Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250513
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Much drier air has taken control across SW KS tonight, with
dewpoints down into the single digits at places. This has
resulted in a clear sky, with a weak pressure gradient delivering
weak winds. Strong radiational cooling over the dry ground will
allow temperatures to fall well below guidance through Sunday
morning, well down into the teens across the NW 1/2 of the CWA.

Sunday...Light winds and milder. A weak moisture-starved shortwave
will traverse SW KS during the daylight hours, producing a period
of broken/overcast mid/high clouds. Subsidence behind the
departing shortwave will arrive by sunset, with a rapidly
clearing sky. Despite the passage of the shortwave and the
associated clouds, temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer
than Saturday, in the lower to mid 50s. Pressure gradients will be
weak and nondescript, resulting in light and variable winds
generally less than 15 mph.

Sunday night/Monday morning...Clear, with lows ranging from mid
teens NW to mid 20s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The upper level flow becomes more southwesterly with time from
Sunday night into Monday, as another trough digs into the western
states and closes off into an upper low over southern California.
Surface pressure will be falling rapidly in the lee of the Rockies
on Monday, leading to an increasing pressure gradient across
western Kansas. Windy conditions are expected to develop during
the day. Lowering heights over the northern Plains into the
central Rockies will force a cold front southward into northwest
Kansas later Monday night. Current model solutions have the front
slowly advancing south across western Kansas on Tuesday.

By Tuesday night, the low over California opens up and heads east
toward the central and southern Plains. This will force the cold
front south through the remainder of western Kansas early Wednesday.
The medium range models are not overly optimistic, or in good
agreement, on precipitation over southwest Kansas. Will keep the
forecast dry for now but this may change as we get closer.

The remainder of the week appears to be dry with another storm
system possibly impacting the central Plains by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR will continue through this TAF forecast cycle, with a much
drier airmass in control. With a weak pressure gradient in place,
winds will be light (10 kts or less) and at times variable in
direction. A moisture-starved shortwave will bring a period of
broken/overcast mid/high clouds on Sunday, but nothing else.
Expect SKC to return to all airports around 00z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  20  53  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  17  52  20  62 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  20  48  22  63 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  21  53  20  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  19  52  23  62 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  57  24  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner


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