Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 240233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
933 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Mid level cloudiness and patchy areas of light rain ahead of an
upper level shortwave trough were affecting locations west of
College Station and Madisonville at 9:00 PM. The trajectory of the
rain areas on radar should stay west and north of the forecast
area through the remainder of the night. Even though some of the
high resolution models do hint at the possibility of light rain,
model forecast soundings show that the dry airmass will likely be
too much to overcome. The current forecast is on track and no
changes were made on the update.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/

Water vapor satellite imagery showing a short wave trough moving
into Texas from Mexico. This has allowed for high and mid level
cloud cover over much of Texas. Think this cloud cover should
continue tonight and into tomorrow. Ceilings may lower to mid
level heights tomorrow afternoon. Cloud cover should limit any fog
development even with winds becoming calm overnight. Moisture is
returning from the Gulf in the low levels but not enough to
support low ceilings.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016/

Another dry and pleasant afternoon is underway for Southeast
Texas, with 2 PM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 70s near
the Piney Woods to the low 80s along the Upper Texas Coast.
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered to broken mid and upper
level clouds continuing to overspread the region from the west as
a mid-level disturbance lifts towards the Rio Grande out of
Mexico, with a lower stratocumulus deck spreading north from the
Gulf as low level southeasterly winds have allowed from some
moisture to return this afternoon.

Consistent with the previous forecast, may see a few light
returns show up on radar this evening and overnight tonight as the
mid-level disturbance pushes closer to Central Texas but expect
dry conditions to continue for inland areas. Forecast soundings
from College Station, Houston, and Victoria show some modest top-
down saturation occurring (down to about 500 MB), but with a
persistent dry pocket between 850-500 MB anything that falls would
be virga and is not expected to reach the surface. Otherwise,
cloud cover and a gradual increase in low level moisture resulting
in overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s (almost 10 degrees
warmer than what was observed this morning).

Gradually returning low level moisture will also result in
increasing patchy morning fog potential Monday morning through the
upcoming week, especially in low-lying or sheltered areas. An
isolated shower or two will also be possible along the Upper Texas
Coast (and associated waters) with persistent onshore flow
promoting some weak speed/directional convergence, but keeping
rain chances at or under 20 PoPs through the remainder of the

Otherwise, another mid-level disturbance looks to reach the
Central and Southern Plains by Tuesday, sliding into the
Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. Latest forecast guidance is
keeping this system with a more northerly, progressive track away
from the region. This would keep any surface front associated with
this disturbance well north of the region, with dry conditions
persisting inland through the end of the week as upper ridging
builds across the Desert Southwest and spreads east into Texas.
Upper ridging will also encourage above normal temperatures to
continue through the remainder of the forecast, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s to low


With high pressure lingering to our east, we should continue to
see mostly light (to occasionally moderate) east to southeast
winds across our waters for the next several days. No flags are



College Station (CLL)      63  84  62  83  62 /  10  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)              62  84  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            71  82  72  82  72 /  10  10  10  10  10




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