Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
247 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Upper low, located over east central New Mexico at 00z Sunday,
will lift northeast into central Kansas by early this afternoon.
As this system crosses the Texas Panhandle early this morning
another round of steadier and heavier precipitation will spread
into western Kansas. All the models continue to agree with
significant snowfall from this next round of steadier and heavier
precipitation. Additional accumulations of 10 to 14 inches is
not out of the question along the mid level deformation
zone/TROWAL axis ahead of this upper low from roughly Johnson to
Garden City to around Scott City. Time frame for this heavy
snowfall will be from 4 am to 4 pm. Lower snow totals expected
further east with much of this next round of precipitation near
and east of highway 283 being mainly liquid. At this time
confidence is still not high on where the rain to snow line will
be located early today so will continue to keep the gradient of
snowfall as is for now. Will monitor this through the early
morning hours and if the ran/snow line ends up being further east
then higher snow accumulations will be possible in the current
winter weather advisory area and may have to upgrade a few
counties to a winter storm warning.

Tonight...Ongoing precipitation will taper off from southwest to
northeast as the upper level storm system moves from eastern
Kansas into Iowa. As the precipitation ends the skies will clear
and the winds will decrease to 10 to 15 mph. This will produce
favorable conditions for temperatures to fall back into the 20s
for locations that have received significant snowfall. Further
east temperatures will be warmer but still 30 to 35 degree lows
still will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A northwesterly down slope flow will develop Monday and 850mb
temperatures warm roughly 8 to 10 degrees from 00z Monday to 00z
Tuesday. Despite this warming trend the weekend snowfall will
limit the warm up across portions of western Kansas. Will undercut
guidance in locations where the more significant snow fell while
trending more towards the warmer 850mb mix down temperatures

Chances for rain will return late Tuesday and Wednesday as
moisture and lift improves across western Kansas and an upper
level trough approaches from the northwest. As this upper level
wave crosses the Central Plains mid week a cool dome of high
pressure at the surface will build into western Kansas. This will
bring an end to the early week warming trend but as an upper level
ridge axis begins to build east into the Rockies late week
temperatures will once again warm back to more seasonal levels as
a period of dry weather returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Next round of widespread rain and snow will spread across western
Kansas overnight as an upper low lifts northeast across the Texas
Panhandle. IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities due to rain or
snow can be expected from this precipitation overnight and early
Sunday. Garden City will have the best chance for significant
snowfall between 9z to 21z Sunday with snow accumulations over
this time frame being 6 to 10 inches. With this heavier snowfall
visibilities may also be reduced to less than one mile at times.
At Dodge City and Hays snowfall of 2-5 inches will be possible
depending on when the rain changes over to snow. Time frame for
this snowfall is also between 9z and 21z Sunday for Dodge City,
Hays will be 12Z Sunday through 00z Monday.

Gusty north winds near 25 knots will increase to around 30 knots
between 12z and 15z Sunday and then continue through the
remainder of the day.


DDC  36  32  61  39 / 100  20   0  10
GCK  36  28  54  35 / 100  10   0  10
EHA  38  30  56  36 /  90   0   0  10
LBL  39  31  62  38 / 100   0   0  10
HYS  35  33  59  39 / 100  50   0  10
P28  41  34  68  44 /  80  10   0   0


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for



SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.