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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

...Updated Long Term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

The focus for the short term forecast timeframe will include
potential for elevated heat indices this afternoon and convection
along a cold frontal boundary moving into west central Kansas late
this late afternoon and early evening.

Given the possibility for moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
cold front across northwest Kansas this afternoon, and recent poor
model handling of surface moisture field we`ve used the GFS local
MOS for areal coverage of dew points and raised values a couple of
degrees. Drier air over far west central Kansas will promote a
better chance for widespread temperatures reaching around a hundred
degrees and higher. A heat advisory was expanded north through Rush
and Ellis counties, playing in effect the climatological typical
pattern for highest heat indices episodes, and as much being
skeptical of the models depiction of drying out dew points as much
or as fast as advertised.

A weak surface trough and cold front will be the focus for chances
for surface based thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early
evening, spreading form the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and
focusing along the frontal convergence zone, posing an isolated
severe wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

The climatological mid-upper tropospheric summer ridge that finally
became established this week will slowly lose its identity as
another eastern North America longwave trough develops. This will
force the upper anticyclone west to far southwestern CONUS with
northwest flow aloft returning to the central and even southern
Great Plains come mid next week. We will have one more hot day
Saturday with widespread 99 to 103F for highs. An isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible along the initial wind shift
convergence axis late in the day, but lack of deep tropospheric
forcing for ascent and deep frontogenesis will likely prevent any
organized convection. Sunday will be slightly cooler with the first
surface high push south into the Central Plains. Post-frontal
upslope will develop with quite a bit of convection likely
developing across the central/southern Rockies of Colorado into
northern New Mexico. We will have POPs only in the southwestern
zones late Sunday into Sunday Night, generally southwest of a
Syracuse to Plains line.

The low level frontogenetic zone from southern Colorado into the
Texas Panhandle will keep the focus for precipitation in this area
(and perhaps into far southwest Kansas) Monday. While the forecast
continues to call for mid 80s everywhere Monday, the forecast highs
may need to be lowered particularly across far southwest Kansas. The
ECMWF keeps temperatures in the 70s all day from Johnson to Elkhart
to Liberal. Another MCS may develop upstream over the higher terrain
and roll slowly southeast across the same areas Monday Night into
early Tuesday. Shortwave energy will enter the Rockies Tuesday which
will enhance lift and lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis leading
to a larger area of more organized convection. The forecast of cool
and wet continues to look good from Tuesday Night into Wednesday,
especially across far southwestern Kansas. There could be
significant amounts of precipitation during this entire stretch from
Sunday through Wednesday across portions of the southern/central
High Plains, perhaps including some of southwestern Kansas. The
AllBlend guidance of Likely POPs Tuesday Night look good. High POPs
may eventually need to be extended into Wednesday...along with much
lower temperatures. Both 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF show
midday/afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s
Wednesday...not too dissimilar to the cool wave we had back on July
15-17.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. There could be some cirriform
blow off from convection farther upstream through the overnight. Additional
convection is possible tomorrow evening, however, confidence is not
high enough to put cb/tsra/vcts groups in for now. Will defer to later
TAF issuances since we are obviously outside the 6 hr critical TAF
pd and towards the end of the 24 hour regular pd. Should be pretty isolated
though. Southerly winds veering southwesterly and eventually northwest/northerly
by tomorrow afternoon. Magnitudes 12-25 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  72 101  73 /  20  20  10  10
GCK 101  69 100  71 /  20  30  20  20
EHA 103  70 101  71 /  20  20  10  20
LBL 104  72 103  72 /  20  10  10  20
HYS 101  72 100  72 /  20  20  10  20
P28 101  75 103  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden