Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Models remain consistent with previous runs in weakening an upper
level ridge axis tonight and Thursday as an upper level trough,
located near the four corners region at 12z Wednesday, moves
across the central Rockies. As this system approaches the Central
High Plains tonight the surface trough of low pressure will deepen
near the Colorado border and mid to high level moisture will start
to increase from the west. Given the increasing the clouds and
expected wind speeds overnight will keep overnight lows around 70.

On Thursday the upper level trough will begin to move out into
the Central High Plains as a surface cold front and surface lee
trough moves into western Kansas. By the early afternoon scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along these boundaries with these
storms increasing in coverage through late day as the upper level
disturbance approaches western Kansas. Given the 0-6km shear and
mid level instability late Thursday afternoon there will be a
chance for a few of these storms late Thursday to be strong or
marginally severe. Main hazard late today and early this evening
will be small hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Prior to the
precipitation and ahead of the cold front 850mb temperatures at
00z Friday continues to suggest another warm day across much of
southwest Kansas. Highs in the 90s still look reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

On Thursday night the cold front will move across southwest Kansas
as the upper level trough slowly crosses the Central High Plains.
These thunderstorms will spread east/southeast during the
overnight hours as the upper wave crosses western Kansas. At this
time the better chances for convection overnight will be between
9pm and 3 am based on the timing of the upper level trough
overnight, along with the mid level forcing, and the location of
the surface cold front overnight. Brief periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with some of these
storms Thursday night, mainly north of a Pratt to Dodge City to
Garden City line. Will therefore focus the better chances for
convection across north central Kansas during the overnight hours.

Any lingering precipitation in south central Kansas early Friday
morning will end as the upper level trough continues to move
across central and eastern Kansas. Cooler air will also begin to
filter into western Kansas early in the day as the surface cold
front moves into Oklahoma. Based on the cooling trend forecast in
the 900mb to 850mb level the highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
on Friday.

As the upper level trough continues to move east into the mid
Mississippi Valley early this weekend an upper level ridge axis
will develop and move east into the Rockies. This upper level
ridge axis will continue to shift east into the Western High
Plains over the weekend and early next week, and a northwesterly
down slope flow is expected to improve. A slow warming trend is
expected across western Kansas over the weekend into early next
week as the down slope flow improves so will stay close to the
warming trend from the latest CRExtendedFcst_Init through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Cigs should be primarily vfr through the tad period. The will be high
level clouds through the overnight and into tomorrow. Will use a prob30
for convection for night. Winds will be southerly then veer SSW 10-20
kt through much of tomorrow, and back southerly by evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  95  65  88 /  10  30  50  10
GCK  70  94  64  88 /  10  40  40  10
EHA  69  92  64  88 /  10  40  40  10
LBL  70  95  65  90 /  10  40  50  10
HYS  70  95  65  86 /  10  40  50  10
P28  70  96  69  89 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden



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