Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261445
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING. THE PATCHY FOG WHICH HAD BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS DISSIPATING AS OF 9 AM. THIS WAS ON PAR WITH
THE NAMBUFR AND RUC13 MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS.

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE FOG MENTION.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

UPDATE...
FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES GETTING THICKER AND FEW SITES
REPORTING VISBY OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 TO
BELTWAY 8 AND WEST OF I-45. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 8 AND
9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD CENTER AROUND FOG THIS MORNING
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS MONDAY MORNING.

PATCHY FOG AS OF 11Z IS RESULTING IN TEMPO CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT
KCXO...KSGR...AND KLBX. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY...BUT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE SURFACE HEATING TO DISSIPATE
FOG BY 14Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH
FIELDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING FOR
TAF SITES MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 COURTESY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
CATEGORY CHANGES AT THIS TIME /DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND
OCCURRENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD/...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS.

14

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS MORNING MAINLY JUST PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AREAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10-WEST OF I-45. STILL A
FEW MORE HOURS TO RADIATE DOWN AND GIVEN THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF THE LAST FEW HOURS THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S EXPECT THE FOG
TO GET A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD BE VERY
PATCHY AND SHALLOW BUT RURAL AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH THE EASTWARD
RETREAT OF THE SURFACE RIDGING. A FEW CU WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS WITH FULL SUN ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS TX WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO FLORIDA MONDAY
WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE FORMING NW OF HAWAII. DOWNSTREAM
THE TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING MONDAY (MAYBE EVEN BREEZY IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS). THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOSES STEAM AS IT
DROPS OUT OF NETX INTO SETX. RAIN CHANCES DO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS SOME GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
THE FAVORED TYPE BUT HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING AND LOW PW VALUES.  UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES EARLY THURSDAY
TAPPING INTO A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT RACES SOUTH AND REINFORCES
THE SAGGY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE REACHING THE COAST
THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN AIRMASS ON HALLOWEEN.
RAIN CHANCES PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBSIDENCE RAMPS UP AND
LL FOCUS SHIFT OUT INTO THE GULF. HALLOWEEN SHOULD BE DRY/COOL
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD HAVE A
WONDERFUL EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID 70S AROUND
4-5PM TO LOWER 60S BY 8-9PM WITH A HALF MOON AND CLEAR SKIES.

GFS AND ECMWF DO START TO PAINT AN INTERESTING PATTERN DEVELOPING
AROUND 240 HOURS AND BEYOND WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
VERY JUICY TROPICAL TAP FEEDING OFF OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
PACIFIC THAT GETS CAUGHT UP AND PULLED ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD
SETX/CNTX/STX...PERHAPS A HEAVY RAIN EVENING IN THE MAKING. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PATTERNS EVOLUTION IN THE COMING WEEK.
45

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM LEE TROUGH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY... WITH WINDS NEAR
15 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN
BORDERLINE CONDITIONS...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE CAUTION
STATEMENTS /PRIMARILY FOR MONDAY NIGHT/. BY MID-WEEK... WINDS/SEAS
WILL FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE RECEIVING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE FRONT/S WAKE WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE ADVISORY
FLAGS INTO THE 1ST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO RESUME
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  62  86  66  85 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  63  85  67  85 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  71  81  74  81 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47



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