Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 131613
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1013 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Forecast is, for the most part on track. High clouds are streaming
across the area, and have had to adjust cloud cover accordingly.
Because of this, have also nudged temperatures down, but only
slightly as high clouds should only have a limited impact on solar
radiation. This may help keep relative humidity up a touch higher
but impact-wise not much difference for fire interests.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure is centered just to our west early this morning
and is bringing light/calm winds to our entire area. After a cold
start to the morning with some high clouds streaming across the area
from the west, look for temperatures to warm into the 60s and winds
to come back around to the south and southwest this afternoon as the
surface high moves off to the east. Tonight will be not as cold as
we await for the arrival/passage of our next cold front during the
day tomorrow. There will be no rain with the front, but some rain
might develop behind the boundary late Thursday through Friday with
the lowest chances near the coast (dry well inland) and the higher
chances offshore. Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the
front as high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. Eyes
then turn toward our southwest and west over the weekend as a storm
system organizes and moves across the area. Models differ on the
timing/strength of this system with some solutions keeping the best
lift/dynamics near and off the coast Saturday through Saturday night
while other solutions bring some impressively strong lift/dynamics
across parts of our area Saturday night through Sunday morning (see
SPC`s Day 4-8 Convective Outlook). Went ahead and raised weekend
rain chances a little bit more with this morning`s forecast package,
and we`ll probably end up needing to carry much higher POPs. At
this time, it looks like the first half of next week will be mostly
on the dry side with near normal temperatures. Some models are
showing a arctic cold/wintry mix moving into the state over the
holiday weekend. Model changes are likely, and we`ll be watching
to see how everything evolves.  42

MARINE...
Pressure gradient weakens today and expect a continued decline in
winds/seas through Thurs. A cold from twill push off the coast Thurs
evening and northerly winds will gradually increase to around 25kt
after midnight into Friday morning. Small Craft Advisories will be
required. Look for areas of ran to develop behind the front as well.

Unsettled wx continues in the waters into the weekend. A quick,
strengthening onshore flow is expected early Sat. Elevated winds,
seas and increasing shower/storm coverage is expected in advance of
an approaching upper disturbance. (Can`t rule out some sea fog in
advance either). This disturbance should trek off to the east early
Sunday taking most of the precip with it and allowing a weak
training frontal boundary to make its way into the waters. 47

AVIATION...
VFR for the next 30+ hours. Just some cirrus streaming overhead. 47

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist once again today with RH`s bottoming out
between 25-30% this afternoon. Winds speeds will be 5-15mph, so Red
Flag Warnings are not anticipated. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  41  63  37  58 /   0   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)              62  44  65  41  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            60  53  67  47  57 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25



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