Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160907
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue during the next 7 days.
The first Pacific low will cross over the area today into tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will generally favor western and central
areas. Gusty winds will favor all areas today but especially across
the east. The second Pacific low will be on the heals of the first
with impacts to the Four Corners area Wednesday into Wednesday
evening before shifting south and east. Residual impacts in terms of
cooler temperatures, abundant cloud cover and some showers will
remain on Thursday. The main portion of the low and accompanying
surface cold front will impact central and eastern portions of the
area on Friday. Snow levels will be the lowest Friday into Friday
night and allow for some modest accumulations across the higher
elevations of the north central mountains. A gradual warming trend
is shaping up for the weekend and should last into early next week.
Moisture and instability should be sufficient enough during the
weekend and early next week to initiate a few thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of big changes to the gridded forecast. Models remain
steadfast with their depiction of the unsettled weather pattern
during the next several days. Confidence pretty high for a baroclinic
precipitation band developing over the Four Corners area Wednesday
and trending south and east Wednesday night into Thursday.Trended
PoP`s a bit higher and further south.

Storms today will provide strong microburst like winds thanks to the
drier low levels, moist mid levels and strong ambient winds aloft.
Have a mix of drier and wetter storm activity. The latest 6z NAM is a
bit more bullish for some wetting rain associated with some of the
storms across north central and central areas including the ABQ metro
area. Will have to monitor that trend. Suspect conditions will be a
bit drier in the metro and create a hybrid of strong convective and
synoptic wind flows. The east will largely see strong synoptic wind
flow due to the abundant mixing that is depicted by the modeling.
Will be posting a wind advisory for a good portion of the east today.
Went a little above model temp guidance for this afternoon across the
lowlands and for that matter most areas thanks to the warmer start
this am, despite increasing cloud cover. Critical fire weather
conditions shift to the east today after the low clouds erode across
EC and SE plains this morning.

Mentioned Wed/Thur weather above. Some snowfall will be found across
the higher northern mountains Wed night into Thur but impact will be
minimal. Did trend high temps lower than guidance for the NW third
thanks to the consistency of the model depicted precipitation band
there. Breezy to windy on Wed but trending lower on Thu.

The crescendo period still looks to be Fri into Fri night as the
Parent Pacific low slides over the area. This low will be accompanied
with a surface cold front that will impact the east later Friday into
Friday night. Convergence and lift associated with these two features
should create some decent precipitation returns favoring the NE
third. This is the period when snow levels should be the lowest thus
providing the most impact. With that being said...thinking more
higher elevation event with modest accumulations.

Models show a warming trend during the weekend although unsettledness
should remain as mid level moisture flows up from the south. Suspect
many of the thunderstorms will be of the drier variety. The GFS
continues to be the most bullish of the models for larger spatial
impact from thunderstorms. Confidence only moderate at this time.

Possible Pacific low and cold frontal passage favoring the east by
the middle of next week.

High temps through a large portion of the period are expected to be
below normal. Exceptions include the eastern third today. Near normal
temps expected by Monday.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity recovery has been fair to poor across a majority of the
area so far, but Gulf moisture advection across the southeast third
of the East Central Plains is bringing excellent recovery there. The
setup going into this afternoon favors many hours of critical fire
weather conditions across the Northeast and East Central Plains,
where temperatures will be near/above normal and a Red Flag Warning
is currently in place. Otherwise, a cooling trend is in play, with
below normal temperatures forecast across all of central and western
New Mexico behind a Pacific cold front. Windy conditions are
forecast with the front across western New Mexico and very windy
conditions are forecast across the eastern half both ahead of and
behind the front. Impressive, well above normal mixing heights are
forecast as well, up to 19K ft above ground level in the Rio Grande
Valley. The upper level low/trough currently over Southern
California will supply the front and race eastward today, then over
the state this evening. A round of convection is forecast with the
passage of the cold pool aloft, but the lower boundary layer will be
very dry so wetting precipitation will likely be confined to the
higher terrain. Dry lightning and gusty winds are favored this
evening for lower elevation areas generally along and west of the
Central Mountain Chain. Strong winds will continue behind the front
overnight with good/fair humidity recovery central and west and
fair/poor recovery Eastern Plains where more critical fire weather
conditions are forecast Wednesday. That said, temperatures come down
along with Haines indices, so additional warnings are not
anticipated at this time.

A second and more potent upper low, currently over the Pacific NW,
will drop to over the lower Great Basin late Wednesday, then turn
east over Colorado and northern New Mexico Thursday. This feature
will push a stronger cold front through the area, with a frontal
band of precipitation forecast. Wetting precipitation will favor
locations along and west of the Continental Divide where our
forecast PoPs have trended up. Temperatures behind this front for
Thu/Fri continue to trend down each forecast cycle, with well below
normal daytime temperatures forecast. 00Z model solutions show a
trailing shortwave trough rotating southeast through New Mexico
Friday around the base of the upper low circulation, providing
another round of showers and storms with the potential for more
accumulating snow across the higher terrain of the Northern
Mountains.

A warming trend is forecast through the weekend and into early next
week with Gulf moisture coming back and providing fuel for more
showers and storms across central and eastern New Mexico by Monday.
Daytime temperatures should be back do within a few degrees of
normal by Monday.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with one possible
exception. Gulf moisture advection underway across the Southeast
Plains may result in a few hours of MVFR cigs at KROW early this
morning. Otherwise, winds will be the main aviation weather impact
Tuesday, with surface wind gusts up to between 40-45kts possible at
KLVS, KTCC and KROW by late afternoon. A late day round of showers
and storms are possible across central New Mexico and may impact
KABQ, KAEG and KSAF between 23-03Z with gusty winds and lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  42  59  38 /  20   5  50  60
Dulce...........................  63  34  56  33 /  30  20  60  80
Cuba............................  61  35  60  36 /  40  30  30  70
Gallup..........................  61  36  63  34 /  30   5   5  80
El Morro........................  57  33  62  34 /  20  10   5  80
Grants..........................  63  37  66  37 /  20  10   0  50
Quemado.........................  59  35  66  40 /  30  20   0  40
Glenwood........................  69  39  75  44 /  20   5   0   0
Chama...........................  58  31  52  30 /  30  20  60  80
Los Alamos......................  63  40  62  41 /  30  30  20  40
Pecos...........................  65  37  65  38 /  20  40   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  63  33  60  34 /  20  40  10  40
Red River.......................  57  29  53  29 /  20  60  20  30
Angel Fire......................  59  31  55  31 /  30  60  10  30
Taos............................  65  33  62  35 /  20  30  10  30
Mora............................  64  38  62  37 /  20  30   5  10
Espanola........................  70  42  69  44 /  20  30  10  30
Santa Fe........................  64  39  63  40 /  20  40   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  68  40  68  42 /  20  30   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  44  73  47 /  20  30   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  46  73  49 /  20  30   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  47  75  51 /  20  30   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  73  45  74  48 /  20  30   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  75  45  76  49 /  10  20   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  73  45  74  48 /  20  30   0  20
Socorro.........................  76  47  79  52 /   5  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  65  38  67  41 /  20  30   5  20
Tijeras.........................  69  41  70  44 /  20  30   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  68  40  69  41 /  10  20   0   5
Clines Corners..................  66  39  67  41 /   5  20   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  68  41  72  46 /   0  20   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  72  44  75  50 /   5  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  65  40  69  45 /  20  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  71  41  66  40 /   5  20   0  10
Raton...........................  75  41  70  40 /  10  20   0   5
Springer........................  75  43  72  43 /   5  20   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  68  40  67  40 /   5  20   0   5
Clayton.........................  82  50  76  48 /   5  20   0   5
Roy.............................  75  45  72  46 /   5  20   0   5
Conchas.........................  83  54  80  54 /   5  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  80  49  78  50 /   0  10   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  86  55  82  54 /   5  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  85  52  81  53 /   0  10   0   5
Portales........................  86  54  81  55 /   0  10   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  84  53  81  54 /   0  10   0   5
Roswell.........................  87  53  87  55 /   5   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  78  47  79  51 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  71  43  74  48 /   5  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ104-108.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ515-520>540.

&&

$$

50



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