Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 271750
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas today as short
range models indicate broad upper level ridging moving across the
Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains during the period. A
fairly dry air mass in the lower/mid levels and a weak flow aloft
will hinder any precip chances through Thursday night. Well above
normal temperatures are likely today as surface troughing strengthens
across eastern Colorado returning a modest southerly flow to western
Kansas. Considering highs reached the mid to upper 70s(F) Wednesday
afternoon, look for highs to push up into the lower to mid 80s(F)
across western and portions of central Kansas Thursday afternoon.
A few upper 70s(F) are still expected across south central Kansas
where the cooler air mass will be slow to erode. The warming trend
will continue for temperatures Thursday night with lows only down
into the 50s(F) across much of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Precip chances will remain absent through the weekend as medium range
models indicate upper level ridging moving eastward across the Western
High Plains into the Central Plains early in the period. A prevailing
weak flow aloft and a slow moisture return will keep the pattern fairly
dry through Sunday regardless of a cold front projected to push into
western Kansas sometime mid to late day Saturday. The warming trend
will continue into Friday as a prevailing southerly flow draws much
warmer air northward into western Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be
expected for highs Friday afternoon with near 90F not out of the
question in some locations. The aforementioned cold front will move
into western Kansas early in the weekend halting the warming trend
across much of the region. Still, temperatures are expected to remain
well above normal with highs pushing the lower to mid 80s(F) across
southwest and central Kansas. Depending on the timing of the frontal
boundary, highs may only reach the 70s(F) across west central Kansas.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Fairly benign aviation weather will continue through the period.
The only concern will be a very strong nocturnal low level jet
developing, which will probably meet minimum for LLWS criteria in
the 09-13z time frame at GCK, DDC, and HYS. Otherwise, no
reduction in visibility and/or ceiling is forecast, as low level
moisture should remain just off to the south and east. Surface
winds will pick back up to 17 to 21 knots Friday afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 83 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 82 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 83 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 82 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 79 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0