Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250631
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY REPEATED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS BUT A
TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR TYPE STRUCTURES IS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. ALSO, UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WERE WEAK, YIELDING VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. SO DESPITE
THE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES, HAIL ONLY AS LARGE AS HALF
DOLLARS IS EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELKHART TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, WITH MAINLY 60S IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR, THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER IN THE ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A SMALLER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROJECTED
TO BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THIS TIME FRAME, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 10C. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED WITH
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND CAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 1000 J/KG.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE GCK AND HYS
TERMINALS WHILE A COUPLE MORE HOURS WILL EXIST FOR DDC. OTHERWISE,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES ARE IMPROVING BEHIND THE CONVECTION
WITH MVFR VALUES ANTICIPATED. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AS NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  78  57 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  77  52  77  55 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  77  53  78  54 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  79  54  79  57 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  77  53  79  56 /  30  30  10  20
P28  84  58  77  60 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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