Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131849
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
149 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014


.AVIATION...
CIGS LIFTING AT MOST SITES NOW NEAR 2000-4000FT WITH S-SE WINDS
10-18G15-25KT. SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM AROUND ARM-11R-CXO AND LIFTING
NORTHWARDS. INTERESTING FEATURE CAN BE SEEN RACING NORTH ACROSS
THE GULF AT 38 KNOTS WITH LOWER CIGS AND GUSTY STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND GLS AT 1845Z OR SO...HAVE NUDGED
UP WINDS BUT NOT CERTAIN HOW THIS WILL IMPACT CEILINGS/PRECIP INLAND
IF AT ALL. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN SITES AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BUT WILL PROBABLY (PER
HIGH RES WRF/ARW MODELS) DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS DON`T HAVE THE GULF VISITOR FEATURE.
COLD FRONT MARCHES SOUTH TONIGHT AND NEARS THE CLL AREA AROUND 12Z
AND EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BUILD BACK DOWN THE BOUNDARY AND SWING
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-16Z FOR MOST SITES MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL BEFORE FROPA AND THEN STRONG NORTH WINDS FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE. RAINS COMING TO END AFTER 18Z A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA.
45

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER COORDINATING WITH CRP PLAN TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A
GALE WARNING FOR MONDAY WITH THE UPCOMING PACKAGE.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT A HUMID...BREEZY MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. STILL THINK TEMPS COULD
REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...
GIVEN SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME FILTERED
SUN...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERALL.

RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER OFF TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT RADAR TENDS
AND VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS EXPECT WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY FAR NW COUNTIES...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO AGAIN FAR
NW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP RANGE
FROM 50 PERCENT FAR NW TO 20 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...WHERE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. HAVE TAKEN THUNDER OUT OF SOUTHERN THIRD OF
FORECAST AREA...AS WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS UNDER
THE CAP...BUT DONT THINK WILL SEE DEEPER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. 46

ALSO OF NOTE GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR MARINE AREAS AS STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LAND AREAS AS WE
GET CLOSER. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  62  69  34  63 /  50  40  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  71  72  40  65 /  30  30  60  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  70  70  46  64 /  20  30  60  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...45



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