Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 021100
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 1 2013
Westerly flow continues in the upper levels of the atmosphere over
much of the country this evening. A weak shortwave trough at 500
millibars was moving over the central plains. The westerly flow was
increasing over the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies as a
strong upper jet moves onshore. At the surface, a weak broad low
pressure trough extended from the western Dakotas into central Kansas.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013
The northwesterly flow aloft will continue through tonight over the
central High Plains. The strong 250 millibar jet will continue to
propagate eastward and sag slowly southward through Tuesday morning.
A long fetch of scattered to broken cirriform cloudiness associated
with the upper jet will continue to spread east over western
Kansas today. Westerly downslope winds at the surface will also
continue through much of today before the lee side trough redevelops
in the lee of the Rockies later this afternoon and tonight. Believe
that the downsloping winds will help push daytime high temperatures
into the mid 60s across much of southwest and central Kansas in
spite of the scattered to occasionally broken cirrus clouds.
Tonight we should continue to see the scattered to broken high
cloudiness continuing to stream over the central High Plains.
Winds will switch back to the south at 5 to 15 mph. Overnight low
temperatures should drop back to around or a little above mos
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013
Medium range models continue to indicate an upper level shortwave
trough quickly kicking eastward across the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains Tuesday while an elongated trough axis moves south
out of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region. Although
a cold front attendant to the shortwave in the Northern Plains will
push southward into the Western High Plains by Tuesday night, little
if any precip is expected across western Kansas with a lack of
low/mid level moisture. However, a slight chance for snow will be
possible across portions of western Kansas Wednesday night into
Thursday as the elongated upper level trough in the far western
conus begins to edge slowly eastward across the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will be a challenge on Tuesday with uncertainty
remaining between the models as it pertains to the arrival of the
cold front into western Kansas. The NAM/GFS are in fair agreement
projecting the frontal passage to occur sometime mid to late in the
day Tuesday while the ECMWF shows an estimated 6 hour lag time.
Still, with H85 temperatures of 12C to 15C pooling ahead of the
approaching front, above seasonal high temperatures are expected
Tuesday. Look for highs up into the 50s(F) with the 60s(F) still
possible across south central Kansas. Colder air will surge
southward into western Kansas Wednesday behind the strong cold
front as it plunges down into the South Plains. With the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF showing H85 temperatures dropping as low as 10C
below zero, highs are only expected up into the mid and upper
20s(F) to possibly the 30s(F) closer to the Oklahoma border
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain frigid well into the weekend
with little change expected to the overall cold air mass across
the Western High Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. A weak lee side trough of low pressure will persist
across extreme eastern Colorado through tonight resulting in
light west to southwesterly winds of 5 to 15kt throughout the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 35 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 65 31 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 68 37 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 35 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 66 34 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
P28 65 35 59 25 / 0 0 0 0