Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WILL COME
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AS SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENOUGH AS WELL. DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE/GRIDDED MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER)...WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

ON TUESDAY NIGHT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
SLIDE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH FURTHER THAN WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.
MODELS WERE ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES A SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF INDICATED MOISTURE,
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVING LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRECEDING THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE IMPROVING
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RETAIN A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAT WHAT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. GIVEN THIS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEAR TO THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, UPSLOPE FLOW, AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDER A WARM DRY LAYER IN THE 800 TO
650MB LEVEL.

AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER EXACT TRACK REMAINS UNCLEAR.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION AND AS A RESULT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT AND EVEN
CALM WINDS FOR A WHILE TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  27  44  28 /   0  10  20  30
GCK  40  26  45  27 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  43  31  50  28 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  29  49  29 /   0  10  20  30
HYS  38  19  39  25 /   0   0  10  20
P28  44  27  43  30 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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