Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH TIME, SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BE ACHIEVED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH A
BETTER GRADIENT AND LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH
RESPECT TO TODAY`S HIGHS, SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS MOS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 80S IN EXTREME SW KS. WE
WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. 15
DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE IS NOT UNREASONABLE BETWEEN ELKHART AND AND
HAYS WITH THIS PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN PRESUMED RADIATION FOG, THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT IN A SIMILAR SOLUTION FRONT THE NMM AND ARW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN HE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE
DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  47  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  48  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  47  73  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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