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000
FXUS63 KDDC 030951
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2013

...Updated synopsis, short term and fire weather discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

The 00z upper air analysis showed a 120 knot jet at 250 millibars
extending from the northern Great Basin over the central High Plains
into Missouri and Arkansas. At the 500 millibar level, strong west
northwesterly flow extended across the lower 48 states. An upper
level low pressure system over northern Idaho was in the base of an
east-west oriented upper trough. This system was sagging southward
through the Pacific northwest as evident in the water vapor imagery
and strong height falls along the west coast. At the surface, a cold
front extended from the upper Midwest into far northern Nebraska
back into western Wyoming. this front was the leading edge of some
very cold Canadian air as temperatures over the northern plains were
in the teens and lower 20s early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Low level moisture was slowly advecting northward into south central
and southeast Kansas early this morning. This was manifesting itself
as areas of locally dense fog across north central Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model is
suggesting that fog could be developing into the Medicine Lodge and
Pratt areas by around sunrise and continue into this morning before
burning off. Will add some areas of locally dense fog to the gridded
forecast for a few hours this morning

The upper low and trough over the northern Rockies will continue to
dig south and southeast today. All of the 00z models have slowed the
passage of the front across western Kansas from previous runs. Ahead
of the front, westerly winds will develop today across far southwest
Kansas. This will likely help boost temperatures to near or around
70 in locations from Johnson and Elkhart to around Liberal. Have
raised high temperatures several degrees in that area as well as a
few degrees more around Garden City and Dodge City. With less of a
downslope component expected over central and south central Kansas,
highs should top out in the low to mid 60s.

The cold front should be moving to a position along I-70 by sunset
and then continuing south through the remainder of south central and
southwest Kansas by around or shortly after midnight. Gusty north
winds will develop tonight and there could be a period of time
behind the front that winds are approaching or meeting advisory
criteria. For now will let the next shift assess any need for wind
headlines tonight. Colder air and stratus will push south across
western Kansas overnight. Temperatures should range from around 20
over west central and far southwest Kansas to the mid 20s over south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

A strong cold front will push south into Oklahoma Tuesday night. A
tight surface pressure gradient north of this front will be located
across western Kansas during the overnight hours. Given this surface
pressure gradient, strong cold air advection, and 900-850mb mean
wind speeds in the 30 to 40kt range wind speeds early Tuesday night
the developing north winds may approach wind advisory criteria for a
few hours. These strong winds will then begin to gradually subside
after midnight, however sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph will
be possible across western Kansas through Wednesday night.

In addition to the gusty winds, much colder air will be invading
western Kansas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Mean 900-850mb 24hour
temperature change varies from 10C to around 15C from 00z Wednesday
to 00z Thursday. Temperatures will continue to drop several more
degrees from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday with a straight 00z Friday
850mb mix down temperature from the GFS across western Kansas
suggesting highs will range from 17F to around 22F degrees. At the
same time this cold air advection will occurring across western
Kansas, isentropic lift and moisture advection will be improving
just above this cold layer from Wednesday through early Thursday.
Given the expected cloud cover  along with cold near surface
temperatures on Thursday have decided to undercut guidance and favor
the cooler ECMWF. Will therefore favor highs on Thursday only around
15 degrees in western Kansas. South central Kansas will be slightly
warmer with highs around 20. Lows Thursday night are expected to
fall back into the 5 to near 15 degree range with the colder
overnight lows being located across west central Kansas.

Bitter cold wind chills will be the main hazard from Wednesday night
through Thursday night given the gusty winds and unseasonably cold
temperatures. Wind chill values each night are expected to fall back
into the -5F to around -10F degree range. On Thursday afternoon wind
chill values are expected to be mainly in the single digits.

Snow can also be expected across western Kansas from Wednesday night
through Thursday night. At this time it appears that light snow will
develop across portions of western Kansas early Wednesday night as
moisture and isentropic lift improves. An area more favorable for
measurable snowfall late Wednesday night and Thursday will be
across west central and portions of north central Kansas given the
location of the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak
and a 700mb deformation zone. At this time exact snow amounts are
unclear given the uncertainly of exactly where features will be
located Wednesday night and Thursday, however at this time it
appears that a couple of inches of snowfall will be possible between
Wednesday night and late Thursday.

The snow will taper off Thursday night as an upper level trough
crosses the plains late week. As this system exits the Central
Plains, another upper level low will be dropping south out of Canada
and into northwest United States. This next system is currently
forecast to move into the Rockies over the weekend period and this
will being another chance for snow to western Kansas either Saturday
night or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites across central and
southwest Kansas through much of this period. Look for winds to
increase by late morning at Dodge City and Garden City with gusts
to around 20 knots from the west. Winds will diminish by late
afternoon but then a strong cold front will push through the area
from around 23z-02z. Winds will increase from the north with gusts
to around 30 knots behind the front. MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings
will also develop within a few hours after frontal passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Westerly winds will increase later this morning into the early
afternoon hours over far southwest Kansas. Somewhat drier air will
advect into the area from the west. There could be a period of time
where relative humidity values drop into the upper teens with winds
gusting to near 25 mph in the area along and west of a Garden City
to Meade line but it appears that Red Flag conditions will not be
met.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  23  31  10 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  67  21  29   9 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  68  20  29  11 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  71  23  31  12 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  62  21  31  10 /   0   0   0  20
P28  66  27  37  16 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard