Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141737
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1237 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH 21-23Z ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW BETWEEN THE CITY AND THE ISLAND. BACKGROUND
NORTHERLIES IN THE 20-30G35KT RANGE...WHEN LAID UPON SMALLER SCALE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...WILL MAKE FOR VERY TURBULENT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FROM NOW (1730Z) THROUGH 22Z...WITH
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL RAIN BUT NORTHERLIES WILL STAY UP TO AROUND
20-25KTS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO A BLOWING LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL
LIKELY LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING VISIBILITIES. ACTIVITY WILL
COME TO AN END DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...SCT250 DECK
MAY THIN OUT TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE
CELL SINKING INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY COLDSPRING TO BRENHAM AND
EXPECTED TO MAKE GOOD SWD PROGRESS AND OFF THE GLS COASTLINE BY
EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT CLL ARE CURRENTLY 24 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHERE THEY STARTED AT SUNRISE AND EXPECT SIMILAR TEMP DROPS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

12Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP AND LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT IAH CONTINUE
TO SHOW CAP IN PLACE. NOT LIKELY THIS WILL BE OVERCOME ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TO SEE SFC BASED TSTMS. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND INCOMING LFQ OF JET WOULD STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS
WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT OF HAIL (BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL). SEEING
ACTIVITY BLOSSOM TO OUR WEST AND ANTICIPATE INCREASED COVERAGE
OVER SE TX IN THE COMING HOURS.

ONGOING FCST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE 1ST PERIOD BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      35  63  37  70  55 /  10   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              38  63  38  70  57 /  10   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            45  62  50  66  62 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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