Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 041718
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.
On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.
For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 65 95 69 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 92 65 95 68 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 92 65 97 68 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 92 65 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 87 65 92 68 / 40 50 10 10
P28 86 68 95 71 / 30 40 10 10