Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Short term concern is convection potential for today. The WRF-ARW
and NMMB models shows late afternoon and evening convection
developing across the western counties and then spreading east and
weakening through the evening. Bulk shear supports organized
convection, however, instability is quite weak with dewpoints only
running in the lower to mid 40s by this afternoon. Think the main
threat is winds as models hint at line segment growth. Some hail
potential is there as well. 50-60 mph winds, and 1-2" hail would
be the threats. 2" hail would be pushing it. Tornado potential is
extremely low... low level directional shear is impressive,
however, again, with marginal dewpoints, LCL`s will be quite high
and forecast soundings show a mixed profile below this. Anyway, locations
that gets under a storm could see a couple of tenths of rain. It will,
of course, be spotty in nature, given the nature of the storms and
marginal BL moisture. Otherwise, highs today will peak around 60 NE
to the lower 70s SW. Friday morning lows will range from the upper
30s NW to mid 40s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Attention was spent mainly to the weekend. A strong trof approaches
the region from the SW. Considerable moisture advection is associated
with this feature and QPF from both the GFS and EC are impressive.
1-2" area wide is possible by the time the storm exits the forecast
district. A growing concern is if low level temperatures will be cold
enough for snow. Models are trending colder, particularly across the
western zones. Accumulating snowfall is not out of the question and
solid advisory amounts (2-5") possible. Will have to watch out near
the CO border, where warning amounts (6+") is indicated by some of
the more aggressive models. The ground is fairly warm. Something to
watch, but would not be surprised if a winter weather advisory was
needed at some point in the near future. Regardless of how this snow
pans out, the area will see beneficial precipitation. Otherwise, will
have to watch out for frost/freeze headlines Sunday morning. Those
areas that see the most accumulating snow could see colder temperatures
than currently forecast. Something to watch as there is high uncertainty
on the snowfall amounts and the related temperatures impacts down the
forecast road.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

VFR flight conditions are likely for much of the TAF pd. The exception
to this is at KDDC/KHYS towards the end of the TAF pd, where IFR conditions
will be possible in association with low clouds. KGCK/KLBL are expected
to remain VFR. Otherwise, the second concern is if showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon and evening. Will keep VCTS/CB groups for
KDDC/KGCK, as short term guidance is suggesting isolated activity in
this region by evening. Lastly, southerly winds will increase 15-25
kt by late morning into the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.


DDC  38  64  43  66 /   0  40  40  20
GCK  39  65  41  64 /   0  40  50  30
EHA  41  72  41  64 /   0  10  10  30
LBL  40  73  42  67 /   0  20  20  20
HYS  35  59  43  60 /   0  70  70  20
P28  39  64  47  69 /   0  50  50  10


Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031.



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.