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000
FXUS63 KDDC 281736
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

  ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
BACKDOOR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE (WHICH WAS NOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COOL BY LATE JULY STANDARDS (UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
+20C). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY, SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83F RANGE. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WHERE MORE ABUNDANT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.
WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POPS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, LEADING TO MORE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
BOTH SUGGEST A RAMP-UP IN PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME, AND POPS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD MUCH COOLER AND WET IS IN PLACE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING, BUT
GENERALLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. REMARKABLE CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT
APPEARS IN THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE DAYS 2-3 TIME FRAME
(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS FLATTENED OUT BY THE UPPER JET, A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN GENERAL BY SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION ONGOING OR DEVELOPING
AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IDEA/SOLUTION HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS, WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES. STRATIFORM RAINS WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY S VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT. WITH THIS PATTERN SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A THREAT AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED  SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AND
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60`S F THROUGH THE DAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW MODERATION BACK INTO THE
80S, WHICH ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
AUGUST. CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD
AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE MUDDLED, HOWEVER WEAKLY STEERED
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE REGION SHOULD BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERRODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  64  75  62 /  20  80  80  90
GCK  84  64  75  61 /  20  80  80  90
EHA  79  65  80  61 /  60  40  70  90
LBL  80  65  76  62 /  20  60  70 100
HYS  89  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  90  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...DR/GLD