690
FXUS64 KAMA 240542
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

-Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming week.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in
 flooding chances, especially for the western Panhandles.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Strong moisture transport is evident on satellite with both the
low and mid levels out of the south. PWAT`s on our 18z sounding
are around 1.53" which is a climatological max for today. So
storms today will be efficient rain producers, and flash flooding
will be a concern, especially for those in areas that have already
picked up recent moderate to heavy rains. Storms are already
popping up across the Panhandles, but right now look pretty tame,
and just moderate to heavy rain producers. Overall, high pressure
over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley continues to hold and that is
what`s keeping the monsoonal southerly flow over the Panhandle as
well as eastern NM. Given the higher moisture content, the storms
are not favored to be big hail producers, however, there is a weak
frontal boundary that is running across the northwest Panhandles
and that may bring enough cooler air aloft to get some severe hail
out of this. The main concern would be strong downbursts of 60-70
mph with these storms, and overall it looks to be in an isolated
nature. With the front retreating north and they high expanding a
bit further west on Tuesday we still will have a chance at
showers/storms, but the severe threat looks very minimal and the
main moisture plume may be off to the west as well. So tomorrow
may just be some areas of pop up afternoon storms, the exception
being the western Panhandles along the NM border.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday as the high pressure system
shows very little movement, so just pop up showers/storms will be
possible. Upper trough over the Four Corners looks to nudge
further east and push the flow more southwesterly, and bring a
slightly better chance of expanded showers and storms. Flow will
start to shift more westerly Friday and into the weekend. We may
get a lee surface low set up under this flow and it looks like we
may get a little bit of a break on Friday as lower dewpoints in
the 50s result from the southwest flow. Still, dewpoints may not
be as low as progged, and that would support a better chance of
showers and storms on Friday. So very much up in the air. Saturday
and Sunday flow becomes more unorganized, and multiple rounds of
showers and storms look possible, with the potential for some
pretty good rain Sunday evening.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Showers will continue overnight primarily around KGUY and KAMA,
with lower but non zero chances near KDHT. Higher shower and storm
chances transition to KDHT later this afternoon, so have
maintained the PROB30 group. Amendments may be needed to account
for stray precipitation throughout the period. Otherwise, expect
mid-level cloud decks and south winds of 10-20 kts with slightly
higher gusts this afternoon.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38