Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251736
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1236 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A weak upper level ridge will move out of the Plains today with an
upper level trough digging into the Intermountain West. A moderate
75+ knot jet will extend from the desert southwest northeast into
the Central Plains. The atmosphere above western Kansas looks dry
which will support mostly clear skies throughout the day. Towards
the surface, an area of low pressure will be found across eastern
Colorado this morning shifting eastward as the day progresses.
Meanwhile, a cold front currently across Wyoming will slowly ooze
southeast into the western Kansas tonight. This will lead to
strong southerly winds felt today shifting to more of a northerly
direction tonight. A few storms may form along the aforementioned
front with northern Kansas and west central Kansas having the best
chance of precipitation. Otherwise expect an increase in cloud
cover. Any precipitation that does form looks to dissipate or move
out of the area by midnight. As for temperatures, highs today look
to range from the lower 80s across central Kansas to lower 90s
across southwestern Kansas. Lows tonight will generally fall into
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Winds will shift back to a southerly direction Friday as an area
of low pressure redevelops across southeastern Colorado. A series
of upper level disturbances will then move through the area Friday
through Saturday night. The first disturbance looks to only bring
a chance of storms to west central Kansas Friday evening spreading
across the remainder of the area Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday
afternoon looks to be dry as an upper level ridge builds across
the western United States suppressing any activity across the
Plains. Another chance of precipitation looks to begin Tuesday
evening and continue into Wednesday. As for temperatures, highs
look to generally reach into the 70s with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Low ceilings are not expected given the very dry boundary layer
across the region through this evening, and the prevailing category
will be VFR. A cluster of thunderstorms may quickly move though the
northern counties very early evening timeframe with a brief gusty
wind and hail threat. After that, lower ceilings in the MVFR
category may develop after about 9 z, lasting through around
sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  93  55  80  56 /  10  10  20  30
EHA  93  55  81  54 /  10   0  20  10
LBL  94  56  82  58 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  83  57  78  57 /   0  40  10  40
P28  85  60  84  62 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell


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