Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261458
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
958 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BROAD HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE SHORT TERM. DRIER AIR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM
THIS MORNING.  THE NOSE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN KS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING A WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA, AND BRINGING LIGHTLY MORE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND A MARKED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS SUPPORT
LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KS. BY TONIGHT, THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE DDC CWA. HOWEVER,
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND COULD HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

OVERALL, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL BY LATE
MARCH STANDARDS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST
FLOW JET STREAK WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND A REINFORCING POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FRIDAY WITH A FAIRLY SHARP
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT EXPECTED. WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 FROM HAYS TO
PRATT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY SMALL SCALE, BUT SOMEWHAT INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER HIGHS WILL BE
REALIZED, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTH, RESULTING
IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES LESS
THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE
MARCH. THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
CONTINUED ZONAL MOMENTUM ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO A LOT OF
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE. THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH MAY
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO COME BACK UP INTO KANSAS BY MID NEXT WEEK,
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS WILL BE MANIFEST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
WIND SHIFTS TODAY. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE THIS
MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. WHEN THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST, THE WIND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 17 TO 20 KNOTS FROM EARLY TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  35  70  41 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  64  34  72  41 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  63  38  73  42 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  64  37  73  41 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  62  31  64  38 /   0  10  10   0
P28  62  37  63  41 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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