Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1131 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST INTO IOWA, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS ROTATING SOUTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AT THIS TIME. 00Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOW THE
AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z
AND THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREAS EAST OF A WAKEENEY TO NESS
CITY TO LARNED LINE SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT
THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND
AN INCH. AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS
OF A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES TOWARD CENTRAL
KANSAS MAY STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THAT
AREA ACCORDINGLY. THE SNOW RAIN/SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THIS
EVENING.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE HIGH WIND EVENT POTENTIAL FOR FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MIXING OUT UP TO NEARLY 750
MILLIBARS WITH 50 KNOTS WINDS INDICATED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS WE COULD SEE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
60 MPH IN THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. WITH THAT IN
MIND, HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY
HOURS BASED ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ENDING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE AROUND
AND WEST OF GARDEN CITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND THEN
INTENSIFY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES GIVES WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY, THEN
RISING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP. THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DRY, WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
ALBEIT SLOWER MOVING, WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE. MEANWHILE, COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S AT BEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE TEENS
BY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY SINCE OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS LIKELY BY DECEMBER 29-31ST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA, WITH
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC SURGE,
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS WILL FALL AT LEAST INTO THE 20S,
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
WINDS NNW SUBSIDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  23  41  26 / 100  40   0   0
GCK  35  18  42  23 / 100  20   0   0
EHA  36  19  45  23 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  37  19  44  24 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  34  21  40  25 /  80  50   0   0
P28  40  26  42  25 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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