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000
FXUS63 KDDC 300842
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERED AROUND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR PERIODS OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS AND QPF/SNOW GRIDDED. THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER  SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PRESENT GENERAL CONSISTENCY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN
SHOWERS PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EARLY SATURDAY
LOOKS TO THE TIMEFRAME LEAST FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH A STRONG PV ANOMALY DIVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANY LIGHT THAT PRODUCES SNOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE MELTED INTO RAIN IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST UNTIL IF NOT AFTER (WEAK) COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND SCOURS OUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE LAYER.
THE LATEST MODEL RUN SNOW AMOUNTS RANGED FROM BASICALLY NOTHING
FROM THE GFS WHICH APPEARED TOO WARM TO JUST OVER AN INCH ON THE 6
HOURLY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM THE NAM. THE MODEL PLUME
DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE MAXIMUM EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR
SPECIFIED SITES WITH COBB OUTPUT SUGGESTING ONLY A TRACE SNOW
EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE AIR IS COLDEST
THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS/COUNTIES.

IF ANY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MESOSCALE FORCING. CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY IS POSSIBLE BUT STRATUS COULD LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION MY MONDAY, PROVIDING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW, LEE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY NOON WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  33  44  28 /  30  70  50  60
GCK  47  33  43  27 /  40  60  40  50
EHA  44  32  45  29 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  46  33  46  29 /  50  70  50  60
HYS  48  32  42  25 /  40  80  60  60
P28  48  34  44  30 /  20  60  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42