Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 111050
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
450 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2013
...Updated for the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
Looking at the h5 flow from the NAM, ECMWF and GFS models, western
Kansas will be under a west to northwest flow regime today and
tonight. At the surface, a cold front passed through to the south
early this morning, and high pressure was building in from the
north. Today will be considerably colder than yesterday. However,
I did bump up forecast highs for today by 1 or 2 degrees, especially
in the southern forecast areas near the Oklahoma border. All MOS
guidance pushed temps up, and we line up better with WFO neighbors
to the south. There will be plenty of sunshine today, and winds
will be northerly at 5 to 15 mph, bringing in some cold air.
Tonight will see the surface high slip off to the southeast, with
winds returning to the southerly direction, but not too strong.
Winds tonight should be in the 10 to 15 mph range. A few high
cirrus clouds will slip into the far west zones near the Colorado
border, but should not be thick enough to have an influence on
minimum temperatures. I did not change the forecast mins for
tonight, ranging from 12F-13F degrees in the Hays and Wakeeney areas
to 17F-18F degrees in the Elkhart and Liberal areas. A trough in
eastern Colorado will aid in keeping temperatures in southwest
sections near Morton County a little elevated tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
A wave will move across Kansas Friday, however the region will be on
the wrong side of the jet and in isentropic downglide/subsidence. Evolution
of deterministic runs over the last few nights supports this. Pops will
remain aob 14 percent. The rest of the forecast is northwesterly flow
aloft with a low level weak warm air advection pattern in place. Temperatures
will trend to near or above normal.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013
A surface high pressure ridge was moving east and will be over
eastern Kansas by tonight. A low pressure center and associated
lee side trough will form across eastern Colorado this afternoon.
A northwest flow aloft may drag some stratocumulus clouds into the
kGCK taf site this morning between 12 and 14z. High clouds will
advect over KDDC and KHYS site. By 14z, all sites should be VFR.
winds will start out northerly at 12 to 14 knots, and shift south
in the late afternoon at 7 to 9 knots.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 28 13 48 23 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 29 13 48 20 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 33 18 51 22 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 31 14 48 29 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 26 12 49 21 / 0 0 0 10
P28 28 14 50 24 / 0 0 0 10