Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1151 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Stratus clouds this morning, judging by the HRRR in the immediate
timeframe and the RAP/WRF by afternoon suggest a limit to the northward
expansion of low clouds to around the K96 corridor, or generally
south of the Scott City-Ness City-Rush Center line. Also there is
some reasonably good consensus for sub-freezing highs across the
entire forecast area today, outside of the outlier WRF-NMM which
develops warmer high well above freezing over southwestern
section. In additions to the temperatures and timing/northward
extend of stratus, the onset of precipitation, at least in light
brief periods appears from the 12km WRF and to develop as early as
00 UTC, and more favored in the east or south east, certainly
qualifying as freezing drizzle or freezing rain at that time. The
greatest threat areas for any light freezing rain will be
overnight mainly along the KS/OK line.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A deeply entrenched cold surface airmass will be in place Saturday,
where the coldest axis will run from the Missouri valley into south
central Kansas and central Oklahoma. Highs out in our western
counties will may rise above freezing, maybe approaching 40 degrees
in the afternoon, however crashing quickly towards evening. Also the
WRF family of models ramp up overrunning precipitation late in the
day Saturday, still in the liquid phase as the models show very warm
temperatures aloft as warm as 5 to 7 degrees. This is already
showing it`s hand in the impressive 850 mb moisture transport field
over west Texas and the strong temperature gradient deep into se New
Mexico at this time. From that point forward it will be a matter of
periodic moderate to heavy rain bands lifting north across the
region with the warm intrusion aloft. Models continue to support a
cold surface despite shear volume of rain and potential for latent
heat release boundary layer warming. The GFS and ECMWF show
the potential for heavy freezing rain continuing into Sunday. In
fact although the GFS is on the fence for freezing temperatures
Sunday afternoon it climbs that hill from much colder morning
temperatures, while the ECMWF remains well in the freezing rain
accum zone of upper 20s. Finally, the upper low races from west
Texas toward central Kansas, eventually somewhat eroding the cold
layer across south central Kansas late Sunday, allowing a
changeover to rain. Still the upper low will continue northeast on
Sunday night, dragging the deformation axis and narrower axis of
cold air aloft farther east and likely accumulating snow across
the west.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS are expected to develop/persist through the
period as an upper level storm system approaches. Some light
freezing rain may develop at KDDC/KGCK by the end of the period
but conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly after the end
of the period with wideapread freezing rain at the TAF sites.


DDC  28  22  29  25 /  10  30  80  70
GCK  29  22  30  26 /  10  10  80  70
EHA  33  26  34  28 /  10  20  70  70
LBL  29  25  31  27 /  10  30  90  70
HYS  28  20  29  25 /   0  10  40  60
P28  31  25  30  28 /  20  50  90  80


Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.



SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.