Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-45
KNOTS AT 925 MB. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL HELP DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME NICE CIRRUS STREAMING OVER SE TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NW AND REALLY THATS ABOUT IT. GIVEN NW WINDS...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED CLOSE TO 70 AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS BACK IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S FOR MON MORNING. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MISS/TN RIVER VALLEYS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BOMB OUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED. HOW DOES THIS IMPACT HOUSTON?
LETS JUST SAY YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT TO FLY EAST ANY TIME SOON
ESPECIALLY JFK/LGA/BOS. WHILE THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY DELAYS AT
IAH/HOU THERE MAY BE SOME TRICKLE DOWN TRAVEL IMPACTS.

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND NW
FLOW/LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2 THIRDS OF THE U.S. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER S
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SEEMS TO BE A FAVORED REGION
FOR CUT OFF LOWS THIS YEAR. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
RECENT RAIN EVENT AND THEN RUN OF GOOD WEATHER AFTER THAT. GRANTED
IT IS NEXT WEEKEND BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES STARTING SAT INTO SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA THUR INTO FRI SO THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR GOOD COLD
RAIN. THE HARDEST PART WILL BE TIMING ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
THAT PUSH THROUGH IN THE MAIN JET FLOW. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THAT REGARD. GFS IS WET AT FIRST BUT REALLY HANGS
THE CUTT OFF OUT OVER THE BAJA. ECMWF IS DRIER AT FIRST...HAS ONE
CLUSTER OF RAIN NEXT SUN AND THEN FINALLY EJECTS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE AREA FOR ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER IN THE 8-10DAY RANGE. WITH
THAT IN MIND...STANDARD DISCLAIMER APPLIES...DETAILS OF THE 8-10
DAY FORECAST WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

39

MARINE...
W/SWLY WINDS JUST A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS EVE AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE N/NW. NO REAL CHANGE FROM CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS
TONIGHT/EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BE-
HIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS/SEAS BY MON AFTN/EVE IF
ALL GOES WELL. THE GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW MON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR TUES/WEDS. THE NEXT FRONT ON TAP
FOR LATE THURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  66  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  65  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            47  60  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


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