Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 031956
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014
...Updated for the long term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).
The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014
This extended period will be dominated by a two different upper
level troughs passing through, one on Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and the other one on Friday night and Saturday.
In the nearer term, Tuesday night should be cold with lows in the
mid 20s in the Hays and LaCrosse areas, ranging to the mid 30s down
down in our southwest corner near Elkhart. I think the front will
be in the I-70 corridor about midnight, with some overrunning
precipitation beginning by midnight, in the form of snow and/or
sleet. Forecast sounding from nearly every model shows a warm
tongue aloft, for the early part of the event. The front will
spill southward through Southwestern and South Central Kansas on
Wednesday, and most of the rest of our forecast area will see some
snow/sleet early Wednesday, changing over to rain by late morning.
The dynamics will be stronger to our north, so 20 to 30 percent
precipitation chances will suffice for us. Only light QPF amounts
are expected, generally less than 0.03 inch liquid, and perhaps up
to a half inch of snow in any particular location. Wednesday`s
high temperatures Will range from 39F in Hays to 52F in Johnson
Wednesday night through Friday will see some warming, with the
coolest highs across any accumulation of snow. Wednesday night
minimum temperatures will still be similar to mins Wednesday
morning, in the mid 20s to lower 30s. There will be a quick warm
up Thursday with southwest surface winds. Maximum temperatures in
the southwest corner near Ulysses and Elkhart will rise into the
lower to middle 60s, while the east sections from Ellis to
Comanche Counties will only top out in the lower to middle 50s.
There will be some advance clouds moving in Friday, which will knock
down maximum temperatures Friday into the upper 40s north of I-70,
ranging to near 60F down south along the Oklahoma border. As an
upper wave moves into the plains Friday night, a cold front will
dive southeast from Wyoming. This will bring another round of
snow or rain to Southwest Kansas Friday Night and Saturday. I did
lower some of the 50% Pops from the AllBlend model to 30 and 40
percent, to better match our neighbor`s grids. Friday night will
see a cool down in low temperatures, dropping to the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Saturday should be significantly colder, with the
clouds and precipitation around. Highs should only reach the
middle 40s to near 50F on Saturday.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and considerably warmer, with max temps in
the upper 50s near Larned and the middle 60s in the Syracuse area.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer with max temps in the middle
60s across the forecast area. Minimum temperatures both Saturday
and Sunday mornings will average in the 25F to 30F degree range.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014
VFR conditions through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no
major flight category reductions. Southerly winds 8-12 kt today becoming
southwesterly 6-11 kt overnight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 11 45 27 44 / 0 0 10 30
GCK 13 52 28 46 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 23 60 33 52 / 0 0 10 20
LBL 15 52 30 50 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 10 45 25 39 / 0 0 20 40
P28 11 40 25 42 / 0 0 10 30