Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122313
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Scattered weak showers persisted this morning and continues into
the afternoon, despite relative weak mid level lapse rates. More
impressive low level lapse rates farther west may be the narrow
zone where a few non severe thunderstorms develop this afternoon,
aided by weak vorticy advection rotating through the panhandles
and western Oklahoma. As any forcing becomes quickly removed from
the area this evening precipitation chances should dwindle with
time. Some convective allowing models develop one or more mcs
clusters from ne Colorado into northwest Kansas during the
overnight. In most cases the models suggest the convection decays
as it reaches the west central Kansas counties. As such pops will
be ramped up modestly overnight, as well as an introduction of fog
across the southwest where widespread low stratus should quickly
redevelop. HRRR is the most aggressive model with respect to
thunderstorms early Sunday in the far western counties and may be
overdone when considering the other CAMS. Additional development
Sunday would be contingent on how fast the stratus might be mixed
out if at all. The NAM develops no convective precipitation at
this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

A relatively cool period continues through the extend, although
temperatures  begin to revert back toward normal climatological
highs by mid week and beyond. Probability for precipitation should
remain low though mid week in the absence of any significant
lift/forcing. However by wednesday the models begin to carve out a
western/Intermountain upper trough which should lend itself to
eject shortwave energy into the Central Plains region. Western
Kansas will have precipitable water values within the 90% moving
average, conducive for MCS maintenance any given period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Low level stratus will prevail/redevelop across much of southwest
Kansas tonight resulting in MVFR cigs in the vicinity of KGCK, KLBL,
and KDDC. KHYS could see MVFR cigs toward daybreak Sunday morning
while the remaining TAF sites could possibly see IFR cigs. High
relative humidity and very light southeast winds could result in
areas of fog development late tonight with MVFR vsbys possible.
Light southeast winds will persist through early Sunday as surface
high pressure remains locked in across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  82  66  87 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  63  81  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
EHA  63  82  63  87 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  63  81  66  88 /  20  20  30  20
HYS  62  82  66  88 /  10  10  10  10
P28  64  83  68  87 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson



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