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000
FXUS63 KDDC 011023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID
MORNING. BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN
MVFR STRATUS AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL