Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250516
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

At 00z Thursday a 500mb trough extended from eastern Colorado to
central New Mexico. Another, stronger, upper level system was
located over the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of the New Mexico upper
level trough a surface cold front extended from southwest Kansas
to western Missouri. North of this surface boundary warm air
advection was present based on the location of the 850mb
temperature gradient and south southwest winds. 850mb and 700mb
moisture was also evident, especially near an area of confluent
flow/frotogenesis at the 700mb level in southwest Kansas.

Across the southwest United States a 250mb jet stretched from
western Arizona to the coast of northern California. Near the
nose/left exit region of this upper jet an upper level trough was
evident moving east across western Arizona.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

As an upper level trough, located in eastern New Mexico earlier
this evening, lifts northeast into southwest Kansas overnight the
chances for convection across southwest Kansas will be improving
given the moisture and lift ahead of this upper level wave. Will
therefore be raising chances for convection overnight across
western Kansas. This area of widespread precipitation is then
expected to taper off from southwest to northeast early Thursday
as this upper wave passes. A brief break in the precipitation is
expected early Thursday afternoon, but the next in a series of
upper level system swill then cross western Kansas early Thursday
night.This will bring back another opportunity for widespread
convection, especially in south central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Forecast concern this period is mainly for convective evolution. Right
now, put more emphasis on the 4 km NAM and the ARW, as the NMMB solution
did not initialize well. The net result is two waves of precipitation
tonight and into tomorrow morning. The first will be across the eastern
zones as an enhanced convergence region pivots eventually out across
the forecast area. There may be some marginally severe winds and hail
with bulk shear of 40 kt and LHP values around 5, which is probably
a bit liberal. Radar mosaic is showing a lull in activity right now,
so there might be not much in this first wave. The second wave comes
through the overnight hours. Satellite WV imagery shows a plume of tropical
moisture advecting into the area with PWATS near the 75th percentile.
The above mentioned CAMs show heavy precipitation through the overnight
with isentropic lift over a sfc boundary that is draped across the area.
So, have made a spatiotemporal adjustments to near term pops to blend
in with the NAM and ARW. The HRRR only runs to 08Z, but does show scattered
convection as well. The main threat with this overnight activity will
be heavy rainfall. The 4 km NAM is the highest with the amounts. Have
about half an inch to an inch across the area with the precip starting
in the SW zones and the spreading northwest as the vortmax swings through
along with dynamic lift.

For tomorrow, this has a temperature bust written over it with upslope
northeasterly winds along and over the front. Weak CAA is expected,
so have gone with a cooler solution, particularly up north. Have a gradient
of low 70s to 80s. For precip, the frontogenetical zone sets up slightly
farther to the east and have the highest evening pops across the SE
and E zones.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The overall synoptic pattern still suggests broad southwesterly flow
aloft with lift along a low level baroclinic zone. The net result is
a continuation of thunderstorms through much of the long term domain.
Temperatures will moderate through the end of the week and into the
weekend, but trend close to normal. There might be cooler spots during
this period depending on diurnal convective evolution. A slightly drier
forecast may evolve next week as the warm sector spreads north along
with weak mid level ridging. The EC still shows a tropical feature
in the Gulf next week. This probably will not impact SW Kansas weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

HRRR, NMM,ARW, and NAM were all in good agreement with low level
moisture increasing overnight north of a cold front which will be
moving from extreme southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and
the Panhandle of Texas. 5z surface observations were already
supporting this with increasing in MVFR and IFR conditions already
developing southwest Kansas. These low clouds will be slow to
erode early Thursday morning but ceilings are expected to improve
into the low VFR category Thursday afternoon. Widespread
convection is expected overnight as an upper level disturbance
lifts from northeast New Mexico into southwest Kansas. This area
of precipitation will begin to taper off from southwest to
northeast early this morning. Winds will be north to northeast at
around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  75  60  80 /  90  40  40  40
GCK  59  76  59  78 /  80  40  30  40
EHA  58  77  57  80 /  80  20  30  30
LBL  61  77  60  81 /  90  20  50  40
HYS  60  73  58  77 /  50  40  40  50
P28  67  82  64  84 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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