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000
FXUS64 KAMA 120610
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 1 AM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE WINDS EASE.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS AND BLOWING DUST CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT THAT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z AS NORTH
SURFACE WINDS EASE UP A BIT.  MVFR CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT
INTO VFR RANGE AROUND 08Z.  NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER
SUNRISE AND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE AT MUCH LESSER
SPEEDS THAN THOSE SEEN ON TUESDAY.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED
DURING MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THE END OF DAY BEFORE RETURNING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO THE LATEST TEMP/WIND TRENDS AND TO CANCEL RED
FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WE
MIGHT NOT HIT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA EVERYWHERE...BUT IF WE
DON`T, IT`S GOING TO BE SO CLOSE THAT FEEL IT PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING GOING THROUGH 06Z. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/HWO ARE OUT.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

WINDS AND DUST ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE FIRST 6-8 HRS AT ALL
SITES. TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THE DUST AND THAT
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HRS. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED 30 TO 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS THROUGH ROUGHLY
06Z...A LITTLE LONGER AT KAMA AND A LITTLE SHORTER AT KGUY. CIGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN ABOUT 2500 FEET THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HRS AND THEN
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY 07Z-10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
LESSENING WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS AND ONGOING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED
AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVER THE AMA CWA BUT ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
OF AROUND 70 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WINDS
UPSTREAM OVER KS /PARTICULARLY AT DDC WHERE THEIR LATEST OB CAME IN
WITH A GUST AT 55 MPH/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OKLAHOMA MESONET OBS INDICATE GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND AS THE SPEED MAX MOVES OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE EVEN MORE. HAVE TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF CANCELING THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY INSTEAD OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN NOT SEEING SUSTAINED 40 MPH WINDS AND/OR WIND GUSTS AT
58 MPH IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THIS THINKING. OVERALL STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY.

BESIDES THE ONGOING WIND ISSUES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA. EARLIER THE
INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING THAT COVERED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
TRIMMED TO EXCLUDE THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE
FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AMARILLO...WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG
WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF FIRES
REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. IT WILL ALSO BE
COOLER WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

CLK

LONG TERM...
THE OVERALL THEME THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INDUCE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
BACK INTO THE 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH THE WESTERN PIECE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE EAST BUT WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE
AREA FRIDAY. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND APPROACH WEST TEXAS OVER THE LATER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...ALTHOUGH HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AS THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 PM DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
5 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 MPH BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING
WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TEXAS AND PANHANDLES
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. BEYOND THURSDAY
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08