Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY THEN THEN THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE BAJA REGION MONDAY THEN
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO
BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TUESDAY, HOWEVER, CHANCES
OF THIS OCCURRING ARE LOW. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY
MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, ACROSS THE CWA, LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
AREA WITH A STRONG JET NOSING IT`S WAY INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD EXTEND INTO THURSDAY BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE
WEATHER LOOKS MORE INTERESTING AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH TROUGHING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION AND WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH A FEW PLACES REACHING AROUND 80
DEGREES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO MID 40S MONDAY
MORNING, AND AROUND 50 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS THEN TREND
DOWNWARD INTO THE 60S BY THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS SLIDING BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTIER FROM THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
ADDED LLWS TO THE TAFS BY LATE EVENING AS 50-55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 1-2KFT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY AROUND 11-13Z. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH 35-40 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  72  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  70  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  70  40  76 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  48  72  40  76 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  49  70  37  76 /   0  10  10   0
P28  48  74  40  74 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



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