Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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828
FXUS63 KDDC 280759
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
259 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...Updated Short term and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Ongoing fog will continue across much of western Kansas through
late morning. Along with the fog there may be some areas of
mist/drizzle but little or no accumulation is expected. The NAM,
GFS, and ECMWF were all in good agreement with moisture and lift
improving in the 700mb to 500mb level early this morning as an
upper low slowly moves east across New Mexico. The drier air below
the 700mb level will then begin to saturate and by late morning
rain showers will be likely west of Dodge City. This precipitation
will then increase in coverage as it expands eastwards towards
central Kansas late today. By evening widespread rain showers can
be expected. These showers will then continue during the overnight
as the upper low approaches the panhandle of Texas. The east
winds today will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range as an area
of low pressure at the surface deepens over eastern New Mexico.

Increasing low level moisture may help temperatures warm some
today under cloudy skies and developing widespread precipitation.
Will trend to undercut guidance for highs in all locations but
south central Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight ahead of a
400mb PV anomaly as it lifts northeast towards southwest Kansas.
Ahead of this wave improving 850mb warm air advection and 700mb to
500mb lapse rates will increase to around 7.5C/km. Periods of
steadier and heavier rainfall may also be possible with these
storms, especially near an area of enhancing 850mb frontogenesis
that is forecast to develop overnight across western Kansas. Even
taking into account this period of heavier rainfall over western
Kansas tonight it does not appear that water issues will be a
problem given how dry it has been.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

On Wednesday as the upper low moves out into the Texas Panhandle
there should still be some mid level instability under the upper
low so have kept a mention of thunder going through the day on
Wednesday as the ongoing occasional rain continues. The best
forcing during the day should stay near the 850mb frontogenetic
band and near the upper level deformation zone on the northwest
side of this upper level system as it lifts northeast. Little
diurnal change in temperatures again are expected given the
expected clouds and precipitation. Highs on Wednesday will likely
stay only in the 45 to 50 degree range across western Kansas. In
addition to these unseasonably cool temperatures the easterly
winds are expected to increase given the deepening surface low as
it crosses from the Panhandle of Texas to northwest Oklahoma.

Total rainfall from this event on average should easily range
between 1 and 2.5 but over 3 inches is not out of the question
given the enhanced forcing expected Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. At this time the exact location of where the steadier
and heavier rainfall will occur is still somewhat unclear so will
not get too detailed on where the highest amounts of rainfall will
occur.

From Wednesday night into early Thursday this upper low will open
up as it lifts northeast towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. As
this system moves east into eastern Kansas Wednesday night the
northeasterly winds will begin to usher in some cooler air into
southwest Kansas. The precipitation will be tapering off from
southwest to northeast during the overnight period and despite
some cooler air returning to southwest Kansas early Thursday the
models soundings continue to support only liquid precipitation
through early Thursday morning.

On Thursday clearing skies are expected and given the warming
forecast in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs Thursday should
climb easily into the 50s. A few 60s are not out of the question
in extreme southwest Kansas.

On Friday the next upper level system will begin to dig into the
southwestern United States. As it does an area of low pressure a
the surface will again develop over northeast New Mexico and a
southeasterly flow will develop over southwest Kansas. This will
once again draw more humid air back into western Kansas Friday
night into Saturday and set the stage for our next chance for
convection

Confidence is not high when it comes to precipitation chances
over the weekend given the differing solutions on track and timing
of this deepening low. Will therefore stay close to persistence
and follow the latest guidance from Saturday through Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Models remain in good agreement that IFR and LIFR stratus and fog
will spread across southwest Kansas overnight as a east to southeasterly
wind continues at around 10 knots. Based on HRRR and SREF prob
the IFR stratus will first spread into western Kansas after 08z
Tuesday followed by the IFR visibilities in fog, especially at DDC
and GCK. Patchy to areas of dense fog does appear possible
between 10z and 17z Tuesday so will trend the 06z TAFS in the
direction. IFR Stratus will continue through the remainder of the
day and into the evening period but ceilings may improve slightly
as gusty east winds develop Between 12z and 15z Tuesday west of
DDC and HYS there will be a chance for some showers or sprinkles
as 700mb to 500mb moisture and lift begins to improve. For the DDC
and HYS areas the onset of precipitation should hold off until
after 15z based on the dry layer forecast below the 700mb layer
from the RAP model soundings. East to southeast winds will
continue through early tonight but wind speeds are expected to
increase into the 15 to 20 knot range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  45  51  38 /  90  90  90  60
GCK  48  44  48  36 /  90  90  90  70
EHA  50  41  47  35 /  80  80  90  60
LBL  49  45  51  37 /  90  90  90  60
HYS  50  45  48  39 /  90  90  90  70
P28  59  52  60  43 /  80  90  80  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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