Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 291907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.

AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF KDDC. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCK AND KHYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  57  81 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  57  81  54  78 /  40  20  10  30
EHA  57  80  50  78 /  60  10   0  10
LBL  61  83  53  80 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  62  82  58  77 /  80  40  20  40
P28  63  85  63  86 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.