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000
FXUS63 KDDC 220648
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Today temperatures will climb to around 100 degrees based the
mean mixing depth forecast by the NAM and GFS along with the
temperatures at 00z Wednesday in the 850mb to 700mb level. All
models, and even guidance, continues to indicated lower dew points
today compared to yesterday, however based on verification of dew
points from yesterday afternoon it appears that the models are too
low by 3-6 degrees. Taking this discrepancies into account and
given the expected highs will go ahead an issue a heat advisory
for portions of north central Kansas. will need to monitor the
Medicine lodge area given several hours of Heat index readings at
104 which is just below advisory criteria.

A weak cold front/surface boundary will stall out in northern
Kansas by early evening and a surface trough of low pressure will
extend south/southwest of this boundary into the panhandle of
Oklahoma. Both areas will be the main focusing mechanism for
evening convection as CAPE values by 00z climb to greater than
2000 j/kg. Better forcing currently appears to be along and north
of the cold front. Also appear the cap will be weaker in this
location as well. Will therefore focus main chances for evening
and overnight convection along and north of this weak cold front
while keeping convection more widely scattered further south.
0-6km shear is forecast to be around 30knots across northern
Kansas so strong to marginally severe thunderstorms can not be
ruled out. Strong gusty winds currently appears to be the main
hazard should any storm develop along the surface lee trough
extending south of this cold front early this evening based on
model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A shortwave trough riding over the top of the upper level ridge will
progress from the northern plains today into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday and then into the Middle Atlantic region by Wednesday.
This will help push a cold front into central Kansas by Tuesday
evening and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. There is only
a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening along a weak
surface trough in far western Kansas and then along the cold front
Tuesday night. Aside from some wind and small hail from these high
based storms in the evening, high-end severe weather is not
expected.

It will be humid Wednesday behind the cold front, especially near
the Oklahoma state line, but with no upper level support or surface
convergence, thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures should be
several degrees cooler, with highs from 93F near interstate 70 to
around 97F near the Oklahoma state line. By Thursday, a strong upper
level system will move into the northwestern United States, with
ridging extending from the Desert Southwest into western Kansas.
With renewed lee troughing, high temperatures ought to warm back
to the mid and high 90s, with possibly some readings near or over
100F. Little in the way of thunderstorm activity is expected. The
next cold front is expected to pass through western Kansas by
Saturday or Sunday as the upper level system over the northwestern
United States passes over the upper level ridge into the Great
Lakes, with the associated cold front moving through western
Kansas. There is some disagreement from model to model and model
run to model run with the strength of this cold front. Keep in
mind that if the front is stronger, then high temperatures could
drop lower than currently forecast. Regardless of the solution,
high temperatures ought to drop at least several degrees by Sunday.
There will be small chances for thunderstorms as the front passes.
A more significant cool down is possible by mid next week as an
even stronger upper level system moves over the ridge and
amplifies over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Ongoing light precipitation will gradually taper off from
northwest to southeast early this morning with 05z surface
observations, 00z NAM BUFR soundings, and latest HRRR indicating
ceilings will be above the 6000ft AGL level with this
precipitation. Winds will be variable at 10knots or less around
the ongoing precipitation but after 09z become southwest. Wind
speeds will increase to near 15knots by late morning and persist
through the remainder of the day. VFR conditions are also expected
through the day on Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach the
Hays area by early evening allowing for the southerly winds to
shift to the east/northeast between 00z Tuesday and 03z Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 100  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  98  70  97  70 /  10  20  10  10
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYS 102  72  93  70 /  20  20  10  10
P28 101  74  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-046-065-066-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert