Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND LAKE CHARLES REPORTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TO UNDER ONE INCH... BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
TAIL END OF H5 TROF STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO N TX
WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO SE TX TODAY...BUT DON`T THINK RAIN
CHANCES ARE WORTH MENTIONING.

QUICK LOOK AT BUOY & OIL RIG OBSERVATIONS OFFSHORE SHOW DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SLOWER
MOISTURE MODIFICATION THAN YESTERDAYS SOLNS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND
TRIM POPS BACK FOR SUNDAY...BUT LEAVE A 20% MENTION CLOSEST TO
THE COAST SHOULD WE SEE ANY ISO SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.

UPPER LOW SEEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE SE LA COAST IS STILL
FCST TO RETROGRADE WWD IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LATEST DATA
DEPICTS A TROF AXIS GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS TO S TX
MON-WED PUTTING AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA ON THE MORE
FAVORABLE SIDE FOR RAIN CHANCES (HIGHER CHANCES ALONG & EAST OF
THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR TUE/WED W/ MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE).

TROF/LOW MIGHT SLOWLY MEANDER BACK EAST THURS-SAT WHICH WOULD
REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE BUT NOT ENTIRELY ELIMINATE POPS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING/DETAILS ISN`T ALL THAT HIGH AND
AGREE W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES IN LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BELOW SUPERBLEND SUGGESTIONS FOR NOW. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR EAST. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE FCST EARLY SUN MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHCS WILL RE-
MAIN IN THE FCST INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK 41

AVIATION...
NOT EXPECTING TO DEVIATE FROM THE VFR TRENDS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WE COULD START SEEING LOWER CIGS/VIS BY LATE
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  72  94  73  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  71  93  73  94 /   0   0  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  79  90  79  89 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14



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