Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 170341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
941 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Mid/upper level disturbance moving into Texas from the southwest
during the overnight hours will bring increasing clouds and rain
chances (highest closer to the coast and across the Gulf waters
and lowest further inland) mainly during the day tomorrow. The
current forecast package looks to be on track, and only needed
to made some minor adjustments to the grids on the evening update.

Today was Intercontinental Airport`s first day of the month in which
the average temperature was below normal. The first 15 days of February
had average daily temperatures ranging from 1 degree above normal
(just two times) to 19 or more degrees above normal (five times).
Through the 15th, IAH`s average temperature of 66.8 degrees was 11.8
degrees above normal.

So far in 2017, only 9 out of the 47 days have had average temperatures
below normal.  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/

VFR conditions are expected until tomorrow when showers and storms
approach from the SW. Included VCTS for all terminals south of
KIAH as it looks like most of the convection should remain near
the coast. Could see some MVFR cigs during/after the storms tomorrow
evening but kept the tafs more optimistic for now. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/

Dry/quiet weather prevailing across SE TX today with temperatures
very near our seasonal norm. Onshore winds are forecast to streng-
then tonight...helping to draw the moisture over the western Gulf
into the area through tomorrow. This along with the approach/pass-
age of the next upper trof/low across the state will produce scat-
tered SHRA/isolated TSRA over SE TX tomorrow. While the lift does
look to be best north of the CWA (in proximity to the low itself)
we have been seeing progs of a secondary short-wave further south
of the low. The track of this disturbance (just off the mid/upper
TX coast) combined with the deeper moisture (southern half of the
CWA) will keep the highest POPS in these locations for tomorrow.

As this system clears out to the east tomorrow night, a brief res-
pite with ridging aloft in place for Sat/early Sun. However, with
onshore winds strengthening once again late Sat, the focus should
turn to the (fairly consistent/persistent) progs of stormy/wet wx
moving in from the west late Sun through Mon. PW forecasts of 1.8
to 2 inches remain in place as well as the track of the upper low
itself (generally right over SE TX). The heavy rain threat on Mon
looks to remain in place. 41

Low winds and seas over the Upper Texas Coast today will give way to
increased south winds tonight into Friday. An upper level
disturbance will move across the NW Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and
increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning in the
morning. This system should move east Friday night with moderate
southerly winds headed into the weekend.

Southeast winds increase over the weekend into Monday. Model
guidance has been fairly consistent developing a long fetch of 15 to
25 knot winds over the Gulf on Sunday. Seas should build to 7 to 9
feet in offshore areas late Sunday. Advisories will be required for
the Sunday into Monday time frame. Another strong upper level
disturbance will move across the area on Monday and increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall will be
possible along the Gulf coast. Rain chances will likely continue for
the middle of next week as the upper level system will be slow
moving. Winds and seas should decrease during this time and look for
advisories to end late Monday.

Tide levels are returning to astronomical levels today and may push
above normal Sunday through Tuesday as southeast winds increase. At
this time tide levels should not be high enough to cause coastal
flooding along Gulf facing beaches.



College Station (CLL)      48  72  57  82  62 /   0  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              50  71  57  81  64 /   0  40  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            58  69  63  73  67 /   0  60  30  10  10




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