Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
309 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Updated Short Term, Long Term, Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

A fairly vigorous storm system across the Great Basin continued to
move toward the Rockies very early this morning. Not much change in
the thinking this shift, and the forecast for today is largely just
an update from the previous with the exception that temperatures
will be warmer across the Red Hills portion of our forecast area.
The WRF-ARW model was preferred and followed since it handled
yesterday`s warm temperatures in the southwest the best. Barber
County should see highs in the mid 60s with a decent west-southwest
wind at 20 to 25 mph. Elsewhere, temperatures will top out in the
upper 40s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast with a gradual
shift in wind direction to the northwest by mid to late afternoon.
The track of the surface low will prevent precipitation chances
across southwest Kansas with dry downslope winds prevailing. When
winds turn around to the northwest, mid level subsidence will be
working in, and this will also prevent precipitation, so the
forecast for all areas will remain dry. It is not impossible to rule
out some sprinkles or a very light, brief rain shower, but mostly
what we will see with the mid level cold advection this afternoon
will be virga. Winds should remain around 20 mph through the Tonight
period as we remain in a fairly decent MSLP gradient, and this will
drop the wind chills to the +8 to +14F range by very early Wednesday

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

The long term forecast from Wednesday through the weekend will be a
dry one with fairly seasonal temperatures. There is no indication of
any arctic airmass coming this way with positively-tilted ridging
into the Canadian Rockies leading to sustained downslope lower
tropospheric momentum up and down the Rockies from Colorado to
Alberta. We will likely see daytime temperatures slowly recovering
to upper 40s to lower 50s by late weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

A fairly strong low pressure system will be moving across northern
Kansas on Tuesday. There is a low probability of IFR/MVFR ceiling
at HYS as some moisture wraps around the west side of the low,
however the greatest chance of poor flight category (IFR/LIFR)
is north of HYS, so for this TAF issuance, we will be keeping HYS
at VFR throughout the period. Wind shift from south to northwest
will gradually occur during the day Tuesday, with speeds varying
from 15 to 20 knots sustained, including some higher gusts at or
above 25 knots, especially in the afternoon with the northwest
winds behind the cold front.


Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon,
generally along and south of the Arkansas River to the Oklahoma
border. West southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph, gusting
to over 30 mph at times by afternoon. This will combine with
temperatures warming into the 50s to lower 60s, especially in the
Red Hills, leading to afternoon relative humidity values around 20


DDC  56  24  39  20 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  51  23  39  18 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  56  24  39  20 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  59  26  41  20 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  26  36  19 /  10  10  10   0
P28  66  29  42  23 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
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