Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 082100
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.  AN INCREASE IN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE STORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
GENERALLY EAST TO WEST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.  MEANWHILE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO STORM MOTION WILL BE
VARIABLE.  SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO COULD POSE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT ESPECIALLY OVER FIRE BURN SCARS IN THE
REGION.  SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD 593H5 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THE UPPER
HIGH EXTENDS NW INTO UT AND SE INTO W TX.  LOWER ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IS
VARIABLE OVER N NM AND GENERALLY E TO SE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE SLOW AND VARIABLE MOTION ACROSS
N NM...NORTH OF THE U-40 CORRIDOR...WILL ENHANCE THE LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONFLUENT
FLOW ACROSS W NM COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
ACCORDINGLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR AREAS OF MOST
CONCERN IN WESTERN NM.  OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO INITIATE STORMS.  AIDING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MODEL DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT ALONG WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...CAPE..LI AND THETA-E VALUES
ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE.

THE BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE HIGH CENTER MEANDERS
ACROSS N AND CNTRL NM THROUGH THE WEEK SUSTAINING HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH BURN SCAR AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FIRST THEN TRACK SLOWLY
WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW INTO NEARBY VALLEYS AND PLAINS.  COLLIDING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE ANOTHER SOURCE FOR STORM
INITIATION.

EXTENDED RANGE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS NW OUT
OF NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY
SUNDAY AND CENTRAL UTAH BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  HOWEVER RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH
AND ATTENDANT LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS.

01

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE NM/AZ
BORDER...ALONG A N/S LINE THROUGH GALLUP. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONTAL FORCING...INCREASED MOISTURE...AND
SLOW STORM MOTION. DIURNAL HEATING IS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT
BURN SCARS REMAINS A RISK. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COMBO OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND TODAYS CONVECTION SHOULD YIELD IMPROVED OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES.

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EACH DAY. MODELS SHOW THE THETA-E
AXIS STRENGTHENING WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...AND
REMAIN IN A SIMILAR ORIENTATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PASSING ON ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AS FOCUS REMAINS ON
ACTIVITY TONIGHT...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOTION
MAKES FLASH FLOODING A THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS.
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN THE
FOCUS FOR STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK...AS NOTED BY THE HIGHEST
POPS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL JOSTLE AROUND THE DESERT
SW...CAUSING SLIGHT CHANGES IN DAY TO DAY STORM MOTIONS...BUT SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL REMAIN THE THEME. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES...BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL TREND DOWN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING MORE NOTABLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS PREFERRING
TO SHIFT THE CENTER NW TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ECMWF MORE
ELONGATED WITH TWO CENTERS. EITHER WAY...THEY BOTH SHOW THE HIGH
BECOMING MORE NW/SE ORIENTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
ALONG THE NE PERIPHERY. IT APPEARS THEY TRY TO BRING A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD...BUT ITS
WEAK AT THIS POINT. CONSIDERING THE SIMILARITY THIS PATTERN HAS TO
THE PATTERN SEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO
STRENGTHEN AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A GUSTY COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE W AND S TODAY...REACHING THE AZ/NM
BORDER BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH GAPS
OF CENTRAL MTS TILL LATE THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO
30KTS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON NEED FOR AWW FOR HIGH WINDS AT KABQ AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE NM WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY HINDER TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES. DELAY IN BUILDING OF CU OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN WILL DELAY TIMING SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN
AND EVE...WITH HIGH RES MODELS PAINTING KGUP AS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NW AND COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS AND BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  62  92 /  40  40  30  30
DULCE...........................  49  85  48  86 /  50  50  40  50
CUBA............................  54  83  55  85 /  60  50  60  60
GALLUP..........................  59  86  58  88 /  50  50  40  30
EL MORRO........................  55  79  54  80 /  60  50  50  40
GRANTS..........................  55  84  55  86 /  60  40  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  57  80  57  81 /  60  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  56  87  55  88 /  50  40  40  30
CHAMA...........................  46  78  46  79 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  81  61  82 /  60  60  50  60
PECOS...........................  57  78  59  80 /  60  60  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  79  54  78 /  60  40  40  50
RED RIVER.......................  44  70  44  71 /  60  60  40  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  74  38  75 /  60  60  40  60
TAOS............................  49  82  50  83 /  50  40  40  40
MORA............................  53  77  54  79 /  60  60  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  58  86  59  86 /  60  40  40  30
SANTA FE........................  61  80  62  81 /  60  50  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  86  60  87 /  60  40  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  87  66  88 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  89  69  90 /  50  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  90  65  91 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  91  68  93 /  60  20  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  92  63  93 /  50  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  66  91  67  93 /  60  20  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  70  95  70  95 /  30  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  85  62  86 /  60  50  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  61  87 /  60  50  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  82  56  83 /  50  50  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  82  58  83 /  50  40  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  64  85  62  85 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  86  63  86 /  20  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  82  55  82 /  20  20  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  58  80  61  82 /  50  30  30  50
RATON...........................  59  82  60  84 /  40  30  30  40
SPRINGER........................  58  85  59  87 /  50  30  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  80  56  84 /  60  40  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  63  89  66  92 /  30  30  20  20
ROY.............................  62  82  63  86 /  50  30  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  67  90  68  92 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  67  88  66  90 /  30  20  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  92  69  94 /  30  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  88  61  88 /  20   5  10  10
PORTALES........................  67  91  65  91 /  20   5  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  90  67  90 /  20  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  92  66  92 /  10   5  10   5
PICACHO.........................  64  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  20
ELK.............................  60  81  58  80 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>509.

&&

$$

01/24




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