Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271143
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANCE WAS MADE TO THE EXPECTED FORECAST SNOWFALL
RANGE FOR THIS MORNING, OR THE TIMING. THE WRF-ARW AND NMM WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AROUND 3.5 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS FORM THE NAM RUN AND
GFS/EC SPECTRAL MODELS. AT THIS TIME, THE SNOWFALL IS IN THE EARLY
STAGES, HOWEVER CALLS MADE TO LOCATIONS WEST OF DODGE CITY INDICATED
SNOW WAS ALREADY COVERING THE GROUND.

ONCE THIS INITIAL EVENT OCCURS, SNOW WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF TO ONLY
FLURRIES GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING LATER TODAY. THE LAYER
WILL WARM BY TONIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE OF THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SECOND, RELATIVELY HIGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE AREA STARTING VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS SNOW RATIOS ARE NOT AS HIGH IN
THIS SECOND EVENT, WHICH THE MODELS TEND TO FAVOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
K-96 FOR A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THESE SYSTEMS EVOLVE, STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BE TURNING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM WILL BE MIGRATING NORTH FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL TO BE OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56.
THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS SHOW CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
COMING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GFS MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND,
CONSEQUENTLY, A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS
REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, ANTICIPATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM BOTH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEMS
ARE AROUND 1-3 INCHES BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED ADJUSTED UPWARD,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS
CORRECT.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS.
WARMER AIR WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE EVOLVES, THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN, OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TAKES OVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO VFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR VSBYS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOOK FOR VSBYS TO
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR OR
WILL LOWER INTO THAT CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  12  28  23 /  60  60  70  50
GCK  20  12  28  22 /  70  60  70  50
EHA  20  11  32  24 /  80  60  70  30
LBL  21  13  30  26 /  80  60  70  40
HYS  21  11  26  20 /  10  40  60  60
P28  22  13  28  23 /  50  50  80  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
KSZ061>063-074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD


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