Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 251627
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(AND ITS OUTFLOWS) THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT FCST WITH THIS UPDATE
AS WE SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH POPS/TEMPS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENERGY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SLIDING DOWN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
NORTHEASTERN CONVECTION...WILL BE ENTERING OUR HEATED AND STILL
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (~2 INCH PWS) FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
PROGGED BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMICS ARE RIPE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG...TO BORDERLINE SEVERE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
INVERTED-V NATURE TO SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF A WIND THREAT.
ALTHOUGH OF NOT MUCH USE OF LATE...SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING THAT HAS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT DECENTLY THIS MORNING
..SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO SOME DEGREE...DEVELOP MID-
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND SWATH STORM
CLUSTERS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERING WE
ARE WITHIN AN UNWORKED OVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY REACHING OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE BEST HEAT-OF-THE DAY
TIME FRAME POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE...WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE BAIT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO
AND TAKE POPS UP TO MODERATE CHANCE.

REGION REMAINS WITHIN THIS NORTHERN FLOW PATTERN AT MID-WEEK WITH
THE COOLEST MID-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD OFF FROM ADVECTING IN UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY...OR ONCE WINDS VEER MORE AROUND TO THE EAST. ONCE THIS
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION WANES...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN
DRY PER THE SLOW EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ASSERTING ITS
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL
SPELL SUBSEQUENT DAILY HOT CONDITIONS. LESSENED HUMIDITY WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE CERTAINLY
FELT IN THE EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...OVERNIGHT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOW 60S IN THE NOTORIOUS COOL SPOTS. DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR INTERIOR
AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES STICKING CLOSE
TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
DESERT SW RIDGING BEGINS TO SCOOT A BIT WEST AND TAP INTO A RELATIVELY
HIGHER NEAR 1.5 INCH AIR MASS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  95  68  98  68 /  20  10  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  95  69  96  71 /  20  10  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  78  92  80 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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