Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 062246
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, LOCATED OVER ALBERTA EARLIER THIS
MORNING, CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME SLIGHT COOLER AIR
RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HOWEVER
INDICATED ANY COOL AIR THAT DOES INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE BRIEF COOL DOWN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS EARLY
SATURDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR TO BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 60S BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING
FROM +6C TO NEAR +9C.

TONIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMTH IS THE MAIN STORY HERE. WITH COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORS, DECIDED TO GO ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THIS GUIDANCE
IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MEX. THE NET RESULT IS THAT
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, AND 70+ DEGREE HIGHS LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST
DAY IS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL. STILL, THINK
THAT EVEN WITH INCREASING THE FORECAST HIGHS, THE CURRENT GRIDS MAXS
ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE. THE MEX SHOWS 77 FOR DODGE CITY,
VERSUS THE ALTERED 72 IN THE NOW. THE ECE GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN THE
MEX. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  63  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  63  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  62  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  63  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  64  34  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE


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