Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261955
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND EXTEND IT INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THIS SHORT
TERM PERIOD. BY LATER TONIGHT, THE NAM SUPPORTS NEAR 20:1 SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS AN INITIAL WEAK
WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, OVER THE INCREASINGLY COLD AIR DOME, A ZONE OF
WEAK SURFACE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACHES FOR QPF EASILY PRODUCE AN INCH AND HALF TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LIKE STANTON, MORTON AND
STEVENS. HOWEVER MODELS LIKE THE NAM ARE EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL. POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS
FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS APPEAR HIGH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS. COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A BROAD AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, AFTER PROBABLY NOT EXCEEDING THE LOW 20S ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE ISENTROPIC LEVELS FROM I288 TO I308 FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE IMPROVING FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE 06Z SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THE
PREVIOUS GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONSET AND TRACK OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR ON TIMING. DID
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BASED
TRACK OF A 400MB PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE I288 TO I308 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION GOING, HOWEVER THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF
STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z
SUNDAY AS 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IMPROVES. AT THIS TIME THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN 06Z
SUNDAY AND 18Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
WHERE THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO NEAR 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO FALL. BASED ON THIS WARMING
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH
OF DODGE CITY. AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
NORTH OF DODGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS WARMING SO WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WARMING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER GIVEN THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
AND LIGHT SNOW AT KDDC AND KGCK BY 09-12Z, INTO 18Z. NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10-15KT GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY BY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   8  21  13  26 /  30  30  60  70
GCK   9  20  11  26 /  60  60  60  60
EHA  10  18  12  29 /  80  80  50  30
LBL  10  19  13  26 /  70  70  50  50
HYS   7  21  14  26 /  10  10  60  70
P28  10  22  16  28 /  10  20  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ061>063-074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE


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