Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 281100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

A strong upper level storm system will amplify over the western
United States and then eject in negative tilt fashion across the
central high plains by late Friday. Meanwhile, very rich low level
moisture was poised along the gulf coast to make a rapid return
into the southern plains ahead of surface low pressure. Another
upper level system will move into the southwestern United States
by Saturday and across the southern and central plains by Sunday
and Monday. After Monday, upper level ridging will develop across
the Rockies, with troughing over the eastern United States.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

A few sprinkles were occurring early this morning along
a mid level baroclinic zone with mid level moisture. Isentropic
lift will increase late today in the cool air north of a
developing baroclinic zone as the aforementioned upper level
trough approaches and surface low pressure develops over West
Texas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected
starting this evening and persisting through the night. Lows will
be mainly in the 40s after highs today in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Rain and thunderstorms will persist through Friday before
tapering off late in the day. Rain amounts will exceed 1 inch in
some places. Given the cool upslope flow and rainfall,
temperatures will not get out of the 40s in far western Kansas,
with some lower to mid 50s father east. Temperatures should fall
into the 30s to lower 40s by Saturday morning, with the coldest
readings along the Colorado state line in the lower to middle 30s.
The next chance of rain will be late Sunday as the next upper
level system approaches along with isentropic lift. Cool
temperatures will persist through Sunday but a moderating trend
can be expected by early to mid next week as the upper level
troughing moves off to the east and upper level ridging develops
over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

VFR will continue through 00z Fri. SCT/BKN mid/high clouds through
this afternoon. All airports dry through 00z. By 00z, surface
cyclogenesis in E NM will increase NE winds across SW KS, with
gusts of 20-25 kts.

High confidence that flight conditions will degrade rapidly after
00z Fri, with widespread -SHRA, occasional -TSRA, and cigs
lowering to IFR/LIFR in stratus. Consensus of short term models
places LIFR stratus cigs across all of SW KS by 12z Fri. Gusty
NE winds will persist through 12z Friday, as pressure gradients
remain tight. Strongest gusts near 30 kts at GCK. Poor flying
weather will continue Friday, with widespread -RA and IFR/LIFR
stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  45  52  39 /  10  90  90  70
GCK  63  42  49  37 /  10  90  90  60
EHA  66  44  54  34 /  50  80  80  30
LBL  68  47  55  39 /  60  90  80  40
HYS  61  43  51  42 /  10  70  90  80
P28  69  51  64  44 /  10  70  80  80

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.