Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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454
FXUS64 KHGX 160511
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1111 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs will persist for the next several hours...possible
transitioning down to higher end IFR for a bit if winds relax
enough. Shortwave moving across n Tx will drag tail end of precip
into northern parts of se Tx after 7z and likely bring periods of rain
with iso tstms for CLL/UTS into the mid morning hours. Isolated
popcorn type activity possible in the metro area, but should be as
widespread. May see a break and lifting cigs from mvfr to vfr in
the mid morning-early afternoon hours...esp Houston areas. Daytime
heating and the lingering boundary will probably focus some
additional afternoon precip (mainly north of a Columbus-Livingston
line). Frontal boundary will slowly sag into the region Monday
night with increased chances of precip well inland...and a return
of possibly dense sea fog closer to the coast.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/
Fog not an issue this evening with better lower level mixing
(30-35 knot just-off-the-deck winds)...shallow shelf water
temperatures having warmed into the lower 60s may be tonight`s
dense maritime fog inhibitor. The focus shifts from fog to
precipitation as there have been a few thunderstorm cells that
have exhibited weak rotation as they have moved northward over the
northwestern-northern CWA tonight. Vicious looking QLCS moving
into EWX`s western forecast area...with a right moving supercell
rotating through Bandera County west of San Anton. Per the higher
resolution modeling...this squall line is forecast to break apart
as it moves east of I-35. The northeast ejection of the western
Texas upper low into OK-KS tomorrow morning suggests that the bulk
of the highest shear/energy should stay well to the north...with
the stretching flow becoming more parallel to the boundary slowing
the associated mid-surface boundary as it approaches SE TX
tomorrow night. With a slightly higher surge of Gulf moisture
moving inland and warmer mid layers providing interior skinny CAPE
values (600-800 J/kg)...scattered thunderstorms mixed in with
southern-moving-northerly rain clusters through Monday are not out
of the question. There is enough turning of the lower few thousand
layer winds to promote a weak tornado threat (early day 150-200
SRH northern values). Mainly overcast and precipitation should
regulate Monday`s diurnal temperatures to a near 5 to 10 degree
minimum-maximum temperature differential. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  73  56  61  53 /  70  80  60  50  50
Houston (IAH)              66  77  63  69  58 /  40  50  60  50  50
Galveston (GLS)            65  70  63  69  61 /  20  30  60  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Monday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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