Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301823
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  55  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  55  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  58  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  58  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  65  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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