Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW
WERE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ONE ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WAS MOVING OFF INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LA CROSSE, LARNED
AND PRATT, AND MAYBE AS FAR WEST AS DODGE CITY THROUGH 5 PM.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH CAN`T BE RULED OUT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WERE THE
HIGHEST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
BUCKLIN TO PRATT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
80S, WITH SOME 70S IN RAIN COOLED AREAS. ANY EVENING STORMS WILL
DIE OFF AND THEN THE REST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY, SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT AND CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES INTO
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AGAIN. AFTER A WARMER
DAY SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 90S,
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FALLING INTO 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY. A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLIGHT REDUCTION. THERE COULD
BE SOME EVENING STORMS TOMORROW, BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORE UPSLOPE FLOW AREA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  65  87  65  92 /  20  40  40  20
LBL  66  89  66  91 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  64  87  63  91 /  10  20  20  20
P28  68  89  67  91 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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