


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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582 FXUS63 KDDC 070458 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1158 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - One or more strong to severe, fairly large thunderstorm clusters likely to move southeast across western Kansas through the night tonight. - Main severe risk will be damaging straight line winds to 70 mph, perhaps isolated higher than that, particularly west of Highway 283 and north of Highway 50. - Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday and Monday Night and even into Tuesday as a fairly strong upper level jet remains across the High Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Another night of thunderstorms in the forecast tonight, with the main challenges being severity/magnitude of the expected mesoscale convective system(s), timing, and placement of the thunderstorm clusters tonight. First of all, none of the convection allowing models (CAMs) captured the ongoing small MCS moving southeast across southwest Nebraska as of 20Z. This MCS was tapping into higher SBCAPE with the southernmost storm SVR-warned about to move almost straight south across the Kansas line. Should this initial cluster make it down to the I-70 corridor, large hail to 1.5"+ in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph would be the main concern some time after 23Z (6 PM CDT). Otherwise, the "main show" would be coming out of northeast/east central Colorado later tonight at the nose of a 60kt 250mb jet streak. Good low level upslope winds across western Kansas were advecting upper 60s/around 70F dewpoints closer to the Colorado line. Initial storms were developing along the Palmer Divide, which will track east or east-southeast along I-70 into northwestern Kansas, perhaps merging with the ongoing southwest Nebraska MCS. A severe wind risk (60-70mph peak gusts) will exist as the MCS (or a couple MCSs) mature(s) later this evening as it moves into west central and southwest Kansas. The morning 12Z HREF probabilistic and ensemble mean convective fields show a good signal of one or more MCSs rolling southeast through the night. The latest 18Z deterministic NAM12 model is even more aggressive than the 12Z run in its convective QPF signal all through the night. We have increased POPs to 60+ across more of southwest Kansas, and may need to bump them up even more. There should be a decrease in the convective activity and/or MCS(s) moving east of our southwest Kansas region in the 09-15Z time frame early tomorrow morning. This will no doubt leave an outflow boundary somewhere across our southwest KS region tomorrow, but this will slowly diminish by mid to late afternoon, so it is unclear how much of a role, if any, remaining outflow boundaries play with respect to convective initiation. 700mb temperatures will be slightly warmer, so there may be a bit stronger capping inversion in place, but as temperatures warm to around 90 degrees, it would not take much low level convergence to initiate storms (outside of the more obvious initiation across the higher terrain of Colorado). A Slight Risk from SPC continues for the Day 2 Outlook tomorrow. After Monday, the upper level ridge will continue to expand its influence across the Colorado Rockies toward far western Kansas with even warmer 700mb temperatures, however once again even late Tuesday/Tuesday evening, good dewpoints in place (upper 60s/lower 70s) with southeasterly surface winds in place will probably be enough for another round of storms across the Central High Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 An ongoing MCS in northwest Kansas will move through southwest Kansas between 05-09Z this morning with strong winds and heavy rain the main threats. The line should reach near GCK around 07Z and DDC near 08Z. Sustained winds will increase to 20-30 kts and gusts could reach 40+ kts. Winds will also quickly shift from the south to the north with the passing of the storms. In general we should have VFR flight category however with the storms producing heavy rainfall we could see lower SM in DDC and GCK that could drop the flight category to MVFR. In the afternoon hours we could see a few pop up storms around DDC and LBL between 21-02Z however the probability of storms is around 20%. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Umscheid AVIATION...Tatro