Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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153
FXUS63 KDDC 260533
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Drier conditions are likely across the Western High Plains today as
any lingering rain across central Kansas will dissipate by mid day
as short range models indicate an upper level shortwave shifting
further east across the Central Plains into the Mississippi River
Valley. Well below normal temperatures can be expected today as
colder air surges southward into western Kansas in wake of the
cold frontal passage yesterday, dropping H85 temperatures to
around 5C across central Kansas to a little above 10C along the
Colorado border. Considering cloud cover may linger through much
of the morning, look for highs only up into the 50s(F) across
central Kansas to possibly the lower 60s(F) in extreme southwest
Kansas where clouds are likely to scatter out earlier in the day.
Expect lows down into the 30s(F) in central Kansas tonight with
the lower 40s(F) possible in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Another shortwave trough will move out over the central High Plains
on Thursday. A warm front could lift back into western Kansas on
Thursday. Latest model guidance does not look too impressive with
low level moisture return and instability does not look all that
great. The GFS progs up to 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE in a narrow
corridor of southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon so there could be
a brief window of opportunity for a marginally severe storm but
confidence in this is low.

Toward the weekend, the medium range models continue to show
another trough digging and closing off into an upper low into the
Rockies and closing off somewhere in the vicinity of the Four
Corners region by Saturday morning. Periods of rain are expected
to develop across the central High Plains Friday night and could
continue through Sunday before exiting the High Plains as the
upper low moves northeast of the region. It appears that this
system will have sufficient cold air for rain to mix with or
change over to snow over west central and parts of southwest
Kansas Saturday into Saturday night. At this time it is hard to
pinpoint any potential snowfall accumulation given uncertainties
in model solutions, warm ground, etc, but would not be surprised
to see some locations seeing some brief light accumulations
by Saturday night.

Quiet and mild weather will return to the area by early next week as
the upper low moves east and warmer air begins to filter back in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Predominately MVFR cigs will continue in the vicinity of all TAF
sites overnight as low level stratus prevails across southwest and
central Kansas. Periods of IFR cigs are possible. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will return west to east late this morning into early
afternoon as the stratus layer slowly lifts/scatters through the
day. Northerly winds 15 to 30kt will persist across western Kansas
overnight as a broad surface high remains settled across the high
plains of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Northerly winds
will then subside somewhat through late this afternoon as the
surface high edges eastward across the Northern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  39  64 /  50  10   0  30
GCK  36  60  39  65 /  50  10   0  40
EHA  38  62  42  69 /  80  10   0  20
LBL  39  61  41  70 /  70  10   0  30
HYS  37  57  36  57 /  30  10   0  50
P28  42  58  38  64 /  60  20   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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