Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261921
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
221 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

As of 2 pm surface observations placed a cold front near Hays and
Dodge City. Convection was already developing ahead of this front
early this afternoon. All the models were doing a good job on where
the ongoing convection was occurring and they also keep this area
of convection late today and early this evening ahead of the cold
front and mainly in south central Kansas. Severe weather
potential late today and early tonight not looking very good at
this time given weak 0-6km shear but a few of the stronger storms
may be capable of producing some isolated strong gusty winds along
with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Given the low to mid
level moisture forecast to be spreading into southwest Kansas
overnight there will be a chance for status and possibly even some
areas of fog but the prevailing wind direction does not appear to
be favorable for dense fog but later shift may need to monitor
this. There will also be a chance for another round of convection
overnight as an upper level disturbance crosses southeast
Colorado.

On Thursday confidence is low on when/if clouds will erode across
western Kansas and this will be important on how warm
temperatures will get during the afternoon. Given the low
confidence on the expected afternoon cloud cover will stay close
to the latest guidance which kept highs mainly in the 80 to 85
degree range where clouds are expected to linger throughout the
day. Some morning precipitation is expected to taper off during
the afternoon as a upper level wave passes.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

A surface ridge axis will slowly cross the Central Plains late
week through the start of the weekend as subtle upper level
disturbances rotate around an upper level ridge that will extend
across the central and northern Rockies. Given the easterly flow
in the lower levels along with the cooler 900mb to 850mb
temperatures at 00z Friday, 00z Saturday, and 00z Sunday the highs
late week into the weekend are expected to range mainly in the 85
to 90 degree range. Precipitation chances late week appear to be
confined to far west/southwest Kansas where there will be better
moist upslope flow present.

A northwesterly flow will continue across the Western High Plains
through the first half of the work week. As more upper level
disturbances move along this northwesterly flow there will be
ongoing chances for thunderstorms across more of western Kansas
through at least early next week. Temperatures will stay on the
cool side given the expected 850mb temperature trends and possible
cloud cover/precipitation.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

West/Southwesterly winds will shift to the northwest early this afternoon
as a surface cold front crosses western Kansas. Northwest winds
should begin the 18z Taf cycle at Garden City with a wind shift
between 18z and 21z at Hays and Dodge City. Liberal wind shift is
expected between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Some ongoing
late morning elevated convection should be tapering off in the
Hays and Dodge City areas around 18z Wednesday, however scattered
convection will again be possible near and southeast of Dodge City
and Liberal after 21z. Models soundings indicating cloud bases
through early tonight will be at or above 5000ft AGL. Overnight
there will be improving chances for low MVFR or even IFR ceilings
as an area of low level moisture spreads into north central and
southwest Kansas. Confidence is not high on timing of these low
clouds or how low this stratus deck will be but based on the
latest guidance it appears that low clouds will begin to move into
the Hays area between 03z and 06z Thursday, Garden City and Dodge
City between 06z and 09z, and into the Liberal area between 09z
and 12z Thursday. Surface winds overnight will be north northeast
at around 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  85  66  88 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  67  85  66  86 /  30  30  20  30
EHA  66  81  66  85 /  50  50  50  40
LBL  71  85  67  87 /  40  40  30  30
HYS  69  86  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
P28  75  89  70  90 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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