Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182357
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Weak shortwave generating scattered sprinkles and light rain
showers across the eastern CWA at midday. Any light rain and
associated clouds will this disturbance will diminish this
afternoon. Moisture advection has been notable today, with
surface dewpoints well into the 30s (even 40 currently here at
WFO Dodge City). S/SE boundary layer flow will maintain this
moisture supply through tonight, with high confidence of stratus
and/or fog developing after midnight. Low ceilings and reduced
visibility will develop first across eastern zones, and expand
westward through sunrise Thursday. Included areas of fog in the
grids after midnight, with the exception of the far SW zones.
Visibility near 1/4 mile is possible, especially NE zones, and a
dense fog advisory may be required. Drizzle is not expected, and
most areas with fog are expected to remain above freezing. With
high dewpoints, temperatures will struggle to fall tonight, and
remain well above normal. Warmed lows Thursday morning well into
the 30s, with the exception of 20s far west. SE zones will hold
near 40 degrees overnight.

Thursday...Fog and stratus will persist well into the morning.
Models are suggesting low ceilings/visibility may be slow to
erode, and this will have an implication on temperatures.
Expecting a slow erosion from west to east, and forecasted highs
in the 40s north and 50s south. Upper low near Hays Thursday
morning will move to near Kansas City by 6 pm, allowing ridging to
build along the CO/KS border by afternoon. Most pleasant
conditions (the most sunshine and mildest temperatures) will be
found across the western/SW counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Mild temperatures, for January standards, will continue through
Sunday. Excellent news for the continued cleanup efforts, and for
the many still awaiting the restoration of electricity. Many power
outages continue, especially in rural locales, and the above
normal temperatures will help. There are three seperate chances of
precipitation in the long term.

Friday...Models have been consistent swinging an intense
negatively-tilted shortwave through Kansas. While dynamically
intense, moisture will be scarce, keeping pop grids modest and
relegated to the northern zones Friday afternoon. Most anything
that does fall Friday is expected to take the form of rain.
Temperatures remain mild, with highs ranging from 48-58.

Saturday...A brief period of shortwave ridging will provide dry
conditions Saturday morning. A much stronger shortwave,
accompanied by strong jet stream energy, is expected to rapidly
push onto the southern plains by 6 pm Saturday. This evolution
will bring increasing clouds Saturday afternoon, with a chance of
light rain across the far SW zones late in the day. Temperatures
remain mild and change little, once again upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday Night...Model guidance remains very progressive with this
storm system, to the point that meaningful precipitation across
SW KS may be difficult to achieve. 12z ECMWF QPF fields just clip
the southern zones (Oklahoma border), and matches the superblend
pops and the WFOs AMA/OUN. With cold air limited, expecting to see
a phase change from rain to snow across the southern zones, but
with progressive nature, any precipitation appears to be light and
fleeting. Impacts minimal in Kansas, with higher impacts expected
in Oklahoma.

Sunday...Broad ridging promises more dry weather. Strong gusty NW
winds are expected behind the departing cyclone, but with a lack
of cold air advection, still expecting upper 40s and lower 50s.

Models fall into disarray around the beginning of next week.
12z ECMWF shows the active parade of shortwaves continuing, with
one on Monday with wind and light rain/snow. Dry and much warmer
with SW flow aloft on GFS/superblend. All medium range models
continue to agree a very energetic cyclone will reach the plains
about next Tuesday. GFS solutions show a high wind event (850 mb
winds in excess of 50 kts), which would be very problematic with
all the weakened trees. ECMWF has changed its tune with this
feature, with a more southerly track producing accumulating snow
across SW KS. Regardless, it appears a pattern change to much
colder weather is likely the middle of next week. Outdoor clean
up efforts will become much more uncomfortable starting about
Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Ample low level moisture will continue moving into western Kansas
along and ahead of a surface trough. Dense fog is expected to
develop between 04 and 09z at the TAF sites and persist through
14z before improving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  52  33  53 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  30  50  28  50 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  29  57  30  54 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  34  55  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  46  34  46 /  10  10  10  20
P28  38  55  35  58 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch



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