Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Only a few tweaks to the going TAFS...mainly with regard to timing
of the line of storms from the west. Already seeing scattered SHRA
developing along a pre-frontal trof edging into the western fringe
of the CWA at this time and more widely scattered stuff just ahead
of this. Did opt out of a secondary shot of SHRA overnight/towards
morning as we should be too dry. VFR expected for most of tomorrow
but will reserve judgment for late Sat night/early Sun morning (as
onshore winds/low-level moisture return). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

Warm sector airmass remains moist in the boundary layer with
dewpoints in the mid 60s but temperatures are in the mid 70s for
the most part, low 70s farther north. Combination of high clouds
and low clouds have limited heating so far which has helped
maintained boundary layer moisture from mixing but will still
limit instability if there is not enough heating in the afternoon.
There will still be some concern for severe weather mainly
northeast of Conroe for the evening hours. HRRR guidance continues
to show a broken line of storms which given the shear parameters,
wind/tornado threat will need to be monitored.

For now only changes to the forecast were to modify for ongoing
T/Td/sky trends. We are hoping to have more of a mesoscale
discussion for the early afternoon to better highlight potential
for severe weather.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  57  81  58  86 /  80  30  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              80  66  83  61  85 /  50  60  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  71  80  69  81 /  20  50  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Jackson...Matagorda...Waller...Washington...
     Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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