Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070440
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1040 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Look quick...DDC radar actually shows precipitation reflectivity
echoes as of 620 pm, with scattered light snow showers moving
quickly SE across mainly Trego and Ellis counties. These are
moving quite quickly, and will amount to little, but have noticed
reduced visibility at stations further north as the snow showers
passed. These are in association with the leading edge of the
arctic air reinforcement. Strong cold advection is expected all
night, but the snow showers/flurries will wane by midevening.
Increased weather grids to mention the light snow, but did not
include QPF/snow amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A large trough over the northern plains will continue to sink
southward into southwest Kansas tonight. A mid level cloud deck
looks to move in through the evening and early overnight hours in
association with a shortwave and a backdoor cold front. There
looks to be very little moisture for these features to work with
there could certainly be a brief period of mostly cloudy skies.

By sunrise Thursday, the coldest of the air from the arctic
should be in southwest Kansas. Went on the colder side for
overnight lows as the winds should die down combining with the dry
ground and 850 temps falling to around -10(C). Depending on when
the cloud deck erodes completely and the driest of the air moves
in overnight lows could fall into the low 10s but kept it at the
mid 10s at this point.

Thursday afternoon the cold air mass looks to hang around
southwest Kansas through the day leading to below normal
temperatures for the area. Sunshine should be prevalent through
the region as an area of high pressure moves in from Nebraska. As
the high moves eastward through the day winds looks to pick back
up especially for areas near the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A very amplified pattern in the upper levels will be the big story
throughout the long term. There will be a Hudson Bay low staying
fairly stationary in eastern Canada with a large upper level ridge
over the western half of the US. The other story will be the
continued dry weather pattern with no real chance of any
precipitation through the time period.

Friday looks to be another elevated fire risk day with winds
picking up out of the northwest 25-35 mph and relative humidities
falling to 15-20%

Sunday will be a day of milder temperatures with a downslope west
wind and sunny skies.

Much of next week looks like an up and down trend with
temperatures as much of western Kansas will be right along the
border of the polar jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions will prevail this morning with decreasing high
level cloudiness. Winds will start out from the north this morning
shifting to the northwest by this afternoon. A few places may also
gust to around 20 knots this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  35  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  16  37  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  16  38  25  55 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  17  38  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  14  33  22  50 /  20   0  10   0
P28  18  36  18  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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