Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 200533 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains will
move northeastward into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
Southwesterly upper level flow will follow with increasing high
level moisture and some cirrus cloudiness into tonight. South winds
will increase again this afternoon at 15 to 30 mph as low pressure
deepens in the lee of the Rockies. Highs may be augmented slightly
by some increasing cirrus cloudiness with daytime highs in the mid
to upper 90s. Should also be a dry forecast with only a slight
chance of some showers or thunderstorms skirting far west Kansas and
near and just north of the I-70 corridor late this afternoon and
tonight. After sunset south winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph with
another mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014
Somewhat problematic pops for Wednesday evening as confidence in seeing
thunderstorm development is low and activity should remain isolated.
NAM has a few storms developing Wednesday evening across northwest Kansas,
which may drift close to my northwestern zones. Have slight pops here,
but generally shifted the line farther west. Otherwise, the rest of
the area will remain precipitation-free with lows in the 70s. Isolated
convection will be possible again across western Kansas Thursday evening,
near the sfc trough, but a rather dry atmosphere and weak forcing will
limit overall convective potential. Kept pops in the slight range.
Otherwise, highs in the upper 90s to near 100F still looks prudent at
Friday and beyond:
The rest of the forecast is fairly ho-hum with hot weather and slight
chances for thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. An upper
level ridge will remain southeast of the forecast area, while a trough
moves across the northern Rockies through next weekend. Again, there
may be isolated storms and temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal. Change is still possible by Sunday into Monday, when a fairly
strong cold front moves across the Central Plains. With this front stalling
around the region, there may be continued thunderstorm chances and maximums
cooling down. The more seasonal conditions look to continue through
the rest of the forecast period.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014
A trough of low pressure will again deepen in the lee of the
Rockies today with light south winds becoming south 15-25kt in the
afternoon. Only some high level cirrus clouds are expected with
VFR conditions prevailing. There may be an outside chance for a
thunderstorm near KHYS tonight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 99 73 99 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 70 99 70 98 / 10 20 20 10
EHA 69 96 71 97 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 70 99 73 98 / 10 20 20 10
HYS 72 98 72 96 / 10 20 20 20
P28 72 98 75 99 / 10 10 10 10