Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

...Updated Short Term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Ample insolation early this afternoon resulted in surface-based CAPE
in the 700-1100 J/kg west of Highway 283 to the Colorado border.
Lack of a capping inversion beneath cool temperatures in the
700-500mb layer (+2C at 700mb). There were two areas of surface
convergence that will support development of thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon. The first area is near the Colorado border along the
stationary trough axis, which is also near where the mid level
vorticity center is. We are also watching a secondary area of
interest from Dodge City south to the Oklahoma border where surface
wind convergence was slightly enhanced. 1km visible satellite
confirmed development of cumulus in both of these areas. Given the
higher degree of instability than earlier anticipated, a few hail
storms may occur with the largest hail most likely being around
1-inch in diameter (Quarter size). Severe weather threat will likely
wane after 00Z or so as showers and thunderstorms grow upscale. This
is what the HRRR would seem to suggest in its latest runs, which
makes sense given the marginal instability. Much of the
precipitation should be coming to an end/or exiting the southwest
Kansas region in the 04-07Z time frame so POPs will be lowered
during this time frame and shortly thereafter.

A northern stream shortwave trough will aid in bringing a cold front
south through western Nebraska late tonight, reaching southwestern
Kansas by mid to late morning Monday. The front is not expected to
have any impact on temperatures, though, so the going forecast of
upper 70s to near 80 still looks pretty good (especially along/south
of the Arkansas River).

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Models show the shortwave trough exiting the area on Monday, as
surface high pressure settles southward from the North Plains under
the advancing mid level ridge. This pattern will result breezy
northeast surface winds eventually veering southeast by Monday
night. The relative weak cold advection pattern should at least
limit the diurnal warming in the afternoon. Much warmer than normal
conditions are expected however by Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday as a dryline moves into the area with strong vertical
mixing potential. The upper wave pattern across the region suggest
very windy conditions on Wednesday well into the wind advisory
criteria range for the entire area, from southwest winds and first
and then with a cold front crashing through western Kansas as the
dynamic low moves through the Northern Plains. Additionally the
dryline should be the focus for deep moist convection development
in the late afternoon, with rapidly moving thunderstorms. Large
scale lift could prolong convective activity in the central Kansas
or even on a retreating dryline later into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The remainder of the week will probably bring flat
upper ridging across the high plains while another wave moves
onshore of the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

11-3.9 micron satellite and METAR imagery combination was showing
VFR altostratus across the area. Southerly winds will increase
eventually be taken over by north winds late in the day as the
surface low develops and shifts eastward. Isentropic lift will aid
in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms by late day,
mainly in the IFR/MVFR category.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  77  45  79 /  50  10   0  10
GCK  51  76  43  82 /  50   0   0  10
EHA  49  76  46  83 /  20  10   0  10
LBL  51  78  46  83 /  50   0   0  10
HYS  56  77  43  79 /  60  10   0  10
P28  56  77  47  79 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






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