Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241219
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
719 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE TROUGH`S MOVEMENT...WHETHER
MORE EAST THAN NORTH...HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO BEGIN WITH
PROB30S. PRIMARILY VFR WITH EARLY DAY CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS STORMS...LOWERING THICKER CLOUD DECKS AS THE TROUGH AXIS/LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATTER THIS MORNING. BOTH THE
SMALLER SCALE AND LARGER SCALE MODELS ALL GENERATE EARLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS
WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING
MVFR CEILING. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...AND
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WILL CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR POSSIBLE
LINGERING ACTIVITY TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING HAS A DRY FORECAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN ALL EYES TURN TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COLD FRONT. WILL BE CARRYING GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO OUR WEST COMBINE WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE WARMING SIDE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. 42 &&

MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES WILL
TIGHTEN TODAY`S ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN
AFTERNOON SOUTHERLIES TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
..ALL WATER CAUTION THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING HOURS. A COUPLE OF CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WEEK WILL TEMPORARILY TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE GRADIENT...LIKELY PRODUCING
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST REACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WATER LEVELS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN A HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  67  84  69  84 /  30  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  67  83  70  83 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  71  79  73  79 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20
     NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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