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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141723
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.AVIATION...
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...IT
WILL BE HARD/TRICKY TO TIME IF/WHEN ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY
OF AREA TAF SITES. DECIDED TO KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS (ROUGHLY 22Z-02Z)
FOR THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTION AND FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER EVERYTHING WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME OF OUR RURAL SITES (LBX/SGR) WHERE
MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. ANTICIPATING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HOTTER TODAY...SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE HARDER TO MIX OUT
THE DEWPOINTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HEAT INDEX READINGS
TO REACH THE 102 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BY NOON AND THEN HOLD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY HYDRATED.

CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION IS STOUT AND DON`T EXPECT
MUCH OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED STORM THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EAST THOUGH IS A DIFFERENT BEAST. MOIST PLUME CAN BE SEEN MOVING
THROUGH LA WITH PW AT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL THIS MORNING
COINCIDENT WITH VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MODELS ALL DEPICT
THIS MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS TODAY (SLOWLY) AND PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS 92-93 DEGREE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS YIELDS CAPE OF 2500+/LI -5 TO -6/PW 1.8/DCAPE 1400+
WITH A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE RICHER
MOISTURE TO GET HERE BUT WHEN IT DOES GET INTO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING IT EXPECTING STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
OTHER THAN TO UP APPARENT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER POPS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THE PACKAGE LOOKS ON TARGET.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEARBY CONSISTS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER OK AND A LOW/WEAKNESS NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA WITH SE TX
SITUATED IN BETWEEN BOTH AXIS. ALSO LOOKING AT AN OUTFLOW/BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHING SW FROM MS AND INTO LA.

DECIDED TO NUDGE POPS UP A TOUCH TODAY ESP N/NE AREAS. THE
BOUNDARY DESCRIBED ABOVE SHOULD MOVE INTO ENE TX & CNTL/SW LA
LATER TODAY. PW`S OF 1.7-1.9" ARE FCST TO POOL SW OF THIS FEATURE
AND ACROSS OUR N/NE ZONES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TEMPS TO
EASILY CLIMB ABOVE CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF 90-92 DEGREES AND WOULD
EXPECT SOME ISO/SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. LI`S TO -8 AND CAPES >2000
J/KG ARE FCST AND SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILE SUGGESTING
POSSIBILITY OF DOWNBURSTS AND/OR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO DEVELOP. OVERALL COVERAGE MIGHT NOT BE ANYTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT BUT FEEL THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SVR STORMS IS PRUDENT
ACROSS AT LEAST NRN PARTS OF THE CWA FROM LATE AFTN-EARLY EVNG.

BOUNDARY TO THE EAST WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND EVENTUALLY WASHOUT
LATER SATURDAY BUT MIGHT BE WORTH WATCHING FOR A FOCUS FOR PRECIP
AGAIN DURING THE DAY.

THE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND OPENS UP AND TREKS ACROSS N TX AS A TROF
ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES SE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
INDICATES TAIL END OF TROF LINGERING NEAR THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
GFS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT BUT DOES SHOW WEAKER RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST. EITHER WAY, WOULD ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE/DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP TO REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 47

MARINE...
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE MARINE FCST AS THE LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE WEST WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE ON-
GOING PATTERN. NO ADVISORIES/FLAGS ANTICIPATED. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  76  95  75  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  80  89  80  90 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42