Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure area located along and off of the
MS/LA coast will shear out and move westward over the weekend. By
Sunday the system will become a part of the general weakness in
the 500 mb ridge. The models gradually fill in the weakness over
the middle and latter part of the week.

The water vapor and TPW satellite fields have shown an increase
in the moisture levels over the coastal areas this afternoon. The
sea and bay breezes along with outflow boundaries have led to
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Do expect the coverage to
increase slightly during the latter part of the afternoon. Model
soundings also show the potential for gusty winds in the stronger
storms through around 6:00 or 7:00 PM this evening.

Coverage is expected to increase on Saturday and Sunday as the
upper level system moves over Southeast Texas. On Saturday best
chances will probably be over the southeastern two-thirds of the
forecast area while area-wide coverage can be expected on Sunday.
Model PWs reach to between 1.9 and 2.1 inches both days. GFS model
sounding profiles show a better potential for isolated strong
storms on Saturday than Sunday, especially in the higher moisture
areas. Monday should see less coverage while Tuesday and Wednesday
may see only coverage due to seabreeze activity.

40

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in store for this weekend as
an upper level low pressure system approaches SE TX. Expect the
pressure gradient to tighten over the region late Saturday and
hold through Monday, increase wind speeds to between 10 to 15
knots out of the south/southwest. Seas during this time will
increase from 1-2 feet to 2-4 feet. Expect convection to develop
in the early morning hours starting around 09Z and moving inland
during the morning hours on Saturday and again early on Sunday.
Onshore winds should weaken to around 5 to 10 knots late Monday,
and remain weak through the rest of the week as an area of high
pressure builds in.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  97  76  96  76 /  10  30  10  50  20
Houston (IAH)              76  93  78  93  78 /  20  50  20  60  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  90  82  90  83 /  30  50  30  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...08


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