Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 110447
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1047 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.AVIATION...
No significant changes have been made to forecast of six hours ago,
other than to include periods of low-level wind shear.  Southwest
low-level jet around 50 kt will cause potential for low-level wind
shear between 06z and 11z Wednesday at GUY, while westerly low-level
jet will create potential for same between 11z and 16z Wednesday at
AMA.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR forecast continues for the next 24 hours with only high-level
clouds expected.  No visibility restrictions foreseen.  Southerly
surface winds will trend to southwest by sunrise Wednesday.  Southwest
surface winds expected to commence gusting into the 30 to 35 kt range
around 16z or 17z Wednesday, and to continue gusting through the
afternoon.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The focus of the forecast remains the late week/weekend storm.
Thankfully for those of us who don`t want a crippling ice storm,
a majority of fcst models continue to trend warmer for this event.
That said, this system is a few days out and we are not 100% out of
the woods yet, especially our friends in the northern parts of the
Texas Panhandle and those in the Oklahoma Panhandle.

After a warm day Wednesday, temps will begin to fall as colder air
eases its way into the area from the east. This colder air is the
cold blast that showed indications at one point of potentially
resulting in lows in the teens and highs in the 20s Friday and
Saturday. Well, thanks to the surface high planting itself in the
Great Lakes later this week instead of further southwest, the coldest
air will remain bottled up well northeast of us. However, enough cold
air will make it into the Panhandles that temps will be flirting with
the freezing mark over most of the area Fri-Sun.

Precipitation will likely begin as a batch of freezing drizzle or
drizzle Friday due to sufficient moisture and good isentropic
upglide on the 305K surface. Sfc temps will probably be right around
freezing for at least the first half of the day so we could see
travel impacts with this first shot of precip. The Panhandles will
then see very little diurnal fluctuation in temperatures through the
remainder of the weekend with most areas likely hovering in the low
to mid 30s. Unless models start trending back colder, which seems
unlikely (but certainly not impossible), then temps should remain
warm enough for the southern 2/3rds of the combined Panhandles to
see minimal impact from ice accrual. Even if we have readings in the
29-32 degree range, all signs point to a very impressive warm nose,
possibly up to 8C just 2kft off the surface. This warm nose would
make the likelihood for supercooled water droplets very low, meaning
rain would be unlikely to freeze on contact even with below freezing
sfc temps. As of now, the biggest concerns definitely lie north of a
Boys Ranch to Borger to Canadian line, but there are still several
days for this to change.

One thing of note is that the models seem to be converging on an
upper low ejection over the northwest CWA Sunday afternoon/night.
This may result in significant snow accumulations in areas like
Dalhart, Guymon, and Boise City on Sunday/Sun night, though
variations in this track are likely.

The pattern next week looks fuzzy as models can`t decide what to do
with the upr low after it passes. Have stayed close to climo until
something reveals itself a bit better.

Simpson

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon due to 20 foot
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph along with forecast minimum relative
humidity values between 15 and 20 percent. Neither elevated nor
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated from Thursday
through early next week due to a prolonged threat of precipitation.

Simpson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/21



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