Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190959 RRA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Arctic front and associated stratus continues to move southward
early this morning across southwest Kansas. The main forecast concern
is where this boundary will stall out. Usually in these situations,
the cold air wins. Some of the models return the boundary northward
as a warm front due to cyclogenesis. Feel this might be a bit
aggressive and took the cooler solution guidance. Elkhart, Kansas
will probably win out with the warmest temperatures during the day.
Otherwise, the northern zones will see 30s, central zones 40s. The
southern zones near the Oklahoma border will see the most impressive
temperature gradient across these counties with 10 to 20 degree
difference likely across just a single county. The bottom line is
that there is uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for
today. The good news is that with the cooler temps, fire weather
concerns should be lower if the evolution of temps go as anticipated.

Have some slight pops late tonight across the eastern zones.
Confidence on actually seeing measurable precipitation is low. The
EC and ARW/NMMB show much of the light precipitation remaining east
of the forecast district. Would not be surprised if these pops are
overdone and much of the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

On Tuesday and Wednesday the cold air will prevail across the Central
Plains. Highs should range from the 20s to lower 40s Tuesday and
mainly 30s Wednesday. Attention the turns to Thursday. Confidence on
precipitation and precipitation type is very low at this point. Some
of the models show a wintry mix, while others less so. At this
point, it is just too early to determine which model is correct. Any
precipitation should be mainly relegated to the eastern zones with
much of the CWA remaining dry. Beyond this, temperatures will
moderate through the rest of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Watch observations upstream across northwest Kansas and northeast
Colorado. Front with post frontal stratus is the main concern for the
TAF pd. As stratus heads south, MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are
expected for KGCK/KHYS/KDDC by early morning (psbl KLBL). A second
concern associated with the stratus is if cigs will improve to VFR
or if the clouds will linger. Confidence in the evolution of the
stratus is low at this time.
Otherwise, winds will switch with the fropa /w N winds 10-20 kt in
its wake.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  27  35  11 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  44  20  32   9 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  68  28  40  13 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  59  32  43  11 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  34  18  27   9 /  10  20   0   0
P28  55  43  43  16 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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