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000
FXUS63 KDDC 211822
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated for the short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

High pressure aloft will remain centered over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through the next 48 hours. This will ensure
very hot surface temperatures will continue, with most of
southwest Kansas rising into the triple digits today and Tuesday.
At the same time, a lee side surface trough will be advancing
into far western Kansas late this afternoon and evening. This
trough will be the focus axis for some convection, and that trough
could push some of those thunderstorms a bit farther east late
this evening. There could be a slight chance for thunderstorms
after midnight in our north and northeast zones, with the surface
trough moving through central Kansas.  In any case, I will not put
very much QPF amounts with these storms.  After the hot afternoon,
the overnight temperatures will be elevated, and generally in the
the lower to mid 70s tonight.  Winds will be southwest early in
the 15-20 MPH range, and then become more southerly as that surface
trough advances farther east and reduce to the 10 to 12 MPH range.

On Tuesday, the upper high pressure system will still be in
control.  However, at the surface, a weak cold front will drop south
from the northern plains and essentially drop into that surface
trough.  This could trigger a few thunderstorms along and near the
front/trough, across our north and western zones late in the afternoon.
Maximum temperatures will likely occur prior to the front moving
south, and thus even the Hays area will likely see 101F readings.
Dew points will again be in the mid 50s in our west to the mid to
upper 60s in our east, which only gives a max heat index of 103F,
just shy of Heat Advisory criteria.  This will need to be watched,
and updated if needed.  Winds on Tuesday should be south at 10 to
12 mph, but shifting to the east in our far eastern counties, on
the other side of the trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

An upper level ridge axis will extend from New Mexico into
central Canada through mid week as a surface boundary moves into
central Kansas and portions of western Kansas Tuesday night. At
this time based on where the better upper level dynamics will be
from an upper level jet and the warm +14c 700mb temperatures late
Tuesday into Wednesday am concerned about thunderstorm development
Tuesday night. A subtle disturbance will be crossing north central
Kansas Tuesday night and with some moisture present a slight
chance for thunderstorms can not be ruled out, mainly across north
central Kansas

Based what the NAM and GFS suggest on the mixing depth at 00z
Wednesday and the temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level the
previous forecast for highs around 100 degrees still looks on
track for western Kansas. The warmer temperatures will be in north
central Kansas which will be just ahead of the approaching surface
boundary. Heat index readings across north central Kansas of
around 104 will be likely based on the expected highs of around
102 and afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is just below
Heat Advisory criteria, however will continue to highlight the
heat in the hazardous weather outlook.

Warm air advection improves Wednesday night north of the surface
boundary but at the same time the 700mb temperatures are forecast
to be slightly warmer than Tuesday night. Could once again have an
a few late night/early Thursday morning thunderstorms over portions
of north central and even south central Kansas. At this time it
appears the probability will be lower than the thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday will be cooler than Tuesday based on the net change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. Given
this trend highs will be mainly in mid 90s. A warming trend will
then return late week as the surface boundary lifts back north as
a warm front and 850mb temperatures warm from the mid to upper 20s
into the 30C to 35C range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The flight conditions will remain VFR throughout this 24 hour TAF
forecast. Winds will be southwest at 13g20kts this afternoon. I
only see a few cirrus clouds now, but expected a few mid clouds
around few-sct090 after the trough moves east, then more cirrus
clouds which may constitute a cig this evening and overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  72 100  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  71  98  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  72 100  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  73 102  73  93 /  20  10  20  10
P28  74 101  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke