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384
FXUS63 KDDC 221108
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A dry period can be expected across western Kansas today and tonight
as a weak northwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains
while a westerly downslope flow near the surface further augments a
dry air mass across the Western High Plains. Temperatures will rebound
slightly today as a developing lee side trough across eastern Colorado
and surface high pressure moving southeast across north Texas help
create a west to southwest downslope flow across western Kansas late
in the day. Under mostly sunny skies, this will allow highs to push
the lower 70s(F) late this afternoon. Look for lows down into the
40s(F) tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Yet another cold front will push through western Kansas early Monday
bringing with it another surge of drier air into the high plains.
Regardless of an intensification of a northwest flow aloft, the
lack of moisture/instability will keep precip chances out of
western Kansas through at least Wednesday, particularly as a low
level west-northwest flow persists through much of the period.
Fairly seasonal temperatures will continue Monday even as a cold
front pushes through western Kansas during the day. The timing is
such that highs are still expected to reach well up into the 60s(F)
across west central Kansas to the lower/mid 70s(F) in south central
Kansas Monday afternoon. Cooler air will filter southward into western
Kansas through Tuesday dropping highs to the 60s(F) while a quick
redevelopment of lee side troughing will help bounce highs back
up Wednesday as a west to southwest flow takes hold across western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Light, mainly northwest winds, early this morning will back to
the south southwest late day and increase to around 10 knots as an
area of high pressure crosses western Kansas and surface
pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. Overnight a
surface cold front will drop south into southwest Kansas towards
daybreak. As this frontal boundary passes the southerly winds will
shift to the northwest. Wind speeds overnight are expected to be
mainly in the 10 to 15 knot range. The stronger winds, near 15
knots, will occur behind the cold front early Monday morning.
Latest models soundings indicating VFR conditions today and
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  45  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  45  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  43  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  46  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  45  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-
043>045-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert