Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1107 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017


Issued at 943 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a trough of low pressure is
shifting eastward across western Kansas.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Chamber of commerce weather across SW KS, with a very enjoyable
Thanksgiving afternoon. Wisps of cirrus continue to rotate around
an impressive 594+ dm upper high south of San Diego. Unseasonably
warm temperatures will approach near record levels this afternoon
in the low to mid 70s (the record at Dodge City is 74 and normal
is lower 50s). Winds will trend SWly through sunset and remain

Tonight...Unseasonably mild. Most locations will easily hold in
the 40s overnight, as warm advection is reinforced at 850 mb and a
downslope breeze keeps the boundary layer mixed. This is some 15+
degrees above late November normals.

Friday...Continued unseasonably warm. Light SW winds at sunrise
will trend northerly and modestly gusty by midday, as the next dry
cold front arrives. Atmosphere will be very warm through about
noon, with 850 mb temperatures near 20C. As such, temperatures
will soar upwards into the 70s through midday, then slowly fall
with the north wind shift Friday afternoon. Unseasonably warm 70s
are expected in all zones, but the warmest temperatures will occur
where the prefrontal downslope/compression lasts the longest (in
the Ashland/Coldwater vicinity, where lower 80s are possible). The
record high at Dodge City for November 24th is harder to beat
(80/1990) and will only be reached if the northerly wind shift can
be delayed. Regardless, another abnormally pleasant late November

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The extended stretch of dry weather for SW KS will continue
through Monday, and probably Tuesday. There is some hope for
needed rain and/or snow around Wednesday next week.

Saturday..."Cooler", but still well above where we should be in
late November. Shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft will be
accompanied by a cooler surface high at the surface, trimming
afternoon temperatures back to the lower 60s. With the surface
high nearby delivering a weak pressure gradient, winds will be
light and Saturday will be a good day to hang the Christmas
lights on the house.

Sunday...Warmer. Persistently strong upper high over NW Mexico
expands NE into the plains with strong 500 mb heights rises. The
next warming trend will begin, with many locations reaching 70
degrees. Winds will still be light.

Monday...Even warmer. The warmest temperatures of the forecast are
expected Monday afternoon, as a very warm plume originating off
the Mexican plateau is directed onto the plains, ahead of a
pattern-changing strong cutoff low in Nevada. Expect 70s at all
locales Monday afternoon, with some lower 80s here and there. The
record high at Dodge City for November 27th is 81/1933. It will be
tough to reach, but not impossible with gusty downslope SW winds
and a very dry ground.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Weather pattern will finally change across
the plains, with models in agreement on a strong shortwave/closed
low quickly crossing the plains during this time frame. 12z GFS is
much more progressive than the 12z ECMWF, and GFS displays a known
progressive bias during the medium range. For example, GFS places
its closed low in western Oklahoma 6 pm Tuesday, while the ECMWF
has its closed low over the Four Corners. A huge difference, and
this timing disparity will impact when our precipitation chances
will occur. Feel the slower ECMWF solution will win out, but even
its eastward translation is faster than we would like to see for
significant precipitation generation in SW KS. Still, 12z
deterministic ECMWF offers some hope for a parched plains,
tracking the upper low directly over SW KS on Wednesday, with
strong lift producing a strong QPF signal across the NE zones.
Seems a bit wet for a system moving so quickly, and with everybody
looking for moisture, there are precious few pops in the grids and
forecast until we know more. Much cooler Tuesday and Wednesday,
almost down to normal!


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
evening. West-southwest winds 5 to 10kt will persist through late
Friday morning as a weak surface trough moves east across central
into eastern Kansas. Winds will turn northerly 10 to 20kt Friday
afternoon as a cold front pushes across western Kansas.


DDC  45  75  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  75  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  75  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  77  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  74  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  43  78  40  63 /   0   0   0   0




LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.