Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014
...Update to aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
Dry upper level northwest flow will persist tonight into Thursday
behind the current exiting upper level wave and rain shield. Will
continue to decrease rainfall chances by this evening with only a 20
percent chance at Medicine Lodge early this evening. Skies will
partially clear tonight with partly cloudy skies on Thursday.
Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph this afternoon will decrease to
light and variable this evening into Thursday as surface high
pressure builds into western Kansas.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to around 60 tonight
with highs warming back into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Highs
may not warm as much as guidance with the wet soils.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
A weak shortwave trough will be progressing southward into the
central plains on the back side of a large, upper level, Great
Lakes trough late Thursday. However, precipitation is not expected
across southwestern Kansas with this system given the lack of
instability and presence of surface high pressure. After this
time, upper level ridging will gradually build into western
Kansas, with minimal chances for rainfall. Surface winds will be
fairly light by western Kansas standard through Saturday, then
increasing to 10-15 mph by Sunday as a weak lee trough develops.
High temperatures will be mainly in the upper 80s, but perhaps
warming to around 90F by Sunday or Monday. Overnight lows will
rise from near 60F Friday to the mid to upper 60s by Monday and
Tuesday as low level moisture and surface winds slowly increase. A
shortwave trough riding over the upper level ridge may approach
western Kansas by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with chances for
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014
VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. There could be some patchy fog
this morning across south-central Kansas, however, this will probably
be SE of the terminals. Otherwise, some lingering mid level clouds with
no reduction of flight category. Light and variable winds through much
of the day.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 83 60 88 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 57 83 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 59 80 59 87 / 10 0 0 10
LBL 60 83 60 88 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 58 86 61 90 / 10 0 0 10
P28 60 83 61 89 / 30 0 0 0