Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
316 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

Cold front moving through the area early this morning bumping winds
briefly behind the boundary to gusts in the 20 knots range
locally. The larger observation picture and local GFS MOS
guidance suggests winds will quickly become lighter and westerly
this morning. Stratus will be mainly confined to the extreme
south central counties and based on the HRRR is likely to exit by
11 or 12 UTC. The consensus of most of the models data for this
afternoon points toward highs in the mid to upper 50s; perhaps
pushing 60 degrees along the Oklahoma line. However the model
variance is quite low lending to better confidence. Light winds
and cloudy skies are likely tonight as a secondary shortwave seen
for several runs now, rotates through the region. The GFS is the
only model producing any measurable QPF while others strongly
suggestive of a completely dry passage. The models are a few
degrees warmer than most MOS solutions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

The remainder of the week is a story of a strong warming trend,
incrementally each day, to highs likely in the upper 70s and low
80s by Thursday. With such warm temperatures by Thursday,
critical fire weather may become a concern if gusts are
sufficient in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the remainder of this TAF
period. A cold front moving through the area will create
moderately gusty northwest winds through the morning hours that
will weaken to light westerly with the loss of the stronger
gradient later in the morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  31  62  36 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  57  30  64  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  58  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  31  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
P28  58  33  64  39 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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