Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171726 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE 850MB TO 600MB LEVEL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS I295K AND I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
AHEAD AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF 700MB TO 500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH THE LATEST RAP, NAM AND EVEN GFS HAD LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY TO PRATT AT 12Z THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
BASED ON THIS CLEARING TREND EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE 00Z THURSDAY
NAM AND GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE DAY.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
BASED ON THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK MAINLY INTO THE MID 30S. DID HOWEVER FAVOR LOWS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE
MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL TRIM A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A fairly active split upper level flow pattern will persist
through the extended period as indicated by the 00z runs of the
GFS, ECMWF and GEM models. At the beginning of the period on
Friday, a shortwave ridge will be moving over the central Plains.
Two separate but phased upper level shortwave troughs will be
moving into the western states. As the weekend progresses, the
northern stream wave will move from the Pacific Northwest into
southern Canada while the southern stream wave approaches the
central and southern Plains. The models suggest that this southern
stream wave may come out in two pieces with the first one moving
out over southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening while the
main wave moves out on Sunday. In the lower levels, them models
show increasing southerly flow into the central Plains while a
frontal boundary pushes south into northwestern Kansas. Model
soundings show some moderate instability developing with some low
level convergence increasing along the front. Will continue the
chance pops currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon. It
appears that the best chances for precipitation will be from west
central into central and south central Kansas Saturday night and
Sunday. There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in
south central Kansas Sunday evening but precipitation chances
should be winding down fairly quickly as the mid level wave moves
east.

Dry and mild weather can be expected through the first half of next
week as upper level ridging dominates the central Plains. By
midweek, the models show another strong wave moving out of the
west. There are some timing differences with this next system.  The
ECMWF and GEM show a fairly robust and slightly negatively tilted
wave moving out by Wednesday with a dryline setting up somewhere
over southwest into south central Kansas. The GFS shows the wave
moving out on Thursday. A lot of uncertainty this far out, but there
is some potential for severe thunderstorms with surface dewpoints
into the 50s and stronger flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Rapid clearing and return to VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening as an upper level shortwave
trough moves east. Light and variable winds will become light
southeast this afternoon, then become southerly after midnight.
Some stratus may form towards 10-12Z with some IFR/MFVR cigs into
15Z mainly west of the Dodge City terminal. Winds increase with
good mixing to the south after 16Z at 20-30kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  37  73  52 / 100   0   0  10
GCK  56  38  75  52 /  90   0   0  10
EHA  55  38  76  53 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  55  38  77  52 /  90   0   0  10
HYS  56  35  74  52 /  10   0   0  10
P28  50  36  72  53 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse






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