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000
FXUS63 KDDC 240616
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 100  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  73 101  71 100 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  72 101  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  73 101  72 102 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  74 100  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
P28  74 100  75 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Russell