Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 182356
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
556 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs:
Outside of the breezy winds Sunday, high clouds and possibly some
patchy fog Sunday morning will be the main story. The fog could
bring some low ceilings/visibility restrictions along with it,
mainly eastern parts of the Panhandles affecting KAMA and KGUY.
The fog looks like better chances will be east of the Panhandles
across Oklahoma. Nevertheless, the low clouds should break by late
morning. Early analysis shows cloud decks will be scattered, but
there is the chance for MVFR conditions with either broken or
overcast low level clouds. Confidence is high low level clouds
will be around tomorrow morning bring at least scattered low level
clouds and perhaps some visibility restrictions.

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low currently seen on WV imagery across NRN Baja will split
into two pieces of energy as it approaches wrn Texas. The southern
piece will close off into once again across S TX. The northern
piece will move NW across wrn zones as an open s/wv that will be absorbed
into a northern S/WV which will be moving across the NRN rockies
into the NRN plains. This S/WV will provide large scale lift to
the region Sun Aft and evening. Low levels will moisten rapidly in
advance of this system overnight but will be confined below a low
based inversion. This will likely produce low stratus tonight and
even some advection fog with the help of upslope SE flow. If
appears this inversion will lift some but will continue to trap
the moisture in the 2000-3000 feet of the atmosphere esp across
the east. Believe this will strongly limit heating and entire
area could remain capped with little chc of seeing sfc based
convection. Further west the inversion is weaker with a little
less cin, but moisture is very limited with pws well below 1". The
TTU wrf shows a very thin line of convection developing across
the far west where cin is less and moves the line from SW to NE
across the region. Other CAMs are less excited about this
occurring. Think more significant TSTMs will occur SE of the
region, but will continue with 20-35 pops (highest east) out of
respect for dynamic lift produced by the s/wv.

Drier air will move into the area behind a trough by Monday and
there will be a weak and short lived fropa behind that. SW low
flow and mid level ridging will provide much warmer temps
Wednesday with highs into the 80s. This will provide at least
elevated fire conditions. There will be a Pacific front that will
initially cool temps slightly on Thursday before a more
significant front drives temps back to seasonal values heading
into the weekend. We are not mentioning a very low chance for
precip behind the front Thursday night as most models are further
north than the GFS with a s/wv which could lead to development of
the precip, but this will have to be watched/

FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected at times through the week next week. Wednesday and
Thursday appear to be the days where biggest concern occurs.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

99/99



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