Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MINIMUMS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MID 20S WEST TO LOWER 30S EAST VIA DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ALSO SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUMS WILL BE
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY RECOVERING FROM A BRIEF VISIT
OF COLDER AIR FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL AND DIGGING TROUGH.
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHWESTER COUNTIES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE GRADIENT OF MAX TEMPERATURES FROM WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARDS HAYS COULD
SHIFT A LITTLE SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
LATER IN THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A RESULTING SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ENSUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH
WARMER AS DEEP MIXING WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES, SPREADING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. I`M PROBABLY A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS ON FRIDAY AS 85H TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
BE 15 TO 18 C.

ARCTIC AIR MAY MAKE A RETURN VISIT OVER THE WEEKEND, OR MAY BE
DELAYED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET CARVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. DETAILS ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES IS
POINTLESS AT THIS TIME. BUT, I`M SURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THIS, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VFR. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
15-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-18 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  32  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  52  27  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  53  28  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  53  29  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  51  32  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
P28  53  35  50  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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