


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
085 FXUS63 KDDC 091001 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - MCS potential tonight mainly for areas along and east of highway 283 - Increasing potential of widespread storms moving across western Kansas late Thursday night and early Friday morning - Cooler temperatures and more rain and storms for this weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 07z upper air and surface analysis shows a 598 dm high centered over Arizona with an upper level shortwave rotating on the northeast side of the high moving through northwest Kansas which has led to some spotty rain showers and storms around Dighton that are continuing to diminish. Moisture profiles continue to show good amounts of moisture in the lower levels across much of southwest Kansas which will play a part in our temperature and thunderstorm forecast for today. Short term model forecasts for today show the 598 dm high continue to stay basically over Arizona with the stronger westerlies rotating along the north and northeast side from Wyoming into western Kansas. Dew point forecast have the better mixing out of moisture mainly along and west of highway 83 where the greatest probability of reaching 100 degrees this afternoon will be along the Colorado border. Later this afternoon with the left exit region of the jet leading to upper level divergence and a shortwave developing in central Nebraska we should see a complex of storms develop and dive basically straight south as the upper level steering will have winds out of the north-northwest. Given that the higher moisture will be in our eastern zones and 700 mb temperatures should be cooler (~10- 12 C) the cap should be weaker to allow ongoing MCS development and maintenance as the storms enter into northern Kansas. Severe weather threat with these storms will be mainly gusty winds of 60 mph or greater, brief heavy rain, and isolated large hail. Timeframe for these storms will be late afternoon to sunset around Hays and then in the evening to near midnight for areas from Dodge City to Medicine Lodge. Thursday the model trends have been shifting the strongest of the heat to the west and south as a stout trough will dampen the ridge and upper high in the desert southwest. So far many short term and global models still think decent mixing from southwest winds will occur and temperatures will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. However the NAM is trending to have less mixing and an area of enhanced moisture ahead of the shortwave coming out of Colorado Thursday night. Given that models haven`t been handling the moisture profiles recently and due to the higher amount of moisture in the low levels this trend may start to show in other models. Thursday night as the shortwave comes out of COlorado another round of thunderstorms will develop in the front range and evolve into a squall line that will move into western Kansas after sunset. SPC has kept a slight risk of severe weather mainly along and north of the K-96 corridor and wind gusts greater than 60 mph will continue to be the threat. For the weekend models have the stronger longwave trough moving through the northern plains which should bring a stronger cold front for this time of year into Kansas during the day on Friday. The frontal boundary is showing signs of stalling out along the highway 50 corridor from Friday night into Saturday. With northwest flow bringing in upper level lift combining with good lower level moisture and the frontal boundary models have areas of higher QPF (> 1 inch) starting to appear in southwest Kansas with NBM probabilities of 10% chance of getting more than 1 inch. WPC has highlighted heavy rain potential in southwest Kansas for this weekend and isolated flash flooding potential can`t be ruled out if these storms train along the front. The active weather pattern will probably continue into next week as LREF upper level trends have the upper high staying over the western CONUS and the stronger westerlies and shortwaves continuing to move through the central and northern plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 In general VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds should increase after 15Z and especially after 18Z to sustained around 15 kts and gusts around 25 kts. Models have a developing thunderstorm complex in southern Nebraska in the afternoon that will move into central Kansas and could affect HYS between 00-03Z. Storms could contain gusty downburst winds to 50 kts and heavy rain that could briefly drop the flight category. Storms will be near DDC between 03-06Z so VCTS wording will be included in the TAF. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro