349
FXUS63 KDDC 100833
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will reach close to 100 degrees today, with heat
  indices only in the upper 90s given the much drier air.

- A line of dry t-storms (limited rain) with potentially
  damaging winds is expected this evening.

- There are chances for t-storms Friday and Friday night ahead
  of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

An upper level disturbance will approach the high plains today,
with south winds increase to 20-30 mph in advance of the system.
A plume of dry and hot air is advancing downslope early this
morning on 40 kt southwest winds at 850 mb. This potentially
hot air mass will mix to the surface today as surface winds
increase to 20-30 mph, resulting in hot but dry conditions. Low
level moisture has been slow to "mix out" this summer due to the
lack of downslope flow and frequent rainfall. But with deep
vertical mixing today on the high plains, higher dewpoints will
be confined to eastern Kansas. T-storms will form on the
western high plains in the afternoon and progress into western
Kansas by 6-7 pm and to Ness City and Dodge City by 10 pm. Given
surface temperatures near 100 and relative humidity values of
20-25%, cloud bases will be around 8000 ft AGL. CAPE values
will be less than 1000 j/kg, with lifted indices of around -4.
Given these conditions, large hail will not occur; but wind
gusts of 60-70 mph are likely out ahead of the rain or virga
(hydrometeors not reaching the ground). Precipitation amounts
with these storms (or showers) should be low (.25" or less).
Many places that experience high winds may not get more than a
sprinkle of rain, or perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. This
idea is bolstered by the various ensemble means such as the EPS
that indicate rain amounts of only .01 to .2". The storm line
will weaken when it moves eastward away from elevated terrain as
potential temperatures drop off and diurnal cooling sets in.
This is especially true today since instability will be driven
more by high potential temperature rather than high moisture
content. Therefore, surface based CAPE values will begin to
drop after sunset to just a few hundred j/kg or less by 10 pm.
As a result, the strength of the storm line and magnitude of
surface wind gusts will gradually drop during the evening as
the line progresses into Dodge City and Ness City. Areas west of
Dodge City including Ulysses, Scott City, Syracuse and Lakin
stand the highest chance of experiencing severe wind gusts of
60-70 mph, with gusts of 50-55 mph more likely father east.

An upper level trough traversing the northern plains Friday
will shove a cold front into western Kansas Friday night.
Meanwhile, the southern stream trough will be progressing into
central Kansas by afternoon. Ahead of the cold front there are
chances for thunderstorms during the day Friday into Friday
night, with the best chances for significant rain closer to the
upper level trough axis over central Kansas. The storms could be
marginally severe, with large hail and damaging winds. These
storms won`t be as "high based" as the previous day`s storms due
to expected higher moisture content and slightly lower
temperatures. Therefore, brief heavy rains are possible,
particularly for central Kansas locations such as Pratt and St.
John. Drier air will move into western Kansas by Saturday, with
any leftover showers moving out. Some of the ensemble guidances
keeps moisture across the southern tier of Kansas so that rain
chances can`t be ruled out even into midday Saturday for
locations such as Medicine Lodge and Liberal.

After the southern stream disturbance passes Saturday, the
ensemble means suggest that upper level heights will stay a
little lower across the southern plains than father east or
west. This will keep chances for showers and t-storms going
across the southern plains. How far north this precipitation
gets is very uncertain. The bottom line is that it should be
drier even through Sunday and Monday, especially along the I-70
corridor. But chances for non-severe t-storms are a little
higher as you get closer to the Oklahoma state line. There is
still no evidence that a strong upper level ridge of high
pressure will build across the central plains any time soon. The
various models have been showing such a pattern; but it keeps
getting pushed out further in the future. Until persistent upper
level ridging occurs, day after day after day of 100+ degree
weather that we experience during some summers will not occur.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

South winds will increase to 20 kts today ahead of an upper
level disturbance. A line of t-storms will develop across far
western Kansas around 23-00z and progress eastward. All of the
TAF sites may be affected by this storm line for about 1 hour
between 02 and 05z, with winds 30-40 kts from the west and local
gusts to 50 kts. Given the expected high cloud bases, visibility
will likely not be affected, except for perhaps a very brief
period during the heaviest rain.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch