Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The initial period will be characterized by a persistent onshore
surface flow regime that, while not producing any consequential
weather impacts for the time being, will set the stage for our
next chance at widespread rainfall (and potentially some strong
storms) on Thursday. Lee cyclogenesis along the CO/KS border will
continue to strengthen the synoptic pressure gradient over the
Central CONUS today as the system continues to deepen, thus
allowing for further increases in both temperature and near-
surface moisture both today and tomorrow. Afternoon high
temperatures should increase across the board by about 5 degrees,
reaching the upper 70s in most locations and the lower 70s along
the coast. This will be accompanied by an increase in surface dew
point values back into the 60s area wide by this evening as total
PW values increase to around 1.25 in. Overnight lows, aided by
increases in low-level cloud coverage, should remain confined to
the low to mid 60s. We could see some patchy fog development,
particularly near the coast, though recent increases in water
temperatures should prevent another significant dense sea fog
event.

Conditions on Wednesday will continue to reflect the warming and
moistening trend as the approach of a surface cold front
associated with the aforementioned low draws closer. Persistent
WAA, along with a slight southwestward shift in midlevel winds,
will produce highs in the 80s for most locations. HiRes models
continue to show some (very) spotty shower coverage during the
morning/early afternoon hours as a midlevel shortwave traverses
the region, but a stout capping inversion at around 800mb should
greatly inhibit the development of any widespread convection (for
the time being). Overnight lows will experience a similar boost as
the daytime highs due to WAA as well as further increases in
cloud cover. Most locations should sit at or just below 70.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A stormy weather pattern is expected to set up Thursday into
Friday with a wet pattern possibly continuing through much of the
upcoming weekend.

On Thursday, we are expecting to have an uptick in southerly flow
while an low level jet develops over Southeast Texas. Winds of
10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph is possible. Moisture transport
will be on the rise with PWs ranging between 1.3 and 1.6 inches in
the afternoon. Instability will be increasing, in particular
during the afternoon and evening. In addition, there will be some
mid to upper level disturbances moving overhead and a cold front
that is to push southeastward across Central Texas. The
combination overall would set the stage for the development of
showers and thunderstorms, probably starting in the afternoon on
Thursday given that capping might limit development during the
morning and early afternoon hours. As far as temperatures go, it
will feel "muggy" out there, with highs in the 80s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

As the cold front approaches Southeast Texas, we could see a rise
in shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday evening into Friday.
Forecast soundings also show somewhat favorable conditions for
strong to possibly severe storms sometime Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning, in particular for areas near and around the brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region. Main threats at this time would be
strong damaging winds and hail. The SPC Severe Weather Outlook
for Thursday into Friday morning currently has a Slight Risk (2
out of 5 level) for areas north along a line from Burleson County
northeastward through Trinity County. A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5
level) has been placed for areas south of this line to just north
of the I-10 corridor. The cold front is expected to push into
Southeast Texas sometime Friday morning. There are still a few
model disagreements on the placing and timing of the cold front,
but it is still expected to stall somewhere near the Texas
coastline and with an unstable airmass in place, we could see a
few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.

Conditions could remain stormy as we move into the weekend with a
coastal trough possibly developing on Saturday. This would
maintain good amounts of moisture over our region as a few more
upper level disturbances and vort maxes move aloft, while the
frontal boundary meanders nearby. Rain chances decrease Sunday as
the front finally moves further into the Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure builds over Texas Monday and the drier cooler air moving
into Southeast Texas could bring our high temperatures back into
the 60s.

As mentioned before, there are still a few model inconsistencies
especially near the end of the forecast period; Thus, expect a
few more adjustments made to the forecast in the next few days.
Regardless, be weather ready and continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Aside from a few intermittent instances of patchy fog, VFR
conditions will begin the TAF period and will prevail into the
afternoon with S/SE winds remaining just below 10 knots with a few
higher gusts possible at times. Increasing moisture will provide
favorable conditions for the development of MVFR and later IFR
cigs after sunset tonight, with the potential for yet another
round of fog development near the immediate coast. Light and
variable winds persist overnight, with south winds developing
again after sunrise on Wednesday.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds are expected to prevail through
the end of the week and may flirt with caution levels at times.
Seas are expected to increase during the second half of the week.
Conditions could become favorable for periods of patchy sea fog
across the bays and coastal Gulf waters Tuesday into the end of
the work week. Rising water temperatures could limit the
development, however. Chance for showers and storms will return
Thursday and could continue through the end of the upcoming
weekend as a cold front moves across Southeast Texas as possibly
stalls near or over the coast. Higher winds and seas can be
expected in and around strong storms. Once the front pushes
further into the Gulf, winds will become northeasterly and
strengthen. Advisories may be required.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  63  83  69 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  77  65  84  70 /   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  72  66  77  67 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...24


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