Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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434
FXUS63 KDDC 210533
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1133 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

A southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains as
an amplified upper level trough of low pressure moves eastward across
the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a near stationary frontal
boundary extends from southwest Kansas northeastward into northeast
Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Tonight is the calm before the storm. Generally tranquil
conditions with light winds. The upper level trof that is to our
west will move closer through the overnight period. Low level
stratus and drizzle is expected to develop from Nebraska southward
into Kansas along the strengthening 850-hPa baroclinic zone. Some
freezing drizzle will be possible by morning as well, mainly
across the I70 corridor. Overnight mins are expected to range from
the 20s northwest to 30s southeast.

For tomorrow, attention then turns to the evening hours as the
storm finally begins to eject out across Kansas. A trowal is
expected to develop northwest of the 700-hPa cyclone, which right
now, looks mainly to remain across northwest Kansas and into
Nebraska. Significant frontogenesis and isentropic lift is
expected in this area with heavy snows. Our northwest zones will
flirt with the southeast edge of the snow axis. Have 1-3" storm
total snow amounts within the advisory area. The advisory still
looks on track.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The storm system will be exiting the area early Monday.
Significant winds are expected in the wake of the system. Will
have to watch out for the potential of reaching high wind warning
criteria, but right now it does not look like to be a slam dunk.
Regardless, N to NW winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph is
possible with blowing snow, especially within the advisory area.
The synoptic system does have rather significant cold air
associated with it, so higher snow ratios with a lighter/fluffy
snow appears reasonable attm.

Beyond Monday, winds will weaken Tuesday as high pressure moves
across the area. Right now, the temperatures across the northwest
zones are probably too warm. This is particularly true if the 1-3"
forecast snow amounts are realized. Elsewhere, 40s are expected.
The overall synoptic pattern Wednesday onwards is a dry pattern
per the EC. A large amplitude trof is possible next Friday.
however, this system might remain north of the forecast area.
Temperatures ahead of this wave look rather warm with widespread
50s likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Low level stratus is expected to develop behind a frontal boundary
as it begins to shift slowly southward across western Kansas
overnight. IFR cigs are expected to develop in the vicinity of
KHYS initially, then spread southward to KGCK and KDDC toward
daybreak. KLBL may see IFR cigs generally after 12Z. Additionally,
light drizzle and areas of fog are expected to develop behind the
front increasing the potential for IFR vsbys in the vicinity of
KHYS, KGCK, and KDDC early Sunday morning. Variable winds 5 to
15kt will persist across southwest and portions of central Kansas
through late Sunday morning as the aforementioned frontal boundary
extending from southwest Kansas into northeast Kansas moves slowly
southward during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  49  24  45 /   0  40  40  10
GCK  27  38  23  44 /  10  70  70  10
EHA  31  46  21  48 /   0  60  30   0
LBL  33  51  24  47 /   0  30  40   0
HYS  27  40  26  40 /  10  70  80  30
P28  35  58  29  48 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson



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