Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 110135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
735 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Current forecast remains on track with only minor updates made to
hourly temperatures and dew points based on observational trends.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will result in temperatures
falling into the mid 30s to lower 40s inland and mid 40s along the
coast.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

AVIATION...
Surface high pressure will bring generally light winds to the
area tonight. Cirrus will continue to stream over the region and
could thicken a bit late Monday morning before scattering back out
toward evening. VFR conditions expected for the next 30 hours. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The surface ridge currently located just west over central Texas
will remain in place through the beginning of next week, keeping
winds mainly out of the west. This should allow high temperatures
for Monday to once again reach into the upper 60s along the coast
to low 70s further inland. This area of high pressure will begin
to weaken late Monday before the tail end of a weak cold front
swings through the region Tuesday. This front should be a dry one,
and will only act to lower high temperatures by five to ten
degrees, leaving Tuesday`s high temps in the low 60s. Ridging
again builds in behind this weak front early Wednesday. Winds will
turn back onshore, allowing moisture to return. Forecast sounding
show PWs rising from 0.30 inches to just over a half inch by
Thursday afternoon.

Our next best chance for rain does come until the end of next week.
Late Thursday into Friday, the GFS and ECMWF model solutions begin
to diverge. The ECMWF shows upper level low pressure over the Baja
Peninsula weakening enough to allow a shortwave to dive into
southern Texas, bringing with it enough lift to produce a large
swath of precipitation out ahead of the trough axis. This
precipitation would set up mainly over the coast and northwestern
Gulf of Mexico, before quickly pushing eastward as the axis swings
through the region. This chance for rain would begin as early as
late Thursday and carry through Friday. The GFS however, keeps
this shortwave much further north of SE TX and as a result, keeps
most of the precipitation well to the east over the north and
northeastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, decided to
carry a chance for showers over the offshore waters late Thursday
into Friday morning to account for the possibility of this
shortwave digging closer to SE TX, but overall trending towards
the GFS solution based on its overall consistency between model
runs.

Hathaway

MARINE...
As high pressure continues to move off to the east, light W/SW winds
will be developing across the coastal waters tonight and tomorrow.
A cold front remains on track to move into SE TX late Mon night
but is not expected to reach the marine areas until early Tues
morning. The generally moderate offshore winds developing in the
wake of the cold front could produce a brief period of SCEC
conditions late Tues morning/early afternoon. Wind speeds are
expected to decrease late Tues night then slowly shifting to the
S/SW once again on Weds. This very active pattern is pushing
another cold front into the coastal waters Thurs night...with
strong offshore winds developing on Fri. SCEC/SCA flags will be
possible at that time. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      39  73  43  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              40  72  45  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            50  70  52  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14



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