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000
FXUS63 KDDC 282035
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  63  70 /  20  50  90  90
GCK  64  77  63  69 /  20  40  90  90
EHA  64  78  63  74 /  40  60  90  70
LBL  65  78  63  71 /  40  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  66  83  65  70 /  20  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD