Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261751
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1251 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY GRAPHICALLY DEPICTS THE LARGE POOL
OF DRY AIR DESCENDING OVER SETX AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY PRE-DAWN MVFR
VSBY AT KLBX...KCLL AND KCXO. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
1023 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI RIDGING DOWN THROUGH SETX WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR SW COASTAL WATERS AND CRP CWA.
THE DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A MIX OF CU/AC
BECOMING SCATTERED OVER THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. DRYING AIRMASS
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID 90S TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GALVESTON EVEN GETTING INTO THE LOWER 90S. VERY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
OVER THE PAST DAY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A
TOUCH EAST WITH NORTHERN AMPLIFICATION...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL BE ADVECTING IN A NEAR 1 INCH PWAT
AIR MASS FROM LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHER THAN
ONE LONE SHOWER OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN MARINE ZONE...THE
RADAR IS QUIET AND THE CONTINUED EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY REGIONAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RESIDENT DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL
LINGER ON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY (PER A REINFORCING NORTHEASTERN
FLOW PATTERN) WILL ALLOW DAYS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO THE 90S AND
ACHIEVE AVERAGE MIDDLE 90S...EXTREMES WILL CENTER OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS MAY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BEST BE FELT OR ENJOYED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE INTERIOR MID-UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG COAST WILL
BE MOST REALIZED IN AVERAGE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS NORTHERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...PLEASANT LATE WEEK WEATHER UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A VARIABLE BREEZE.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH/CENTRAL CONUS-CENTERED RIDGE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEEKEND WEATHER...SLOWLY LOWERING MID-
UPPER HEIGHTS WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. THIS WILL THICKEN UP CLOUDS AND PROVIDE
AN UPTICK TO EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN COUNTY/MARITIME RAIN PROBABILITIES.
BY MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW...OR ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT...
WILL DETERMINE NEXT WEEK`S CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS OF NOW...THE GFS
RETROGRADES THIS LOW BACK TOWARDS THE BIG BEND WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EXPANDS IT UP THE COASTLINE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THIS LATTER MORE WET SOLUTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AT LEAST HIGH END OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EACH SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON FROM AROUND TUESDAY ON THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THUS...AFTER 4 TO 5 DAYS OF MAINLY CLEAR...WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER...
THIS SOUTHERN-BASED UPPER LOW SCENARIO WILL TRANSITION NEXT WEEK`S THEME TO
CLOUDIER...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID WITH HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. 31

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME SCT TSTMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF
FREEPORT THIS MORNING AS WELL. GRADIENT/WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE
DAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAK SEA BREEZE TRY TO MOVE ONSHORE
TOWARD EVNG. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE THURS NIGHT AND PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED. 47

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING AS
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE.
VFR CONDITIONS & MCLR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO THURS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  97  67  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  96  71  97  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  92  80  92  80 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...44



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