Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 030349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS FOR THE UPDATE...OTHERWISE
FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES REQUIRED TONIGHT.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/
AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE 00Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT UPTICK WITH WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

AT 230 PM PRECIP HAS ALL BUT DEPARTED THE FAR SE COASTAL WATERS
AND JUST LEFT CHAMBERS COUNTY. WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW MIXING IN
LOW DEWPOINTS (DOWN INTO THE TEENS) AND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 6 PM NEAR HIGH
ISLAND.

COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING AND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE KS/OK/NWTX THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ARRIVE
IN SETX AROUND 2 AM WEDNESDAY NEAR CLL AND BE OFF THE COAST BY 8
AM OR SO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CAA AND USHER IN A CONTINUED
STREAM OF DRY AIR BUT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BY 7 TO 15
DEGREES THANKS TO THAT CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING 29-33 ACROSS THE
NORTH UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DRY DAY AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AND A LIGHT FREEZE
IN THE NORTHEAST AS LIGHT WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS CHALLENGING WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET INTERACTING WITH THE POLAR JET AND CREATING A
FAST MOVING S/W FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL
SATURATE THE MID LEVELS AND PROBABLY BRING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL IT BE TOO DRY UNDERNEATH AND THE AREA SEES LOTS OF
VIRGA AND LITTLE RAIN OR WILL THE EVAPORATING RAIN WET BULB DOWN
AND SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND THE AREA GETS WIDESPREAD COLD
RAIN? 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE FASTER NOW AND END THE PRECIP MUCH
EARLIER. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A DIVERSE SPREAD WHICH IS
PROBABLY A GOOD THING GIVEN THE FEATURES THAT COME TOGETHER FOR IT
ARE STILL WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND POORLY SAMPLED. SO HAVE
TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN A LITTLE AND ENDING A LITTLE EARLIER
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FOR TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
STAY TUNED AND EXPECT SOME CHANGES. THE PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
ONE THAT BRINGS DOWN ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY
AS ALL OF THIS WEEKENDS UNUSUALLY STRONG JET GETS WRAPPED UP INTO
AN EAST COAST TROUGH.
45

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND SEAS WILL BUILD
THROUGH THURSDAY. CAUTION FLAGS ARE LIKELY...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT
BE NEEDED. THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE SEAS REMAIN
ROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
42

FIRE...
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED NORTH WINDS (GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH
AND GUSTY)...VERY LOW HUMIDITIES (AVERAGING AROUND 20-25% IN THE
AFTERNOON)...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS
TIME...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND/OR RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED MAINLY DUE TO WINDS NOT REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  57  33  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  63  36  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  62  43  58  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



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