Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070824
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. OVER WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE I328
TO I332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW
THE FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HOWEVER ARE
NOT AS EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL AS WHAT THEY ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW, IMPROVING MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO LATE MAY GIVE RISE TO
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SO WILL BE SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON LOCATION OF A WEST
TO EAST MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 12Z THURSDAY AND WHERE THE
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. WILL THEREFORE FOCUS THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THESE LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE UPPER
LOW, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z TUESDAY, IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEEK WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF RAINFALL FOR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS LATE WEEK WILL KEEP AT LEAST
HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPERING
PRECIPITATION OFF AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES LATE FRIDAY.

ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  57  80  64 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  78  56  81  64 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  77  56  85  65 /  10  10  30  50
LBL  75  57  83  65 /  20  10  20  50
HYS  77  56  80  63 /  10  10  10  60
P28  74  60  78  65 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT


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