Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 311100
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ONE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAZE/SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES BROUGHT IN BY NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VISIBILITIES
DECREASED AT KDHT AND KGUY LAST EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOSTLY APPEAR AS THIN CIRRUS AND NOT IMPACT
VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN VISIBILITY AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8



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