Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

069
FXUS64 KAMA 161839
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
139 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE THROUGH 8 PM CDT. REASONING/THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR AS IN
UPDATE BELOW. MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...WHERE WARMEST TEMPS/HIGHEST
DEWPOINTS/STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

..POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

UPDATE...MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THIS...STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL
HAVE A CHC TO INITIATE CONVECTION FURTHER WEST THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HAVE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN WRN
ZONES...BUT STILL SHOWING GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY TOGETHER WITH STRONG LIFT
ASSOC W/ THE UPR LOW ALSO WILL PROVIDE A RISK OF SVR STORMS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD TORNADO THIS AFTN. SPC HAS ALSO RESPONDED TO
CHANGES MODEL TRENDS BY EXTENDING THE SLIGHT RISK A BIT FURTHER WEST
ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT SOME OF THE AREA MAY HAVE A WATCH SOON. NOT
CONVINCED THE WIND ADVISORY IS GOING TO PAN OUT...ESP NRN AND ERN
SECTIONS IF NAM HAS BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION AND WE BELIEVE IT
MIGHT. THAT SAID...HAVE NOT TRIMMED THE WIND ADVISORY JUST YET GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.

AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SVR STORMS IN THE AREA THIS AFTN...ESP
AMA EASTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AND NEAR THESE
STORMS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EAST
OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

88/08





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.