Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221139
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED IN THIS
LARGER SYSTEM AND WAS PASSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WAS FINALLY
SCOURING THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. ONLY ISOLATED
SPRINKLES WERE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO AT LEAST 15-23 KTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THAT THIS IS NOT AN ARCTIC FRONT, AND
GIVEN AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TODAY ALONG WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO BETWEEN 49 AND 54F, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS ON THE LOWER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN CLARK INTO
SOUTHERN BARBER COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NON-ARCTIC NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS, ALONG WITH FAIRLY ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING DUE TO THE
10-15KT WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(25-30F), TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 24
AND 31F, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN IOWA. A LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SOUTH OVER KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. THE MODELS SHOW THIS SECONDARY LOBE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH THE AREAL PATTERN OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOW VERY LIGHT QPF
VALUES. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AMOUNTS (NEARLY A
QUARTER INCH COMPARED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS GENERATED BY THE OTHER
MODELS) OF PRECIPITATION AND CONSEQUENTLY, MORE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE SPEED AND CONFIGURATION OF THE WAVE,
THINK THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE. WHILE MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES DURING THE DAY, HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 183/281 CORRIDOR.

STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS 850 MILLIBAR
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KNOTS. THE GFS MODEL
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LAYER WINDS, SHOWING SOME 50 KNOT VALUES
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
BEING MET, WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

THE SENSIBLE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 60S IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COMES
OUT POSITIVELY TILTED AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM GO BY TO THE NORTH OF KANSAS WITH THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE
A COOLDOWN INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAKING THE
MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO SUSTAINED LEVELS AROUND 20-25
KNOTS AFTER 15Z. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LOW LEVEL
MIXING DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  29  37  24 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  50  27  36  21 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  50  27  37  22 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  52  28  37  22 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  50  30  36  23 /  20  10  30  10
P28  54  31  40  29 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD


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