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000
FXUS63 KDDC 020819
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
219 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013

...Updated short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

Westerly flow continues in the upper levels of the atmosphere over
much of the country this evening. A weak shortwave trough at 500
millibars was moving over the central plains. The westerly flow was
increasing over the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies as a
strong upper jet moves onshore. At the surface, a weak broad low
pressure trough extended from the western Dakotas into central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue through tonight over the
central High Plains. The strong 250 millibar jet will continue to
propagate eastward and sag slowly southward through Tuesday morning.
A long fetch of scattered to broken cirriform cloudiness associated
with the upper jet will continue to spread east over western
Kansas today. Westerly downslope winds at the surface will also
continue through much of today before the lee side trough redevelops
in the lee of the Rockies later this afternoon and tonight. Believe
that the downsloping winds will help push daytime high temperatures
into the mid 60s across much of southwest and central Kansas in
spite of the scattered to occasionally broken cirrus clouds.

Tonight we should continue to see the scattered to broken high
cloudiness continuing to stream over the central High Plains.
Winds will switch back to the south at 5 to 15 mph. Overnight low
temperatures should drop back to around or a little above mos
guidance temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

The approaching arctic airmass presents the greatest challenge in
the forecast -- especially with respect to timing of the front
Tuesday and magnitude of cold airmass particularly Thursday through
Saturday. The models have trended just a bit faster with the front
Tuesday with the front most likely reaching an Elkhart to Dodge City
to Great Bend line by early to mid afternoon. The question becomes
how much of a warm-up can occur just ahead of the front.  It seems
likely that 60s will be common ahead of the front...if not well into
the mod to perhaps upper 60s.  Per collaboration with other offices,
have trended cooler in the forecast for Tuesday in the anticipation
of an even faster frontal passage than what the models are currently
showing.  The NAM12 is the fastest with the front, which should be
respected given this model`s higher resolution and better terrain
(and the non-hydrostatic influence the terrain has on density
currents on the High Plains). Fronts typically move through faster
than what global spectral models forecast in the 2-3 day time frame.
The forecast after Tuesday was really not altered that much as the
handling of the arctic air was already pretty good in the grids. We
did, however, go just a bit colder for Thursday and Friday as
confidence is growing that temperatures will not escape the teens
over much of southwest Kansas.

Snow chances continue to look decent, however development in the
700-500mb layer will not be strong enough to support substantial
accumulating snow anywhere across southwest Kansas...as it appears
now. There will be a tight thermal gradient at 700mb Wednesday Night
into Thursday...with the best chance for some deformation along the
700mb front and snow chances coming late Thursday and Thursday
Night. Given how cold the airmass will be...a tenth of an inch of
precipitation may yield a couple inches of snow during this time
frame. This shortwave trough will be shifting to the east Friday
with the arctic ridge firmly in place.  A little bit of sun Friday
may not make it feel as cold...but cold it will be...with -15C 850mb
temperatures supporting highs only in the 19 to 24F range across the
southwest Kansas region. The airmass will modify a bit going into
the Day 6-8 time frame...but another jet digging south out west
reinforcing the cold mid level trough may set the stage for a snow
event on the Central Plains somewhere during this time frame Dec
8-10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

VFR conditions can be expected through this taf period. A broad weak
surface low pressure trough will extend from the Dakotas into
eastern Kansas through much of the period. This will lead to generally
light westerly winds through Monday. The winds will become southerly
by Monday evening as the low pressure trough reforms in the lee of
the Rockies.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  35  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  65  31  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  37  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  67  35  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  66  34  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
P28  65  35  57  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard