Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282255
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST RIGHT NOW AS WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AS LEE
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW WAS OVER NEVADA TODAY, AND SHOWED REAL NO SIGNS OF
MOVING AT ALL. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BE IDENTIFIED ROTATING
NORTH THROUGH UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. THERE
HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS, WHICH LED TO A FIELD OF CUMULUS. BY MID AFTERNOON, THE
CUMULUS FIELD WAS THICKEST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY DOWN INTO
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE CU
FIELD WAS BENEATH A VERY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT DEEP TROPOSPHERE WITH
A 500-700MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK OFF TO AROUND 6 TO 9 KNOTS TOWARD CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A RESULT, AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S. WE LOWERED THE
GOING HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AROUND, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AS FAR AS MONDAY GOES, PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED, EXCEPT FOR
THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL GYRE WILL BE JUST A BIT CLOSER TO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE WARM CONVEYER BELT FLOW STREAM AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL GET CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY, AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF ACROSS EVEN FAR WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, SO WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WHILE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES, AGAIN IS NOT A CERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE ONSET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST NAM/WRF/ARW
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING RUNS HAVE INDICATED A LATER START TO BROKEN QLCS
TYPE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT AND COULD BE JUST
LATE ENOUGH FOR DECENT STABILIZATION  OF THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY
LAYER. 0-3 UTC TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED TIMING AND WE`VE
USED SOMETHING VERY CLOSE TO THE NAM POPS GIVEN A WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE LINE IS NOT GUARANTEED. THIS MAKES PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GENERALLY 50-70 PERCENT.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION COULD HELP DEVELOP MORE STORMS, EVEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE ALONG THE SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE WHICH MIGHT BE
TRAILING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO THE PANHANDLES, UNLESS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FASTER OR SLOWER. ADDITIONALLY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED  WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH COULD HELP PRODUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
EFFECTIVELY REDUCING INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CHANGING
THE FLOW TO MORE OF A SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST DIRECTIONAL REGIME.
THURSDAY COULD POTENTIAL  BE WINDY BEHIND THE 850 MB FRONT IF DECENT
MIXING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK THROUGH THE UPPER 70S INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THROGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
SLACKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER RESUME THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ONCE DIURNAL HEATING RESUMES AND BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH OCCURS MONDAY
MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH 5000+ FT CUMULUS TOMORROW COULD GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTOMRS IN THE MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  84  61  83 /   0   0  70  70
GCK  60  83  58  81 /   0  10  60  50
EHA  60  82  57  80 /   0  20  40  20
LBL  60  84  60  83 /   0  10  70  60
HYS  60  84  62  81 /   0  10  60  50
P28  61  87  62  84 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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