Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122306
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Short range models indicate the upper level shortwave in the
Northern Plains pushing eastward into the Great Lakes Region
tonight. As the shortwave moves across the region, an attendant
frontal boundary will shift slowly southward out of Nebraska into
northwest and north central Kansas this evening. Ample low level
moisture will be present with surface dewpoints well into the lower
to mid 60s(F) across central and southwest Kansas. Even with a weak
flow aloft in place across the high plains of western Kansas, enough
instability and forcing will exist to support thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the boundary across west central,
central, and portions of southwest Kansas tonight. Although the
flow aloft will remain fairly weak as mentioned above, CAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/Kg and steep lapse rates suggest the
possibility for stronger storms with gusty winds the primary
threat. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

Little change is expected to the air mass in place across the high
plains of western Kansas tonight. As a result, look for lows back
down into the 60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F)
in south central Kansas. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely
Sunday as a weak frontal boundary pushes southward into Oklahoma.
Expect highs only up into the 80s(F) across central Kansas with
lower to mid 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

By Sunday evening, the strong cold front will be down in Northern
Oklahoma, but still pretty close to the Kansas southern border.
Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly down along the Kansas and
Oklahoma border, with 30 to 40 percent chances. The flow aloft will
be northwest, with a high pressure center over Nevada and a strong
upper low pressure area over Western Ontario.  Minor short waves
will travel southeast in the NW flow, and will help trigger storms
near the cold front.  The surface high pressure, cold in nature,
will settle into the southern Mississippi Valley, with an east to
southeast upslope flow forming near the surface over Western
Kansas.

One after another upper short wave, some larger than others, will
flow through Western Kansas and bring rain chances to our CWA, from
Monday into Wednesday night. The rain Monday and Monday night will
mainly be from upslope precipitation, and some thunderstorm
activity is still possible. Going into Tuesday, a real cool down
will take affect, with Maximum Temperatures Tuesday falling into
the mid to upper 70s, and Wednesday only into the lower to mid 70s
for high temperatures. Thursday still looks cool with an upslope
affect, and highs should be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
The precipitation will end sometime on Thursday, with a mid to
upper level downslope pattern forming.  Friday`s maximum temperatures
will rise to the middle to upper 80s, on their way to lower 90s by
Saturday.

By Saturday, there will be a lee side trough enter far western
Kansas, and by afternoon there could be some thunderstorms, with 20
to 30 percent chances in our west and southwest zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Moisture will increase in the 800mb to 600mb level tonight as an
upper level disturbance moves across the western Kansas. VFR
conditions can be expected given that the main moisture will be
at or above the 800mb level. In addition to the increasing clouds
there will also be a chance for some scattered thunderstorms.
Based on the latest RAP and HRRR along with most recent radar
trend will favor thunderstorms between 00z and 04z at Hays and
Garden City, and in the Dodge area between 04z and 09z. Given the
scattered nature of these storms tonight will go with VCTS at all
taf sites. A cold front will cross western Kansas overnight which
will shift a south/southwest wind to the north/northeast. Will
base timing of the frontal passage with the NAM, RAP and HRRR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  89  68  88 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  68  88  67  87 /  40  20  30  30
EHA  68  91  67  87 /  30  40  40  50
LBL  69  92  68  88 /  30  30  30  40
HYS  68  88  68  88 /  40  20  30  40
P28  72  94  71  90 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert





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