634
FXUS63 KDDC 150720
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
220 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today with temperatures near the century mark in some
  areas.

- Increasing thunderstorm chances (50-70%) late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

WV imagery indicates a general westerly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Very minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) return to northern portions
of western Kansas late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the
SREF continues to show a weak upper level shortwave trough
transitioning east through the Northern Plains, ushering an attendant
frontal boundary southeast through northeast Colorado/southwest
Nebraska before it is projected to stall out in vicinity of northwest
Kansas. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of a gradually
deepening surface low in southeast Colorado will reinforce pooling
moisture across all of central/western Kansas, providing sufficient
instability. Although a weak disorganized flow aloft, marginal
capping, and lack of trigger mechanism will hinder storm development
across much of central/southwest Kansas, isolated thunderstorms still
cannot be ruled out along and north of the stalled boundary to our
north, and potentially in a field of steep mid-level lapse rates
in vicinity of increased low level convergence associated with the
trough axis/dryline in extreme eastern Colorado. This outside chance
seems to fall in line with the latest HREF/NBM pointing to only a
10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in isolated
areas on the periphery of west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
by late evening.

Significant thunderstorm chances (50-70%) arrive late Wednesday as
a secondary upper level shortwave trough kicks east through the
northern Colorado Rockies into the high plains of northeast Colorado
and southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas, in turn dislodging the
aforementioned stalled frontal boundary southward through southwest
Kansas into northern Oklahoma Wednesday evening. Considering
persistent ample moisture/instability present combined with steepening
mid-level lapse rates from peak daytime heating, thunderstorm
development is expected sometime by Wednesday evening as H5 vort
maxima begin to eject out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with
said boundary. This is supported by the NBM indicating a 30-50%
probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across much
of southwest Kansas northeast up into the I-70 corridor in central
Kansas by early Thursday morning.

A warming trend continues today as prevailing southerlies further
enhance warm air advection into the high plains, pushing H85
temperatures well above 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C
near the Colorado line. With the HREF painting a widespread 70-90%
probability of temperatures exceeding 95F today, look for afternoon
highs up into the mid/upper 90s(F) to near 100F is some locations.
Similar temperatures are likely Wednesday before the aforementioned
frontal boundary begins to shift southward late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late Tuesday afternoon. Light south-southeast winds through mid-
morning Tuesday will increase 15 to 25kt generally after 14-15Z as
lee side troughing slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson