Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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409
FXUS63 KDDC 212346
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
546 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

850mb to 700mb frontogenesis and i290 to I300 isentropic lift
improves early tonight across southwest Kansas as an upper level
trough/low exits the southern Rockies and moves into the Texas
Panhandle. At this time the models place the better moisture and
forcing overnight near the Oklahoma border so the previous shift
had the right idea with keeping the best chance for precipitation
south of the Arkansas river. This system tonight will be
progressive so although the atmosphere northwest of the 700mb to
500mb low does get cold enough for snow after midnight before the
precipitation ends, it appears little, if any, in the way of snow
accumulation tonight will be observed.

As this upper low moves out into the Southern and Central Plains
overnight an area of low pressure will deepen so winds across
western Kansas are expected to be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Based
on these winds and in the mixing of boundary layer the lows
tonight will not be a cold as the past few nights.

A northwesterly flow will improve on Sunday across the West
Central High Plains as an upper level ridge axis begins to build
into the Rockies. Net 24hour 850mb temperature changes indicates
some minor cooling will occur but based on more afternoon sun and
a deeper mixing depth advertised by the GFS and NAM will favor
highs similar to those today....possibly even a few degrees warmer
in a few locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Unseasonably warm conditions can be expected on Monday as an
upper level ridge axis moves out into the Plains and down slope
flow improves across western Kansas. In addition to the warming
trend early in the week a surface trough of low pressure will
begin to develop along the lee of the Rockies as the upper ridge
axis move out into the plains and the next upper level trough
quickly approaches the Central Rockies.

For Tuesday...the GFS and ECMWF earlier today differed slightly
on the track and timing of the next upper level system but both
are in good agreement with gusty southwest winds at 25 to near 35
mph developing on Tuesday as the surface low deepens and a 40 to
50 knot winds located in the 900mb to 850mb level mixes down to
the surface. In addition to these gusty winds given the expected
dew points late in the day the afternoon relative humidity values
are expected to fall back into the 20 to 30 percent range which
will enhance the fire danger levels for portions of western
Kansas.

Also agree with the previous shift in that given the potential
for winds of 25 to near 35 mph late Tuesday may cause some light
damage of the remaining weakened trees and/or utility poles/line
from the recent ice storm.

As the upper level trough crosses the Western High Plains on
Tuesday a surface cold front will cross southwest Kansas which
will shift the gusty southwest winds to the northwest during the
afternoon. These gusty winds are expected to continue through the
early evening period before beginning to taper off to around 15
knots after midnight. Precipitation with this next system appears
small but am still unable to rule out some light rain late day or
early Tuesday evening in northern Kansas.

Given the 900mb to 850mb temperatures behind this cold front mid
week it appears that Wednesday may be the coolest day of the work
week. Highs Wednesday afternoon will range from the upper 30s in
north central Kansas to the lower 40s near the Oklahoma border.
Late week temperatures will gradually warm from around 40 on
Wednesday to the middle 40s by Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A storm system currently moving east over the OK/TX Panhandles
will bring VFR to occasional MVFR cigs along with VCSH to the
Garden City and Dodge City terminals through the early part of
this TAF period. This weather system will have little if any
impact on the Hays terminal. As the system continues east
overnight, look for conditions to improve with VFR expected after
06z. Northerly winds will become gusty to near 25 knots at times
late tonight but should diminish after sunrise on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  52  28  56 /  40   0   0   0
GCK  30  50  26  58 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  29  51  29  63 /  80   0   0   0
LBL  31  53  28  63 /  90  10   0   0
HYS  32  50  26  54 /  10   0   0   0
P28  38  56  28  57 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Gerard



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