Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022337
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
637 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Quiet weather will persist through the Short Term Period. The only
thing to watch will be a fairly weak upper level perturbation moving
from north to south across the Northern Plains today. This will
reach western Kansas late night/early Tuesday and will bring some
mid level cloud with it. Very light precipitation may be associated
with some of the mid level potential vorticity anomaly, but the lack
of moisture and frontogenesis will prevent organized precipitation,
and we will keep the POPs below mentionable (less than 15 percent).
Nevertheless, a few sprinkles can`t be ruled out across far west
central/southwest Kansas. Late in the afternoon, there may be enough
convergence along a weak surface trough to promote development of
very light rain showers/sprinkles as the -21 or -22C 500mb cold
pocket moves through southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

After the recent cool period, we will see temperatures warm back
up to seasonal values in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs
beginning Thursday. Western Kansas will be under the influence of
synoptic ridging midweek, which will result in the warming of the
lower to mid troposphere across the higher terrain out west.
Eventually, this warm air will spread out into western Kansas once
we see some deep tropospheric southwestern momentum enter the
picture again, which really won`t come back until Friday. By
Thursday, though, we should start to see some lower 80s for highs
across the far west/southwest counties. A persistent trough in the
eastern CONUS will keep high pressure along the Gulf Coast region,
keeping deep Gulf of Mexico moisture from returning back to
western Kansas anytime soon. Even with the approach of the next
big Pacific trough next weekend, we will likely only see marginal
moisture return (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s
mainly). There may be enough south flow from the Gulf by late in
the weekend to support some organized convective activity across
our part of the world again, which is the time frame of highest
POPs in the forecast. It remains to be seen if or how much severe
weather will be involved with this weekend storm system given the
poor moisture return (until late).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A shortwave trough will swing across western Kansas overnight with
increasing mid level cloudiness, and may be some virga. Light and
variable winds will become light south to southwest, then shift to
the northwest after 12-15Z with an associated weak cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  70  45  76 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  38  69  42  75 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  42  69  43  76 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  39  69  43  77 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  40  71  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  42  73  47  78 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Kruse


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