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000
FXUS64 KAMA 072138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WHILE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
RECEIVED AN ONSLAUGHT OF ICE AND SNOW FROM THE WINTER STORM...THE
PANHANDLES EXPERIENCED A COLD AND CLOUDY DAY WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS THIS MORNING STAYED LARGELY DID NOT DIP BELOW
ZERO...AMARILLO AND BORGER MANAGED TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO TIE PREVIOUS
RECORD LOW TEMPS. WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS...SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH ANY UPPER LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL REMOVED
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE DENSE STRATUS DECK AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT. IN FACT ONLY EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A
FEW DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE...SURPASSING THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL
BE AT 5 BELOW OR LOWER WILL BE BRIEF SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
THOUGH AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY COME CLOSE TO HAVING WIND CHILLS THIS
LOW FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.

SUNDAY MAY HAVE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY...WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WHERE THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
GETTING OUT OF THE 30S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...IN THE 40S ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AMA CWA MONDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER COLD DAY WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S. A
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY BREAKING OFF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
CAN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BREAK OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE AREA. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
MONDAY AS THIS TROUGH AND UPPER ENERGY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION IN TEMPS. TEMPS LOOK TO
WARM UP EVEN MORE /NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK/ TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SUNDAY. HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE AREA. COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK SO
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                12  42  10  23  11 /  10   5   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  12  33   7  21   7 /  10   5   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              12  31   6  18   2 /  10   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  12  44  12  24  14 /  10   5   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              17  46  13  24  12 /  10   5   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  14  43  12  26  12 /  10   5   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               11  41  15  26  16 /  10   5   0   5  10
DALHART TX                 13  40   7  22   4 /  10   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  13  33   6  21   7 /  10   5   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                16  45  12  26  11 /  10   5   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                12  39  11  23  11 /  10   5   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   12  37  11  22  14 /  10   5   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                13  37  15  28  15 /  10   5   0   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              13  38  16  29  15 /  10   5   0   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05