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000
FXUS63 KDDC 241100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Surface high pressure ridge axis (1020-1022 mb) remains sprawled
over SW KS this morning, keeping winds light and variable. Broken
to overcast midlayer clouds (near 8-10k ft) persist across the
southern 2/3 of the CWA. Thunderstorms developing along I-40 are
expected to remain south of SW KS this morning. That said, NAM and
HRRR solutions both suggest a weak shortwave embedded in the NW
flow aloft may generate a few showers and rumbles of thunder
across far SW Kansas early this morning. Whatever showers that do
materialize are expected to be gone by sunrise.

Another pleasant, comfortable day on tap for Saturday, especially
considering early summer standards. Cool/dry surface high pressure
ridge will maintain its influence on SW KS today, keeping
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal (normal for late June
is 90) and dewpoints comfortable (upper 40s to lower 50s). Another
bonus today will be much less wind than yesterday; winds today
will trend SEly as high pressure begins to weaken, but they will
remain 10 mph or less with a weak pressure gradient forecast.
Model soundings do suggest mid level moisture will remain trapped
through much of Saturday, keeping the sky mostly cloudy with
midlevel cloud decks near 8-10k ft persisting. All zones will
remain dry through the daylight hours, with surface ridging
keeping instablity absent.

Tonight, inherited some 20-40% pops for shower and thunderstorm
activity, highest in the SW zones. Some models (such as ECMWF)
suggest some convection may propogate into the western zones
courtesy of the NW flow aloft. NAM/GFS are drier, but do show
showers and storms SW of SW KS, from SE Colorado to the Texas
panhandle through late tonight. Given this arrangement, and the
tendency for NW flow to offer the occasional surprise, kept
chance/scattered category pops across the SW counties tonight.
Lows Sunday morning in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Typical early summer weather for the long term. The climatological
chance of thunderstorms on any given day this time of year is
about 25%, and the long term forecast is peppered with slight
chance to chance pops throughout. Persistent NW flow aloft, with
the strong upper high centered near Tucson, Arizona, will keep
late day/nighttime thunderstorm chances alive Sunday and Monday.
Expect a pattern change by Tuesday onward, as the Desert SW high
pressure ridge weakens, allowing the flow to become more zonal
across the central plains. This synoptic change will result in
1) the lee trough/dryline establishing and serving as a
convergence focus for convection and 2) bring hotter temperatures
back to the plains. Currently, 850 mb temps from the 00z ECMWF
suggest Wednesday will be the hottest day this coming week.
Improving southerly flow (especially Tuesday, when south winds
will gust as high as 40 mph) will allow moisture and instability
to return northward. 00z GFS depicts this process, with CAPE near
2000 J/kg across the southern zones as soon as Monday, and
2000-3000 J/kg across the entire region Tuesday. As a result, pops
from the model blend show an uptick Monday/Tuesday evenings and
were accepted. GFS shows the dryline sharpening nicely across the
eastern CWA Wednesday and Thursday, with strong CAPE in excess of
3000 J/kg along the boundary. CAPE/shear combination appear
sufficient to support rotating updrafts/supercells during this
timeframe, with large hail likely per climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Broken mid layer cloud decks around 9-10k ft AGL persist this
morning, and will continue to be persistent through much of this
TAF period. Otherwise, VFR expected through Sunday morning at all
TAF sites. Consensus of short term models indicates stratus cigs
may fall to MVFR at EHA by 12z Sun. Surface high pressure axis
over SW KS will continue to keep pressure gradients weak and winds
very light today, trending SEly at 10 kts or less by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  79  60 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  76  56  79  59 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  74  57  75  57 /  10  40  30  40
LBL  76  60  77  59 /  10  30  20  30
HYS  78  56  78  58 /  10  10  20  40
P28  82  60  84  62 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner