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000
FXUS63 KDDC 230806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert