Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 281953
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Updated to increase thunderstorm coverage across the NE zones
(near Hays) through 7 pm. MCS entering NW Kansas is intensifying,
and expect SPC to issue a severe thunderstorm watch shortly
as these storms head SE. Additional storms will develop in
eastern Colorado, where instability has increased (MLCAPE over
2000 J/kg). Most CAMs and short term models still forecast a
significant complex with damaging winds across SW KS this evening.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Atmosphere recovering and destabilizing quickly this afternoon,
with dewpoints climbing and SE winds reestablishing. Expect
airmass will be primed for another thunderstorm complex by 7 pm.
Ongoing convection across NW Kansas and SW Nebraska muddles the
picture a bit, but with time the picture is getting clearer.
Ongoing storms are expected to be largely inconsequential for
SW KS, with new vigorous storm development expected in NE Colorado
by midafternoon. High confidence that convection will again
organize upscale into a large/severe MCS and reach the northern
zones around 7 pm. Models are in excellent agreement tracking the
MCS southward across SW KS this evening. Synoptic situation, with
increasing NWly 500 mb flow to near 40 kts this evening, is highly
favorable for a well-maintained MCS through early Friday morning.
Kept thunderstorm coverage in the likely/definite category tonight
and continued a mention of damaging winds through about midnight.
Many fairs with outdoor festivities begin this evening. Keep
abreast of the changing thunderstorm situation this evening,
especially if planning on being outdoors away from shelter.
Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph are possible this evening.
Friday...Cooler. Post-MCS airmass will preside across SW KS, with
residual convective debris clouds and lingering rain showers.
Between the cloud cover and winds maintaining an easterly
component through the day, temperatures will be noticeably cooler
Friday, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 80s. Areas of
low stratus clouds may linger much of Friday morning. Expectation
is for atmosphere to be thoroughly worked over from tonight`s MCS,
with available CAPE very limited for further convective
redevelopment Friday afternoon. As such, kept pop grids
conservative, and emphasized rain showers in the grids as opposed
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Little time spent on long term, with emphasis on short term severe
threat. Previous forecast thinking of increasingly hot afternoons
and dwindling rain chances remains valid. Afternoon highs return
to normal Saturday, with upper 90s to near 100 by Monday as heights
rise and the atmosphere warms. All zones dry Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper high sets up near the Ozarks, to the
east of SW KS. Resulting SW flow aloft will try to pull monsoon
moisture in from the Desert SW, warranting a return of limited
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Atmosphere will continue to recover from last night`s convection
this afternoon, with SE surface winds becoming reestablished
through 00z Fri. High confidence of another thunderstorm complex
affecting aviation starting around 00z near HYS, and progressing
south to impact GCK/DDC by 02z. Included convective TEMPO groups
in the 18z TAFs using this NAM timing as a guide. Primary threat
will be strong to severe outflow winds as high as 60-70 kts.
Current thinking is most convection will be south of the TAF sites
by 09z Friday. Stratus and areas of -SHRA to persist in the post-
MCS airmass Friday morning, but uncertain how low cigs will be.
Hedged at 4k ft AGL for now. Surface winds expected to maintain an
easterly component Friday, with convective potential much reduced
in the cooler airmass.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 84 66 91 / 90 30 30 20
GCK 65 84 65 90 / 80 20 30 20
EHA 66 86 64 95 / 30 20 30 20
LBL 67 88 66 95 / 50 20 30 20
HYS 65 81 65 87 / 70 30 20 20
P28 68 85 69 92 / 80 40 40 20