Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190941
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
341 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Surface high pressure over the plains will give way to surface
troughing as the mid to upper level flow becomes more zonal
across the Rockies. This will result in southerly winds and warmer
temperatures. Highs are expected to be in around 60 or the lower
60s today. Given the very dry ground due to a lack of recent
precipitation, afternoon temperatures in sunny regimes will tend
to be warmer than most of the computer generated guidance.
Temperatures will fall back into the upper 20s and lower 30s
tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Upper level troughing will continue over the Great Lakes and
eastern United States for the next week week, with upper level
ridging over the West. By November 27 there will be a shift in
this pattern, with upper level troughing developing across the
western United States. Dry weather will persist for the next week
across western Kansas with occasional shortwave troughs and
associated cold fronts passing from Canada into the northern
plains and upper Midwest. One front will pass through Tuesday
morning and another by Saturday. Warmer weather is expected
Sunday and Monday ahead of one next front before a cooldown
by Tuesday. Warmer weather can again be expected Wednesday
through Friday ahead of the next cold front Saturday. Although the
upper level trough developing in the west by November 27th
represents a pattern change, it is unclear whether the amplitude,
speed (must be slow moving) and latitude (must move south of
Kansas) of the trough will be favorable for precipitation across
western Kansas. Since western Kansas is located in the rain shadow
of the Rockies, it takes a special pattern to get large amounts
of precipitation this far west in the cold season. Most weather
systems pass through dry. Locations about 700 hundred miles east
of here get about 4 times more precipiation in the cold season.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Surface high pressure will give way to a surface trough in the lee
of the Rockies. This will result in light winds becoming southwest
to southerly. VFR conditions will persist.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  32  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  28  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  32  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  31  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
P28  60  33  65  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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