Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200514
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1114 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Boundary layer moisture continues to increase this afternoon, as
observed with dew points across our south central Kansas counties
making it to the 50 degree threshold. Fog and expanding stratus
could redevelop just as the loss of isolation begins across that
region. Additionally, the NAM family of models has been in general
agreement with spreading showers and embedded thunderstorms north
across the area from western OK around 00 UTC and though central
Kansas though midnight, with precipitation generally ending after
that. As the precipitation moves off to the east towards early
Monday morning, the HRRR at this time developing another round of
advection fog through the highway 183 corridor, which may cause
travel problems in those areas as was the case last night and this
morning. With a wave moving through the region, the fog won`t linger
anywhere near as long as it did this morning, as westerly downslope
surface winds develop by around 12 UTC Monday.

On Monday, an 850 mb ridge shifts across western Kansas with breezy
northwest surface winds preceding light winds heading into the
evening and overnight. Temperatures  may be similar to what we`ve seen
on Sunday. The initial 850 mb cold pool will quickly be replaced
with adiabatically warmed air with NAM taking surface temperatures
into the 60s by mid afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Moderation right back into the climatological abnormally warm regime
through mid week is expected starting Tuesday. Looking like 80
degrees can`t be ruled out any of the days Tuesday through Thursday
near the OK line. The next wave continues to be advertised by the
models by late Thursday and Friday timeframe, with a chance for snow
and rainshowers precluding a colder and windier Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 knots at 06z will veer to the
southwest to west by 10z Monday. While winds are southeasterly in
the Hays and Dodge City area some patchy fog will be possible
with MVFR visibilities.

Gusty northwest winds at 15 to around 20s are expected to develop
between 14z and 18z Monday at all three taf sites behind a
surface cold front drops south across western Kansas. These gusty
winds will begin to subside late day and after 00z Tuesday the
northwest winds will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot range as a
surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. NAM and
GFS model soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Hamilton and Kearney counties were added to the Fire Weather Watch
primarily covering northwest KS and northeastern CO for Monday
afternoon. Any combination of slightly warmer temperatures or
drier dew points than the models are showing could easily send
the area (or more) into the red flag criteria for around 3 hours
or so late Monday afternoon. Notably the ECMWF has much drier dew
points than our current mesoscale model runs. Other than that, dry
fuels and breezy winds it the afternoon would discourage outdoor
burning across the entire area west of highway 283.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  69  37  75 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  43  67  31  76 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  39  67  35  77 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  43  69  33  77 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  49  66  37  75 /  20   0   0   0
P28  54  71  38  76 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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