Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212106
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN INVERTED TROUGH OF WARM MOIST ADVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LAYER
WILL INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
EXPAND ONCE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHRINKS DIURNALLY BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP, AND BE
VERY SHALLOW WITH THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG OR
FREEZING FOG. THE GFS MOS INDICATES VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 SM
WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS EVEN A QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
FORECAST AREAS OF FOG AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO
THE AREAL EXTENT AS WELL AS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT WITH
RESPECT HEADLINE ISSUANCE. MEANWHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. THE MODEL BLENDS
PRODUCE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 60S FROM LOCATIONS LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE, AND JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. A FEW BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD AREAS LIKE
MEDICINE LODGE, PRATT AND COLDWATER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS EARLY BEFORE THE MID
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STARTING WITH SATURDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.  THERE WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS, WITH LOWER LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE BARBER COUNTY AREA FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THERE STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL WARM UP ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PROGGED 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +10C TO
+12C ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.  THEN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS, BRINGING SOME LOWER TO MID CLOUDS WITH IT AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.  SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35
MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE WILL BE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE, AND MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE HAYS AND LARNED AREAS, AND INTO THE MID 50S DOWN
SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART, AS A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
A COOL DOWN, WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH
OF I-70; A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW FROM SCOTT CITY TO PRATT; AND A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKIN TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE.  ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
THANKSGIVING, BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND RATHER COLD.  MAX TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS
AREAS, THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F DEGREES FROM LAKIN TO GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S
DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  IN THE SNOW AREAS, ONLY
0.2 TO 0.3-INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARMEST ON
SUNDAY MORNING PRIOR TO THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN TAKE A PLUNGE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WEAK NORTHWARD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS HAS LED TO LOWERED LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRENDS FOR THE STRATUS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS HOWEVER SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION DEEPENS THE BL. BY LATE EVENING AND
THE OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR
WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO AROUND A HALF MILE AFTER 9Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  60  36  52 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  27  61  32  52 /   0   0  10  80
EHA  32  64  34  50 /   0   0  10  80
LBL  28  62  33  52 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  29  58  36  51 /   0  10  10  10
P28  35  60  43  55 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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