Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
119
FXUS63 KDDC 170006
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Surface high pressure will be centered over eastern KS by this
evening, and winds across western KS will become light and variable,
picking up into the 10 to 15 mph range overnight as the surface
pressure gradient develops. With south winds around 10 knots early
Wednesday morning, and temperatures falling into the single digits,
wind chill indices will still fall well below zero across most of the
area. The coldest readings are likely across central Kansas, (Hays-
Pratt) in the -10 to possible as low as -15 somewhere briefly. Light
southerly winds persist through the day Wednesday, as model
consensus warms highs to near 50 near the Colorado line.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

The warming trends will continue through late week, with the warmest
temperatures expected on Friday (widespread 60s), as a shortwave
upper ridge moves across the High Plains region. The GFS and ECMWF
have both modeled a vigourous synoptic scale system to impact the
central High Plains by Sunday, with a well defined banded snow
event best located across northwest/northcentral Kansas into the
Missouri Valley of NE/IA/SD. The models are also showing a strong
surface low with strong post frontal surface winds, suggesting
even light snow amounts could have more impacts. However, a quick
moving system as it is currently shown, there will not be a
significant cold airmass behind it as the winds are most likely to
be westerly downsloping behind the system. Currently the models
focus snow amounts across the northwest half of the forecast
area, with the latest 12Z GFS run becoming more robust on snow
production for western Kansas. ECMWF maintains a farther north
track for the heavier banding, over Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Winds will become southerly at 8-10kts as a surface trough
develops in the lee of the Rockies. VFR conditions can be
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   5  41  19  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   6  42  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  12  47  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   7  45  18  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   2  37  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
P28   4  37  17  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.