Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 201711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PERIODICALLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. ONE SUCH MINOR WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LEE TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO
WESTERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS SEEMS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THAT
IS AFFECTING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS FAR NORTH AS PERRYTON AND MEDICINE LODGE. AS SURFACE
TROUGHING ENCOURAGES SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO LOCATIONS FROM DODGE CITY
SOUTH AND EAST TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE NAM HAS A CHARACTERISTIC
BIAS OF BEING TOO DRY AND WARM AT LOWER LEVELS IN CASES SUCH AS
THIS. THE HRRR AND RAP ARE COOLER AND INDICATE LOW CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSING AS FAR NORTH AS DODGE CITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL TEND TO KEEP DIURNAL RANGES LOWER AND TEMPERATURES
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS AN EXAMPLE, THE TEMPERATURE AT GAGE,
OKLAHOMA STAYED 41F FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE STRATUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER
TODAY IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS SCOTT CITY AND WAKEENEY WHERE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST OR INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT, AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS OUGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A LOT TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO COULD MOVE OUT INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT DURING THE DAY IN THAT AREA
AND HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. FARTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE DUE TO CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY ERODE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY, AREAS AROUND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY STAY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY MORNING, A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEST
STATES DURING THE DAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIQUID. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WITH THE WAVE DROPS INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH
THE TROUGH SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A
FEW FLURRIES TO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME 40 TO 45
MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN KANSAS
BY AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THIS WAVE, HOWEVER. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO CENTRAL KANSAS NEXT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IS THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG. HAVE INSERTED 1/4SM
AND FG FOR KGCK/KDDC. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR KHYS. THE LIFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  33  45  34 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  50  27  50  32 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  51  27  57  34 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  48  31  51  33 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  49  31  48  34 /   0   0  10  10
P28  47  37  47  36 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.