Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Breezy and mild this morning, with south winds gusting near 30 mph
at times and dewpoints holding well into the 50s. Scattered cirrus
with a strong low level jet through sunrise, feeding elevated
thunderstorms over NE KS. With elevated moisture and mixing,
temperatures will struggle to fall below 60 degrees through

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, as strong thermal
ridge pushes into SW KS ahead of approaching cold front. Afternoon
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. SW winds will be gusty
for a few hours this morning, but winds will weaken during the
afternoon hours as surface cyclone deepens over the western CWA
and pressure gradient weakens.

Cold front sweeps quickly through SW KS this evening, with gusty
NE winds. Some gusts of 30-40 mph may occur with the initial
fropa. Convergence on the frontal boundary is expected to yield
scattered thunderstorms developing around 7 pm across/near the
NE counties, with convection subsequently spreading south through
the SE counties through early Thursday morning. Forecasted
CAPE/shear appear supportive of supercells with the initial
development, with large hail the primary threat. Storms should
attempt to grow upscale into one or two clusters as the frontal
boundary pushes them south, at which time damaging wind gusts
would become an increasing threat across the SE counties.
Uncertain how far west thunderstorms will backbuild along the
front this evening, but best guess is the severe threat will
remain east of a Wakeeney-Jetmore-Ashland line. Have noticed that
the 00z GFS builds convection all the way back to Dodge City this
evening. A tornado or two is possible this evening with the
initial discrete development over the far NE zones (Ellis, Rush,
Pawnee, Stafford counties). Otherwise, breezy NE winds will usher
in a cooler, drier and more stable airmass tonight with lows
Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s NW to the mid 50s along
the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The aforementioned cold front will pass across western Kansas
Wednesday night, resulting in cooler lows in the upper
40s by Thursday morning and highs in the 60s on Thursday.
A strong upper level level trough will amplify over the central
plains Thursday night into Friday night. Western Kansas is
expected to be on the cool side of the system so that severe
weather is not expected this far north. However, widespread
showers and thunderstorms should occur north of the front across
most of southwestern Kansas. The widespread cloud and
precipitation should keep temperatures from climbing out of the
50s. Some highs in the upper 40s are possible in locations such as
Syracuse, Johnson and Lakin.

Skies will clear late Friday night with lows in the lower 40s.
Some upper 30s are possible as well, especially in far western
Kansas. Highs on Saturday and Sunday should only recover into the
upper 60s despite sunshine. A warming trend will commence early
next week ahead of another upper level trough. There is another
chance of thunderstorms by next Tuesday or Wednesday as this
system passes.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

VFR expected at all airports through this TAF period. A strong low
level jet will continue across SW KS through sunrise, with
SW 850 mb winds near 55 kts. Low level wind shear will continue
areawide through sunrise. Gusty south winds overnight will veer
SW and remain gusty at 15-25 kts for a few hours Wednesday
morning. SW winds will weaken during the daylight hours Wednesday
as surface low pressure develops over SW KS, reducing the pressure
gradient. A cold front is expected to reach HYS by 00z Thu, and
the remaining airports by 03z Thu. An abrupt shift to NE winds
will accompany this frontal passage, with gusts of 30-35 kts.
Expecting thunderstorms to develop along this frontal boundary
near HYS around 00z, and perhaps near/east of DDC by 03z.
Mentioned VCTS/CB for HYS/DDC during the evening hours.


DDC  59  87  50  69 /   0   0  30   0
GCK  57  89  48  69 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  56  87  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  90  54  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  84  48  68 /  10  10  10   0
P28  60  85  54  69 /   0  10  40  10




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