Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/Td separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the KS/CO
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Thursday Night/Friday:

There could be some isolated storms Thursday evening across the region
as indicated by WRF-ARW/NMM and the 4 km NAM. Coverage will be sparse
with weak forcing present. Overnight minimums will be in the 60s and
70s.

Convection will be possible again Friday afternoon and evening along
a boundary. Chances increase by evening as low level warm air advection
increases along and over the boundary providing better lift for convection.
Increased to low chance pops for the western zones, given the good agreement
in global models WRT convective and frontal placement. Sided with the
EC for maximum temperatures will still shows our area firmly in the
warm sector with downslope southwesterly 850-hPa winds. Values should
be in the upper 90s to near 100F.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday will continue to be another hot day with low chances for thunderstorms
across the northern zones in association with weak low level convergence.
Highs could be be a few degrees lower with more cloud cover around than
compared to Friday.

Beyond Saturday, an upper level trough will continue to move from the
Northern Rockies and eventually out across the Northern Plains. This
will usher in the passage of front by Sunday. The good news is that
the warm sector will be displaced to the SE with the warmest 850-hPa
temperatures located over SE Kansas and Oklahoma. We will see dropping
temperatures and a continued chance for thunderstorms. The associated
front will linger somewhere across the Plains and temperatures will
be tricky, depending on where the front lies. Temps look to be near
to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with a few high clouds
across the HYS terminal. A trough of low pressure will intensify
across far western Kansas bringing southerly winds around 11 knots to
the TAF sites. Sustained winds increase to around 15 knots by late
morning with gusts at 20 to 25 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  73 100  70 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  97  71  99  68 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  96  70  97  68 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  99  72 100  70 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  99  73 100  71 /  20  20  20  30
P28  99  76 100  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






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