Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 251735
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Stubborn wraparound stratus slowly eroding from west to east this
afternoon, but may hold all day across parts of the easternmost
counties. Temporary shortwave ridge axis will spread over SW KS
late this afternoon and this evening, with several hours of
pleasant weather, a clear sky and light NE winds.
Next strong shortwave, near Las Vegas currently, races quickly
east tonight, approaching SW KS by 7 am. Upon its approach, winds
will veer SEly and become gusty overnight. With this moistening
upslope flow, stratus will quickly expand back westward again
through sunrise Sunday. Have high confidence in this stratus
evolution, less confidence on the extent of fog. Included areas of
fog across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA for now, and will advise
this evening`s shift to monitor. With clouds, moisture and SE
winds, temperatures again tonight well above normal, in the upper
30s and lower 40s.
Sunday...Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming more likely in
the afternoon. Closed low and shortwave move directly over SW KS
through 7 pm. With associated cooling midlevel temperatures (-21C
at 500 mb), scattered convective rain showers and isolated thunder
are expected by afternoon. Coverage will favor the eastern 1/2 of
the zones, given progged lift ahead of progressive shortwave. Some
strong storms are possible across the SE zones in proximity to the
Oklahoma border Sunday afternoon, closest to the instability axis.
Primary threat of severe weather is expected to remain relegated
to Oklahoma. With morning fog, plenty of clouds, an easterly wind
component and afternoon showers, forecasted temperatures may be
too warm. Kept the inherited forecast of mainly 60s Sunday
afternoon, but wouldn`t be surprised if many locales are
restricted to the 50s.
Rain coverage is expected to improve across the eastern 1/2 of the
CWA for several hours Sunday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
On Sunday, a synoptic wave will move across Kansas. Most of the precipitation
looks to be tied to warm sector convection across Oklahoma. However...
there could be some precip though lingering north of the warm front.
Therefore, have the highest pops across the southeastern zones. Any
precipitation elsewhere looks to be light as the best lift is not located
in this second region. Wherever the warm front sets up will determine
where the highest highs for Sunday will be located. Have lower 70s
near the Okla border and 60s for the rest of the domain. The best instability
also looks to remain SE/S of the forecast area in terms of severe tstorms.
Beyond this, shortwave ridging will allow for a dry forecast. The next
shot at precipitation does not enter the forecast picture until Tuesday.
Another wave with an open Gulf still spells out the concern for much
needed precip across the forecast district. Severe doesn`t look particularly
high as SW Kan will remain on the cold side. More post frontal precipitation
may linger Wednesday. The EC still shows some impressive QPF amounts.
The model continues to shift the heavy amount axis with each run. However,
the trend of a wetter pattern still prevails. The FB pops and temps
looks reasonable for now in the extended.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Wraparound stratus behind the departing cyclone will continue to
very gradually erode west to east this afternoon, clearing HYS by
late afternoon. Temporary shortwave ridging will provide several
hours of good flying weather this afternoon and evening at GCK,
DDC and LBL, with SKC and diminishing NE winds. This will not
last, as next strong shortwave approaches by 12z Sun. All model
guidance shows boundary layer flow veering SE and becoming gusty
by 12z Sun, in response to the approaching shortwave. With
moistening upslope SE flow, high confidence that stratus will
return to all airports, as shown by 12z NAM forecast soundings.
IFR/MVFR cigs likely for several hours Sunday morning, with
reduced vis in BR/fog possible. Just after this TAF period,
scattered -SHRA expected by 00z Mon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 39 66 40 / 0 0 40 50
GCK 65 39 65 39 / 0 0 30 50
EHA 67 39 63 38 / 0 0 30 20
LBL 66 40 67 40 / 0 0 30 30
HYS 56 37 62 41 / 0 0 50 60
P28 59 39 69 45 / 0 0 40 70