Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CONSIDERING AN EXTREMELY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
SLOWLY EAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR, A SLIGHTLY INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT AND FORCING PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS SLOW TO EXIT EASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. AS IT DOES SO, A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING
TO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 60S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FOR SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 90S(F) SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED CONSISTS OF A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN REGION WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS REGION THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LITTLE IF ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, OTHER THAN
ISOLATED CHANCES THAT MIGHT OCCUR ALONG ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLED
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN ADVANCE. THE
CONSENSUS OF RAW MODELS SEEMED TO PERFORMED BEST WITH RESPECT TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AGAIN IN THE DAYS 3
AND 4 TIMEFRAME.

BY MIDWEEK, THE MODELS BEGIN TO ADJUST THE UPPER WESTERLY
PATTERN...ALLOWING MORE JET ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INITIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ALLOW A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD  PROVIDE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
CONVECTION. THE JET DYNAMICS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR AS WELL FOR
ANY HIGH TERRAIN DAYTIME HEATING SURFACE BASED STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE LIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WELL MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS  THE LOWER 90S/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME CU, BUT
NOTHING MORE TO CAUSE A REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LESS THAN VFR.
A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW, HOWEVER,
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH THIS IS WEAK AT BEST AND WINDS MAY BE MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THAN OTHERWISE SUGGESTED BY SOME MODEL OUTPUT. THE
VRB06KT THAT THE PREVIOUS TAF HAD IN STILL LOOKS GOOD. REGARDLESS,
MAGNITUDES WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  95  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  63  95  66  92 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  65  95  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  65  95  69  93 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  63  95  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
P28  65  97  70  94 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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