Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET RADAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY UP ALONG THE RED RIVER. A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE WRN CWA (PER CURRENT WV IMAGERY) NOT GIVING US ANY RETURNS AT
THIS TIME...AND SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CAP HAS SETTLED OVER IN
OVER THE AREA. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HOLD TODAY AS
THE NEXT TROF/UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CALI BAJA AREA.
JUST KEEPING SOME ISO POPS FOR THE NRN ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH
POPS RETURNING AREAWIDE THURS/FRI.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TX (WHERE PCPN HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT) IS PROGGED TO SAG DOWN INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THURS MORNING....STALLING IN/AROUND I-10 THURS AFTN. THIS
LINGERING LINE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS EMBED-
DED DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PROGS OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS...A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PWS APPROACHING 2" ARE INDICATING THERE
COULD BE PROBLEMS IF THE STORMS/HEAVY RAINS DO FORM.

SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS ON SAT AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT/MOVES NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST DEEP-
ENS FURTHER. AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP A GOOD CHC OF STORMS IN THE
FCST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS NEAR THE COAST PICKING UP BUT SHOULD COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
AS S/W RIDGING ALOFT BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE S/W TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH N TX THIS MORNING. LIGHTER ONSHORE WIND REGIME REMAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SAGS SOUTH
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SE AND EVEN EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY AND GRADIENT
QUICKLY INCREASES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SCEC
WIND CONDITIONS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SEAS
SHOULD BE REACHING 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (SAT-SUN) MAY BE GOOD SAILING WITH THE
WINDS BUT BEACHGOERS MAY FACE STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS BY A FOOT OR SO. SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER JET BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS 800-2000FT FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS NEAR THE
COAST HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THESE LOWER CIGS THROUGH 14Z
THEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING CIGS SHOULD RISE BECOMING CIGS AROUND
3500- 4000FT THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE
STRONGER CAP NEAR 700MB AND THIS LINES UP WITH AMDAR SOUNDINGS
INBOUND TO IAH THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS TODAY. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE CLL/UTS BUT
CAP MAY BE TO STRONG WITHOUT A LL FOCUS FOR STORMS.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  83  69  84 /  20  20  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  73  86  71  85 /  10  10  40  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  78  83  76  83 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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