Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN  THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST  IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE  FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  39  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  70  37  76  42 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  71  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  68  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL



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