Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Upper air analysis showed a strong upper level jet extending from
the eastern Pacific into the central High Plains this afternoon. A
weak shortwave/vort max was moving through northeast Colorado this
afternoon on the cyclonic side of the upper jet. At the surface,
a low pressure trough had moved out into central and southwest Kansas
today. Short range models show the shortwave trough moving northeast
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon over eastern Colorado will move across northwest Kansas
into Nebraska later tonight with the shortwave. This activity should
stay north of the Dodge City forecast area tonight.

On Tuesday, a surface low moves east through the central High
Plains. A cold front will drop south across southwest and central
Kansas behind the low and will be moving through the Medicine
Lodge area by mid afternoon. This front should be clearing south
central Kansas during the afternoon but there could be a small
window of opportunity for some thunderstorms to develop along the
front over the far southeast counties. The atmosphere is not
overly unstable over the area tomorrow afternoon but 0-6km shear
is pushing 60-70 knots. Depending on how much low level mixing we
can get immediately behind the front, there could be a narrow
window of opportunity for an isolated marginally severe storm
producing strong winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

On Monday night, another stronger shortwave moves out of the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains. The mid levels of the atmosphere
moisten up by late afternoon into the evening hours ahead of this
wave. The models generally agree on an area of showers and thunderstorms
developing over southeast Colorado and into southwest Kansas during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the convective allowing
models are hinting at updraft helicity swaths with a few of the storms.
Models may be picking up on the strong shear aloft but think that
the severe potential should diminish as CAPE values drop significantly
farther behind the front. Precipitation chances could linger into
Wednesday over south central Kansas before the upper wave moves
east of the area.

Wednesday into Thursday should be relatively quiet as weak shortwave
ridging moves over the central High Plains. Another shortwave trough
will be diving out of the central Rockies toward the central High
Plains on Thursday. Ahead of this wave, the surface front lifts
back north into western Kansas. Model soundings from the GFS show
another window of opportunity for a few severe storms along a Dighton-
Garden City-Dodge City-Ashland corridor as MUCAPE increases to near
1000 j/kg and shear values are around 50 kts. There could be some
fire weather issues over far southwest Kansas where deep layer
mixing and a dry airmass exist to the west of the front.

The next and strongest storm system develops toward the weekend as
an upper level low develops over the Four Corners region late Friday
night and then lifts to the east northeast into the weekend. The
models show some cold air pushing into far western Kansas on Saturday
into Saturday night. This could result in a rain/snow mix or a
changeover to snow over western portions of Kansas Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night before the precipitation ends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

An upper level trough will move from the central Rockies and out
into the West Central High Plains overnight as an area of low
pressure at the surface crosses southwest Kansas. Winds overnight
across western Kansas will average 10 knots or less and begin the
night southeast to easterly and then become more west to northwest
towards daybreak, mainly in the DDC and GCK areas, as this
surface low crosses southwest Kansas. A surface boundary/cold
front, located near or just north of the I 70 corridor overnight,
will drop south across southwest Kansas early Tuesday as the
surface low moves into central Kansas. As this cold front passes
gusty north to northwest wind at 15 to around 20 knots will
develop between 12z and 18z Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected
overnight given that only mid to high level moisture will precede
the upper level trough as it moves out of the Rockies and into the
West Central High Plains. Low VFR ceilings will then be possible
behind the surface cold front early Tuesday, especially around
Hays. If the NAM ends up being more correct on the low level
moisture return could even have some low MVFR ceilings returning
after 15z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  73  39  58 /   0  20  60  30
GCK  49  70  38  59 /   0  30  70  10
EHA  52  71  39  60 /   0  40  70  20
LBL  52  75  40  60 /   0  30  60  30
HYS  51  65  39  56 /  10  20  50  20
P28  56  78  44  57 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert


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