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  40  63  37  65 /  10  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  38  56  38  55 /  10  30  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  60  30  62 /  10  30  20  30
TAOS............................  38  64  37  66 /  10  20  20  20
MORA............................  39  62  40  66 /  10  20  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  49  70  46  71 /  10  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  45  64  45  65 /  10  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  45  68  44  68 /  10  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  71  49  68 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  73  52  71 /   5  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  74  49  72 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  74  50  72 /   5  10  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  75  46  73 /   5   5  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  51  74  49  72 /   5  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  51  78  50  75 /   5   5   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  69  46  70 /  10  10  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  47  69  47  69 /  10  10  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  39  68  40  69 /  10  10  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  42  67 /  10  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  68  45  68 /   5  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  73  44  72 /   5  10   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  45  67  43  68 /  10  20  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  38  62  42  69 /   5  20  10  20
RATON...........................  38  65  39  72 /   5  20  10  20
SPRINGER........................  40  65  40  72 /  10  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  62  41  68 /  10  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  42  64  47  75 /   5  10  10  10
ROY.............................  41  63  43  71 /  10  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  44  69  48  76 /  10  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  45  67  48  73 /  10  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  44  69  46  77 /  10  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  46  66  46  72 /  10  20   5  10
PORTALES........................  45  68  46  72 /  10  20   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  68  47  73 /  10  20  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  50  70  50  73 /  10  20   5  10
PICACHO.........................  47  65  46  69 /  10  20  10  10
ELK.............................  44  62  44  66 /  10  20   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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