Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290641
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S STILL
LOOK REASONABLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BY MID DAY THIS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT THE NAM HAS THE 0-1KM WINDS AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 850MB
WINDS RANGED FROM 40 TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 15Z
SUNDAY. BASED ON THESE WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 18Z.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE MIXING DEPTH EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800MB TO 750MB LAYER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGH RANGING FROM 70 TO NEAR 75. DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 17 TO 23 PERCENT RANGE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THIS RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  39  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  37  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  40  76  46 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  73  40  76  47 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  69  37  76  42 /  10  10   0   0
P28  74  40  74  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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