Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 122048
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Little change has been made to the Southeast Texas forecast with
the afternoon package. Very warm afternoon high temperatures will
persist for the next several days as strong mid/upper level ridging
remains in control. The ridge breaks down late in the weekend as
the next longwave trough moves eastward across the Central Plains
and allows a strong cold front to move across our area on Sunday
and off the coast Sunday evening. Some showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible over the weekend as moisture
levels increase before the front`s arrival. A much drier air mass
moving into the area behind the front will bring rain chances back
to zero and will really cool temperatures down for at least the
first half of the week. A weak return flow off the Gulf looks to
set up toward the end of the week as surface high pressure weakens
and gradually moves off to the east resulting in gradually warming
temperatures.  42
&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds this afternoon will continue to become more
east to southeasterly as the surface ridge continues to shift NE out
of the region.  Should begin to see the moisture creep back in
Saturday and Sunday as onshore flow returns. Added moisture will
provide a better chance for showers and thunderstorms over the
weekend. A cold front moves across SE Texas and into the coastal
waters Sunday into Monday, and scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms out ahead of this front could move over the coastal
waters. Expect to see the wind shift to out of the north, ahead of
the frontal passage early Sunday. Moderate strength northerly winds,
should follow behind the front with wave heights increasing to 4 to
6 feet. SCEC conditions in the wake of the front are likely Sunday
night/Monday.

Tides remain elevated at 0.5-1.0 foot above MLLW.

Hathaway

&&

.CLIMATE...
A new record high temperature was set at Galveston this afternoon.
The high so far today (thru 330 PM) has been 88 degrees which breaks
the record of 87 degrees set in 2015.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017/

AVIATION...
Light and variable winds across all TAF sites this afternoon will
continue through the evening hours, periodically going calm. VFR
conditions again should prevail through the period, though a Cu
field has developed along the coast where the more saturated air
is located. This resulted in a BKN deck earlier over LBX, but
recent obs do show a rising trend, bringing conditions back to
VFR. SREF short term guidance is hinting at lower vis associated
with radiational cooling across CXO, SGR, LBX but not overly
confident in this solution. Hinted at the possibility of lower vis
due to BR at these sites, specifically between 09-13Z. Otherwise,
high pressure in control yet again on Friday.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      70  90  71  90  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              69  90  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            77  87  78  87  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/42



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