Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162326
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
626 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Quite a difference in the models this afternoon concerning
possibilities for convection across south central Kansas.
The HRRR has really only been supported by the WRF-NMM and has
been consistent run after run today supporting a cluster of
thunderstorms initiating near the cold front-dryline intersection
in northwest OK, and moving quickly northeast over the areas of
Comanche Barber Pratt and Stafford counties between 4 and 7 pm.
There is about 30kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and and LHP value in
the lowest bin (still thinking half dollar or slighlty larger
size hail for max size), and possibility of locally severe wind
gusts. Several of the other CAM`s fail to produce convection
across our local counties. As the boundary spreads south later
tonight, low level stratiform clouds will redevelop and
overspread much of the area by early Sunday morning. The trend
of the low level cloudiness will be one of the forecast
challenges for Sunday temperatures, as winds remain light easterly
and upslope under a surface high pressure ridge. It could remain
cloudy all day over the entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Latest 12UTC GFS continues to show weak mid level differential
vorticity moving through the downstream flow Sunday night, which
may account for additional elevated showers and thunderstorms
through the region. Light and variable or even easterly winds
Monday should be replaced by south winds as another warm front
develops by Monday night. This will setup a hot downslope flow day
on Tuesday, where the GFSMOS has 95 degrees at DDC. Both the GFS
and EC meet this hot airmass with another cold front on Tuesday
night, which should easily knock temperatures back down into the
low 80s on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

VFR conditions give way to MVFR conditions Sunday morning around
10Z for all the airports. Light east winds leading to upslope
flow should keep the lower cloud ceilings in place for the rest
of the time period Sunday with a few pockets of light rainshowers.
VFR conditions could once again be possible by late in the time
period around 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  77  62  90 /  20  30  30  20
GCK  53  74  60  88 /  20  30  30  10
EHA  51  76  59  89 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  56  78  61  91 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  53  72  61  85 /  20  20  50  20
P28  64  79  65  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Tatro



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