Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 200947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
447 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT US OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY CURRENTLY OVER
NE/SD...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS TODAY. AS
SUCH...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY JUST THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...PUNCTUATED BY WHAT SEEMS LIKE A CONTINUOUS
STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND EVENTUAL LOWS...RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATH TO THE LAST FEW OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE PANHANDLES UNDER
THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN COULD PROVE TO PERNICIOUS
REGARDING FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES WITH THE
ABUNDANT RECENT RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT IS NOT QUITE YET RESOLVED IN
THE MODELS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE REPRIEVE FROM
THE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FAVORS A MORE NORTHERN PATH.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  47  60  49  67 /  10  20  30  70  40
BEAVER OK                  60  45  64  49  66 /  10  10  10  70  40
BOISE CITY OK              57  44  57  48  69 /  10  20  30  60  30
BORGER TX                  59  48  62  51  69 /  10  20  20  70  40
BOYS RANCH TX              59  48  61  50  70 /  10  20  30  70  30
CANYON TX                  57  47  58  49  68 /  10  20  40  60  40
CLARENDON TX               59  48  61  50  65 /  20  20  30  60  50
DALHART TX                 57  46  59  48  70 /  10  20  40  70  30
GUYMON OK                  59  46  62  49  70 /  10  10  20  70  40
HEREFORD TX                57  47  59  49  68 /  10  20  40  60  40
LIPSCOMB TX                60  47  62  50  65 /  10  10  10  70  50
PAMPA TX                   57  45  60  49  64 /  10  20  20  70  40
SHAMROCK TX                61  50  61  52  65 /  20  20  10  60  60
WELLINGTON TX              62  52  63  54  67 /  20  20  20  60  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/18




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