Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 310835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND HYDROLOGY SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER THIS EVENING AND
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CLOSES OFF AND WALLOWS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DIFFERENCES
IN SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 10C ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY NEARLY EVERY DAY. LOCATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES
THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE. THERE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR STUDY BY SCIENTISTS WITH THE
PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT PROJECT.

IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EXTENSIVE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS SPREADING BACK INTO
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES, BUT THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.

PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TODAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH, AND CAPES WILL APPROACH 2500
JOULES/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND PRODUCTION OF SOME HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE- ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNSET.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH H8 WINDS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING, AND A LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS UNLIKELY. THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED FROM WASHINGTON INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATER TONIGHT AND INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL WARM POOL.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY AND TO PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY GRADUALLY WILL RECOVER FROM THE INVASION OF
COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE WIND AND CLOUD COVER FROM ANVIL DEBRIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS EACH EARLY
MORNING FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE
60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY INITIATE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AOA 250
THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TODAY, BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GRADUALLY WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNSET AND TO WEAKEN DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS NEAR 050 AND VISIBILITIES LOCALLY BLO
3NM CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NEAR HYS TO EAST OF DDC
AND TO DISSIPATE IN CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WATER LEVELS ON CROOKED CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. THE
PAWNEE RIVER NEAR BURDETT CRESTED SATURDAY MORNING WELL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM AT ROZEL AND LARNED
AS THE HIGH FLOW MOVES DOWN THE CHANNEL, BUT THE PAWNEE SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  56  79  63 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  79  56  82  63 /   0  20  10  20
EHA  83  58  89  61 /   0  20  10  20
LBL  80  58  83  62 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  75  54  78  61 /   0  30  20  30
P28  76  57  80  62 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUTHI
HYDROLOGY...RUTHI


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.