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000
FXUS63 KDDC 261716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1116 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AT 12Z MONDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. FURTHER EAST AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
60 TO 140 METER 500MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT RISES WERE OBSERVED FROM
DENVER TO TOPEKA AND SPRINGFIELD. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z MONDAY
WERE +4 AT TOPEKA, +10 AT DODGE CITY, +11C AT NORTH PLATTE, AND
+12C AT AMARILLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING
WARMER AIR IN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY WARMED BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AT
DODGE CITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER BOTTOMING OUT AT 30
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ADDITIONAL MECHANICAL MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
HAD A COOL BIAS THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS SO I HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AGAIN
TONIGHT GIVEN THE WARMER AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL STILL
REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY, WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND THEN 20S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA BY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OWING TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER APPRECIABLE
QUANTITIES OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM. COLDER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED
BY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES, WITHS HIGHS AND LOWS FALLING BACK TO BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNSET AND
THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY MID DAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BASED ON 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WILL
HELP PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH OR
SO WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  36  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  34  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  35  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  35  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD