Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 221737
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
The upper level high pressure system over Colorado and New Mexico
will not be going anywhere over the next two days. A cold front was
draped south across northern Kansas late this morning, with a
surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado. The cold front
will sag slowly south today, and be just north of the I-70
interstate by 7 pm CDT. This front should serve as a convergence
zone, as well as will the trough near the Colorado border. We have
small 20 percent Pops in our west and northerly zones after 23z
today/tonight, extending in the north through about midnight. The
chances are small, but if any storm does break through the cap, they
will likely be high based and with mainly down burst, strong winds
as hazards. The surface is heating up nicely and highs today should
reach the forecasted maxes of 100 to 102F. I plan to keep the Heat
Advisory ongoing through 8 pm, as currently forecast, and will
update it shortly. The convective temp from the DDC 12Z RAOB
showed 98F. I Will brief the next shift on the high based storm
low chances and the main threat being down burst winds.
There will be a few clouds tonight, resulting in partly cloudy
skies. Minimum temperatures should be from near 70F in the west
along the Colorado border, to the mid 70s in the Coldwater and
Medicine lodge areas. Again, the small chances for thunderstorms
will continue through midnight in our northern counties.
The cold front will push south to near our southern border with
Oklahoma Wednesday. This should allow slightly cooler air and some
high level clouds to cover our CWA. Max temperatures will lower
from the past two days, into the mid 90s north of I-70 to the
upper 90s in our south along the Oklahoma border. Winds on
Wednesday should be from the east at 5 to 20 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
A dry pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday as an upper level
ridge builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak
shortwaves will move around the periphery of this ridge, but they
look to move well north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas.
In addition, warm mid level temperatures should also cap most
convection from initialing across the higher terrain in eastern
Colorado. Skies should be partly cloudy through this period. Towards
the surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the
KS/CO border Wednesday through Friday morning allowing southerly
winds to be felt across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs
Wednesday look to reach into the mid to upper 90s with around 100
degrees expected Thursday and Friday. Lows through sunrise Saturday
are expected to be in the lower 70s.
A slight cool down is expected this weekend as winds shift to more
of an easterly direction and storm chances increase. The upper level
ridge slides westward during this time frame as an upper level low
moves down through Central Canada and the Northern Plains Saturday
then into the Great Lakes region Sunday. This low then stalls across
eastern Canada and the Northeast United States for the first part of
next week. This feature will help push a cold front through the area
Saturday and be the focal point of where convection could initiate.
Upslope flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help
with increased low level moisture and continued chances of
thunderstorms. Highs this weekend into Monday look to be in the 90s
with close to 100 degrees across the KS/OK border on Saturday. Lows
will be in the low 70s Sunday morning decreasing to the mid to upper
60s by Tuesday morning.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014
VFR conditions will rule this TAF forecast. Only a few high cirrus
clouds will pass overhead today. Surface winds will be light and
generally from the south to southeast, and may be variable at
times. Skies will clear out tonight, with light surface winds.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 72 96 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 100 72 97 70 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 98 70 98 70 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 100 70 98 70 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 102 72 94 70 / 10 20 10 10
P28 101 74 98 72 / 10 10 10 10
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-