Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161600
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO SE TX WILL LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
RAISED SKY COVER IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...THE FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS. 13/31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR TODAY. EXPECT SCT/BKN 4000-5000 FOOT DECK NEAR THE COAST TO
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING AT NEARBY TAF SITES. NORTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS...A LITTLE HIGHER AND GUSTY EARLY NEAR THE
COAST. HIGH CLOUDS OUT WEST WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE OUT OF THE NE/ENE.
TAFS HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. IF CEILINGS
(5000-7000 FEET) DO NOT DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT THEM TO DO
SO ON WEDNESDAY. ANY DEVELOPING RAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF AT AREA TAF
SITES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES C WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER PWAT AIR WILL
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE
NORTH. THIS MEANS THAT THE CLEARING LINE MIGHT NOT MAKE IT
THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES (SUCH AS JACKSON) THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE INTO
CANADA WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY RETURN (ESP. WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS). PWATS WILL ALSO RISE RAPIDLY FROM LESS THAN
0.4" TODAY TO NEAR 1.20" BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL ALSO COMMENCE WEDNESDAY WITH GFS 300 K SURFACE SHOWING BEST
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY.

ON THURSDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE SUPPORTS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEING IN A RRQ WHILE PVA IS
ALSO OCCURRING. NOT SURPRISINGLY GFS OMEGA VALUES INDICATE
WIDESPREAD LIFT STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHING EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.50"
WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LIFT AND MOISTURE HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER FOR
FRIDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY WITH SLOW CLEARING OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
BE QUICK TO RETURN SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.

THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THANKS
TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE EURO AND GFS DIFFER TUESDAY WITH
AM UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECASTED TO DIVE SOUTH. THE EURO IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE LOW SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH ALLOWING A
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS IS NOT AGGRESSIVE AND A
BIT SLOWER. 23

MARINE...
CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST...AND THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH...AND
AT THIS TIME THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY. BEHIND
FRIDAY`S FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG
WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH CAUTION LEVELS...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  43  54  52  65 /   0   0  30  60  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  44  59  55  70 /   0   0  20  50  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  53  62  61  69 /   0   0  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



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