Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE MAINLY ZONAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ENSURED A
CONTINUATION OF LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT NIGHT, WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE
SATURATION POINT, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED. IT WILL TAKE
THE PASSAGE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT TO DISRUPT
THIS PATTERN.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ONLY SUCCEEDING IN SHUNTING THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO A LINE FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY TO ASHLAND.
THE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE
CITY, PRATT, STAFFORD AND MEDICINE LODGE FROM GETTING OUT OF THE
40S. MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
50S FROM GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL WESTWARD.

BY LATE TONIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY 6 AM. WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NOT BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS SO THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS JET WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST
AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
SHOW AN INITIAL SHOT OF WEAK 850 MILLIBAR COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY GIVEN
THE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF AS LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF KANSAS
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY. LATER IN
THE WEEK, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS AND GEM ARE BRINGING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER
SOUTH. THE CURRENT SUPERBLEND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS WANT
TO HOLD ON TO THE STRATUS LONGER WITH NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, BUT FEEL
THIS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, PARTICULARLY LOOKING AT VIS SAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
20-30 KT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  35  51  28 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  50  33  50  25 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  57  33  50  27 /   0  10  10  20
LBL  51  34  52  28 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  48  35  50  28 /  10  20  10  10
P28  47  38  52  30 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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