Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
204
FXUS63 KDDC 180502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TONIGHT:

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT AND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY,
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.

TOMORROW:

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
FAIRLY COOL 850-HPA TEMPERATURES, HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER
SOLUTION WITH MID 60S FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE EAST 10
TO 15 MPH BY EVENING. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS ESPECIALLY AS BETTER
GULF MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE INCREASING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES BY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW AND WILL CARRY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION. RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN
SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE OF
A CLOSED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN OPEN AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER UPPER WAVE WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND DRYLINE FARTHER
SOUTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. TRENDS IN RECENT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES
WHERE EARLY MORNING RAINFALL AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE DAY
PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION COULD BE REALIZED AGAIN AS THE
GFS SHOWS PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW
LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KGCK, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KDDC, BRIEFLY
TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING IN WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT MONDAY EVENING WHILE BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  58  47  62 /  30  80  80  10
GCK  47  57  45  62 /  50  70  70  10
EHA  49  57  47  62 /  70  80  50   0
LBL  51  59  49  63 /  60  80  60   0
HYS  45  57  45  57 /  10  80  80  20
P28  51  63  52  67 /  10  80  80  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.