Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 250306
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
906 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
With the cold front currently moving off the coast, no issues are
expected for SE TX the rest of the night. CAA in the wake of this
front will prevail overnight..with much drier air moving into the
region for tomorrow. Current grids look to be on track and no big
changes are planned at this time. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

Another above normal day in terms of high temperatures. Still
forecasting to see high temperatures reach up into the mid 80s,
with the possibly breaking a few record max temperatures,
specifically Houston Hobby and Galveston this evening. The cold
front that has been pushing through SE TX should clear the
coastline in the next hour or so, with a wind shift out of the NW.
Strong NW winds will hold Friday night through Saturday allowing
for additional cold air advection to drop temperatures behind the
front. Still expecting to see the cool down a few hours following
the wind shift, closer to midnight. Relative humidities will be
dry Saturday, around 60% in the morning and dropping to 30% by the
afternoon. Saturday`s forecast soundings show PWs less than a
half inch across SE TX.

High pressure will build in from the west following the front this
evening, and remain in control through Saturday. By Sunday morning,
this ridge will propagate eastward, leaving behind a zonal pressure
pattern. Because high pressure systems rotate clockwise, as this
system shifts east, onshore flow will follow, enhancing moisture
return across SE TX. A small ripple within the pressure fields early
morning Monday, sends lower pressure in the form of a shortwave
towards the Upper Texas Coast. This feature, along with the moisture
advection from the southeasterly winds will increase our chance for
precipitation Sunday night into Monday. The model guidance is
inconsistent with QPF for Monday and Tuesday. In the latest run, the
GFS is a little more aggressive with more QPF for Monday
associated with the shortwave than the ECMWF. Currently carrying
a 30% PoP Sunday overnight, and a 20/40% PoP spread throughout the
day Monday.

PoPs will linger Tuesday, with precip out ahead of the next cold
front that pushes through Wednesday afternoon. This front will bring
with it a line of showers. The GFS is once again indicating a
heavier line of precip as this boundary moves through, in
comparison to the ECMWF and CMC. Following this front, conditions
will once again be high and dry, as another high pressure system
builds in to the coastal plains of Texas.

Temperatures will be on the rise again beginning Monday, with high
temperatures getting back up into the lower 80s, upper 70s. With the
passing of the cold front on Wednesday, expect to see cooler high
temperatures in the mid 60s beginning Thursday and lingering into
the following weekend.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      43  62  44  72  62 /   0   0  10  20  30
Houston (IAH)              47  66  46  73  64 /   0   0  10  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            55  66  57  70  67 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Saturday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$


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