Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD. A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL TURN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TEENS(C) CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER. ALONG WITH THE HELP OF SOME DOWNSLOPING IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO
THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CIRRUS MAY
LINGER TO THE 60S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S(F) IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

WARM AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TRANSITIONS TO NEAR
ZONAL ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY. THEN
FOR SUNDAY, A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FORCING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MILD AND FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.

FOR SUNDAY, STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 AT HAYS TO 50 TO 55 AT DODGE TO GARDEN, AND 55 TO 65 FROM
MEDICINE LODGE TO ELKHART. AFTERNOON TEMPS THEN FALL INTO THE 40S
AND 30S FROM NEAR DODGE AND NORTH. WILL KEEP A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE FORECAST. THE NEW ECMWF HOLDS UP THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC BOUNDARIES
USUALLY ARE FASTER THAN MODELS FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE
MUCH COLDER AND IN THE TEENS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE ONLY IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AROUND HAYS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE STAYING WELL NORTH OF KANSAS, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S, AND LOWS
SLOWING WARMING FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 20S. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY,
HOWEVER THE GFS AT THIS TIME LOOKS MORE ZONAL. HIGHS MAY NOT BE AS
WARM ON TUESDAY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT AND IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS. THE LEE TROUGH WILL
BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  31  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  32  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  36  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  28  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
P28  53  30  64  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH



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