Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311820
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES, AN H5 VORT MAXIMA IS PROJECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO PROVIDE MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AS THE H5 VORT MAXIMA KICKS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S(F), LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON RAISING H85
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEAR 25C OUT BY THE COLORADO BORDER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F)
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING CONVECTION EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB TEMPERATURES BY
00Z TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 16C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEAR 28C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. USING THIS AS A
GUIDE FOR HIGHS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM UPPER 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THE DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE ALSO SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS THIS MORNING REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXITING THE ROCKIES AND MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THESE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WHERE THE EDGE OF 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED. AS FOR MONDAY EVENING
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE ON THE MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE FOLLOWED THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LEVEL EACH DAY. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
WEEK AS THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET SHIFTED SOUTH WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PLACING THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH
ALSO. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH ANY
SUBTLE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAIN LATE WEEK THE CHANCE FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD. AREA MORE FAVORABLE WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  63  84 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  55  82  63  87 /  20   0  20  10
EHA  58  88  61  90 /  20   0  20  10
LBL  57  83  62  87 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  53  78  61  84 /  20  20  30  20
P28  55  80  62  84 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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