Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191112
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Forecast for today looks on-target with persistence a pretty good
forecast method for today. Highs of 101 at DDC and 103 at HYS
yesterday, and the low level thermodynamic profiles look essentially
identical for today. The only change over yesterday is that dewpoints
will mix out over a larger area, with even mixing up into Ellis
County. This shift inherited a heat advisory for 4 counties (Trego,
Ellis, Rush, Stafford for 105 maximum Heat Index), but latest
ApparentT forecast grids keeps these counties in the 100-102F range,
except far northeastern Ellis. Instead of canning the whole
advisory, we plan to keep Ellis going, which should still match okay
with GLD, GID and ICT. It`s essentially just cutting back the
southwest edge of the larger-scale heat headline on the big picture
across NWS Central Region. The heat advisory headline topic may be
revisited in future shifts, especially Thursday-Saturday, as heat
index these days in the eastern third of the forecast area will
likely top out 103-104 and criteria of 105F is loosened some given
multiple days in a row of 100-105F. Nevertheless, whether the heat
index is 100 or 105 during the afternoon, the same precautions
should be taken to beat the heat whether an official Heat Advisory
headline is issued for your county or not.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

The Short Term section touched on the heat topic a bit for the end
of the week. The large scale pattern will remain largely unchanged
through Saturday, and high temperatures through Saturday will be
similar as yesterday and today. The drier air and continued south
winds of 10-20 mph each afternoon will offer some evaporative
cooling potential, thus heat index will likely be at or a degree
below the actual temperature, especially in the western half of
the forecast area. Global models continue to hint at a front
coming down Sunday, which should end this heat wave and also
increase our thunderstorm potential. There are still some
uncertainties regarding how strong this front will be and if it
will really fully push through southwest Kansas before dissolving.
Early reads from the global models are that this break in the
heat may just be temporary, with 100-degree temps trying to build
back in around this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through tonight. Southerly
winds 5 to 10kt will increase 15 to 25kt late this morning as a lee
side trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  73 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
GCK 100  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  99  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL 100  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28 102  74 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson



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