Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240828
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ENCOURAGE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO NEAR 30 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S,
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS AROUND 53F ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE IN COMANCHE AND CLARK COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BY TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER A LONG-FETCH OF
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COAST. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY, AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST, AND THE PACIFIC HIGH
DIMINISHES IN SIZE. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY`S SOLUTION, AS WELL. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY, BLOW LIGHTLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THANKSGIVING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS UPPER DISTURBANCES
WILL BE SCANT AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUESDAY, AND THEN RISE TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH
A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LEVEL
OFF. LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER 20S, AND WARM TO THE
LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY OR THANKSGIVING MORNING, AND REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THERE COULD BE WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH, AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS HAVE DECREASED WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER,
BY MID-MORNING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS, BUT NOTHING LIKE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  23  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  20  53  27 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  50  23  53  30 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  52  22  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  22  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  53  23  52  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HUTTON



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