Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232242
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Initially for the remainder of this afternoon a few thunderstorms
will remain possible in association with a passing upper wave and
modest 70-kt upper jet streak nosing into the area. While the main
cold front is well south of KS across north TX, enough elevated
instability via MUCAPE values near 500 J/kg between 600-700 hPa
exists to sustain convection. Other than some relatively
infrequent in cloud lightning, these storms will pose limited
threat. Otherwise, subsidence behind this wave will bring surface
high pressure over the Central High Plains tonight into early
Saturday with cloud cover gradually clearing and winds turning
light. This will result in a window opening night with cooler
temperatures via values in the lower to mid 50s expected.
Although the lee trough will begin to deepen enough by Saturday
afternoon to flip winds to the southeast, cool and dry air will
remain in place. Despite strong solar insolation, 700 hPa temps
of only +3 to +5 C will keeps afternoon highs on Saturday in the
70s to near 80.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Saturday night into Sunday will see the upper pattern remain
unchanged with a large upper trough over the eastern half of the
country while a ridge sits over the west. This will leave the
Central Plains under a northwest flow regime as the lee trough
gradually deepens enough to kick high pressure eastward. Expect
this will permit some weak moisture return with a few scattered
thunderstorms possible mainly west of highway 283 through Saturday
night and again Sunday evening/overnight. Nonetheless, a mild
temperature regime will persist with afternoon highs in the 70s to
near 80 while lows in the 50s prevail.

Monday then becomes a transition day between the cooler regime
this weekend and a return to more summer-like conditions
Tuesday/Wednesday. Specifically, the upper flow pattern will
gradually turn more zonal over the central CONUS as a wave begins
digging into the Pacific Coast. A few storms may form Monday
evening along a belt of returning moisture ahead of the lee trough
but overall coverage looks small. Attention then shifts to
Tuesday and Wednesday as zonal flow aloft will kick the lee trough
out of the far western High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will likely bring the next round of strong to severe storms along
with temperatures spiking back into the 90s. Thursday into early
Friday will then see a front sink into Kansas in response to a
broad but potent wave digging into the Northern Plains to
Intermountain West. This should continue a risk for severe
thunderstorms both days although with cooler temperatures possible
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this evening into the overnight period
with decreasing mid level cloud cover. Winds will generally be
from the northeast becoming light and variable after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  57  79 /  10   0  20  20
GCK  53  78  56  78 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  55  77  57  76 /  10  10  50  40
LBL  56  79  59  77 /  10  10  30  30
HYS  53  78  55  78 /   0   0  20  20
P28  57  82  60  83 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...AJohnson
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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