Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Cirrus continues to thicken from north to south this afternoon,
making insolation more diffuse across the area. The current light
southwest surface winds will persist though tonight, and Friday as
an upper level shortwave ridge shifts eastward across the area.
Other than the amount of high level cirrus over the area, little
change in the going forecast is expected. The warming trend will
continue into Friday afternoon, with continued weak southwesterly
downslope dry-adiabatic warming.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The NAM maintains a dry boundary layer with no low level clouds,
through much of the period, until the next synoptic storm develops
over the region on Sunday. Saturday appears similar with highs in
the 50s across central Kansas to the low 70s in the extreme
southwest counties. As for the impending well advertised system
arriving Sunday, the models have thrown no surprises in recent runs,
still maintaining southwest Kansas in the warm sector for much of
the day with a changeover to snow by late day with the potential for
accumulations of an inch or two in the north. All of the models,
including the late frames of the NAM have placed a heavy snow band
across northwest Kansas, extending north-northeast across Nebraska.
Have seen enough consistency to increase precipitation probabilities
with going into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR will continue with variable amounts of cirrus. Light
SW winds will again prevail, becoming modestly gusty during the
peak heating afternoon hours. Winds will diminish and back more
southerly around 00z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  66  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  68  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  70  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  23  68  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  61  30  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner


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