Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091607
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION
TODAY. AT 1000 AM...SFC DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS (9 DEGREES AT KRWV AND 11 DEGREES AT KHOU/KLVJ).
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR FOR DEW POINTS TODAY WHICH SHOWS A
MINIMUM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
PERCENT TODAY. 12 SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHWEST. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP GRIDS. CIRRUS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
AND TRENDED SKY COVER TO CLEAR. 12Z SHV/LCH SOUNDING SHOWS 45 KNOT
WINDS AT 2000 FEET BUT THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 15 KNOTS AT
2000 FEET SO STRONGER WINDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...WIND
SPEEDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT IF WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE MORE THAN FCST...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...
DECREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COMING AROUND TO THE SE AND S DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
IR SAT SHOWING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO WE WILL SEE A COLD START TO
THE DAY. DW PTS RANGE FROM NEAR 30 COASTAL SOUTHWEST TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH MIXING LATER TODAY...WILL SEE LOW RH`S
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND RESULTS IN MID/UPPER HEIGHTS RISING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NE ON SATURDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON SAT NIGHT. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN ON SUN/MON. 33

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CAUTION FLAGS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADVISORIES IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM.  LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.  42

FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
VERY LOW TODAY BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
PLACE US BACK INTO WARNING LEVELS.  WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
CLOSELY.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  40  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  41  69  51  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  48  63  56  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43


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