Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291826
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015


GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH AS OF 18Z, HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
BY 7 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO FAR HAS RANGED FROM 17 TO 25
PERCENT, BUT GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING THESE VALUES
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOME AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL APPROACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT
BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT WILL BE
DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE TODAY

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND FALL
BACK TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON
WHERE THESE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 30S WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 12Z MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY INTO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE 0-1KM LEVEL MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES DURING THE DAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL REACH THE 800MB
LEVEL. USING THIS AS A GUIDE THE NET 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3C IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO 7 TO 9C NEAR A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THESE
800MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 80 NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE DAY.

THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS
TIME THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS LATE
TODAY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SOME AREAS SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO JOHNSON CITY LINE WILL
APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THIS CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. DESPITE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA NOT BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR FIRES TO ESCAPE CONTROL MORE EASILY AND CONTAINMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT. OUT DOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LATE
TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  38  81  42  81 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  41  79  46  80 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  39  79  47  80 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  38  78  42  79 /  10   0   0  10
P28  37  75  47  79 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT



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