Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231547
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY
WILL EDGE OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW. RESULT AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS FAIRLY QUIET/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY EVENING. PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL ERODE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CONDS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
GROUND FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY. NO WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ANTICIPATED. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 09Z HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX AND
E TX. SFC OBS ARE REPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH T/TD
SPREADS BECOMING CLOSER...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. HUNTSVILLE
ALREADY REPORTING FOG WITH UNDER 1 MILE VISIBILITY. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING BY LATE MORNING TO DISSIPATE THE FOG BUT OVERALL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE.

ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
MID SOUTH WITH A WEAK RIDGE UPSTREAM MOVING OVER TX. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY QUIET/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD START IN THE 50S/60S WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING UPPER
70S TO 80F THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THUR THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEVELOP AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER CALIFORNIA AND A TROUGH FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE S PLAINS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA BY THU MORNING AND THEN OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS THUR WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT LOOK FOR 60S BEHIND THE FRONT AND 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MOISTURE DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH
LIFTED INDEX ABOUT -2/-3 SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION TSRA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS FOR NAM/GFS DO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING SO THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME WITH FRONTAL LIFTING. RAIN CHANCES WERE
ADJUSTED TO AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY
TSRA ACTIVITY.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH ANOTHER FRONT
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER TX SATURDAY WITH
WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT SAID...DOUBT ANYONE WILL
COMPLAIN ABOUT MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S/70S.
OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A GREAT SPRING WEEKEND.

39

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS WILL RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATER TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUES AND WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SFC DEW PTS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE
MID 60S ON WEDS NIGHT BUT WATER TEMPS ARE ALSO IN THE MID 60S SO
THE THREAT FOR SEA LOOKS MUCH MORE MARGINAL THAN LAST WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURS NIGHT AND AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED. WINDS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY BUT
INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR SLIDES
INTO THE REGION INCREASING THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
ZONES. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  56  80  60  80 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  54  80  59  80 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  61  73  64  75 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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