Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 160846
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014
...Updated Short Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
A shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale zonal northwesterly
flow aloft was approaching the Northern Plains early this morning.
The disturbance will move rapidly east across the plains today,
leading to a weak frontal passage across western Kansas during the
mid to late morning hours. The airmass behind the initial frontal
surge will not be all that cold, so influence on temperatures today
will be negligible. Temperatures will still reach the lower to mid
60s across much of west central Kansas. Areas across south central
Kansas will see highs in the lower 70s given the later frontal
passage during the afternoon hours (especially Barber County). With
the airmass as dry as it is ahead of the front, no precipitation is
expected during the daytime and early evening hours.
A secondary disturbance in the northwest flow pattern will approach
Colorado this evening. The more southern track will favor
development of 850mb-surface low across West Texas. 700mb
development will occur by the mid evening hours across far southeast
Colorado and adjacent far southwest KS/western Oklahoma Panhandle.
This is the favored area for precipitation initially...with light
precipitation spreading east through the overnight hours. Will
carry Likely POPs (60-70 percent) across mainly the western half of
the forecast area ending 12z Thursday. All the models suggest the
lower tropospheric thermodynamic profile will be warm enough to keep
all the precipitation as rain...even along the Colorado border...so
we removed the mention of snow during the overnight hours.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central
High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds
with a chance of precipitation. Models are a lot warmer than what
they were last night and have decided to go with all rain as the
type of precipitation. There could be a few snow flakes mixed in
across west central Kansas but no measurable accumulation is
expected at this time. Winds will generally be from the northeast
throughout the day with highs in the lower 50s.
Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge
building above the Plains. Winds will shift back to more of a
southerly direction during this time frame. However, this will be
short lived as an upper level shortwave moves through the Southwest
United States and Four Corners Region Friday then into the Central
Rockies and Central Plains on Saturday. Clouds will be on the
increase Friday night as this system approaches with a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Additional isolated
thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday with decreasing
cloudiness in the afternoon as the system exits the area. As for
temperatures, highs look to reach into the 70s Friday through Sunday
with lows Friday morning in the lower to mid 30s. Lows Saturday
morning will generally be in the upper 40s with lows Sunday morning
ranging from the upper 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s
across south central Kansas.
The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level
ridging building across the Rockies and southerly winds at the
surface. Skies should be partly cloudy. Highs Monday and Tuesday
look to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014
South winds will remain fairly strong at 18 to 22 knots through
the night until about 10-12Z as the gradient starts to relax with
the approaching front. There will be a roughly 3 hour period of
southwest to west winds at 8 to 12 knots, but with the frontal
passage mid to late morning, winds will become northerly with
speeds of 12 to 15 knots. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period given the absence of low level moisture
advection from the south.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 40 52 34 / 0 60 70 10
GCK 64 39 53 34 / 0 80 50 10
EHA 66 40 52 34 / 0 70 50 10
LBL 69 41 53 33 / 0 50 60 10
HYS 66 36 52 33 / 0 50 50 10
P28 73 44 53 35 / 0 50 70 10