Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201103
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Albeit a slight chance, thunderstorms will be possible later today
as an upper level shortwave, and associated H5 vort maxima, lift
northeast across the Texas Panhandle into central Kansas this
afternoon. A prevailing return flow will continue to slowly advect
moisture northward into the Central Plains, pushing surface
dewpoints to near 60F as far north as south central Kansas. Short
range model soundings show favorable shear later today while
instability increases upward of 1000 J/kg by mid to late afternoon.
However, lack of a triggering mechanism, a fairly weak flow aloft,
and a strong cap may very well hinder any storm development.
Still, an isolated storm or two cannot be completely ruled out
late this afternoon/early evening, so will keep a mention of
slight pops across south central Kansas.

Strong southerlies will reinforce a warmer air mass already in place
across the high plains today with H85 temperatures ranging from the
mid teens(C) in central Kansas to near 20C along the Colorado border
by this afternoon. Expect highs up into the lower to mid 80s(F)
across west central and portions of southwest Kansas to the mid to
upper 70s(F) in south central Kansas where increased cloud cover may
limit climbing temperatures. Temperatures will be well above normal
tonight with lows only down into the 50s(F) and 60s(F).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Thunderstorm chances bump up a little Saturday as a progressive
upper level trough pushes through the Intermountain West into the
Western High Plains early in the period. In response, surface low
pressure will develop and strengthen lee of the Rockies while a
sharpening dryline edges slowly eastward into southwest Kansas.
Meanwhile, moisture will continue to advect northward ahead of the
dryline with surface dewpoints reaching into the lower to mid
60s(F), particularly across south central Kansas. Taking into
account the timing and positioning of the fast approaching front,
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
boundary as it pushes into increased instability more readily
available in south central Kansas. Favorable shear profiles and
sufficient dynamics aloft in the form of a +70kt jet may be
enough to support strong to marginally severe thunderstorms before
they quickly move off to the east with the front. A quieter pattern
will return Sunday as much drier air filters into western Kansas
in wake of the aforementioned frontal passage and is reinforced
by yet another cold front moving through early next week.

More seasonable temperatures can be expected across western Kansas
Saturday as much cooler air filters southward across the high plains
in wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs are only expected to reach
up into the 60s(F) from west central Kansas to portions of southwest
Kansas. Highs should still climb into the 70s(F) ahead of the front
in south central Kansas before it moves through later in the
afternoon. A brief warming trend will ensue Sunday as surface high
pressure extends from the Colorado Rockies southeast into the South
Plains setting up a westerly downslope flow across western Kansas.
Expect highs to reach back up into the lower to mid 70s(F) Sunday
afternoon with slightly warmer highs Monday before another cold
front pushes through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Gusty south winds will increase to around 25 knots between 15z
and 18z Friday across western Kansas as strong winds in the
boundary layer mixes down to the surface and surface pressures
fall along the lee of the Rockies. By 21z these southerly winds
are expected to increase into the 25 to near 30 knot range where
they will stay through the remainder of the day. After sunset
these strong winds will fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range as
the NAM and GFS develop a 50-55knot low level jet. NAM also
attempts to develop some stratus and fog after midnight while the
GFS does not. At this time will hold off inserting IFR stratus and
fog into the TAFS at this time but will insert a wind shear group
late in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  61  69  39 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  82  55  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  54  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  83  59  68  36 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  80  62  67  38 /  10  10  20   0
P28  77  66  75  43 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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