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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191241
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
741 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013


.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO AROUND 2000FT ALREADY THIS MORNING AND CLOUD
STREETS STARTING TO FORM IN THE WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO END BY
16Z AND GUSTY SSE WINDS TO 25KTS MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CIGS RETURN
TONIGHT BETWEEN 02-05Z FIRST NEAR THE COAST AND THEN EXPANDING
NORTH.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S CAN
BE OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BURN OFF. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH COLLEGE STATION TOPING OUT NEAR
95 DEGREES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

BY TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AND ALLOW FOR VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A WIDE SWATH OF PVA ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE GREATER
PRECIP TOTALS NORTHWARDS AS WELL. EITHER WAY WIDESPREAD WAA AND
PVA SPELLS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL THAT THE CAP CURRENTLY AT 850MB WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
TUESDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LI`S APPROACHING
-7. STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT SHORTWAVE COOLING WILL BE ABLE
TO ERASE THE CAP BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT AND ALLOW
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL DEPEND UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE UP AND AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL GO AHEAD
WITH SCEC FOR ALL BUT THE 20-60NM WATERS WHERE WILL GO WITH
SCA...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT RETURN
OVERNIGHT.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  92  73  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  73  91  73  90 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  73  79  74  80 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...45