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000
FXUS63 KDDC 232312 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions can be expected tonight into Thursday. An upper
level ridge will dominate the Central Plains with light southeast
winds becoming south to southwest at 15-25kt after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse