Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Much more tranquil weather will prevail tonight and Tuesday in the
wake of the winter storm. The visible satellite was revealing the
snow cover areas where clouds have cleared, with the main snow cover
across Trego and Ellis County as well as western and northern
Hamilton County. Thus, we do not expect any impacts on temperatures
across much of west central and southwest KS. A continuation of
northwest winds is expected through the period, with a substantial
drop off in speed after sunset. Another very minor shortwave trough
across western Montana will move southeast in the wake of the main
winter storm, but this feature will have no bearing on sensible
weather, other than helping enhance the downslope momentum a bit on
Tuesday. We should see temperatures top out in the upper 40s to
around 50 on average across the area, with lower 40s farther north
along I-70 and 52-54F in the Red Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Above to well-above normal temperatures are forecast through much of
the Long Term period, especially Thursday and potentially Friday
ahead of the next larger scale trough. Enhanced lee trough
development is expected ahead of this trough, leading to stronger
south winds. We have increased winds a little bit above the
SuperBlend guidance, and further increase in speeds may be necessary
in subsequent updates. Temperatures will warm well into the 60s
amidst fairly strong southwest flow aloft across the Rockies in
advance of the aforementioned system.

This storm system coming across the Rockies Thursday will not be a
precipitation producer for western Kansas because it is too zonal in
nature, too far north, and rather quick moving. The timing of the
trough passage Friday will determine timing of the next cold front,
and thus impacts on how warm the region will get. Any slow down of
the front will allow temperatures to reach well into the 60s for a
larger portion of southwest KS, but for now, we expect the front to
move southeast around midday with a plateau in temperatures in the
afternoon. The airmass behind the Friday front will not be all that
cold, given downslope momentum in its wake and the zonal nature of
the system. The whole hemispheric regime will be fairly zonal in
nature, helping keep arctic air locked up across the far Northern
Plains and Canadian Prairies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 558 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Weak surface high pressure will build into western Kansas during
the TAF period resulting in decreasing winds. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  20  50  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  18  46  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  21  50  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  20  51  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  19  42  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  52  23  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch


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