Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121105
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

A warm advection pattern was developing this morning as winds
resumed from the southeast. A disturbance was moving slowly
eastward across the southern high plains with a large batch of
showers and thunderstorms south of Kansas. Rain showers were
developing early this morning over parts of southwest Kansas
as well. The next upper level disturbance in northwesterly flow
is expected to move southward from Canada into the northern plains
by Sunday afternoon and into the Great Lakes region by Sunday
night. The large scale flow pattern is expected to change by
Monday and Tuesday, with zonal flow developing at mid to high
levels along with embedded upper level disturbances approaching
from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move across southern Kansas today. The models differ on how
far north this precipitation will make it. The clouds and
scattered rain will keep temperatures from rising out of the
70s from Dodge City south to the state line with slightly
warmer temps near 80 near Interstate 70. Temperatures tonight
will be held up by cloud cover with lows in the lower to middle
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Embedded disturbances in westerly flow along with abundant low
level moisture will lead to more chances for thunderstorms into
Thursday along with continued moderate temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s for highs. The best chance of storms Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night may be from Dodge City west to the Colorado
state line. A few of the storms could possibly be severe early
to mid week. The best chance of thunderstorms may be Tuesday and
Tuesday night as a fairly strong disturbance passes through
western Kansas. A drying trend should commence by next weekend as
upper level ridging develops across the Rockies and high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Scattered convection this morning was occurring ahead of an upper
level disturbance that the RAP, NAM and GFS all had moving across
western Kansas early today. This convection may briefly taper off
during the afternoon. Another chance for convection will then be
possible overnight, especially across north central Kansas as
another upper level disturbance approaches from the northwest.
Model sounds today from the RAP and NAM indicated that cloud bases
will be at or above 3000ft AGL. The exception will be near and
south of Dodge City and Garden City from 12z and 18z Saturday
where a moist up slope flow may lead to a period of IFR ceilings
and MVFR visibility conditions. Low IFR conditions are forecast to
return after 03z Sunday as the southeasterly wind continues to
draw more humid air in the lower levels back into western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  63  82  64 /  70  40  20  30
GCK  77  63  81  63 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  77  63  82  63 /  50  30  20  40
LBL  76  63  81  64 /  80  40  20  40
HYS  79  62  82  65 /  30  30  10  20
P28  79  64  83  67 /  70  60  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert



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