Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242320
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
FOR CEILINGS AT KCLL FROM 12Z TO 15Z...AND VISIBILITY AT KSGR AND
KLBX BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE...BASICALLY VFR WITH THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PALACIOS TO ANGLETON TO BEAUMONT AS OF 3 PM CDT... SCOURING
OUT ONLY A TINY FRACTION OF THE EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD COVERING
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE REGION REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE
PROMOTING A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EXPECT
LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST... WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY/S... WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE UPPER
90S TO POSSIBLY 100.

THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND CENTERS AROUND THE
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY /ISSUED WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEED 108 DEGREES OR FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEED
103 DEGREES/. 3 PM CDT HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM 103 TO 107 ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND 100 TO 104 NORTH... SAVE FOR A FEW
ERRONEOUS READINGS FROM CROCKETT AND CLEVELAND AFTER COMPARING TO
SURROUNDING OBSERVATION SITES.

SIMILAR TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HEAT INDICES SATURDAY TO BE
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PEAK READINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
LARGELY DUE TO SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF TOMORROW
AND MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... EVEN WITH THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES DAYTIME MIXING
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE BORDER OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT THE HEAT... ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
VISITING FROM OUTSIDE OF THE REGION WHO ARE NOT ADJUSTED TO THE
SWEATY SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUMMERS... IS STILL DANGEROUS EVEN IF BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY... BUT SLIGHTLY LESS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ON SUNDAY /PWATS
SIMILAR TO TODAY/ SHOULD HELP MITIGATE AGAINST A MORE WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO LOSE SOME OF ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SHIFT WEST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A MORE WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES... WITH AN INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
STILL EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY WITH WINDS/SEAS INCREASING BRIEFLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CAUTION
LEVEL WINDS MIGHT BE BRIEFLY REACHED DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...
BUT FLAGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  76  99  77 /   0  10   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  99  78  99  78 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  81  92  82 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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