Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER MESSY AVIATION PERIOD ANTICIPATED FOR THE DDC, GCK, AND
HYS TERMINALS. INITIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO MENTION AT DDC AND HYS BUT WILL
INCLUDE VICINITY STORMS AT GCK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  54  78  55 /  30  30  20  30
GCK  72  52  74  52 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  76  51  75  53 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  74  53  76  54 /  30  20  30  40
HYS  69  54  78  53 /  30  30  30  20
P28  72  59  81  58 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...AJOHNSON



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