Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260853
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE SHORT TERM. DRIER AIR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM
THIS MORNING.  THE NOSE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN KS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING A WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA, AND BRINGING LIGHTLY MORE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND A MARKED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS SUPPORT
LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KS. BY TONIGHT, THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE DDC CWA. HOWEVER,
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND COULD HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

OVERALL, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL BY LATE
MARCH STANDARDS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST
FLOW JET STREAK WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND A REINFORCING POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FRIDAY WITH A FAIRLY SHARP
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT EXPECTED. WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 FROM HAYS TO
PRATT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY SMALL SCALE, BUT SOMEWHAT INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER HIGHS WILL BE
REALIZED, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTH, RESULTING
IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES LESS
THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE
MARCH. THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
CONTINUED ZONAL MOMENTUM ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO A LOT OF
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE. THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH MAY
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO COME BACK UP INTO KANSAS BY MID NEXT WEEK,
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS WILL BE MANIFEST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A NARROW POST FRONTAL VERY LIGHT RAIN BAND IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A CLEARING LINE IS NOTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL,
AND CLEARING ANTICIPATED AT HYS AND DDC IN THE COMING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY ONCE BONDARY LAYER MIXING DEVELOPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  34  68  41 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  63  34  71  41 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  63  36  73  42 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  63  35  71  41 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  60  31  61  38 /  10  10  10   0
P28  62  37  61  41 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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