Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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