Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 121747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE IMPROVING TOWARD
MARGINAL MVFR BY 19-21Z. CIGS NEAR THE 3KFT MVFR THRESHOLD WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. TOTALS OBSERVED ON VARIOUS NETWORKS
HAVE RANGED FROM LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN
DALLAM COUNTY AND AROUND 1 INCH IN NORTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY...TO
MORE COMMON VALUES BETWEEN A TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE UPPER 30S ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
AREAWIDE WITH MID 40 DEGREE READINGS IN THE AMARILLO VICINITY. HAVE
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. RAIN
WILL GENERALLY END BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KGUY AND KDHT...AND WILL
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH KAMA SHORTLY. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 30 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF KGUY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP KDHT THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KAMA THROUGH MIDDAY.
VSBY REDUCTIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE RAIN. TOUGH CALL FOR TONIGHT
AS TO WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST...OR SCATTER OUT BELOW VFR CIGS
AROUND 3500-4000 FT AGL. WILL KEEP THE TAFS A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC
AT THIS RANGE...SCATTERING OUT THE MVFR CIGS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
ON THE LOW SIDE.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD FASTER ON ITS WESTERN
SIDE THAN ITS EASTERN SIDE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND A LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FIRST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN THE FRONT WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH
TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE.

SUBTROPICAL PLUME COMBINED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THE RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER. A FEW UPPER 30S WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MATERIALIZE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES
STARTING SATURDAY...SO UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND SO WILL THE
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD STICK AROUND
THOUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD
AND COVERS THE PANHANDLES BEYOND TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY AND THE ELEVATED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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