Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our area is in the middle of 2 competing airmasses this
afternoon. A cool airmass to the north is holding off the further
advancement of higher terrain dry downslope air that has made it
into Elkhart, Hugoton and Liberal by early this afternoon. The
HRRR and RAP13km models showed a narrow area of convective
development anywhere from Dodge City eastward through
Stafford/Great Bend and northward, corresponding to a band of
moderate CAPE values ahead of the warm front and frontal forcing
zone. Given the environmental parameters, a brief marginally
severe hail storm couldn`t be ruled out in this area during the
very late afternoon. Meanwhile, the wave responsible for
developing the large scale lift and winter storm across Nebraska
will continue lifting northeast, with some potential for rain and
snow showers to clip the northern sections of our area (namely the
I-70 corridor and the Wakeeney and Hays area). Little more than a
dusting to a half inch of snow looks possible form the most
optimistic model runs.

The area will remain under the influence of cold northerly surface
winds through the day Friday. Low level overcast clouds should
influence central Kansas through the day, however sun should be
returning from southwest to east through the day. Much of the area
won`t exceed the mid 30s for afternoon highs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Much colder temperatures returning by Saturday morning, as cold
surface high pressure settles over the area.  The entire area could
be in the the teens, with low teens in the extreme western counties.
Models indicate a slow moderation in temperatures through the early
part of next week, with a couple of westerly waves along the way
bringing outside chances for precipitation, Sunday night and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Strong low pressure system moving out of southwest into south
central Kansas early this evening. North winds gusting to 35-40
knots at the beginning of this period should diminish somewhat
after sunset but will continue at 15-25 knots overnight. MVFR to
occasional IFR cigs are expected at the terminals overnight but
should improve to VFR by Friday morning. In addition, snow showers
will be possible around the Hays terminal later this evening.


Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

It will be tough to see true red flag conditions across the extreme
northern sections of the warned area, like Scott County, northern
Finney and Lane. However farther south the conditions will easily be
met with stronger  winds than forecast earlier and the latest HRRR
model runs taking the windy dry conditions across the entire
southern tier to Barber county. Lane and Scott counties dropped
from red flag.


DDC  27  41  17  46 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  26  38  16  46 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  27  42  19  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  29  44  19  47 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  29  34  18  44 /  40  20   0   0
P28  34  46  21  47 /  10   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ063-064-



SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.