Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031756
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1156 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR with spotty LIFR cigs/vsbys will be possible through
most of the period as low level moisture remains in place
resulting in low ST and areas of FG. Some isolated light showers
are showing up on radar near Oldham Co. with areas of light
drizzle elsewhere. While there could be some increase in shower
activity this afternoon and evening mainly across the southeastern
half of the CWA...did not include anything other than VCSH at KDHT
and KGUY after 06z as confidence has decreased some for point
locations through the period. Also can`t rule out some light snow
in the northeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern OK Panhandle this
evening. Only other thing to note is that dense fog chances
increase especially for KDHT and KGUY between 06z and 12z prior to
invasion of drier air and decreasing clouds after 12z.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1027 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

UPDATE...
Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory based on radar trends,
temperature trends, and latest reports. Upper low is currently
pushing south down the Sonora coast. 850mb flow is still out of
the southeast and east as of 1600z which is keeping dew points
above 32 degrees for most of the area with the exception of the
far western counties. Temperatures are slowly rising with some WAA
and limited daytime heating considering cloud cover. Dalhart,
Hereford and Guymon are all around 34 degrees F. While sleet was
reported earlier this morning in Hereford and Bushland...any of
the isolated showers left over on radar are most likely all rain
at this time. Some high res models are suggesting some
redevelopment of light rain late this afternoon and perhaps light
snow later in the evening from the southwest TX Panhandle to the
northeast OK panhandle. Not expecting much in the way of snow
accumulations with this activity if it does indeed develop...but
something to keep an eye on nonetheless.

Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 438 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The near-term forecast remains complex as dewpoint temperatures have
helped to stave off colder surface temperatures and thus kept
snowfall limited. Locations that have been able to see snow have had
dewpoints drop to or below 34 degrees. Amarillo has been right on
the edge of this threshold but has recently dropped to 33 degrees.
Regional radar shows another band of rain/snow moving northward
across the Lubbock CWA and we should see this band move into the
southern Texas Panhandle over the next hour or two. Haven`t seen
temperatures cool much as the precip moves in so expecting snow to be
limited to an area north and west of line from Dimmit to Amarillo to
Beaver. There is a little leeway with that line as we could see snow
in slightly warmer locations but accumulations would be extremely
limited. The southeastern Texas Panhandle will remain firmly locked
into rain as the main precipitation type throughout today.

Hi-res forecast models shows the aforementioned band of precipitation
continuing across the Panhandles through the morning hours with a
possible lull for the western Panhandles once the band moves through
until this afternoon. Have kept snow amounts focused to the western
Panhandles for this morning (which we could see additional amounts up
to 1 inch) with a rather sharp gradient as you move eastward. This
results in storm total snow amounts remaining between 1 to 2 inches
for the western and northern Texas Panhandle including the light snow
amounts from overnight. As such have kept the Winter Weather Advisory
as is and will expect it to expire by noon.

We expect to see a transition from frozen precip back to liquid by
midday as precipitation continues across the eastern Panhandles. The
southwestern Texas Panhandle could see a second round of precip this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Have lingered chances into
early Sunday morning but think precip may clear prior to midnight.
This round should remain rain during the daylight hours but we may
see some snowflakes mix back in as temperatures drop during the late
evening and overnight hours. Not expecting enough accumulation of
snow overnight (if any) and thus not planning on extending or issuing
another Winter Weather Advisory for this time period.

Sunday daytime should be precip free as the upper low moves across
Mexico and southern Texas. Daytime temperatures should also moderate
and return to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures on Monday
should rise into the mid 50s area wide.

As we move into the middle part of the coming week we will see a
surge of arctic air drop across the Panhandles. An initial front is
expected on Tuesday and should drop our high temperatures into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday will see the
leading edge of the arctic airmass approach with the possibility of
precip for the Oklahoma and north half of the Texas Panhandle. As of
now have kept potential amounts around 1 inch. Our high temperatures
on Wednesday will be near freezing for the southern Texas Panhandle
while the Oklahoma Panhandle may struggle to reach the 30 degree
mark. Wind chills could also be an issue Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with values dropping into the -5 to -10 degree range
while winds are near 10 mph. Will watch this timeframe closely as a
Wind Chill Advisory may be needed in time.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/3


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