Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200731
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Southwesterly mid to high level flow was increasing across the
plains ahead of a shortwave trough. Ridging has moved into
Mississippi Valley. This system will interact with low pressure
in Eastern Colorado, in addition to a surface high over the
Tennessee Valley. This will in turn strengthen the pressure
gradient over Western Kansas and create gusty conditions through
Friday night. Increasing moisture and gusty wind will cause lows
tonight to stay in the mid to lower 50s. Tomorrow morning, a
series of H5 vorticity maxs flow into Southwest Kansas. While
instability is minimal, H85 moisture continues to increase
throughout the region. Confidence is low, but agreed with
neighboring offices to leave small POPs in the forecast for rain
showers east of Meade/La Crosse line. High on Friday will reach
80s to the west and mid- 70s toward Central Kansas due to an
increase in cloud cover tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Thunderstorm chances bump up a little Saturday as a progressive
upper level trough pushes through the Intermountain West into the
Western High Plains early in the period. In response, surface low
pressure will develop and strengthen lee of the Rockies while a
sharpening dryline edges slowly eastward into southwest Kansas.
Meanwhile, moisture will continue to advect northward ahead of the
dryline with surface dewpoints reaching into the lower to mid
60s(F), particularly across south central Kansas. Taking into
account the timing and positioning of the fast approaching front,
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
boundary as it pushes into increased instability more readily
available in south central Kansas. Favorable shear profiles and
sufficient dynamics aloft in the form of a +70kt jet may be
enough to support strong to marginally severe thunderstorms before
they quickly move off to the east with the front. A quieter pattern
will return Sunday as much drier air filters into western Kansas
in wake of the aformentioned frontal passage and is reinforced by
yet another cold front moving through early next week.

More seasonable temperatures can be expected across western Kansas
Saturday as much cooler air filters southward across the high plains
in wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs are only expected to reach
up into the 60s(F) from west central Kansas to portions of southwest
Kansas. Highs should still climb into the 70s(F) ahead of the front
in south central Kansas before it moves through later in the
afternoon. A brief warming trend will ensue Sunday as surface high
pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies southeast into the South
Plains setting up a westerly downslope flow across western Kansas.
Expect highs to reach back up into the lower to mid 70s(F) Sunday
afternoon with slightly warmer highs Monday before another cold
front pushes through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
evening. South winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western Kansas
overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across southeast Colorado. South winds will then increase 25 to 35kt
through early Friday afternoon as the lee side trough strengthens
near and along the Colorado border. Wind gusts up to 40 to 45kt
will be possible mid to late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  58  69  39 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  82  52  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  50  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  83  56  68  36 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  80  59  67  38 /  10  10  20   0
P28  75  63  75  43 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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