Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS RECEDED ENOUGH SO THAT A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WAS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. A MID LEVEL DECK WAS
EDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD SE
TX TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS BOTH FORECAST
A VFR SCT TO BKN DECK TO FORM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION CONCERNS THURSDAY WILL BE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 15Z. THESE WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH AROUND 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SW LA. LIGHT SFC
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH AND DEW PTS HAVE CLIMBED A BIT FROM
LAST NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND INCHING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR BUT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTED SOME
SUB FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE FAR EAST AND NE ZONES. RAISED MIN
TEMPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND LOWERED TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
(KLBX) AND EASTERN ZONES.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURS NITE/FRIDAY
AND BRING THE AREA SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT OVER EAST TEXAS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS NE TX INTO ARKANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES SURGE TO
1.6 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MODEST CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG OR LESS BUT OTHER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK IMPRESSIVE
WITH HELICITY VALUES OVER 250. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ISSUED A SCEC FOR THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES THROUGH 09Z AS
EAST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS PERSIST AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      34  61  48  67  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              35  63  51  70  60 /   0  10  10  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            41  64  58  71  63 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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