Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

Todays weather will be fairly benign as an upper level low pressure
system over the northern Plains moves off rapidly into the Great
Lakes region. The central High Plains will be under weak ridging
between the northern low and another strong shortwave trough currently
digging into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Low cloudiness
developing over a cold front over south central and parts of
southwest Kansas should mix out during the day. This cold front
was moving through Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle
early this morning and will become stationary just south of the
southwest Kansas region by this afternoon. Low level winds will
turn southeasterly and strengthen later this afternoon into
tonight. As the low level flow begins to pull better moisture from
eastern Kansas and Oklahoma back into the western High Plains
tonight, we should see the boundary layer begin to saturate to the
north of the warm front with area of fog and possibly some drizzle
developing. This area will be lifting north across southwest
Kansas late tonight as the warm front moves north. A few showers
or possibly an isolated thunderstorm could develop later tonight
around central Kansas where low level isentropic lift over the
frontal boundary could trigger some elevated convection. Am not
overly excited about precipitation chances tonight due to this but
will carry some small pops along I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

The aforementioned Great Basin low is progged by the short and medium
range models to move to a position along the Wyoming/Colorado
border by Tuesday afternoon. The warm front is expected to continue
lifting north into northern Kansas. The surface low in northeast
Colorado will move into northwest Kansas by Tuesday afternoon,
bringing an attendant Pacific cold front with it. Widely scattered
thunderstorms could develop along the front over south central
Kansas by mid to late afternoon. Any storms that develop in this
area will be capable of producing baseball size hail and strong to
damaging winds as well as tornadoes. The area of storm development
should generally be in the Highway 183 and 281 corridor. Storms
that develop are expected to move east out of central Kansas during
the evening hours. Later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the
upper low is expected to move east across northern Kansas.
Scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible into Wednesday morning over central and northern Kansas
under this upper low. Precipitation chances will be coming to an
end by Wednesday afternoon.

The models continue to show another upper level disturbance dropping
south along the West Coast Wednesday afternoon and closing off into
another upper low over Arizona on Thursday. As this low lifts out
toward the central part of the country later in the week, it is
expected to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across
western and central Kansas from around Thursday night through
Saturday. Temperatures will also be held down somewhat in the 60s
and lower 70s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the north to northeast this morning
shifting to the southeast this afternoon. Wind speeds look to
remain below 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  80  44 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  76  50  77  42 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  79  48  74  41 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  80  50  79  42 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  76  53  78  48 /  10  20  30  30
P28  80  57  84  53 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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