Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE DAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25 TO 35
MPH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE
BOTH IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE PRECEDING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEING AT OR ABOVE THE 9000FT AGL LEVEL. AS A RESULT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY. A GUSTY NORTH WIND
WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 255 TO 35 MPH LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY SUNSET.
THESE WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RANGING FROM 17 TO NEAR 25 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER LEVELS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  71  38  74 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  45  70  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  70  39  74 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  47  72  39  75 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  48  70  36  76 /   0  10   0   0
P28  47  73  40  74 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT



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