Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 120005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

After coordinating with WFO AMA, and their issuance of a winter
storm watch for Beaver county, Oklahoma, expanded the winter storm
watch to include Meade county. This lines up well with the storm
total ice grids produced on this shift.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Strong but dry arctic cold front entering the northern zones at
midday, with north winds gusting over 30 mph near Hays. Decent
cold air advection behind the front will continue to push the
boundary SW across SW kS this afternoon, reaching Morton county
early this evening. Temperatures across the NE zones will hold
steady in the 30s and 40s this afternoon, as cold air advection
balances insolation. Ahead of the cold front, strong warming is in
progress (already 60 degrees here at the office), with downslope
and prefrontal compression doing its thing. Many locations south
of Dodge City likely to eclipse 70 this afternoon. Enjoy it while
we got it.

Tonight...Cold/dry advection continues, as surface high builds
into eastern Nebraska. Dry advection driving dewpoints down
through sunrise Thursday is expected to preclude fog/stratus
development behind the front tonight. Given the dry air, weakening
winds, and mostly clear sky, followed the coldest guidance for
lows tonight, well down into the teens along and north of U.S.
highway 50.

Thursday...Much cooler. Temperatures return to January reality, as
NE winds and cold air advection emanate from strong 1040 mb arctic
high pressure building into South Dakota. Temperatures will
struggle to reach freezing across the NE zones. Expecting about a
20 degree gradient across the CWA Thursday afternoon, ranging from
near 30 near Hays, to near 50 near Elkhart. Dry weather continues
Thursday, but all models show thickening/lowering mid/high clouds
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

...Dangerous ice storm possible this weekend...

Friday...Colder. Surface ridging from strong 1050 mb arctic
surface high near Minnesota will be maintained, with NE surface
winds maintaining cold air advection and afternoon temperatures in
the 20s. Much of Friday daytime will be dry, although consensus of
models begins to push light freezing rain into the southern/SE
zones by late Friday afternoon.

Extremely complex forecast Friday night through Monday. After
extensive collaboration with WPC and surrounding WFOs, have issued
a winter storm watch for areas near and SE of Dodge City. This
watch starts at 6 pm Friday, and continues through 6 pm Sunday,
for now. An extension in time is likely, as impacts will continue
into Monday morning. This watch issuance is much earlier than
usual, but confidence of ice accumulation impacts is increasing
across the SE CWA. Used the stormtotalice grids as a guide to
watch placement, matching with WFOs Norman/Wichita. This watch is
an attempt to display where our confidence in damaging ice
accumulations (>1/2 inch) is most likely.

Saturday...Freezing rain becoming more likely during the day.
Strong 554 dm closed low progged by 12z ECMWF to be in the
northern Gulf of California at 6 pm. Tremendous warm/moist
advection will override the shallow cold air at the surface, with
precipitation expanding Saturday afternoon and evening. Pops are
in the likely category across the SE 1/2 of the CWA, which matches
12z MEX guidance. Obviously, temperature profiles and surface
temperatures will be critical during this time. Hourly surface
temperatures in the grids are running 27-32. Thus, icing is
expected to intensify near and east of Dodge City by late
Saturday. Lesser precipitation coverage, and a more likely
switchover to sleet, across the NW zones.

Sunday...A big mess, with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow all
expected in SW KS. Weather grids largely follow climatology, with
rain far SE, significant icing south and east of Dodge City, a mix
across the central counties, and all snow across the far west and
NW zones. Closed low near El Paso at midday Sunday lifts NE
through W TX, ending up near Canadian/Perryton by midnight Sunday
night. Dynamic lift continues to look amazing Sunday
afternoon/night, with impressive diffluence aloft ahead of a very
negatively tilted shortwave. QPF liquid equivalent from 12z ECMWF
still impressive during the Sunday-Sunday night time frame,
ranging from near 1 inch far NW (Hamilton county) to 2.5 inch
across the far SE zones. The ultimate impacts from this event will
come down to largely one thing: how long the cold surface air
remains entrenched, at each respective location, during this heavy
precipitation on Sunday. We have forecasted our best estimate, but
this storm is still about 4 days away, and fully expect thermal
profile expectations to change. On paper, it is possible for a
major snowstorm to be ongoing Sunday across the W/NW zones, a
crippling ice storm across the south central/ east central
counties, and potentially flooding/hydrology issues across the SE.
Some thunder is likely as the intense lift moves NE into SW KS
late Sunday.

Monday...Preferred 12z ECMWF storm track, which shows continuity
from its previous runs, places the strong closed low into central
Kansas by midday. Wraparound snow will continue across the NW
zones through at least Monday morning. During Monday, NW winds
will increase behind the departing cyclone. This may end up being
the most critical time for power crews, as NW winds stress trees
and power lines.

Recommended actions: Please stay tuned for later forecast updates
the next couple days. The exact storm track will be critical in
determining exact precipitation types, and consequently impacts
for each location. The storm in question is currently in Oregon,
and will take a long track through San Diego and northern Mexico,
before it arrives. This is a high confidence forecast for
widespread winter weather impacts, but exactly who gets what, can
only be addressed with broadbrushed strokes for now. We urge
residents, especially SE of Dodge City, to make preparations for
an ice storm and possible power outages, with the highest impacts
centered near the Sunday-Sunday night time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

An arctic cold front passing late this afternoon shifted winds to
the northeast. This wind direction will remain essentially
unchanged through the period. Flight category will remain VFR as
well, with moisture still well to the south.


DDC  14  37  16  27 /   0   0   0  20
GCK  16  40  14  29 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  31  49  19  31 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  26  44  19  28 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  14  30  15  25 /   0   0   0  10
P28  18  38  21  29 /   0   0   0  30


Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for KSZ065-066-078>081-087>090.



LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.