Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL
CAUSE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY. STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
CREATE OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS A
BROAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHS PLAINS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY FROM AROUND WAKEENEY THROUGH COLDWATER-MEDICINE LODGE
BASED ON MODEL LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AREAS ALONG THE
OK-KS LINE TO LIBERAL AND ELKHART HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
MOST INSOLATION TODAY, HOWEVER COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD STILL BE
BE DOMINANT IN SPITE OF THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES TRANSPORTING
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MUCH COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MORE READILY COOLS FROM LONGWAVE RADIATION TRANSFER AND SURFACE
WINDS WEAKEN TO LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST FALL TO THE LOW
TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS AS WELL OF
SINGLE DIGITS LOWS FROM THE SMOKEY HILL VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOVE EASTERN CANADA.
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE FELT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED MONDAY THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY NOON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THIS FRONT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE
BEHIND THIS FRONT ALLOWING CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING 4 DAYS OUT, THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY CHANGE AS IT COMES CLOSER TO THE PRESENT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO END BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THE SURFACE AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE SAME AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS SYSTEM
COMES CLOSER TO THE PRESENT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. HIGHS TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE EVEN WARMER DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE
WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LOWS BOTH MORNINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO THE
TEENS. ANOTHER WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY, AROUND 60 DEGREES FRIDAY, AND IN
THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S FRIDAY
MORNING, MID 30S SATURDAY MORNING, THEN AROUND 40 DEGREES SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

A TYPE 2 WAVE IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR A COMPLETE SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE
FRONT. RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND (LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
MID LEVEL WAVE EXITS THE AREA, RENDERING LOW IFR AND POTENTIALLY
LIFR STRATUS THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL AVIATION HAZARDS TO CONTEND
WITH EARLY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LIFR
CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  13  44  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  31  14  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  20  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  18  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26   9  43  26 /  10   0   0   0
P28  33  14  39  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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