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000
FXUS63 KDDC 230604
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
104 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS IT IS GETTING PHASED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THEY DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR IS STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WORKING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST, ALBEIT WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE. AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
STABLE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S IN
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
COULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SURGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. BUT SOME MID LEVEL FLOW COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR HAYS TO THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR EAST IT WILL PROGRESS. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE. FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG, SO
TORNADIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S SINCE
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HAYS AREA BY 10Z AND INTO GCK AND
DDC BY 12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTENING EASTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED AND WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE WAS ALREADY
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE SURFACE FLOW MOVES WEST INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE REACHED AT HYS
BY 12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT DDC/GCK. I`VE LEFT PCPN OUT OF
THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY BY SUNRISE AROUND HAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  81  63  89 /  40  30  30  30
GCK  58  83  63  91 /  30  40  40  20
EHA  59  88  63  92 /  30  40  30  20
LBL  60  87  64  91 /  30  40  30  20
HYS  56  77  67  89 /  40  40  30  40
P28  59  78  67  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HUTTON