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000
FXUS63 KDDC 192044
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated Synopsis and Short Term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The atmosphere across North America was quite energetic with five
storm systems affecting at least some portion of North America.
Three of these disturbances were lined up from west to east along
the northern polar jet along the Canada-CONUS border. There were two
lows along the southern branch of the westerlies, with the most
impactful storm system close to home centered over the Desert
Southwest region. There was quite a bit of mid level moisture
(particularly from 12 to 20 thousand feet) from western Kansas down
into West Texas and into much of New Mexico. An important surface
boundary stretched from northeastern Nebraska down into far
west-central Kansas to a surface low across far southeastern
Colorado. Marginal Gulf of Mexico moisture was working northward
through West Texas with 850mb dewpoints in the upper single digits
(degC) and surface dewpoints from the upper 40s to lower 50s (degF)
from southwest Kansas into West Texas. As of mid afternoon, shower
and thunderstorm activity tied to the southwest low was focused on
far West Texas near the New Mexico border into central and eastern
New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

As the mean 500-700mb low approaches southwestern Kansas late
tonight into Sunday, precipitation will markedly increase. For this
evening, shower and thunderstorm activity will develop after 22Z
along the quasi-stationary from across far west-central Kansas into
southeastern Colorado. This is where the highest POPs will be 30-40
percent from Wakeeney southwest to Syracuse. Given the paltry
surface-based instability (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE), only
sub-severe convection is expected.  It will be a mild overnight with
mostly cloud skies continuing and south winds staying up in the 12
to 16 knot range. This will result in overnight lows only down to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations, especially along and east
of Highway 283 where winds will be a bit stronger through the night.

Much more numerous and organized shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected on Sunday. Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, the best
area for the most organized precipitation will likely be along a
corridor from Rolla to Meade northward to Lakin to Kalvesta and
northeast later on in the afternoon Jetmore to Ness to Hays areas. A
few locations in this region may see an excess of one-half inch of
much-need rainfall. Most areas will likely see three to five tenths
of an inch...along the deep low level convergence zone (surface to
800mb or so). Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop farther east within the zone of broad southerly low level
winds and increasing moisture. Any sort of sunshine that occurs will
destabilize the atmosphere enough to support convection with 700mb
temperatures around +2C. There may be an isolated report of
marginally severe hail in the strongest storm tomorrow, however the
thermodynamic profile does not really favor hail storms given the
poor mid level lapse rates and rather moist 500-700mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as the upper
level system moves over western Kansas and a surface cold front
shifts eastward. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central and south central Kansas with far western Kansas remaining
dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy with southerly winds ahead of the
front and northwest winds behind the front. Precipitation chances
end by sunrise Monday with clearing skies from west to east during
the day Monday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected
Monday through Tuesday night as an upper level ridge builds above
the Plains. Winds will generally be from the northeast on Monday
shifting to the south Monday night through Tuesday night. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s. Lows Monday morning
are expected to range from the upper 40s across far western Kansas
to mid 50s across central and south central Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning look to dip into the mid to upper 40s.

The next storm system enters the Western United States on Tuesday,
then shifts eastward into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. A
moderate upper level jet will be found above western Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon enhancing lift across the area. Westerly winds
will be observed in the mid levels of the atmosphere with increasing
moisture. Southerly winds will be felt at the surface due to a
trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. In addition,
a dryline is suggested by the models to develop in the afternoon
with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses. These
conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of
the dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe if the models continue
with what they are showing. A cold front then moves through western
Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Dry conditions
are then expected during the remainder of the extended period as an
upper level ridge builds above the Plains. Winds shift back to the
south by Saturday as the next storm system entered the western
United States. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to reach into the
lower to mid 80s with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to reach into the lower to mid 70s
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Surface winds will remain fairly strong this afternoon through
about 00Z with the tight pressure gradient in place as a low
continues to form across southeastern Colorado. A frontal zone
extending northeast from the low will be the focus for late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, however these
showers and storms will likely remain north and west of GCK and
even HYS. We will keep precipitation out of the TAFs this evening,
however more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
likely affect the terminals on Sunday. VFR is expected tonight
through early Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  54  72  51  75 /  20  70  50  10
EHA  51  71  49  75 /  20  60  40  10
LBL  53  73  51  77 /  10  70  50  10
HYS  57  75  56  74 /  20  60  60  10
P28  58  75  57  77 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid