Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241803
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...Updated afternoon forecast...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Will cancel the high wind warning for the far southwest Kansas
counties for the rest of the day. Warning criteria winds have
remained farther west across eastern Colorado into the western
Texas Panhandle. Latest model trends show that the strongest
winds will gradually subside in those areas and winds across
southwest Kansas will remain in the 25-35 mph range with
occasional gusts to 45 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main items of interest for today is the deformation rain band that
is forecast to wrap around the synoptic low and the high wind potential.
The strongest deformation is forecast across eastern Colorado and into
northern Kansas. Therefore, have the highest pops in our north across
the forecast district. Both global and mesoscale guidance have come
into decent agreement with this configuration. The synoptic low is
taking its time before it finally ejects across the Plains tonight.
This should delay the onset on the strongest winds on the backside
of the low. Mixing and an isallobaric response does suggest the need
for a high wind warning. Have cancelled the watch to the east as the
magnitudes look weaker. Have added an end warning buffer since the
low is moving more slowly across the greater region. Rain amounts will
be on the light side as most of the stronger lift and associated instability
with the 500-hPa cold pool is not in our area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The long term models continue to show varying solutions and QPF amounts
in the extended period. The 12Z EC showed this with several inches
of QPF throughout the model domain. The good news in this perpetual
drought is that the 00Z EC run continues in progging heavy precipitation
across SW Kansas. The model does continue to vary with the position
of this heavier axis as the synoptic lows/trofs keep changing with
each run. The bottom line is we might see several bouts of showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast district. Moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico shouldn`t be too much of a problem because it looks like
the Gulf will be fairly wide open. Temperatures in the extended look
fairly seasonal and not too warm, which is just what we could use
(a break - from the recent drought and wildfire events).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Strong surface low pressure system currently located southeast of
KGUY will move southeast through the rest of the day. An attendant
cold front will move east through the terminals this afternoon
with gusty north winds developing behind the front. Showers could
develop this afternoon under the upper level low pressure system
over the area. By late afternoon/early evening we should see MVFR
cigs developing as stratus develops over the area. Cigs should
improve later tonight and Saturday morning as the storm system
moves east of the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  37  65  40 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  66  33  66  40 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  58  33  67  40 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  63  35  67  41 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  70  38  61  39 /  30  20  10   0
P28  77  41  65  41 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard



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