Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 120859
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014
...Updated for short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Upper level troughing will develop over the northern plains and
upper Midwest through Sunday morning. A low level baroclinic zone
persists across southern Nebraska this morning as MCS activity
continues to track nightly across Nebraska. This baroclinic zone will
get shoved a little southward today toward the Interstate 70
corridor as the upper trough amplifies over the upper Midwest.
Surface based CAPE will be negligible south of the front since low
level moisture continues to mix out on the high plains given the
veered 850mb winds at night, with richer moisture confined to eastern
Kansas. However, on the cool side of the front, dewpoints will be
higher so that surface based CAPE will approach 1500 j/kg from
Wakeeney northward by late afternoon. Any thunderstorms that
develop will tend to propagate along the frontal boundary since
the mid level winds will be nearly parallel to the front. This
front will very slowly sag southward tonight, with thunderstorm
chances persisting, mainly north of Garden City and Jetmore to the
Hays and Wakeeney areas. Given the very weak to negligible low and
high level shear, pulse type storms can be expected with localized
heavy rain and gusty winds.
Since the NAM 2m temperatures continue to be too warm, I opted to
undercut these values slightly for today, with mainly mid to upper 90s.
Temperatures tonight will be held up by cloud cover, and should
only fall into the high 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
For Sunday into Monday, a large upper low and trough moves into the
Great Lakes and Central Plains. This system will push a cold front
across Kansas and into Oklahoma on Sunday. There will be only a
slight chance for thunderstorms with the front across western Kansas
into Sunday night. Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible
behind the front on Monday with some upslope flow and good moisture.
Highs on Sunday will be not as warm and in the upper 80s to around
90, with mid 90s in the Medicine Lodge area. Highs on Monday will
continue in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday night, and low to mid 60s on
Monday night. Severe weather chances look low at this time with weak
wind shear and minor instability.
Temperatures get much cooler for Tuesday into late next week, as the
aforementioned upper low continues to build deeply southward into
the Great Lakes, adjacent Plains, and eastern U.S. with several
shortwaves rounding the base of the upper low. A large area of
cooler surface high pressure will push into the Central and Southern
Plains with highs only in the 70s, and lows in the 50s to around 60.
If clouds and showers stick around, highs may not get out of the 60s
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday looks like the best
chances for measurable rainfall as a shortwave trough rounds the
base of the main upper low across the Central Plains. Rainfall
chances begin to decrease on Thursday into Friday. Highs warm also
by Friday possibly back into the 80 as an upper trough moves east
and upper level ridging build back into the Central Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in south winds through the period, with the strongest winds
around 15 kts during afternoon heating. A cold front will
approach the TAF sites near the end of the period. VFR conditions
can be expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 70 89 68 / 0 10 20 30
GCK 96 69 88 67 / 10 10 20 30
EHA 95 69 91 67 / 0 10 40 40
LBL 95 70 92 68 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 96 68 88 68 / 20 40 20 30
P28 95 71 94 71 / 0 10 30 30