Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212111
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TONIGHT:

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE/MIX OUT WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MINOR WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND LIFT IS ACROSS
NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS ROUGHLY FROM JETMORE TO MED LODGE
AND POINTS NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY
FOR THE AM.

TOMORROW:

NEXT CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOMORROW.
ALL THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP ANY PRECIP INTO COLORADO, SO
HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE PRIMARY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST WERE ON TUESDAY AS A MASSIVE
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. ALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH EACH RUN
REGARDING THE KINEMATIC AND MASS FIELDS, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT ON
WESTERN KANSAS WEATHER BEING HIGH WIND.  THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH WIND EVENT...ENOUGH SO THAT WE HAVE DECIDED TO
GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DAY TUESDAY (IN COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBOR NWS GOODLAND TO THE NORTH). THE ECMWF, CANADIAN GEM,
AND BOTH VERSIONS OF THE GFS (OPERATIONAL 40KM AND EXPERIMENTAL
13KM) SHOW A VERY INTENSE HEIGHT GRADIENT AT BOTH 850 AND 700MB WITH
WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 SUGGESTED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THESE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE, PARTICULARLY AT 700MB,
WITH ASSOCIATED VERY LIGHT QPF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE ADDED
IN INTERMITTENT FLURRIES DURING THE DAY GIVEN THIS LATEST TREND.

AFTER TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE A RAPID TRANSITION TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AS BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, THOUGH, FOSTERING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE BY
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH A TRACK TO THE NORTH KEEPING ALL
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME, THE GRIDS WILL REFLECT A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE
CHANGED, THOUGH, SHOULD THIS STORM DIG FARTHER SOUTH.

LOOKING WAY OUT IN THE LONG RANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR, THERE
IS SOME INTERESTING CONNECTION AMONG THE VARIOUS LONG TERM GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...ALL SHOWING ROBUST RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UP INTO ALASKA AND ADJACENT FAR WESTERN CANADA. THIS
LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING WESTERN KANSAS, IN THE
ROUGHLY DEC 30 TO JAN 2 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS WANT
TO HOLD ON TO THE STRATUS LONGER WITH NO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, BUT FEEL
THIS MIGHT BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, PARTICULARLY LOOKING AT VIS SAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
20-30 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  51  28  38 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  33  50  25  38 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  50  27  39 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  34  52  28  39 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  35  50  28  37 /  20  10  10  10
P28  38  52  30  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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