Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 191759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Convection from the overnight MCS is still trying to move south
into the CWA early this afternoon, but not finding much success
(given the strong cap over the region). However will maintain a
mention of VCTS/VCSH for most sites through the late afternoon/
early evening as outflow boundaries (moving south) and the sea-
breeze (moving north) possibly interact. Thereafter, much drier
conditions will prevail as NE winds develop overnight/early to-
morrow morning and persist. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

Early morning radar imagery shows Northeast Texas area showers/
thunderstorms developing and moving southward, and some of this
activity and/or its remnants/boundaries should work their way into
our area during the day today. Could also see some development
near the coast along a possible sea breeze boundary this
afternoon. Will continue to go with only 20% to 30% POPs and
adjust upward if needed as we see how everything unfolds. It is
possible that some of this activity could linger on into the
evening hours. Have low rain chances near the coast beginning on
Tuesday, then gradually raise the chances (lowest northwest and
highest southeast) for the remainder of the week as we wait to see
how everything unfolds with the broad area of low pressure near
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane
Center`s most recent Tropical Weather Outlook continues to say
that gradual development of this system is expected when it moves
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico later today and
Tuesday where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form
(80% chance of formation through 48 hours and a 90% chance through
5 days). Models continue to show different scenarios on how this
will all evolve, and this will probably persist until we get
better system organization for the models to handle, hopefully
some time later today if the reconnaissance flight can
investigate. There could be significant changes to our forecast
over the next several days. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      93  75  94  73  95 /  30  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  75  95  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  80  90  79  89 /  20  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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