Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
101 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Strong thunderstorms impacting the northern zones early this
morning, with outflow wind gusts of 50-60 mph the primary threat.
Bowing segments seen on radar imagery are facilitating momentum
transfer from the low level jet just above the surface. HRRR
solutions continue to suggest a loosely organized convective
complex will continue to affect the NE CWA through sunrise. Feel
activity will remain NE of Dodge City. Frequent lightning and
outflow winds are the threats, with anything more than small hail
quite unlikely. South of the storms, the low level jet is firmly
established this morning, keeping the boundary layer mixed and the
winds elevated, still gusting 30-35 mph. Hugoton gusting to 40 mph
as this is written, purely from the LLJ. Between the boundary
layer moisture, the mixing winds, and cirrus debris clouds
overhead, temperatures will struggle to fall to 70 by sunrise at
many locales.

Wednesday...Another hot day on tap, with afternoon temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s. S/SW winds will be strong and gusty for a
few hours after sunrise, gusting over 30 mph at times, as the low
level jet mixes out and weakens. Winds will diminish rapidly by
midday as the pressure gradient collapses and a weak boundary
sinks south into SW KS. Winds will take on an E/NE component
behind this boundary across the western counties by afternoon,
while S/SW winds remain strong all day in the SE zones. Some
convergence will be noted on this boundary in a strongly heated
airmass, but with a strong capping inversion, again opted to keep
all grids dry through 7 pm.

After 7 pm this evening, storms are expected to develop and impact
roughly the NE 1/2 of the CWA. Storm coverage expected to be
highest NE of a Scott City-Jetmore-Pratt line, where some storms
will likely produce large hail and damaging winds. Some
significant hail reports (>2") are possible along the I-70
corridor this evening from any initially discrete supercells.
NAM12 cranking out some healthy energy helicity indices across the
E/NE border areas through about midnight, so looks to be a busy
evening. Currently feel storms will remain east of US 283, and may
end up remaining further east than that. Another warm night, with
lows again near 70 Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

More hot temperatures Thursday, severe weather potential with a
cold frontal passage Thursday night, followed by milder
temperatures on Friday. A warming trend is expected over the
weekend, sending SW KS back into the 90s Sunday afternoon. Next
week appears quite hot, as a strong subtropical upper high over
the Great Basin Monday expands eastward into the plains all of
next week.

Thursday...Again kept the forecast dry through 7 pm. Thursday
evening is being monitored closely for the potential for severe
weather, and the possibility of high end wind reports across the
eastern/NE zones. NAM solutions in particular show a volatile
setup ahead of the cold front, with CAPE upwards of 4000 J/kg and
sky high EHI values east of Dodge City Thursday evening. With NAM
solutions suggesting an organized complex Thursday night, a
forward propagating MCS seems plausible with a threat for
damaging winds. This threat is highest east of US 283 after 7 pm

Friday...Noticeably milder, more stable and dry. MCS outflow-aided
cold front progged to be south of SW KS, ending the chances of
thunderstorms. Highs reduced back to the 80s with NE winds.

Saturday...Return flow SE winds waste no time pushing moisture
back into SW KS, with showers or stratus possible Sunday morning
with a passing warm front.

Sunday...Much hotter, with stronger lee troughing taking us back
well into the 90s.

Monday...Still hanging onto one last chance of thunderstorms in a
NW flow regime, as the inevitable summer subtropical high begins
to expand over Utah. 00z ECMWF does suggest a significant
thunderstorm complex impacting the SE CWA Monday evening.

Fourth of July...onward through next all looks hot,
with heights steadily climbing as huge subtropical high pressure
ridge engulfs the central U.S. by Thursday. Suspect model guidance
will begin cranking out triple digit highs for this time period


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

We expect another round of late night thunderstorms to roll across
northern Kansas, with impacts primarily at HYS terminal. Timing
appears to be in the 04-10z window, which is when VCTS will be
carried at HYS. DDC, GCK, and LBL should be far enough south such
that thunderstorms shouldn`t be an issue. South winds will remain
fairly strong overnight, and another intense low level jet will
lead to some LLWS conditions with 50-60 knots at about 2000 feet
AGL during the overnight hours.


DDC  97  69  96  65 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  98  65  95  63 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  98  63  98  62 /   0   0  10  10
LBL 100  67 100  65 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  96  67  92  63 /  20  50  10  20
P28  97  72  98  69 /  30   0   0  30




LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.