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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250810
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER MAJOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS REGION DURING THIS PERIOD (THIS EVENING). AHEAD OF IT,
THOUGH, WE WILL BE SEEING ONE MORE MILD DAY ACROSS THE SNOW-FREE
AREAS OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SINCE THE EDGE OF
THE SNOWPACK HAS RETREATED SOME, MORE AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE
ARW CORE SOLUTIONS (WRF-ARW, RAP, HRRR) FOR TODAY`S TEMPERATURES --
ALL OF WHICH SHOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
50S FROM WAKEENEY-HAYS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN TOWARD GREENSBURG-
PRATT. IT WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISING IF HAYS AND/OR PRATT HIT 60F.
THE FIRST WIND SHIFT TODAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL NOT BE THE
ARCTIC FRONT, BUT ANOTHER MOUNTAIN-CROSSING PACIFIC FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE DOWNSLOPE WARMED AIR BEHIND IT. QUICK ON ITS HEELS, THOUGH,
WILL BE THE REAL ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA AROUND SUNSET, AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A RAPID
TEMPERATURE FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S BY 04Z (10PM CST) WITH A
CONTINUED FALL DOWN TO THE LOWER TEENS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOW A SIGNAL OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A
SUBTLE LIFTING ZONE (MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/COLD FRONTOGENESIS)
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THIS VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT EAST BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVES. LATER TONIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20 TO 30 POPS
(SNOW) RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN A ZONE OF UPSLOPE WHICH
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS COLORADO, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION.
850 TEMPS LOWER FROM ZERO WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 15 BELOW CELSIUS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO FRIDAY. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
DIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY WILL BE
AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES INTO
FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN INCH OR 2
POSSIBLE. THE AREAS OF SNOW WILL BE FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WARM SLOWLY INTO THE 30S FAR WEST, TO MID
AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE, ON SATURDAY, THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SOUTH OF DODGE CITY
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW CHANCES STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY, THEN TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CLEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGHS SLOWLY MODERATE TO AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH KANSAS
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONT, THERE WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 16 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT
LATER ON THIS EVENING, CEILINGS WILL LOWER FURTHER, APPROACHING
IFR AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S KNOTS, AT LEAST. PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTED AT GCK, DDC, OR HYS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  14  22   7 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  42  14  21   7 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  42  16  23   8 /  10  30  30  40
LBL  44  16  22   9 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  48  12  20   5 /  20  10  10  10
P28  46  17  23   9 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID