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000
FXUS63 KDDC 150535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The main synoptic scale meteorological feature of interest was a
large open trough extending from western Ontario south through the
Upper Midwest region to eastern Oklahoma. A broad upper level ridge
axis influenced much of the West and adjacent Rockies. In the wake
of the trough across the Central Plains, mid level temperatures were
cold with the -12C 700mb isotherm as far south as northern Oklahoma
to central Missouri. 850mb temperatures were also anomalously cold
for the Southern Plains in particular with -2C at both Fort Worth
and Little Rock. The airmass was starting to modify on the central
High Plains with a slight downslope component.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Tonight:

Sfc high pressure moving across the region will lead to light winds
through the overnight. An ideal radiational cooling environment is expected
with minimums in the lower 20s (F). Some upper teens (F) cannot be ruled
out attm. Have gone with the cooler side of guidance with values in
the 20F-25F range. As a result, have issued a hard freeze warning for
the entire region. Forecast soundings show dry conditions through the
atmospheric column, so do not expect any impacts from passing/limited
cirriform clouds. No precipitation is expected.

Tomorrow:

The sfc high pressure center will shift off to the east and lee troughing
will strengthen through the day. This will allow for southwesterly winds
of 15-20 mph. Maximums in the mid 60s (F) still look reasonable at this
point. Other than the cold lows, tomorrow should be a nice Spring day
with dry conditions and comfortable temperatures prevailing. There could
be elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon. See the fire
wx section below for specific details.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A progressive upper level shortwave trough moves across the Central
Plains on Thursday from the Intermountain West on Wednesday. This
system will push a cold front across western Kansas late on
Wednesday. Wednesday highs will rise into the 60s with lows in the
mid to upper 30s on Thursday morning.

The upper trough, for Thursday, is forecast to be deeper and wetter
according to the GFS model than the new ECMWF. Model Ensemble QPF`s
are all over the place with snow amounts ranging from over 6 inches
to less than 2 inches across western Kansas. Current thoughts, with
this progressive open wave, are possibly 2 to 4 inches with the
highest amounts north, but this is very speculative at this time.
Current National Guidance is showing about 2 inches. Parts of south
central Kansas may not see much of any snow accumulations with
warmer temperatures. High temps during the day on Thursday will also
be tricky with lots of rain and snow and cloudy skies. Current
thoughts are early morning highs in the mid 30s will fall slowly to
around 30 to 32 into the afternoon with a non-diurnal temperature
trend. Warmer temperatures are forecast for part of south central
Kansas with highs in the 40s. North winds of 15 to 25 mph can be
expected. Lows on Friday morning could be in the mid to upper 20s.

For the period from Friday into next Monday, a warming trend will
ensue with highs warming from the 50s on Friday to the 70s on the
Weekend into Monday. Lows warm from the 40s to around 50. A southern
branch disturbance may bring only a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Tranquil aviation weather will prevail through the night and into
the day Tuesday as upper level high pressure ridging influences the
region. Light winds at 6 knots or less tonight will give way to a
southwest wind Tuesday as a lee trough develops across eastern
Colorado. Wind speeds will peak around 20 knots sustained from
midday through late afternoon with gusts to around 30 knots at
times. VFR will prevail under sky clear conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southwest Kansas
Tuesday afternoon in association with "warm" temperatures, breezy winds,
and moderate relative humidities. Forecast relative humidities are not
forecast to reach criteria attm (15 percent), so will not be issuing
a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  66  36  36 /   0   0  50  60
GCK  37  62  34  34 /   0   0  60  60
EHA  39  64  36  38 /   0   0  50  60
LBL  37  66  37  37 /   0   0  50  60
HYS  40  66  35  35 /   0   0  60  60
P28  40  72  43  45 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden