Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251147
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
647 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Upper level high pressure continues to dominate much of the
central and southern Plains, having built eastward out of the
Rockies again over the past day. Mid level flow over western
Kansas has taken a slight southwesterly component which is
allowing warmer air to spread back out over the region. High
temperatures on Tuesday were in the mid 90s to around 100 and they
should be that warm again today, if not a degree or two warmer.
Heat indices over central and south central Kansas should top 100
degrees but it appears that they will stay below 105 so no Heat
Advisory headlines are anticipated.

A weak upper disturbance over the Great Basin this morning will
lift northeastward over the upper high and move out over South
Dakota and Nebraska tonight. This will likely help sustain an area
of showers and thunderstorms moving out of the Front Range and across
Nebraska and northern Kansas this evening and tonight. Some model
solutions continue to show precipitation as far south as Highway
96 but some of the Hi-Res models are keeping it confined to far
northern Kansas. Will maintain some slight chance pops over
northern sections of the forecast area tonight but not overly
confident in this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

On Wednesday into Wednesday night, a cold front is forecast to
move southeast across western and central Kansas. There will be
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms along and behind
the front. The front slides south of the area by Thursday morning
with much cooler air in place across southwest Kansas. Highs on
Thursday may only make the mid 80s in some places and the forecast
continues to trend in that direction. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible along and north of the Oklahoma border Thursday and
Friday especially as the region will be under some influence of the
right entrance region of an upper jet over the northern Plains.

The upper ridge retrogrades into the Rockies toward the weekend with
northwesterly flow aloft over western Kansas. We could see additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms over western Kansas in this
flow regime. At any rate, daytime high temperatures will remain
seasonal in the upper 80s and low 90s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

VFR conditions will continue in the summer pattern today and
tonight. Wind direction will remain out of the south through the
period, but late morning through late afternoon wind speeds will
ramp up to 14 to 17 knots sustained with gusts to mid 20s knots.
Thunderstorm probability is too low to include in TAF at this time
with much of this activity well to the west and northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76  99  69 /  10  10  20  40
GCK  98  73  96  68 /  10  10  20  30
EHA  96  72  93  67 /  10  10  30  50
LBL 100  75  98  70 /  10  10  20  40
HYS 100  76  98  68 /  10  20  30  40
P28  99  76 102  74 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid



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