Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221703
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front was pushing south across western Kansas at 0830z, with
some stratus clouds developing in its wake. Low clouds will likely
be found across much of the area for a few hours this morning before
clearing out late morning or midday. The northeast winds will top
out around 20 mph most locations as well, mainly in the late morning
time frame when pressure gradient will be strongest. Deep layer
subsidence will continue to work in from the north, and this will
push any forcing for ascent along the frontal zone down into the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. As such, have removed any
remaining POPs along the OK border for today. Temperatures are
expected to top out in the lower to mid 80s...except upper 80s in
the Red Hills. Tonight, with the fresh airmass in place,
temperatures are expected to bottom out in the upper 50s.. perhaps
mid 50s up at Hays and Wakeeney.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A dry weather pattern, with surface high pressure encompassing the
Eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley, will continue through
Thursday. After that, winds will become southeasterly in the lower
troposphere, bringing low level moisture back north. A weak westerly
flow pattern across the Rockies in the mid levels will help develop
at least a weak leeside trough, and the convergence tied to this
would enhance potential for thunderstorm development late Thursday
into Thursday Night.  This fairly cool (by August standards) and
moist low level upslope pattern is expected to continue through the
weekend with the upper flow pattern becoming more west-northwesterly
aloft. This is a favorable wind direction in the middle troposphere
for MCS activity across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. There
is no sign of persistent heat building back in, with the upper level
high redeveloping well west across the Great Basin toward the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Some lingering MVFR stratus around the Liberal area will give way
to clearing skies over the next hour or two. VFR conditions are
then expected through the remainder of the day and overnight. A
few models do suggest an increase in mid level moisture late
tonight around the 850mb level across portions of southwest Kansas
near the Oklahoma border so a period of low VFR ceilings will be
possible between 09z and 15z Wednesday at Liberal. Further north
skies will be clear today and overnight. Gusty northeast winds
early this afternoon will fall back to 10 knots or less between
21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday as a surface ridge axis begins to
build into western Kansas. Light northeast winds late today will
gradually veer to the southeast overnight as this surface ridge
axis slowly moves east southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  58  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  85  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  20
EHA  80  60  83  62 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  83  60  85  62 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  84  55  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
P28  87  61  84  60 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert



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