Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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845
FXUS63 KDDC 161458
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
858 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 855 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level ridge of high pressure
transitioning east across the Western High Plains. Near the surface,
a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening across extreme
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the lee
of the Rockies today as westerly down slope flow improves across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Based on the 24 hour
temperature change in the 900mb to 850mb level the highs today
should easily climb back into the 60s. Most locations across
western Kansas will be in the mid to upper 60s. Highs in the lower
70s still appear likely near the Colorado border.

South winds at 10 to 20 mph, increasing clouds after midnight,
and warm boundary layer winds will keep temperatures up tonight
when compared to earlier this morning. Lows tonight are expected
to be mainly in the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Models on Friday are in decent agreement with a cold front
dropping south across Nebraska during the day as an upper level
trough approaches from the west. Near record to record highs will
be possible ahead of this cold front based on the expected depth
of the mixed layer and the forecast temperatures across southwest
Kansas in the 850mb and 700mb level at 21z Friday and 00z
Saturday. In addition to these warm temperatures it will be windy
and dry which will result in elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions, mainly west of highway 183. The lowest
afternoon relative humidity values are currently expected be south
and southwest of Dodge City.

Friday night the cold front will surge south across western
Kansas. By early Saturday morning the NAM and GFS model soundings
both indicated 40 to 50 knot 900mb to 850mb winds spreading across
western Kansas behind this front along with a tight surface
pressure gradient. Saturday morning will be very windy and cold.
Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph and lows in the low to mid
30s can be expected Saturday morning. Wind chills of 20 to 25
degrees will also be possible in many locations. Post frontal
precipitation chances Friday night not completely out of the
question at this time but currently any precipitation will be
light and mainly confined to north central Kansas based on the mid
level moisture and lift ahead of an upper level trough that will
cross western Kansas during the overnight hours.

The coldest air behind this cold front early this weekend is
forecast to stay east of western Kansas as the surface high
crosses the central Plains. Across western Kansas this weekend a
westerly down slope flow will return and erode this cold air from
west to east. High temperatures this weekend are currently
expected to warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the upper
50s to near 60 on Sunday.

The warming trend will continue on Monday based on the warming
900mb to 850mb temperatures forecast by the GFS and ECMWF from 00z
Monday to 00z Tuesday. Monday night another cold frontal passage
is still on track to cross western Kansas which will bring another
round of cooler, more seasonal, temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds, with the strongest winds this
afternoon. Low level moisture over the southern plains is expected
to surge northward but should stay mainly east of the TAF sites.
But KHYS may experience CIGS as low as 050 after 03z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Elevated to near critical fire danger levels possible Friday
afternoon. Gusty southwesterly winds and dry air can be expected
ahead of a cold front which will be moving south across Nebraska
and northern Kansas during the day on Friday. Gusty southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph along with relative humidity values falling
back into the 17 to 25 percent range can be expected for areas
west of highway 183. The lower relative humidity values Friday
afternoon currently appear to be located south and southwest of
Dodge City near the Oklahoma border. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

Windy and dry conditions will continue through the weekend period.
Limited to elevated fire danger levels will continue for much of
western Kansas Saturday and again on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  47  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  64  43  78  36 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  72  46  79  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  69  44  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  44  74  39 /   0   0   0  20
P28  61  48  80  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert



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