Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010510
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AT 00Z SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTO SASKATCHEWAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WITH 40 TO 50 METER 12HOUR 500MB HEIGHT
FALL LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. A +90
KNOT 250MB JET EXTENDED FROM THE BASED OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A WEDGE OF WARM AIR WAS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. A
SURFACE TO 850MB HIGH STRETCHED FROM WEST OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN
IOWA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 27 TO 32F
RANGE IN THE AREA COVERED BY A FREEZE WARNING, THE DURATION BELOW
FREEZING MAY BE AS MUCH AS 10 HOURS IN PLACES, PARTICULARLY FROM
HAYS TO STAFFORD TO PRATT. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
STATE LINE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST, 50S CAN BE EXPECTED AS COOL AIR
RECIRCULATES AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST AND SFC WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS DRIER THAN COMPARED TO ITS 00Z COUNTERPART, AND MOST
OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT COULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z NAM SHOWS PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
STUCK WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY AND
ALSO TO BLEND IN WITH THE DAYS 4-7 SOLUTION. THE BEST PLACE FOR THE
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TO THE WEST,
LOCATIONS MAY BE SHORT CHANGED ON PRECIP IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES AND THERE
IS TOO MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOMENTUM ALONG WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

BEYOND MONDAY, WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER
AIR MASS TRAVERSES ACROSS KANSAS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60. AND FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WILL SEE CONTINUED MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION. THE SUPERBLEND
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN A WEEK FROM NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE LOCATION IS FORECAST
FAIRLY FAR SOUTH, SO THE LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN
TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WESTERN KANSAS AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY AT OR ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  70  52  67 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  45  75  50  66 /   0  10  20  30
EHA  47  76  49  66 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  42  73  50  68 /   0  10  30  40
HYS  42  71  52  66 /   0  10  30  40
P28  43  67  53  68 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT



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