Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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364
FXUS63 KDDC 060722
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

500-hPa shortwave ridging will move across western Kansas today. At
the surface...lee troughing will continue across the High Plains. The
net result is a warm and windy day. Highs will top out in the mid 80s.
Wind magnitudes of 15 to 25 mph are expected through the late morning
and into the late afternoon hours. Overnight mins will be quite mild
as a result of the continued southerly winds and increasing dewpoints
- mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

There may be a few light warm air advection showers Saturday late morning.
Confidence is low and the slight pops will work for now. Attention then
turns to Saturday evening. Mesoscale models like the ARW, NMM, and 4
km NAM all break out storms. This is in association with a trof approaching
the region and storms forming along the dryline and/or warm front. LHP
forecast values using the ARW as a baseline suggest hail in the half
dollar to golf ball range. This is a little lower than the 12 km NAM,
which has higher LHP values because the model has higher CAPE. This
model suggest hail over 2". Anyway, forecast soundings support high
based supercells. Coverage should be isolated to widely scattered. Any
tornado threat will be confined along the warm front in NE CO and NW
KS, where low level winds are backed with baroclinic vorticity augmentation.
The next chance for severe comes Sunday evening. Confidence is lower
here since this is outside the higher meso model domain. The EC suggests
that the highest CAPE/shear combination will be across Oklahoma in association
with higher dewpoints and a 120 kt 250-hPa jet streak. Still, depending
on how convective mode evolves, could see an environment favorable for
supercells, significant to giant hail, and isolated tornadoes. The main
threat will be limited to the SE zones. Despite this, still looks like
the worst severe will probably be in Oklahoma. Beyond that, another
chance of storms returns next week. Temps should be pretty pleasant
- 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. LLWS expected overnight and then again
tomorrow overnight. Southerly winds will increase 20-30 kt beginning
around 18Z as lee trough deepens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  58  84  53 /   0  10  30  30
GCK  87  57  84  49 /   0  10  30  30
EHA  86  55  83  46 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  87  56  85  50 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  86  60  83  54 /   0  10  50  50
P28  86  59  85  58 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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