Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS WESTERLY
FLOW AND IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER WILL EXIST WILL
STAY CLOSE OR GO A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE NMM BOTH HINT AT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
OVERDONE GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND.

THE 12Z NAM SURFACE SNOW DEPTH EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD MORE SNOW
COVER PRESENT THAN WHAT REALLY WILL BE GIVEN THE POOR VERIFICATION
BETWEEN THE 12Z THURSDAY MODEL SNOW COVER AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN THIS ERROR AND THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE BETWEEN 00Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DRAWING MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR
FRIDAY, THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE
5C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) WITH A
FEW LOWER 60S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION
BRIEFLY BLUNTING THE WARMING TREND. HIGHS ARE LIKELY BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S(F) AND LOWER 60S(F) AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND AS THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  60  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  59  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  60  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  62  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT


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