Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
416 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EXIST TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPPER RIDGE;
REMAINING WEAKLY SUBSIDENT OR NEUTRAL WITH RESPECT TO VERTICAL
MOTIONS.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
EXPANDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MO.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOULD LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING HOURS. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ACCOUNT
FOR MAINLY RAIN/SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT VARIES BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

ALTHOUGH NOT AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY WAS, THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS TODAY. MODELS ONLY FORECAST MID
60S UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A MESSY FORECAST CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
RANGE PERIOD. THE LEAD S/WV TROUGH SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL STRATUS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE STILL
EXPECTED. THUS, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY
AND I MAY BE A LITTLE WARM ON MAX TEMPS. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND ANY PERTURBATION OR SPEED MAX IN
THE FLOW COULD ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER S/WV
TROUGH EJECTING IN THE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING WILL BE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST TEXAS OR THE PANHANDLE.
SATURDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE YET ANOTHER
REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO WEEKEND EVENTS WITH ALL THE CONVECTION THAT
WILL OCCUR ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. I`M STRONGLY LEANING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF
MY FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY ARE PROBABLY OPTIMISTICALLY
WARM, EXPECT MAYBE THE FAR WEST WHERE SOME SUN MAY BREAK OUT.

BEYOND SATURDAY, THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR, BUT PLACEMENT AND
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK, THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO DRY
OUT ANYTIME TOO SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
OR MOST OF IT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND MOS OUTPUT ONLY HAS THE
STRATUS SITUATION IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING IF ANY TREND AT ALL,
AS DRIER AIR FROM THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INFLUENCES WESTERN KS. A
SURGE OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SURFACE UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  48  59  53 /  10 100 100  50
GCK  63  48  60  52 /  10 100  90  50
EHA  61  48  66  55 /  10  80  70  40
LBL  65  49  63  56 /  10 100  90  40
HYS  63  47  59  52 /  10  60  70  50
P28  66  50  61  55 /  10  80  90  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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