Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020549
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Short range models indicate a general westerly flow aloft
prevailing across the Western High Plains tonight as upper level
ridging remains predominate across the Desert Southwest. Although
the flow aloft will remain fairly weak across southwest and south
central Kansas, the NAM and GFS do show a modest +60kt jet core
streaming east out of the Colorado Rockies into southern Nebraska
and northern portions of Kansas with a right exit region setting
up across northwest and north central Kansas late tonight. As a
low level jet develops generally across southwest and south
central Kansas overnight, a few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas
where an H7 baroclinic zone is expected to reside, not to mention
marginal instability present with MUCAPE values in excess of 500
J/KG. Drier conditions will take hold across much of central and
western Kansas Wednesday as upper level ridging builds northward
across the Central Plains.

Little change is expected to low temperatures tonight as a prevailing
low level southerly flow continues to reinforce the warmer air
mass in place across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for
lows down into the 70s(F) across south central Kansas with a few
upper 60s(F) possible in west central Kansas. Highs are expected
well up into the 90s(F) Wednesday afternoon as southerlies persist.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Generally dry conditions are likely to persist across central and
much of southwest Kansas through the end of the week as an upper
level ridge continues to amplify northward across the Central Plains.
The only outside chance for any precip will be limited to the
vicinity of a surface trough anchored near and along the Colorado
border as a series of H5 vort maxima lift northeast out of the
trough axis across the Southern Rockies. This will likely set off
diurnally driven thunderstorms along the front range of the Rockies
with the potential for storms drifting eastward into extreme
southwest or west central Kansas overnight each night through the
early part of the weekend. Above seasonal temperatures are expected
each day through the early part of the weekend as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the warm air mass across the high plains
of western Kansas. Widespread 90s(F) are likley for highs each day
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR flight categories will hold through this TAF period. Southerly
surface winds will remain steady around 12 knots and become gusty in
the late morning due to boundary layer mixing. Convection, even
elevated or high based is not expected for any of the terminal
locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  96  68  94 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  96  67  94 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  97  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
P28  70  95  72  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell



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