Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 100521
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1121 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

A classic high-index Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection
pattern was ongoing. 584 decameter H5 anticyclone was centered over
Tahoe with a deep, mean trough axis centered from the eastern Great
Lakes into Georgia. This put western Kansas in a rather strong
northwest flow pattern with H5-7 trajectories coming off the high
terrain of Wyoming where H7 temperatures are around 0C give or take
a couple degrees. A surface trough axis centered from central NE up
into the Dakotas will push off to the east tonight into Sunday. This
will not impact our weather much at all as the overall MSLP gradient
will not change much. 850mb temperatures, with this fresh round of
downslope momentum, will warm to around +10C on average across
western KS Sunday, and this will support afternoon temperatures well
into the 60s. Given how dry the airmass is, the warmest
model/guidance is the best solution for afternoon temps, which will
likely be mid 60s everywhere on average. Red Hills of Clark-Comanche-
Barber Co. may see some 67 or 68F readings for highs. Abundant
sunshine is forecast given the strongly anticyclonically curved flow
downstream of the major ridge axis out west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

On the whole, the PNA pattern will continue through at least mid
next week, although there are some indications the ridge out west
may break down some. The next jet streak rippling through the PNA
pattern will be coming down the Northern Great Plains on Monday.
This will result in an increase in surface winds out of the
northwest as a surface cyclone develops and passes southeast across
the Midwest Region. We will see a glancing shot of fresh continental
Polar air, but it will quickly become downslope-modified. Through
the entire forecast period next week, forecast highs will be in the
50s to lower 60s -- largely a continuation of what we have already
seen. The next of the northwest flow perturbations would be sometime
late Wednesday Night or Thursday with more or less the same result
as Monday`s wave.

As mentioned up front in this section, the latest round of global
spectral model solutions show a break down of the pronounced ridge
out west mid to late in the period -- but this may actually have
an enhanced warming effect on western Kansas weather as H5-7
trajectories will come more directly off the northern Colorado
Rockies. Regardless, above to much above normal temperatures are
forecast through mid to late next week, and there is no sign of
appreciable precipitation -- or even light precipitation until we
see a fundamental hemispheric pattern shift consistently away
from this high-index PNA regime of mean ridging out west and
troughing east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Dry northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft will result in
prevailing VFR conditions across central and southwest Kansas
through the period. Westerly winds at around 10 knots overnight
will become northwesterly at 10-15 knots on Sunday. There could be
some gusts to around 20 knots or so, especially around Hays.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  66  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  64  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  66  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  23  65  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  63  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  66  30  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Gerard



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