Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Precip chances pick up tonight as short range models indicate a
westerly flow aloft persisting across the Western High Plains while
a weak upper level ridge of high pressure shifts slowly east across
the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough extending
from the Pacific Northwest southward into southern California, will
begin to lift slowly northeast across the Great Basin overnight. As
it does so, lee side troughing will strengthen across eastern
Colorado, in turn enhancing a dryline as it advances eastward
into extreme southwest Kansas. A prevailing southeast upslope flow
across central and portions of southwest Kansas will continue to
draw ample moisture into the region with surface dewpoints well
into the 60s(F). As a result, Thunderstorms will be possible early
this evening as low/mid level lapse rates steepen significantly
across west central and southwest Kansas in the wake of an eroding
low level stratus deck. Instability will increase significantly
just ahead of the dryline with SBCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/KG.
Although the zonal flow aloft will remain fairly weak, short fuse
model soundings do indicate fairly decent 0-6km directional shear
supporting an increased potential for severe storms with large
hail and damaging winds the primary threat. Considering the amount
of instability and deep layer shear present, the potential does
exist for isolated tornadoes with the strongest storms through
late this evening. Any lingering thunderstorms will dissipate late
tonight into Sunday morning as they spread east-northeast into
central Kansas. Another round of thunderstorms will be possible
late Sunday afternoon as similar conditions develop.

Considering a prevailing south to southeasterly flow overnight and
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s(F) to the lower 60s(F), look for
lows only down into the 60s(F) across southwest and central Kansas
toward daybreak Sunday morning. The southerly flow across western
Kansas will persist Sunday reinforcing the warmer air mass across
the region. Widespread highs in the 80s(F) are likely Sunday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely Sunday
evening as medium range models idicate an embedded H5 vort maxima
lifting northeast across the Central Rockies early in the period.
Even as the flow aloft remains less than robust across the high
plains, a prevailing south to southeasterly flow in the lower
levels will continue to provide ample moisture and instability as
low/mid level lapse rates steepen once again late Sunday.
Strong to severe hunderstorms can be expected along and just
ahead of a dryline stalled out across extreme western Kansas. The
focus for thunderstorms will shift further east into central
Kansas Monday as a Pacific cold front is projected to push slowly
east across western Kansas throughout the day. Again, with ample
moisture present, the potential for severe storms will exist due
to increased instability and deep layer shear. Chances for precip
continue but lessen somewhat Tuesday as the frontal boundary
stalls out generally across western and central Kansas.

Considering little change is expected to the overall air mass
across the Western High Plains through the middle part of next
week, highs in the 80s(F) are likely to continue each day through
at Wednesday with lows generally in the 50s(F) and the lower to
mid 60s(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KDDC and KHYS through
late this afternoon as low level stratus continues to erode west
to east. Otherwise, VFR conditions will develop early this
afternoon at KGCK and persist through early evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are likely this evening across portions of western
Kansas, potentially affecting KGCK with brief MVFR/IFR conditions.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at KGCK, KDDC, and
possibly KHYS briefly this evening before low level stratus
redevelops across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas
late tonight. South to southeasterly winds around 20 to 30kt will
persist this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. Southerly winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating but will remain
gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  82  62  84 /  40  40  40  10
GCK  62  85  59  84 /  50  50  50  10
EHA  58  86  56  84 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  61  85  61  87 /  40  50  50  10
HYS  60  81  61  83 /  30  40  50  30
P28  62  81  64  83 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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