Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...MINOR AFD CORRECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR THIS EVENING IS WHAT TO DO WITH
SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENTS OF POPS. LARGELY BIASED POP ARRANGEMENT
TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND 4 KM NAM. THE GFS HAS
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH THAN THESE MODELS AS AN OUTLIER. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH AXIS THAT IS
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN WITH CLEAR SKIES, SO AM
MORE DUBIOUS TO CONVECTION FORMING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CUMULUS IS STARTING TO BUBBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT NOT REACH OUR AREA AND THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT IS DISPLACED/FORECAST TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO NOT
SURE OUR NORTHWEST ZONES ARE IN THE AREA FOR SUSTAINED LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
ANYWAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE IN THE BETTER AREA OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-
1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER VIA THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION COMES UP WITH A VALUE OF 4
TO 5, SUGGESTING THAT 1.5" WOULD BE THE MAX FOR UPPER HAIL SIZE
FORECAST DISTRIBUTION. PROBABLY WILL BE SMALLER AS CONVECTION
BECOMES QUASI-LINEAR (AT LEAST SHOWN IN THE MODELS) AND YOU GET
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION
FOR HAIL EMBRYOS. SPEAKING OF WHICH, WITH A PWAT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER
+2SD, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER 1-3" PRECIPITATION HIT FOR
LOCATIONS THAT ARE UNDER TRAINING STORMS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH A PREFERENCE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT MAINLY EVENING. MINIMUMS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE MAIN WAVE AND RETROGRADE
AS A CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDWEST. INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT, DON`T THINK ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LAST
TOO LONG INTO THE EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO
WHETHER THESE STORMS DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR REMAIN CONFINED
FARTHER SOUTH.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS EJECTED EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH BY THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE
ISN`T ANY REAL DEFINITIVE PREFERENCE IN TARGET AREA. AS A RESULT, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL AMEND/ADJUST
AS NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL ARRANGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE ABOVE, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  85  61  85 /  60  20  20  20
GCK  61  87  60  86 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  60  87  60  83 /  20  20  30  10
LBL  61  88  61  85 /  60  30  30  20
HYS  59  83  59  84 /  30  10  10  10
P28  60  82  62  85 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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