Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A 3000 TO 3500FT AGL MOIST LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT IN LAYER WILL BE OCCURRING
UNDER A LAYER OF WARM 800 TO 700MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH 15Z. WILL
THEREFORE TREND TOWARDS HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER GOING GIVEN THE IMPROVING INSTABILITY EXPECTED UNDER THE
500MB COOL POOL THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MODELS THIS MORNING STILL
INDICATING A MIXED LAYER DEPTH UP TO AROUND THE 750MB LEVEL DURING
THE AFTERNOON. USING THESE TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE TODAY FOR HIGHS
TODAY THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS BOTH INDICATED THIS
MORNING THAT THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS IN THIS DEPTH WILL NOT AS
STRONG AS WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUNS SUGGESTED. WILL HAVE SOME 35 TO
45 KNOTS IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT BY 18Z
THE MEAN WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. THIS STILL SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 20
TO NEAR 30 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVE THESE EXPECTED WINDS ALONG WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING. A FEW AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE WIND CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE NILL WITH THIS WAVE WITH ONLY MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH RETREATS, WARMER WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH DEVELOP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 60 TO 65. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OVER HYS TERMINAL WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
FELT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASING WINDS THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE BY 3 PM. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL
OCCUR. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TODAY SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  40  65  32 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  71  38  62  30 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  71  41  63  34 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  73  40  65  33 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  70  39  60  30 /  10   0  10  10
P28  75  43  69  36 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT


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