Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242200
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMPLY A MELANCHOLY COLD AND OVERCAST DAY ACROSS THE REGION...
AREAWIDE TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 40 F UNDER A LIGHT
BITING NORTH BREEZE. A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH INTO WESTERN TEXAS
TOMORROW MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHARP 5H TROUGH WILL CLIP
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...PULLING IN EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR (IN RELATION TO WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE). 85H
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL TO BETWEEN -1 AND -4 DEG C WITH THE
COLDEST NAM AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS LOWERING 1000-85H THICKNESS
VALUES TO AROUND 1300 M OR SLIGHTLY LESS. THE SUITE ALL DEVELOP
TWO MAIN SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE 03Z THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED JUST OFF
TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST...ONE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND THE
OTHER OFFSHORE. WHEN EXAMINING THE THICKNESS PROFILES AND THE
NATURE OF WHAT IS PROGGED TO BE A COLDER SOMEWHAT SATURATED MID-
LOWER PROFILE THROUGH 15Z...THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVE A CHANCE TO
PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. IF THE
COOLEST MID-LOWER LEVEL AIR RIDES IN DURING THE TIME OF BEST
SATURATION (WITHIN PROFILE) OTHER ELEMENTS...SUCH A BETTER CIRRUS
ICE SEEDING AND A DRY MID-LAYER THAT WILL EVAPORATIVELY COOL/WET
BULB TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...WILL PLAY INTO
INCREASING A SNOW OR SLEET EVENT FROM GENERALLY A LINE NORTH OF
MADISONVILLE TO GROVETON. THUS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO COVER THE
MINOR IMPACTS OF SLIPPERY MORNING TRAVEL IF THERE IS LOW SNOW/SLEET
/ICE ACCUMULATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMES ONE OF WEAK
TROUGHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN STAYS ATOP AN
ENTRENCHED COOLER LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST-EAST WIND REGIME. THUS...
AFTER TOMORROW`S SHORT LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD AND PARTIALLY
CLOUDIER LATE WORK WEEK AS MORNINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
SLUGGISHLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S (AT BEST).

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK WEATHER THEME WILL BE MORE MILD...
SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT BAJA UPPER TROUGH. WEAK PVA/SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
PASSING UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
WEEK WORK RAIN CHANCES TO MODERATE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS. THIS WARM
SECTOR TYPE SCENARIO WILL AFFORD INCREASING MOISTURE/OVERCAST AT
PERIOD`S END WITH THE POSITIVE BEING THAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH AFTERNOONS
WARMING INTO THE "BALMY" AVERAGE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S! IN THE
MEANTIME...STAY WARM! 31

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EAST OF KBRO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN AND MODERATE TO STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED SWELLS
AND INCREASED TIDE LEVELS SAT/SUN. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      33  51  35  55  32 /  50  50  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  53  37  57  36 /  50  50  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            43  53  44  56  43 /  50  50  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HOUSTON...MADISON...TRINITY.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43



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