Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 111904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

For tonight, a weak shortwave in northwest flow aloft will send
another wind shift and cold front across western Kansas. Light west
to southwest winds will shift to the northwest and north this
evening and overnight. There could also be some more stratus up
by Hays towards morning. Only some high level cirrus clouds are
forecast overnight for the rest of the region. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30.

For Friday, a more significant cold front moves across western
Kansas as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the Upper Midwest.
Light northwest winds shift to the east and northeast at 12 to 22
mph with increasing clouds. Highs will vary greatly from east to
west with around 60 far west near the Colorado border to only around
40 at Hays. The Dodge City area is expecting around 50 for the high.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Very low precipitation probabilities were included associated with
mainly a freezing drizzle and fog possibility on Friday night into
very early Saturday morning, however, this only glances the
northwest most sections of west central Kansas as the model signal
is focused over the northwest part of the state. A general cooling
trend each day ends by Sunday as the easterly surface wind gets
whipped around from the west once again as a shortwave dives through
the Northern Plains. A short period of weakly cyclonic flow aloft
will continue into the Monday timeframe and pops may need to be
revisited in the coming forecast cycles, but at this point the
confidence is extremely low for precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Some low stratus at KHYS is forecast to dissipate early this
afternoon, then reform early Friday am after 12Z as wind shifts
back to the light north-northeast. Elsewhere expect VFR with light
south to southwest winds shifting northwesterly at 5-12kt after
00-03Z as a weak surface trough moves across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  51  22  41 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  29  53  24  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  33  59  30  58 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  31  58  27  50 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  30  42  19  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  32  52  21  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse



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