Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 231844
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
144 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.
A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
A surface high will be moving through the area into Texas on
Thursday morning, resulting in light surface winds at least by the
afternoon after wind slacken through the morning. Aside form any
cirrus that might be associated with the upper jet skies should be
sunny given the low relative humidity in the lower and middle
troposphere. A better surface pressure gradient will be in place by
Friday resulting in breezy southerly winds.
Another dynamic synoptic scale storm system will affect the region
for the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement of
the evolution of another well pronounced dryline for Saturday,
with convection likely followed by a rapidly deepening low
pressure over western Kansas for Sunday. The low pressure is
modeled to track northeastward into the Missouri valley. The
expected track implies our area could see both a warm
sector/convective threat Saturday and deformation zone
precipitation as well into Saturday evening or early Sunday. While
precipitation timing modes/amount may be the most uncertain
characteristics, the warm boundary layer ensures pcpn will be rain
while high confidence also exists in windy conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Potential exists for high winds on the backside of
the exiting low, centered around Monday morning most likely.
Gridded model output statistics indicates sustained winds around
40 knots. Winds were adjusted away from the initial ALLblend
forecast, to a much closer consensus of MOS for Saturday through
Monday. Models suggest deep meridional flow across western Kansas
and a few windy days into the early part of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 72 45 82 / 60 0 0 0
GCK 44 73 44 82 / 50 10 0 0
EHA 44 71 45 83 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 45 74 45 84 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 46 73 43 79 / 80 10 0 0
P28 53 72 46 83 / 60 10 0 0
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-