Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210439
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR at the start of the 21/06Z TAFs followed by some mostly MVFR late
night/early morning cloudiness and patchy fog. Becoming VFR mid-morning
then staying VFR on into the evening hours. Could see some gusty SSW
winds in the late morning through afternoon hours too. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

UPDATE...
For the most part, the forecast is on track, with only cosmetic
changes to keep things in line with forecast trends. Though
temperatures today fell just a bit shy of highs, requiring a tweak
to evening temp trends earlier, think that with onshore flow, it
will have no real impact on the forecast lows overnight. Indeed,
ended up nudging lows up ever so slightly along the coast as
overnight winds should be a little bit stronger tonight.

Inherited weather forecast brought in patchy fog for much of the
area around sunrise, and with some low level moisture in place
underneath a very dry, subsident cap, this seems reasonable. If
anything, short range guidance this evening suggests the forecast
is too aggressive near the coast, and maybe even inland, as well.
But, given the environment and relatively low impacts, will keep
the patchy fog area conservatively large for now. Think those low,
moist, cool spots that fog easily should manage at least some
ground fog.

Tomorrow, HRRR soundings suggest we come fairly close to breaking
the cap in the mid-afternoon. While intriguing, precipitable water
is between the 25th and 50th percentile (using LCH and CRP as
climatological proxies), and there is precious little CAPE to be
had, even if the cap is defeated as those high morning dewpoints
look to mix out some. All in all, the dry and quite warm forecast
looks solid at this time and seems unlikely to change until the
end of the week.

Luchs

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

MARINE...
Light onshore flow will continue for the bays and coastal waters
through Wednesday, occasionally strengthening to near caution
criteria each night across the offshore waters. Strengthening
onshore flow ahead of an approaching storm system may result in
caution or possibly advisory flags on Thursday and Friday as winds
and seas build. Latest guidance suggests the associated cold front
will stall inland and not make it off the coast. Since this has been
trending this way for the past 24-36 hours, went ahead and adjusted
wind directions to reflect that scenario and kept onshore flow
going through the weekend.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      63  85  64  84  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              65  84  65  85  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  78  68  78  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42


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