Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 200442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

06Z TAF Discussion...lone shower on radar will probably pass just
north of KGLS but included VCSH just in case. Otherwise main
concern will be any restriction to visibility. SREF
ceiling/visibility probabilities hint at MVFR/IFR CIGS developing
mainly west/northwest of Houston for the morning. This seems to
match up well with trends and guidance. Hi-Res Mesoscale guidance
still showing possible SHRA/TSRA developing late morning through
the early afternoon. TAF will keep mention of VCSH but these cells
could very easily become thunderstorms. Given scattered coverage,
best to wait and see how forecast evolves with weak back door
front pushing into the area. Convection should end in the evening,
and expect VFR cigs for the rest of the night.




No major changes planned for the evening forecast update. A few
showers continue to push into Chambers County/the eastern
nearshore waters along an outflow boundary and added a mention of
isolated rain chances through the remainder of the evening in
response. Otherwise, patchy fog development expected again
overnight with best chances west and southwest of the Houston
metro as slightly drier air associated with a broad surface high
stretching from Louisiana to the Appalachians pushes into eastern
Texas. Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s inland to low 80s
along the coast.



00Z TAF discussion...latest radar imagery shows a few isolated
storms near KUTS/KCXO/KSGR. Storms are moving away from these
terminals so any aviation impacts should end in the next hour.
Storms over east Texas could propagate SW into SE Texas over the
next hour or two but storms are pulse type and may not persist.
Patchy fog and pockets of low ceilings will be possible again for
tomorrow morning. Several hi-res model guidance showing the
possibility of SHRA/TSRA moving across the area late morning
through early afternoon. TAFs will maintain VCSH going forward but
may need to monitor new model guidance supporting TSRA. Activity
will still be isolated to widely scattered so not a given that
terminals will have convection.



College Station (CLL)      76  96  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              76  96  74  96  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            81  90  80  90  79 /  10  20  10  10  10




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