Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 292259
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS FORECAST IS LESS COMPLICATED THAN THE PAST 4 DAY SHIFTS.  A
COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING, TAKING THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT TO THE EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHILE WEAK NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP, BUT NOT TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH
THE FORECAST MAX`S OF THE MID 80S NORTH OF I-70 TO NEAR 90F
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO JOHNSON CITY, AND RANGE TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES SUCH AS PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  THESE SOUTH WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND SLIGHT
DOWN SLOPE AFFECT FROM THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGINNING TO
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO HELPING RETURN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES UNDER 500 J/KG, ENOUGH DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT EXISTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING INTO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS UNLIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND ORGANIZES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
UP INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, A +90 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE. THE
INGREDIENTS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
AS WELL. AS THE JET APPROACHES, GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING WITH SPEED VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT AND
WINDS BACKING NEAR THE SURFACE. COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES NEARING 1500 J/KG, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO STALL OUT
GENERALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT MAY BE MORE OF A FACTOR. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 80(F) FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED BY NOON AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  92  68  97 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  59  93  65  96 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  61  93  64  98 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  93  68  99 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  61  91  68  93 /  10  10  20  40
P28  66  92  69  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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