Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271748
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Short term concern is convection potential for today. The WRF-ARW
and NMMB models shows late afternoon and evening convection
developing across the western counties and then spreading east and
weakening through the evening. Bulk shear supports organized
convection, however, instability is quite weak with dewpoints only
running in the lower to mid 40s by this afternoon. Think the main
threat is winds as models hint at line segment growth. Some hail
potential is there as well. 50-60 mph winds, and 1-2" hail would
be the threats. 2" hail would be pushing it. Tornado potential is
extremely low... low level directional shear is impressive,
however, again, with marginal dewpoints, LCL`s will be quite high
and forecast soundings show a mixed profile below this. Anyway, locations
that gets under a storm could see a couple of tenths of rain. It will,
of course, be spotty in nature, given the nature of the storms and
marginal BL moisture. Otherwise, highs today will peak around 60 NE
to the lower 70s SW. Friday morning lows will range from the upper
30s NW to mid 40s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Attention was spent mainly to the weekend. A strong trof approaches
the region from the SW. Considerable moisture advection is associated
with this feature and QPF from both the GFS and EC are impressive.
1-2" area wide is possible by the time the storm exits the forecast
district. A growing concern is if low level temperatures will be cold
enough for snow. Models are trending colder, particularly across the
western zones. Accumulating snowfall is not out of the question and
solid advisory amounts (2-5") possible. Will have to watch out near
the CO border, where warning amounts (6+") is indicated by some of
the more aggressive models. The ground is fairly warm. Something to
watch, but would not be surprised if a winter weather advisory was
needed at some point in the near future. Regardless of how this snow
pans out, the area will see beneficial precipitation. Otherwise, will
have to watch out for frost/freeze headlines Sunday morning. Those
areas that see the most accumulating snow could see colder temperatures
than currently forecast. Something to watch as there is high uncertainty
on the snowfall amounts and the related temperatures impacts down the
forecast road.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

VFR conditions until 22Z for KHYS and until after 3Z for KGCK and
KDDC. Expect ceilings to lower due to increasing moisture and the
possibility of thunderstorms, which will continue through
midnight. The highest confidence for IFR stratus is for KHYS and
KDDC from 6-9Z. VFR conditions will come back for KGCK and KHYS
after 12Z as the stratus clouds clears out of the region.

This afternoon, winds will continue to flow from the southeast
with gust at 20-25 knots as a low builds in SE Colorado. Winds
will turn northwesterly at 5-10 knots overnight as the low moves
along the Oklahoma panhandle and out of our area.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  43  66  38 /  40  40  20  80
GCK  65  40  64  35 /  40  40  30  80
EHA  72  41  66  34 /  20  10  30  80
LBL  73  42  66  38 /  30  20  30  80
HYS  59  43  58  38 /  60  80  20  70
P28  64  47  70  44 /  20  50  10  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Reynolds



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