Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
147 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY FROM JUST
WEST OF TOPEKA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NEAR ANTHONY, KS AND THEN FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
AND SPREADING OUT TODAY JUST EAST OF THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST THROUGH OUR CWA,
AND CROSSED DDC AT 1952Z. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT IN
OUR EASTERN CWA THAN IN THE WEST, BUT STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A CONVERCENCE BOUNDARY TO INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME, I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE NAM AND
HRRR MODELS BOTH SHOWING AROUND 1200 TO 1400 J/KG OF MUCAPE THIS
EVENING, AND THE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 18 TO 22 KNOT RANGE.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWN BURST WINDS
IN THE 50 MPH RANGE. I HAVE MIGRATED THE 50-60 PERCENT POPS FROM
DDC TO PTT FROM 22Z TO 02Z. ALSO, THERE IS AN UPPER POOL OF COLD
AIR COMING IN FROM COLORADO THIS EVENING, AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER OFF THE COLD POOL IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THE HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN 2-TIER OF
COUNTIES, WHERE THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE, DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
HIGHER IN OUR EAST. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS OF THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WHICH AFFECTED NESS, SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER COLD POOL WILL HELP TO DE-STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE, AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS MORNING,
ALONG WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL.  THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT VERSUS THE THUNDERSTORM TYPE.  WILL STILL
MENTION THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER, BECAUSE IT
WON`T TAKE MUCH OF AN UPDRAFT TO UPGRADE A SHOWER INTO A
THUNDERSTORM. BY 12Z, MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED
INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES, AND OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 18Z
FRIDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH MINS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
IN OUR EASTERN CWA FROM HAYS TO MEDICINE LODGE.  FRIDAY`S
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MATCH TODAY`S MAX TEMPS VERY SIMILARLY, AND BE
BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE WITH IT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WE HAVE TONED DOWN/ELIMINATED POPS (ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY FRIDAY) WITH A DRY FORECAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK FRONT
(NEARLY INDISTINGUISHABLE IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS) WILL PUSH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY RETURNING
TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, IT WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S). A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC JET, WITH SOME SEASONAL
CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS, WILL BE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER WILL PROBABLY
AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND WE WILL CARRY SOME 20 POPS OVERNIGHT IN
THESE AREAS FOR THAT REASON. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE PACIFIC JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUB-1000MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR ELKHART. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY HOT DOWNSLOPE
PLUME SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW (+32C AS
FAR NORTHEAST AS A LIBERAL-GARDEN CITY LINE). THIS WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY
SUPPORT 100-DEGREE HIGHS, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 96F
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES SHOULD THIS SIGNAL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY LINE CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET EXIT
REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THEREWITH FAIRLY GOOD
CAPE/SHEAR COMBO ALONG THE FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AFTER THIS STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE QUICKLY BY MID-WEEK, SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAIRLY ROBUST WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES MID-WEEK AS THERE IS A DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF OF 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +28 TO +30C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE WAS NARROW BAND OF STRATUS WHICH FORMED THIS MORNING,
STRETCHING FROM NEAR KHYS AT OVC030 TO KGCK AT OVC018. THIS BAND
OF LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 18Z TODAY, LEAVING VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AHEAD
AND BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
EVENING, AND THE TAFS WILL INCLUDE A VCTS GROUP FROM ABOUT 22Z TO
01Z. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED AROUND 030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  86  61  89 /  50  10  10   0
GCK  62  86  59  90 /  40  10  10   0
EHA  61  88  61  90 /  30  10  10   0
LBL  64  87  61  90 /  40  10  10   0
HYS  65  85  61  88 /  50  20  10   0
P28  67  87  66  89 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE



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