Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1156 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

A weak cold front was passing south through western Kansas early
this morning. Dense freezing fog has formed in some locations,
especially along a corridor from Dodge City to Garden City.
A dense fog advisory was in effect for freezing fog for much of
southwestern Kansas; but it may not materialize in some areas. A
shortwave trough will approach the high plains tonight and then
move across the plains Saturday. Strong southwesterly momentum
will tend to cap the moist layer; but isentropic lift, strong
shear and a moist layer around 1 km deep should result in drizzle
development this evening, changing to freezing drizzle tonight for
areas that fall below freezing. It is uncertain how much
temperatures will recover today and this will have implications on
whether the drizzle is freezing or not tonight. Given the morning
fog and continued moist, upslope flow we think that temperatures
will struggle to get out of the mid to upper 30s today along
and east of a line from Wakeeney to Dodge City. After
coordination with neighbors, opted to go with a winter weather
advisory for Ellis county for tonight into early Saturday. This
may need to be expanded when there is more confidence on
temperatures. The light freezing drizzle will change to plain
drizzle and end from west to east Saturday morning. There is a
chance that it may be cold enough through a deep enough layer that
the precipitation would be in the form of light snow along a
Scott City to Wakeeney corridor late tonight, with a slightly
deeper moist layer in that area. But snow amounts are not expected
to be more than a dusting if any at all.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

A fast moving shortwave trough will pass across the plains
Sunday with little in the way of moisture so that precipitation is
not expected. The next shortwave trough will pass across the
plains by Wednesday. This is another fast moving system so that
the best chance for any precipitation, most likely rain, would be
in central and eastern Kansas. There will be a warming trend
Sunday through Tuesday and then slightly cooler as the trough
passes by late Wednesday. Another warming trend can be expected by
late week and into the weekend with highs warming into the 50s
and 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The latest models soundings continue to suggest the IFR/LIFR
ceilings at 18z Friday over western Kansas will give way to low MVFR
conditions by late day. Some periods of low VFR conditions will
even be possible in the Hays area between 21z Friday and 00z
Saturday which seems reasonable given the latest satellite loop.
Ceilings will then lower back into the IFR/LIFR category by 03z
Saturday at all TAF sites and areas of fog and patchy freezing
drizzle is then expected to begin to develop after 03z. An
extended period of freezing drizzle or even light freezing rain
will be possible in the Hays area between 09z and 15z Saturday
which could yield up to one tenth of an inch in ice accumulations
in this area by Saturday morning. Elsewhere ice accumulations
through early Saturday morning will average less than 0.05 of an
inch. Winds today and overnight will be east to southeasat at 10
knots or less.


DDC  35  29  47  19 /  10  50  20   0
GCK  36  27  44  17 /   0  70  20   0
EHA  41  26  47  21 /   0  20  10   0
LBL  38  29  49  19 /   0  20  10   0
HYS  39  27  39  18 /  10  60  70   0
P28  37  33  49  22 /  10  30  30   0


Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ074>078-

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Saturday for KSZ031.



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