Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Dry conditions are likely through early this evening as a weak westerly
flow aloft prevails during the period along with a lack of low/mid level
instability. However, an outside chance for precip exists late tonight
as short range models indicate a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting out
of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains. Although any instability
will remain fairly minimal, a developing easterly upslope flow combined
with a strengthening westerly flow aloft may be enough to support isolated
areas of light rain across portions of western Kansas, generally after
midnight. Based on weak QPF signals, little if any appreciable rainfall
is expected.

A broad surface high across the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest
will help usher cooler air into the high plains today with H85 temperatures
dropping well into the single digits(C) across central and much of southwest
Kansas this afternoon with near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering
increasing cloud cover during the period, look for highs only up into
the 50s(F) across central and portions of southwest Kansas this afternoon
with the lower to mid 60s(F) still expected in south central Kansas
and possibly extreme southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border.Lows
tonight are expected down into the 30s(F) across west central Kansas
to the 40s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Although mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected to persist within an
east to southeasterly upslope flow across the high plains Wednesday,
generally dry conditions are forecast across extreme western Kansas
as any areas of light rain/drizzle associated with H5 vort maxima moving
across the area are expected to push off to the east by mid day. However,
periods of light precip may linger across central Kansas during the
day while possibly redeveloping westward into west central and southwest
Kansas Wednesday night as low/mid level moisture really begins to lift
back into the area.

A more significant chance for precip will be late Thursday as medium
range models show a strong upper level trough of low pressure pushing
off the Pacific into the Desert Southwest early in the period, setting
up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western
High Plains. Meanwhile, developing surface low pressure lee of the
Rockies will strengthen in response to the approaching upper level
system, in turn leading to an intensifying southerly flow across
the high plains, and subsequently a developing dryline. Additionally,
an intensifying upper level jet core is projected to pivot the axis
of the approaching trough and lift northeast across the South Plains
of west Texas into the high plains of western Kansas creating sufficient
dynamic support aloft. As a result, thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the dryline late Thursday afternoon and evening as
it pushes eastward. The potential for severe storms may need to be
considered with increasing instability. Drier conditions are likely
by the weekend as the strong upper level system kicks off to the east
while upper level ridging moves out of the Rockies into the Western
High Plains.

A warming trend will begin Wedneday, at least across our extreme
southwest, as a departing surface high across the Great Lakes and
a developing lee side trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado
sets up a southerly flow across the area. This will draw warmer
air back into extreme southwest Kansas with H85 temperatures well
up into the teens(C) to near 20C while cooler air will be slower
to erode in central Kansas. Highs are expected up into the 60s(F)
to possibly the lower 70s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday
afternoon with the 50s(F) holding on in central Kansas. Strong
warm air advection will push highs well into the 70s(F) Thursday
afternoon with a few lower to mid 80s(F) not out of the question.
Cooler temperatures will return Friday, particularly to west central
and portions of southwest Kansas, as a cold front begins pushing
into the western part of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through late Tuesday
afternoon. Northeasterlry winds 10 to 20kt will persist through
Tuesday afternoon as surface high pressure remains across the
Northern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  37  59  44 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  58  36  63  44 /   0  20   0  20
EHA  64  38  69  46 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  63  37  66  45 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  58  35  53  43 /   0  30   0  30
P28  63  41  59  48 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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