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000
FXUS63 KDDC 300545
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE HAD THE
MODELS IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT.
GFS IS HANDLING THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE BEST AND WEIGHTED ITS
FORECAST THE MOST IN REGARDS TO THE RAINFALL. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF MAIN RAINFALL BAND. BEFORE NEW
ECMWF CAME IN...MODELS WERE TENDING TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. ALSO REALITY AND MODEL DATA SUPPORTING SLOWER. SO
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
DUE TO A POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH PLACE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND. KEPT
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
RAINFALL ENDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOSTLY DRY THE REMAINDER TO THE
SHORT TERM. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AFTER A COUPLE OF GLANCING BLOWS OF PRECIPITATION THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK UP AFTER THIS BRIEF COOL DOWN AND REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Moderate to heavy rain from showers and thunderstorms will impact
GCK and DDC through the night and into much of the day Wednesday.
We will carry prevailing thunderstorms from around daybreak
through early/mid afternoon. Farther north at HYS, we will only
carry TEMPO and PROB30 for showers as they should miss out much of
this heavy rainfall event. Through the event, borderline MVFR/IFR
can be expected, with IFR during the heavier precipitation cores.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  82  61  85 /  30  10  10   0
GCK  57  83  61  85 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  60  79  62  84 /  40  20  10  10
LBL  61  82  61  84 /  40  20  10   0
HYS  62  84  63  87 /  10  10  10   0
P28  61  82  64  85 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-
074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLD/MTB
LONG TERM...GLD/MTB
AVIATION...Umscheid