795
FXUS63 KDDC 061756
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two areas of thunderstorms today with a hail threat in the
afternoon and a wind threat in the afternoon and evening

- Overnight MCS potential Monday night into Tuesday morning

- Unsettled weather pattern continues for much of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

07z upper air and surface analysis shows a dying MCS roughly between
Garden City and Syracuse with an outflow boundary roughly along the
highway 183 corridor which is running into some moisture convergence
in central Kansas and developing a second area of thunderstorms
roughly near the Great Bend area.  A 594 dm high is located in the
desert southwest and the upper level flow is mainly westerly to
northwesterly.

Today we see a similar weather pattern to what just previously
happened on Saturday. Abundant lower level moisture will lead
dew points to be in the 60s to lower 70s in our eastern zones
and will combine with an area of moisture convergence due to a
remnant outflow boundary and a frontal boundary that will
develop with a surface low in eastern Colorado. With mid level
temperatures around 9-10 (C) there won`t be much if any cap for
the daytime heating to overcome and short term models have a
cluster of multi cell storms developing along the boundary
between 3-8 pm mainly along and east of highway 283. BUFKIT
soundings in the RAP and NAM show the 850 mb winds slightly
increasing around 6 pm which bumps up the 0-6 km shear to around
30 kts and this could lead to some storms producing some larger
hail from quarter to golf ball size. The other area of storms
we will watch will develop along the left exit region of a jet
streak going over the Colorado rockies this afternoon as a MCS
is expected to develop in northeast Colorado and ride the
northwesterlies into western Kansas mainly after sunset. Main
threat with this line of storms will be wind gusts potential up
to 70 mph and heavy downpours. The thunderstorms should weaken
through the overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Monday with no real change in the position of the upper level high
and the westerly jet over the Colorado rockies we should once again
see a MCS complex develop in eastern Colorado by the late afternoon.
Depending on how worked over southwest Kansas is from the previous
night storms will determine if we get any convection in the
afternoon hours with most models showing a decent cap at this point.
As a result the best opportunity for rain will come in the overnight
and reflected with 40-50% POPs.  Main threat from the overnight
storms will once again be wind gusts up to 60 mph and brief
downpours.

Long range trends continue to keep us in an unsettled weather
pattern as the dome of high pressure remains in the desert southwest
with strong westerlies over the Rockies leading to late afternoon
and overnight thunderstorm chances.  Recent trends have shown a
greater building of the ridge for Wednesday and Thursday which could
shift the westerlies far enough northward that our chances of storms
will be less and we could see a brief warming trend with highs in
the mid to upper 90s.  However a break down in the heat dome is
shown towards the end of the workweek that would introduce higher
probability of storms for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Aviation weather will be pretty good this afternoon through much
of the evening, although an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot
be ruled out given the high dewpoints, upslope surface winds,
and a weak cap. The better chance for much more organized
thunderstorm activity affecting terminals will be later on
tonight, so we will maintain PROB30 group for thunderstorms at
GCK, DDC, and HYS for a 4 to 5 hour window. Subsequent TAF
updates/amendments will need to narrow in on a more focused
window for storms duration and timing at individual airports based
on satellite and radar trends.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid