Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours at least as the
850 moisture transport was in a favorable setup to keep the MCS
moving across the area during the overnight hours. The Convective
allowing models show some semblance of an MCV lasting through the
mid morning hours. Then the next issue will be to figure just how
much of an effect the outflow boundary and previous rainfall will
have on lowering highs for this afternoon compared to yesterday.
The NAM 4km/NMM are consistent on redeveloping convection in the
panhandles later this evening once again, with any activity
farther north remaining mainly isolated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

No significant changes to the extended period, as main focus was
on active weather. Temperatures continue to be expected around
climatological highs and lows. Upper flow transitions slowly from
broad weak westerly to more NW by end of week with opportunities
for nw flow impulses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Lingering stratocumulus will diminish to scattered cumulus this
afternoon. VFR with surface winds maintaining an easterly
component this afternoon near 10 kts. Atmosphere has been strongly
stablized by last night`s convection. As such, no thunderstorms
mentioned in the 18z TAFs. SKC prevails overnight. NAM model
suggests some areas of fog are possible across SW KS after 09z.
With a clear sky and recent widespread rainfall, some radiation
fog seems reasonable. Will only include VCFG for now with not the
greatest confidence. After 15z Tue, SE winds near 10 kts at all
TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  69  92  70 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  90  68  92  68 /  10  20  10  20
EHA  93  68  92  67 /  20  20  10  30
LBL  93  69  91  69 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  89  69  92  70 /  30  20  10  20
P28  93  72  93  72 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner


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