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000
FXUS63 KDDC 090643
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Well, this morning will start out with a few non-severe storms
moving up from Oklahoma, along and near a boundary layer axis
getting pushed north by a low level jet.  Both the NAM and ECMWF
models were showing a 25 to 35 knot 850mb jet from 12z-18z this
morning.  The existing 20 to 30 percent PoPs across out southeast
half seems appropriate, as the current activity in Oklahoma is
scattered at most.  Then this afternoon, the real show should start,
as a warm front advances east-northeast from New Mexico, and a upper
wave brings some cool air aloft over western Kansas.  The NAM model
is a bit more unstable than the ECMWF or GFS models, showing MuCape
values in the 1800-2200 J/kg by 00z across our northeastern half,
where as, at the same time the ECMWF model is showing 1200-1600
J/kg.  The respective Bulk Shear values were 22-25Kts for the NAM
and 20-23kts for the ECMWF model.  Thus, I have to agree with the
SPC Day 1 outlook for slight chances for severe storms across most
our our area.  Will add possible severe wording to the zones late
this afternoon and evening, and possibly as late as midnight.  My
first guess will be up to golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70
mph, which will be reflected in the HWO.  I did not change the
forecast Highs today, figuring varying clouds conditions and with a
warm front advancing through, highs will end up with mid 90s
southwest to upper 80s northeast, near the Hays area.

Tonight will see that upper level trough migrating east, and the
precipitation will slowly end in the west.  The eastern zones will be
the last to have the thunderstorms clear to the east, probably just
after sunrise Thursday.  Minimum temperatures should fall into the
mid 60s to near 70 degree range.  Winds will start out south at 12
to 16 mph, but settle to around 9 to 11 knots toward Thursday
morning.

On Thursday, there may be a few storms in our eastern zones early,
but most of the day Thursday will be precipitation-free.  A long
southerly fetch of winds in the 15 to 20 mph range will bump up
maximum temperatures Thursday into the middle 90s to near 100F
degrees.  Not many clouds are expected in the afternoon, so full
sunshine will be in force.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Wednesday Night precipitation chances are a challenge, as a
surface-based MCS may evolve through the late evening hours as it
rolls southeast across southwest Kansas. We will have to watch for
some at least marginally severe storms through the mid to late
evening hours. Additional storms may form in the 800-700mb warm
frontogenetic zone across central and south-central Kansas in the
06-12Z time frame. The flow aloft will become a bit more westerly
with ridge building across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle
Thursday. The effective surface front will be north of the southwest
Kansas region, and we will be keeping the forecast dry, as a result,
Thursday and Thursday Night. Temperatures should warm fairly
markedly into the upper 90s for highs, especially west of Highway 83
where dewpoints will be lower and subsequent mixing will be a bit
more prevalent. The ridging will be increased Friday with more areas
seeing 98 to 100F for highs more than likely as 850mb temperatures
reach +28 to near +30F by 00z Sat. Friday evening POPs will be
confined to just the far southwest and west-central Kansas zones
where a lee trough will be the focus for widely scattered
surface-based thunderstorm development.

As we go into the weekend, another hot day is anticipated Saturday,
but the weak frontal zone will slowly shift south. The ECMWF and
Canadian GEM models are most aggressive with the frontal push
Saturday with convective signal from the Canadian model well into
southwest Kansas. This may be a bit too aggressive of an initial
push by this model, as the GFS keeps the surface low up in
west-central Kansas and very warm 850mb temperatures still in place
across much of west central and even northwest Kansas. On the larger
scale, significant jet stream amplification will be occurring late
in the weekend and especially into next week, with a very
anomalously deep gyre expected to grip the Great Lakes region into
southeastern Ontario. The flow making up this large, longwave low
will reach the central Great Plains, with a fairly strong front
(definitely strong by mid-July standards), moving into Kansas by
early next week. The period July 16-19 may be marked by rather cool
temperatures and above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

Flight conditions will be VFR throughout this TAF period. Light
and variable winds will start this night, and winds should become
south at around 15 knots by 16-17z. Some clouds will pass
overhead, but they will mainly be mid level clouds around bkn110.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  68  97  73 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  91  67  98  73 /  10  30  10  10
EHA  94  70  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  94  69  99  73 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  89  67  95  73 /  10  30  20  10
P28  90  69  96  75 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burke