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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

An upper level trough will continue to move east and into the
Mississippi Valley today with a second branch splitting from the
flow and moving into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, Upper level
ridging will build across the Rockies and Plains today into tonight
with the next upper level shortwave moving into the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Skies will clear from west to east today as
moisture shifts to the east with mostly clear skies expected
overnight tonight. Strong northerly winds will continue at the
surface this morning with a gradual decrease in intensity this
afternoon into evening. Winds then become light and variable for the
first part of the night, then shift to the southwest by sunrise as
lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Abundant cold air
advection today will allow temperatures to be much cooler than
yesterday with highs only reaching to around 50 degrees. Lows
tonight will generally be in the upper 20s tonight due to the mostly
clear skies and light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

On Monday, an upper level shortwave ridge will be moving over the
High Plains while the next upper level shortwave trough moves toward
the Plains from the northern Rockies. A dry airmass and fairly deep
mixing during the afternoon will boost temperatures well up into the
70s during the afternoon.

The next shortwave moves out over the northern/central Plains on
Tuesday and closes off over Nebraska during the day. The associated
cold front will move out across western Kansas late Monday night.
There may be a period of strong winds immediately behind the front.
The winds may settle down somewhat before sunrise but with 40+ knot
winds progged at 850 millibars, surface winds could be hitting
advisory criteria especially during the morning/early afternoon
hours. The models have trended toward moving the best dynamics with
this system a little farther north with each run. With limited
moisture, chances for precipitation across southwest Kansas look
limited to nonexistent. Will still carry some small pops for light
rain along I-70 during the day.

The remainder of the extended period looks fairly quiet as the upper
flow becomes a little more zonal. A shallow wave is progged to move
across the northern Plains Thursday night and Friday providing a
brief shot of cooler air to the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

MVFR ceilings at Garden City and Dodge City dissipate toward
midday with skies becoming clear all across central and southwest
Kansas. Gusty north winds will gradually diminish through early
afternoon with prevailing winds becoming light and variable by
late day. Wind speeds could approach 12 knots from the southwest at
Garden City and Dodge City by the end of the taf period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

A warm and dry airmass will spread out over western Kansas during
the day Monday on southwesterly downslope flow. By afternoon,
relative humidity levels are expected to drop to 15 percent or less
in the area along and west of a line from Dighton through Dodge City
and Ashland. With winds possibly gusting into the 25 to 30 mph
range, have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the above
mentioned area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  28  73  41 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  49  29  74  40 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  52  32  76  41 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  51  28  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  27  73  40 /  10   0   0   0
P28  49  25  73  42 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ064>066-
076>081-086>090.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard