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000
FXUS63 KDDC 080950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

...Updated Synopsis along with Short and Long term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Water vapor imagery from this early morning, indicates a small
closed mid level circulation pushing across the Central Plains as a
broad cyclonic flow prevails over the eastern half of the country.
An area of midlevel deformation and resultant frontogenesis is
producing a band of light to occasionally moderate snow over western
KS although snow accumulations are still generally under an inch.
Upstream from this wave, a ridge along the west coast is beginning
to build eastward into the Intermountain West. Closer to the ground,
a strong cold front stretching from the Great Lakes into western TX,
continues to surge southward although without a true tap on Arctic
air via temperatures staying mostly in the 20s across western KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

An active weather pattern early this morning, will turn extremely
quiet by afternoon today as the aforementioned closed 700-500 hPa
circulation moves southeast into OK.  Initially for the remainder of
tonight through mid morning, a 700-600 hPa band of deformation and
resultant frontogenesis will slip slowly southeast across western KS
before becoming diffuse in response to the wave shifting southeast
as well.  Ascent from this frontogenesis will continue to bring
light to moderate snowfall to locations mainly west of a Larned to
Dodge City to Liberal line through the early morning.  Although
snowfall rates have been on the lighter side with most locations
reporting greater than a mile in visibility, some locations may
still see 1-2 inches of snow before this band dissolves by 15 UTC.
Further, although snow accumulations will likely be below advisory
thresholds, will let current advisory run its course for these areas
through 14 UTC expiration.

The situation for locations east of Larned to Liberal is less
clear as the band of frontogenesis mentioned above will not make
it very far into this region before dissolving. Models hint at a
secondary area of deformation and frontogenesis forming on the
back side of the 700 hPa circulation over south central KS by
12-15 UTC with light snowfall resulting. However this may only
clip Barber, Pratt, and Comanche counties through the morning with
little if any threat of precipitation between these two areas.
For now will keep the Winter Wx Advisory for these areas in effect
until 18 UTC, but will lower expected snow accumulations to an
inch or less. Either way, the low shifts far enough southeast by
early afternoon to shutdown precipitation and permit clearing over
most of western and central KS. Given the lack of Arctic air with
this system, temperatures should rebound quickly under good solar
insolation with highs varying from the upper 30s near Pratt, to
the lower 50s near Scott City.

A benign evening to overnight will prevail across the Central High
Plains as subsidence on the back side of the midlevel trough axis
dominates. This will allow surface high pressure to ridge into the
area with light winds and a clear sky permitting temperatures to
drop back into the mid 20s for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Much of the focus on the Long Term was spent on the Tuesday-Tuesday
Night forecast since this is when the next potentially impactful
weather system will affect our area. Up until then, Sunday and
Monday look to be very pleasant with a marked warm-up forecast.
Western Kansas will find itself in between a split flow upper
tropospheric jet pattern Monday and Tuesday, which spells a lot of
subsidence and sunshine. While a few high clouds will likely span
the skies these two days, it should be largely clear/sunny.
Widespread 71 to 74F highs are likely on Monday, and the lack of a
pressure gradient in the lower troposphere will result in light
winds.

As we head into Tuesday, though, things will begin to change
with an intense cold front pushing south sometime during the latter
half of the day. While we did not change the high temperature
forecast much for Tuesday, we did change the late-day temperatures
as we expect a fairly substantial drop in temperatures especially
late in the afternoon toward early evening...with fairly rapidly
falling temperatures down into the 30s by as early as 00Z Wednesday.
We followed closely the ECMWF regarding this, as it tends to handle
the density gradient and isallobaric flow better than the GFS model.
We also ramped up the winds to around 30 mph sustained by late
afternoon/evening. With the ECMWF showing 50+ knot north winds in
the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, it certainly looks like advisory
level winds will be a solid bet. The huge question we still have,
however, is precipitation amounts. The ECMWF model is still most
aggressive in holding into some mid level potential vorticity
advection in the mid levels to foster lower-mid tropospheric
development (surface to 700mb). It shows a much more favorable
scenario for deformation snows on the backside of the 850-surface
low Tuesday Night versus the much less developed (or not even
developed at all) deterministic GFS model. The official forecast for
Tuesday Night will continue to call for 30 percent chance of snow
for the entire forecast area Tuesday Night (perhaps a rain/snow mix
early on across far south-central Kansas).

By Wednesday, whatever is left of this system will be exiting the
region quickly with sunshine returning and temperatures rebounding
a bit back into the upper 40s to near 50. The end of the week
looks quiet as well with much of the split jet stream energy
focused on the eastern half of the CONUS. Afternoon temperatures
Thursday and Friday of next week should warm back to the upper
50s/lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A fast moving upper disturbance will slide east across the Central
Plains tonight into early on Saturday. This system will bring a
band of light snow along with IFR ceilings and visibilities during
the overnight hours. However, this system will push quickly east
after sunrise this morning with conditions turning dry and ceilings
becoming unlimited by early afternoon for the DDC, GCK, and HYS
terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  26  64  37 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  45  25  66  35 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  44  30  65  39 /  60   0   0   0
LBL  44  25  64  35 /  60   0   0   0
HYS  47  24  67  38 /  60   0   0   0
P28  38  23  62  35 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ065-066-
079>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJohnson
SHORT TERM...AJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...AJohnson