Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A dry period will persist into the early part of the weekend as weak
ridging aloft continues to break down as it transitions east across
the Central Plains, quickly giving way to a weak zonal flow aloft
across the Western High Plains tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level
shortwave is projected to push ashore into the Pacific Northwest
tonight and further southeast into the Great Basin Saturday. A lee
side surface low will develop and deepen across southeast Colorado
in response bringing more of a southwest flow to western Kansas
during the day Saturday and reinforcing the drier air mass
lingering across the high plains. This will keep precip chances
out of western Kansas through Saturday night.

A westerly downslope flow will become more southwesterly tonight as
a lee side trough continues to slowly strengthen near and along the
Colorado border, in turn drawing warmer air into the area. Expect
lows only down into the 20s(F) tonight with a few lower to mid
30s(F) possible across south central Kansas and extreme southwest
Kansas. Surface low will develop and deepen across southeast
Colorado and Northeast New Mexico Saturday setting up a more
southerly flow across southwest and central Kansas. This will
support further warm air advection pushing H85 temperatures well
above 10C. Look for highs nearing the lower to mid 60s(F)
Saturday afternoon with a few mid to upper 50s(F) possible in west
central Kansas behind an advancing cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Precip chances remain for south central Kansas early Sunday as
medium range models continue to show an upper level shortwave trough
lifting northeast across the Red River Valley into the Central
Plains early in the period. At the surface, a prevailing southerly
flow will draw a modest amount of moisture into eastern and portions
of central Kansas ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in
western Kansas. An intensifying southwest flow aloft and increased
lift ahead of the frontal boundary will set the stage for possible
light rain development in south central Kansas toward daybreak
Sunday morning. Otherwise, a drier pattern will return early next
week and continue through the middle part of the week as a zonal
flow aloft develops across the Western High Plains.

Colder air will surge into western Kansas Sunday behind a departing
cold front dropping H85 temperatures to near 0C across much of
western Kansas. Look for highs only up into the 40s(F) Sunday
afternoon with near 50F still possible in south central Kansas. A
developing westerly downslope flow will support highs pushing into
the 50s(F) Monday with similar highs likely Tuesday as a surface
high migrates across the high plains. Strong southerlies are
expected Wednesday as a developing lee side trough strengthens
across eastern Colorado helping to push highs further above normal,
possibly into the 60s(F).


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. SW winds tonight with southerly breezy
winds tomorrow. Strongest winds south of an approaching frontal boundary
at KDDC/KLBL. Front will eventually sag south with N/NE winds in
its wake towards and past end of TAF pd.


DDC  28  59  30  44 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  24  59  27  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  60  26  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  61  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  58  30  42 /   0   0  10   0
P28  29  60  37  50 /   0   0  50  10




LONG TERM...JJohnson
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