Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
SO THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE MORNING WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AS THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SURFACE
BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERSIST. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS
STORMS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE ABSENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALBEIT SMALLER, WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGHING AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
RESULTING IN A COOLDOWN AND BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE 15Z-
21Z TIME FRAME. LEFT THE PROB30 IN THERE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS QUESTION IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IF MORNING
CONVECTION DISTURBS THIS TOO MUCH. LATER TAF ISSUANCE CAN ADJUST AS
COLD POOL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  65  89 /  10  40  40  20
GCK  70  87  65  89 /  20  40  40  20
EHA  69  93  65  89 /  30  40  40  30
LBL  71  92  66  89 /  20  40  40  30
HYS  69  83  64  88 /  20  40  40  20
P28  72  90  67  91 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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