Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL
PROSPECTS FOR RAIN IN THE PANHANDLES ARE IMPROVING.

HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS.  VORTICITY MAXIMA AT 500 MB AND 700 MB EXPECTED
TO ASSIST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND
DEVEOPING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SAME.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON POP STRUCTURE REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.  HAVE INCREASED
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST DUE TO EXPECTED MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND BAROCLINICITY EXPECTED WITH ARRIVAL OF 850 MB TROF.

HAVE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST...WHERE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED AS TROF APPROACHES.  POPS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT CLOSED LOW AT 300 MB WITH JET STREAKS EMERGING FROM ITS BASE
INTO FORECAST AREA.  POPS RETAINED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.  WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 MPH IN NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
TODAY...NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND FUELS WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE WETTING RAINS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                96  68  94  68  92 /  30  20  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                 103  71  99  69  96 /  20  20  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              98  65  93  65  88 /  20  30  40  40  30
BORGER TX                 101  72  97  71  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  95  66  93  66  91 /  30  30  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX              100  71  97  72  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
DALHART TX                 96  63  92  65  91 /  20  30  40  30  30
GUYMON OK                 100  68  97  68  93 /  20  20  40  30  30
HEREFORD TX                94  64  93  64  90 /  30  30  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX               101  72  98  71  94 /  20  20  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   97  70  94  70  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX               100  71  98  72  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
WELLINGTON TX             102  71 100  72  97 /  20  20   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03




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