Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181701
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1201 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
slowly drift southeastward from near Dodge City and Larned and into
parts of south central Kansas before gradually dissipating towards
sunrise. These storms have formed as an outflow boundary from an MCS
across the Wichita area moved across western Kansas.

Upper level ridging will re-establish across the Central Plains with
a surface trough of low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies. Warmer air is forecast to move into much of western Kansas
today with 850mb temps pushing to around 30C at Dodge City. This is
about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than yesterday and surface highs
should respond with highs around 100 degrees. Only problem to
reaching the Century mark is some high based storms could develop in
the afternoon. A weak cold front will also drop into far northern
Kansas and across Hays by afternoon with south winds becoming north
to northeasterly. This boundary could be the focus for thunderstorm
development and have gone with around a 30 percent chance between
Dodge City and Hays later this afternoon and tonight. Inverted V
type forecast soundings could again give us some gusty and strong
outflow winds in thunderstorms. Severe weather, however, is not
expected with weak fairly weak mid and upper level winds.  Overnight
lows look to be in upper 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke






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