Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Broad high pressure again was positioned from the northern plains
through the southern plains this afternoon. There was a
thermal/moisture gradient around 850 mb over northwest Kansas where
thunderstorms this morning slowly advanced southeast into the west
central counties.  The HRRR and other convective allowing models
depict the heavier activity to become much less organized and
smaller in areal coverage in the coming hours as it continues
southeast into south central Kansas.

The rain cooled air behind this activity, already in the 50s will
lead to even cooler temperatures for much of the area heading into
the evening, mainly over the northern counties.

Temperatures tonight may be modified heavily by the next few runs of
the Hi-res rapid refresh model. Low clouds/stratus that was already
being developed in the far southwest by the RAP13km/HRRR and HiRes
NMM may be more widespread overnight as well following the rains
across the  area this afternoon.

Models show the the low clouds slow to break up early Monday. The
same conditionally unstable atmosphere will still be in place with
the return of weak to moderate surface based CAPE. There does not
appear to be much of a forcing mechanism for lift until the evening
hours when a front slides south into central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The cool period of the weekend and early part of the workweek will
come to an end as a broad upper ridge followed by zonal upper flow
and southwest downslope boundary layer air. Shortwave Tuesday night
may or may not mean thunderstorms for southwest Kansas as there are
differences in the GFS and ECMWF at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Stratus cigs will gradually lower overnight through 12z Mon.
VFR will continue at HYS, but otherwise cigs may fall to MVFR for
several hours at DDC, GCK and especially LBL. After sunrise, cigs
will gradually climb back to VFR with a broken stratocumulus
field. Instability returns on Monday, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected to develop after 21z. Confident on storms
developing, but no confidence on storm placement with forcing
mechanisms lacking. For now, placed VCTS/CB in all TAFs after 21z.
Winds will remain light, outside of convection, during this TAF
period - generally less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  82  62  89 /  30  20  30  10
GCK  55  84  61  90 /  30  20  30  10
EHA  58  83  62  90 /  50  20  20  10
LBL  60  83  63  91 /  30  20  20  10
HYS  55  81  61  88 /  30  20  20  10
P28  60  85  64  89 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner



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