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000
FXUS63 KDDC 120810
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A strong upper level system will pass across western Kansas this
evening. Just ahead of this feature, a mid level baroclinic zone
will develop, and there will be just enough mid level moisture
and lift to help generate some light precipitation, mainly along
interstate 70. Rain can be expected at the onset as a nearly dry
adiabatic layer will extend 2000 ft below the freezing level.
However, continued cold advection and wet bulbing will cool the
boundary layer enough for snow to reach the ground near or after 00z.
Some accumulation of snow is possible, but due to the brevity of the
event, amounts should remain less than an inch at Hays and Wakeeney.
Due to the high winds, measuring this snow will be difficult at
best. A high wind warning is still in effect for much of western
Kansas, with a wind advisory further east.

Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees by
Wednesday morning. In the wake of the upper level system, Wednesday
will still be breezy, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Medium range models indicate a closed off upper level low opening up
as it begins to shift eastward across the Desert Southwest Thursday
and into the South Plains Friday bringing marginal precip chances to
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and possibly extreme southern
portions of southwest and south central Kansas based on the
projected track of the shortwave. However, a lack of lower/mid
level moisture will limit what little precip may occur. A secondary
upper level shortwave is expected to drop southeast out of the
Pacific Northwest into the Colorado Rockies Saturday setting up
another shot for precip to portions of western Kansas Saturday
evening into Sunday.

Temperatures will rebound quickly Thursday as arctic high pressure
moves further south across Texas while lee side troughing redevelops
across eastern Colorado. This will help turn an already downsloping
northwest flow back to the southwest throughout the day drawing much
warmer H85 temperatures into the area with values around 10C across
central Kansas to the mid Teens(C) in far southwest Kansas. Highs
will easily reach the 60s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 70F
possible in some locations. A weak cold front is then projected to
push through western Kansas early Friday curbing the warming trend
with highs only up into the 50s(F) to near 60F. Slightly warmer
temperatures return Saturday as lee side troughing redevelops
across eastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Winds will continue to decrease tonight as the storm system pulls
away from Kansas. By 08-10Z or so, we should see north-northwest
winds averaging 12 to 14 knots. By late morning, the winds will
pick up a little bit to 16 to 19 knots, gusting to mid 20s knots
as mixing increases due to insolation. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period with downslope flow resuming.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  26  68  37 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  52  24  68  37 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  50  28  67  37 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  52  25  68  38 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  24  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  28  69  38 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid