Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252313
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Main concern is for the overnight hours in terms of precipitation chances.
A front is well south of the forecast area. Convection will be tied
to this boundary with activity propagating northward into Kansas. The
4 km NAM solution is the farthest to the north with the precipitation
shield. The ARW and NMMB are to the south and look closer to observations.
As a result, have trended pops to the southeast. Have the highest values
across Barber county for the overnight hours as isentropic-induced
activity moves across said county. Despite SPC, do not think severe
weather is very likely. The LHP is around 4, however, upscale growth,
a lack of discrete storms, and a high PWAT environment should cut down
on hail growth. There could be some marginally severe winds, but by
the time it passes through, this activity should mainly pose a heavy
rain threat. Up to a inch could be possible in the southeast zones,
although isolated higher amounts are possible, should the 4 km NAM
solution verify. Otherwise, the next chance at precipitation will be
tomorrow afternoon and evening across the western and northwestern zones
in association with the tail end of a trof to the north. Highs will
moderate a bit, but still think there will be a gradient of 70s north
to 80s south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Will be dealing with the highest pops across the northern zones tomorrow
evening. This activity may be marginally severe, but instability will
be on the lower end to moderate side. Some shear though is indicated
with faster winds passing through at the base of the trof. Otherwise,
for the rest of the period, there will be a chance of storms through
the weekend as weak flow aloft and a low level baroclinic boundary prevails.
Drier weather may prevail by the middle portion of next week as mid
level ridging retrogrades. Highs will be fairly normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible once again overnight, mainly across
southern portions of southwest Kansas. If a storm passes over a
TAF site, expect MVFR to IFR conditions. Winds will generally be
from the northeast at less than 10 knots overnight shifting to the
southeast by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  64  88 /  50  30  40  30
GCK  59  79  60  88 /  20  50  50  30
EHA  60  84  61  87 /  30  50  40  30
LBL  61  83  62  89 /  50  40  40  30
HYS  60  76  63  84 /  20  50  50  30
P28  65  82  67  90 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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