Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281558
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
958 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SFC OBS AT 15Z SHOWED TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COAST TO UPPER 30S FROM KCLL TO KUTS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PRETTY
GOOD CLOUD COVER. WITH NE/E LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...DO NOT THINK
TEMPS WILL INCREASE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MESO MODELS
SEEM TO THINK LIKEWISE. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW OVER THE LOWER TX COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
UP ALONG THE GULF COAST. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS
FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ADJUST RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY SO TEMP
FORECAST WILL BE CHALLENGING. WHILE TEMPS DO NOT WARM MUCH DURING
THE DAY...POSSIBLE TO GET TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
COASTAL SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SCENARIO WILL LOWER DECKS...INCREASE PERIODS
OF EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN (SHOWERS)...AND THICKEN UP HAZE/FOG
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CATEGORY TODAY WILL BE MVFR...WITH A
GRADUAL LOWERING INTO IFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (NORTH)
TO PAST MIDNIGHT (SOUTH) WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MASS RIDING OVER COOL NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
HEIGHTEN THE PROBABILITY FOR DENSE SEA FOG. THE THREAT FOR FOG
WILL BE HIGHER FROM MID SUNDAY ONWARD...OR WHEN A SOUTHERN GULF
MOIST AIR MASS REACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. A MODERATE EAST
WIND WILL SLOWLY VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF NORTHWARD MOVING LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED FROM GALVESTON TO
THE HOUSTON AREA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SOME NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LIGHT RAIN
HAS BEEN FALLING BETWEEN THE BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND CROCKETT. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE WEEKEND FORECAST. AS
OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROF
AXIS DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST AND DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT COLLEGE STATION)...THEY WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE AS WARM AS WAS ADVERTISED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOME OF IT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DENSE. THE FOG COULD
LAST A WHILE TOO. RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
(HIGHER CHANCES FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE COAST) AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UP NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES MIGHT GET CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LEVEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WE MIGHT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  42

MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN
ELEVATED SEAS...TIDE LEVELS HIGH AND STRENGTHEN THE RIP CURRENT.
THERE MAY BE A MINOR RUN UP OF WATER OVER NOTORIOUSLY LOWER
SPOTS...OR ALONG MORE WESTWARD FACING BEACHES. A DEVELOPING WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS RECENTLY TAUNT EAST TO WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH TOMORROW AND VEER WEAKENING WINDS MORE ONSHORE.
SOUTHERLIES WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER CHILLED SHELF
WATERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA FOG AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      46  44  57  51  65 /  40  50  40  40  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  49  66  59  71 /  30  50  40  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            56  56  68  61  68 /  30  50  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39



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