Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 170551 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE CLUSTER OF -TS/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S THROUGH
THE LOWER PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH S OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO ISOLD -TS/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK S AND
SEWD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED W OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE A COMBINATION OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS WITH
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN STRONGER CELLS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...848 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD POPS/WX/SKY/QPF. INCREASED POPS THIS
EVENING SOUTHEAST PLAINS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND
GENERALLY DECREASED POPS ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE A
NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND OUTSIDE OF COLLIDING OUTFLOWS AND CURRENT
ROUND IN SE PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS STATEWIDE WILL FOCUS ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COVERAGE SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AND CENTRAL BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. WITH MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD
OUT OF MEXICO...MIDWEEK STORMS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS GENERALLY EXPANDING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND NORTHWARD OVER THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY TO THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RIDGE CORE
PARKED OVER ARIZONA IMPARTING A SOUTH AND EAST TRANSPORT DIRECTION
FOR CONVECTION...AS THE ONE INCH PWAT CONTOUR LIES FROM CLAYTON TO
SILVER CITY...WETTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND RUNNING A LITTLE
DRIER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AT THE SURFACE...DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO WORK AGAINST WEAK
TROUGH LYING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK IN A WEAKLY
FORCED PATTERN OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN
EVOLUTION EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GOOD START MOVES RIDGE CORE BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
MONDAY AS TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DEEPENS TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...IMPARTING A SOUTHWEST PULL ACROSS NEW MEXICO ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK. TROUBLE LIES TO THE WEST...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF KEEP THE WEST COAST TROUGH OPEN...PHASE IT
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM IN WESTERN CANADA...AND BRING ALL INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION CUTS
BOTTOM OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH OFF AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN PHASES
CLOSED LOW WITH STRONGER CANADIAN TROUGH BUT KEEPS TROUGH AXIS
NAILED TO THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. COMMON THREAD WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW
MEXICO...STRONGER WITH ECMWF AND WEAKER WITH GFS...AND WILL KEEP
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TOWARD SOME FORM OF CONTINUED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD MIDWEEK EVENT. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY TIGHTEN THIS UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND NORTHWARD OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY TO
THE COLORADO LINE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND OVER
SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. SOME MODEST
EASTERLY GUSTS WILL SQUIRT THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS
AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE CORE EXPANDING BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO IMPART A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...WITH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...WITH MOST SPOTS WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF MID AUGUST
NORMALS. LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY SHOWING PREFERENCE FOR SOUTH
AND EAST DIRECTIONAL COMPONENTS...WITH NORTH AND WEST SHOWING UP
NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE CORE AND IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK SURFACE LOW SETTING UP ON THE FOUR CORNERS.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE CORE CENTERED ON CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AS TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST TAKES SHAPE AND DEEPENS. BROAD SPRAWL OF LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM UTAH ACROSS COLORADO TO WESTERN
KANSAS...AND FESTOONED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO.
CONFIGURATION WILL BEGIN SUBTLE SHIFT IN STORM FOCUS FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EAST TO CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH HIGH COUNTRY COVERAGE
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE TO BASIC
TEMPERATURE PATTERN WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING CLOSE TO MID AUGUST
NORMALS.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE CORE SQUEAKS EAST TO LIE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND ON INTO THE BIG BEND AND
CHIHUAHUA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TUG OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS INCH OR BETTER PWAT CONTOUR LIES FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS TO SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY BY TUESDAY
EVENING...WETTEST TO THE SOUTH. UP TICK IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
FAVOR THE WESTERN THIRD...AND THIS SECTION OF THE STATE WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW MID AUGUST
NORMALS...BUT REMAINING NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE WARMER TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY...AND CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL AND REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. GRADUAL EXPANSION OF RAINFALL OUT OF THE WEST AND INTO THE
NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL KICK UP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST...IN
PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
KANSAS TO TO ROUGHLY HOBBS AND ON INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH
FRIDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE RH AND WIND COMBO
EXPECTED IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE...BUT WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF A
2 TO 3 DAY DRY DOWN WITH DEW POINTS AND RH COMING DOWN SOME AND AFTN
TEMPS COMING UP SOME MAINLY NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. INTERESTINGLY
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHILE MINIMAL IS SIMILAR IF
NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRI AFTN. WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE
CONTENT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DRY...OR NEARLY SO...STORMS
ACROSS THE NW HALF THIS AFTN AND...IF THEY CAN FIRE UP...AGAIN SUN
AND MON. ELSEWHERE STORMS TO REMAIN WET...BUT MAY COME DOWN A BIT IN
COVERAGE. NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES TO BE HIGH END OF POOR TO FAIR IN
THE NW QUARTER AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGHER END RECOVERIES EAST AND SOUTH SHRINKING A BIT IN COVERAGE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOCALLY CRITICAL RH LEVELS MAY WELL BE
REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE STATE THE
NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT WINDS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERALL AND OF LITTLE
CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME.

AS MOISTURE DECREASES IN THE MID LEVELS...HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO 6
WILL BE SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO NEARLY HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUN THROUGH MON. THE UPCOMING SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE STARTING BY THE TUE TO WED PERIOD STILL LOOKS PRETTY MUCH
INTACT IN THE LATEST FCST MODELS...THOUGH SOME VARIANCE IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY IS BEING DISPLAYED. SO THE PREVIOUSLY INCREASED
DEW POINTS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WAS MAINTAINED. FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THE WEEKEND THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME FAIRLY MODEST DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE HEART OF THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSITIONED. GENERALLY SPEAKING THOUGH AT
LEAST WESTERN IF NOT CENTRAL AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME RAINFALL.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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