Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
228 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. 800MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND FORCING IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE 00Z MODELS TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO TAPER ANY
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION OFF DURING THE DAY. BEFORE MAKING
FINAL CALL WILL LOOK AT THE THE LATEST ARW,NMM,HRRR, AND RAP LATER
THIS MORNING.

SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS SLOW CLEARING
TREND IN THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY BEING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN APPROACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN WHERE THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES IN THE 328 TO
332 LEVELS. MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT SO AT THIS TIME HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE
FURTHER WEST NAM SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  57  80  64 /  10  10  10  50
GCK  78  56  81  64 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  77  56  85  65 /  10  10  30  50
LBL  75  57  83  65 /  20  10  20  50
HYS  77  56  80  63 /  10  10  10  60
P28  74  60  78  65 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT


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