Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181810
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
110 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TONIGHT:

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A MINOR WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO, WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THERE ARE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. MINIMUMS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S.

TOMORROW:

THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THROUGH SUNDAY, WE WILL HAVE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUMS TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SETS UP PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OTHER AREAS WELL OFF TO OUR EAST,
DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND A
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS AND A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WILL QUICKLY
RETURN A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EVEN WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT 10-20 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  66  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  63  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
P28  67  45  76  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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