Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180834
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...updated short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12Z ECMWF indicates dewpoints
around 60F advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 J/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hPa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the EC model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn`t look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface upslope and radiational cooling have lead to expansion
of stratus northward across the panhandles into the GCK and DDC
terminal vicinity. This stratus should remain at or above the MVFR
category based on current METAR observations and local GFSMOS
guidance. Southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty as
diurnal mixing develops Friday morning after 15 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Minimum relative humidities will fall to between 20 and 30 percent
this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 70s with dew points in
the 30s. The surface pressure gradient will result in south surface
winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. The combination will lead to
elevated fire danger conditions, while remaining well below red flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  52  79  55 /   0   0  30  50
GCK  74  52  79  53 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  76  53  77  51 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  76  52  79  52 /   0   0  30  40
HYS  73  52  81  55 /   0   0  50  60
P28  72  53  81  56 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell






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