Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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418
FXUS63 KDDC 201700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Strong shortwave will track across SW KS this afternoon. Given 12z
NAM solution, and various CAMs and HRRR solutions, expanded pop
grids through this afternoon, and included a mention of isolated
lightning and thunder. 12z NAM drops lifted indices down to the
-1 to -3 range, with CAPE of 300-400 J/kg. With 500 mb temps
falling to near -24C, some updrafts may be rather vigorous (for
late January standards) and deliver some cloud to ground
lightning. Given the amount of outdoor activity cleaning up tree
damage in progress, we will emphasize the risk of lightning this
afternoon in our DSS products.

Dense fog continues across the E/NE zones (Hays) and across the
western zones (Johnson City and Syracuse). The dense fog
advisories are scheduled to expire at 10 AM, but may need to be
extended. Will watch observations. Expect fog to lift after noon
as incoming shortwave mixes the atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The first item of concern is dense fog. Pratt, Hays, and surrounding
locations have been reporting dense early this morning. Have widened
the advisory to include more counties based off these observations.
Short term guidance still suggests that a hole of less dense fog is
possible, particularly near Dodge City. This will be watched and adjusted
as trends become more apparent.

For the rest of today, some the guidance is cooler (ARW) versus others
(NAM). With the fog and stratus lingering, opted for the cooler solution.
This might be particularly true across the northern zones. Anyway, calling
for a gradient of mid 40s north to 50s south.

For these evening, a shortwave trof will move across northwest Kansas.
Light showers will be possible and both global and mesoscale models
keep much of the heavier precipitation across northwest Kansas. The
highest pops are in the northwest zones, and this still looks on track.
Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the mid 20s west to lower 30s east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Yet another trof is progged to move across the Southern Plains over
the weekend. Again, some light showers and snow showers will be possible
with this second feature. The main low is forecast rather far south,
so precipitation along the OK state line will be light and much of our
area will remain dry. Beyond this, a third system moves across Nebraska
Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving much of southwest Kansas dry. After that,
a dry pattern is forecast from the ECMWF. Temperatures look fairly warm
through the weekend with 50s. A slight cool down is forecast in the
wake of the weather systems next week with mainly 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Complicated TAF package. Degraded flight categories will continue
for the next several hours, with MVFR stratus at GCK/DDC and fog
slowly dissipating at HYS. A strong shortwave will bring scattered
light rain showers, and isolated -TSRA, through this afternoon.
Coverage of this activity will be limited, so only included VCSH
for now. -SHRA will remain in the vicinity of HYS into the
evening. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve this evening
as the shortwave departs. Models are hinting at patchy fog
developing again around 09z Sat as the sky clears, but confidence
is low, so only included modest vis reductions in BR and VCFG for
now. Winds will not be a factor during this TAF cycle, averaging
near or less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  29  53  31 /  30  10  10  20
GCK  48  27  51  29 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  51  27  51  30 /  20   0  20  30
LBL  55  28  53  30 /  10   0  20  30
HYS  47  31  52  31 /  30  20   0   0
P28  53  32  57  35 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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