Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 032305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight ahead of an
upper level trough which is forecast to cross western Kansas
between 03z and 12z Tuesday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
cloud bases with these storms will vary from 2500 to 3500 ft AGL.
Timing of when the better opportunity for thunderstorms and lower
ceilings remain somewhat unclear but at this this time have
trended towards the latest RAP and HRRR. This would favor the
scattered thunderstorms in the Garden City area from 02z to 06z
Tuesday and in the Dodge City area from around 06z to near 12z
Tuesday. WInds overnight outside these thunderstorms will be south
to southeast at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  50  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  70  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert



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