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000
FXUS63 KDDC 032011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE A SEPARATE BUT PHASED UPPER TROUGH
/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THESE FEATURES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEEPENING OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST TODAY AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH AND HEADS EAST.

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO VEER WITH TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE SOME THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LEVEL OFF
OR GRADUALLY FALL BACK THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG I-70
WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES POSSIBLE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WITH
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BASED ON WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALSO. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER WILL BE STAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF DODGE CITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST
COAST LATE WEEK AND A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
GIVEN THIS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TOWARDS SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT
THIS TIME NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR
SMALL LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR. TONIGHT VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE AND FORCING
IMPROVES IN THE 800MB TO 600MB LEVEL. LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE AND LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  24   7  38 /  80  80  10   0
GCK  15  24   6  38 /  60  60  10   0
EHA  16  23  10  39 /  70  70  10   0
LBL  17  24   9  38 /  80  80  10   0
HYS  15  28   6  40 /  50  50   0   0
P28  19  25   9  39 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ045-046-062>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT