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009
FXUS63 KDDC 241726
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to regenerate across the
eastern zones (east of Dodge City) through this afternoon.
CAPE/shear are quite healthy near Medicine Lodge early this
afternoon (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40 kts)
so some strong to locally severe storms are probable in/near the
SE counties through sunset. Any convection through this evening
will strongly favor the eastern CWA as drier air works into the
western zones. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off
across the SE counties overnight. A strong cold front is expected
to race through SW KS tonight, reaching the northern zones around
3 AM, and clearing Medicine Lodge by 7 AM. Pressure gradient
behind the cold front will support strong north winds, gusting
30-40 mph late tonight through Sunday morning. Lows Sunday morning
will range from the upper 40s at Syracuse/Hamilton county to the
lower 60s at Kiowa/Barber county.

Sunday...Refreshing. 1032 mb surface high in Wyoming at sunrise
Sunday will build SE, with the surface ridge axis building into
NW KS during the evening. North winds will be strong and gusty for
a few hours Sunday morning, and then quickly diminish as pressure
gradients relax in the afternoon. All zones dry by 1 pm, with
clouds eroding from north to south. Highs only in the lower 70s,
near room temperature, and actually several degrees below normal
for a change.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

For Sunday and Monday, the main upper trough moves into the upper
Great Lakes with a cutoff low across the Desert Southwest. Rain and
thunder will be ending in parts of south central Kansas, east and
southeast of Dodge City on Sunday, then some clearing skies and
northwest winds on Monday.

For the period of of Monday into next Friday, with upper level
ridging dominating the Plains, expect no rainfall, except for late
Thursday into Friday with a weak southern branch upper wave.

Highs will be only in the 70s for Sunday into Tuesday, the slowly
warm back into the low to mid 80s into Friday. Lows will be in the

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR will prevail through Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to
remain primarily east of the TAF sites this afternoon.
Redevelopment is expected after 19z, east of a LBL-DDC-HYS line.
Close enough to include a VCTS mention for the DDC/HYS TAFs for a
few hours this afternoon. South winds this afternoon will become
light and variable for a time this evening. A strong cold front is
scheduled to arrive around 09z Sun, producing north winds gusting
30-35 kts. North winds will remain strong and gusty Sunday
morning, then diminish Sunday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  73  45 /  50  30  10   0
GCK  82  54  72  42 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  81  52  70  45 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  83  57  72  45 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  80  54  71  45 /  30  30   0   0
P28  84  62  73  49 /  70  70  30  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner