Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240451 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE AND BACK SOME MORE BY EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AMA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z. CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY GET DOWN BRIEFLY INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FOREAST. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SOME TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND WHAT CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE AT LEAST ONE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.

NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN HOWLING TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AT LEAST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE GOING WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND
WARNING IN EFFECT. OVERALL...THINK WE/VE SEEN THE PEAK GUSTS BUT
STILL SEEING SEVERAL SITES GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. MOS GUIDANCE DECREASES WIND SPEEDS
PRETTY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS PAINT A LESS
OPTIMISTIC PICTURE...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
CONTINUED STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...AND SPEEDS
SHOULD FALL BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE THIS EVENING TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND THUS WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND HEADLINES ATTM. ALONG WITH THE STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING HAS TEAMED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ADD A BIT OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO SOME OF THE PRECIP. THIS AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL
SHRINK AFTER SUNSET...BUT MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGER ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOUR BEFORE WEAK FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND TOMORROW...AND WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. RISING HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DEEP UPPER
TROUGH...ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS COMING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.

THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...WHICH CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
GREAT BASIN LOW WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION VIA
THIS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS.

HOWEVER TEMPS WILL QUICKLY TAKE ANOTHER TUMBLE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF/GEM HOLDING MORE
ENERGY BACK IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...VERSUS THE GFS WHICH EJECTS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD BRING SOME DECENT SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SNOW CHANCES FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME...BUT KEPT THEM LOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

COOL...PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RELOAD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A 130 KT UPPER JET STREAK DIGS
SOUTHEAST ON ITS BACKSIDE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE THANKS
TO A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/05




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