Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL MERIDIONAL FLOW
WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A
CLEARING TREND IN PROGRESS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR OVER
ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE WITH ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTH BY
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 40S
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TONIGHTS LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

LEE TROUGHING WILL INTENSIFY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INTO THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE SO THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY AND LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY WITH COLD TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE
12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  43  23  60  24 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  47  28  62  24 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  46  24  64  25 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  41  24  51  24 /   0   0   0  10
P28  42  27  56  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



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