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000
FXUS63 KDDC 180528
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Overnight water vapor and RAP analysis showed mid level PV anomaly
with associated mesoscale convective system (MCS) across south
central Nebraska into far north central KS. This activity will
continue to fester through much of the overnight hour, but this wave
will continue to pull away from our region, thus no impacts are
expected. Will continue some slight chance POPs in Ellis County,
though, as a few very small showers will form and dissipate through
the overnight.

Later on today will be the first of a multi-day stretch of hot
weather. It will also be the most humid of all the days, as it
appears now, so heat indices will likely reach advisory criteria for
Excessive Heat (105 degrees). This shift inherited an advisory for
Trego and Ellis County and this looks pretty good, although Trego
may fall just below as a model consensus of dewpoints show them
dropping to the lower to mid 60s by 21z when the 100-degree
temperatures occur. This will also be the case across much of the
rest of southwest and south central KS. We may add in Rush, Pawnee,
Stafford after the issuance of this Short Term AFD, as these
counties show 104-105 heat indices with higher dewpoints at 21z.
Other than that, no other major issues with the forecast this shift.
Winds were bumped up just a little bit via CONSMOS guidance, with
late afternoon speeds in the 15-20 mph range, gusts 25-309 at times
like yesterday (winds were stronger than forecast yesterday).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Our region will be on the western periphery of the much higher
apparent temperatures/oppressive heat expected into the latter half
of the week. An excessive heat watch will be issued to the east of
our area, however we will start out with a heat advisory Tuesday and
assess the setup going forward as the confidence in our areas of KS
requiring excessive heat warnings is not as high. As of now the
blended forecast reduces the dew points each successive day,
which will have large impacts on the apparent temperature later in
the week. Overnight lows nevertheless remain very warm, in the
mid 70s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Fairly quiet aviation forecast through Wednesday as hot summer
weather continues. A rather strong low level jet at 45-50 knots
around 2000 to 3000 feet will lead to marginal LLWS conditions, but
this will cease by daybreak. Surface winds will increase to 16 to 20
knots by midday with gusts in the mid 20s during the afternoon. No
thunderstorms are forecast for the terminals through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 100  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  71  99  71  99 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  69 100  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  71 100  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  73 101  73 101 /  30   0  10   0
P28  72 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid