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000
FXUS63 KDDC 070902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
302 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

At 12z Friday a -43c 500mb low was located over southwest
Saskatchewan with an upper level trough extended south of this
upper low along the spine of the Rockies into New Mexico. Across
the west central high plains 40meter 12hour height falls were
reported ahead of this upper wave. Another upper level trough
extended west/southwest of this upper low and stretched across the
Pacific Northwest. 850mb temperatures this morning ranged from
-16c at Amarillo and Dodge City to -22c at North Platte. A surface
to 850mb ridge axis was located from western Nebraska into
southwest Kansas with light and variable winds observed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

The upper level trough located across Colorado earlier this
morning will move east across Kansas through the early evening
hours. As this system passes the skies will clear from west to
east as subsidence develops behind this upper wave. A ridge of
high pressure at the surface will move slowly cross western Kansas
overnight and based on the location of the surface ridge axis at
12z Saturday will continue to favor the coldest early morning
temperatures in north central Kansas. Wind speeds will not be
strong overnight, however even with these light winds the wind
chills early Saturday are still anticipated to fall back into the
10 to 20 degree below zero range. The coldest wind chills will be
across west central and north central Kansas so the current wind
chill advisory still looks on track.

On Saturday the area of high pressure at the surface will move
east and a south/southeast flow will develop during the day across
western Kansas. Warm air advection and isentropic lift will be
also developing during the day as moisture improves in the 850 to
700mb layer. The NAM model soundings indicating the depth of the
low level moist layer will approach 1000 meters deep by 21z
Saturday so as clouds thicken and lower there will be chance for
light snow or flurries by late day. A brief period of afternoon
flurries/light snow will be possible earlier in the afternoon near
the Colorado border, however by late day the better isentropic
lift and moisture advection will be shifting further east. Based
on the increasing clouds and 900mb temperature trends from the NAM
and GFS will stay close to the previous forecast with highs on
Saturday climbing only into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Per discussion with my short term partner, he will do the forecast
through Sunday, and my long term will start with Monday.

Monday will still be in the grip of the cold high pressure system.
Even though skies should be fairly clear, the low level cold air
will still be covering western Kansas.  The surface high will begin
sliding off the the east Monday night, and a warmer southerly flow
will return to the central plains.  After what seemed like longer
than a week, surface temperatures Tuesday will break the freezing
degree mark, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.  Wednesday
appears nearly the same to Wednesday, followed by a gradual warmup
into Friday.  Friday`s highs are expected to range in the upper 30s
north of I-70 to the mid 40s south along the Oklahoma border.  The
ECMWF brings in a swatch of high clouds for next Saturday, which may
knock high temps down into the 30s.  The upper flow pattern will
mainly be zonal Monday into Tuesday, then shift to northwest with a
warming down slope affect Tuesday into Friday.  Around Friday night,
the ECMWF is developing a small upper scale low pressure area near
the Kansas and New Mexico borders.  This is the feature which
should bring some high and mid clouds into the area and help knock
temperatures down a bit.  In addition, it appears a cold front will
slip south through the plains Friday night, and also add to the fall
in Saturday afternoon (day 8) temperatures. No precipitation is
forecast at this time with the fropa, but that will need to be
watched as the next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR conditions will continue into Saturday. As a surface ridge of
high pressure moves east, light and variable winds will become
light southeasterly towards morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  13  10  22   6 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  16   9  19   4 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  14  10  22   7 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  14  10  25   6 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  19   9  18   5 /  40  50  50  20
P28  21  12  26  11 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse