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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171655
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL MIX OUT AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTN AND
EVENING. LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE AND WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BACK
TO TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. WINDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHTER SO SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD AGAIN
MIX OUT AFTER 16Z SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

UPDATE...
THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZE HAIL OUTSIDE
OF CORSICANA THIS MORNING WAS HEADING DUE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THIS SMALL COMPLEX HAS FIZZED OUT THROUGH LEON
COUNTY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING MADISON AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES. OVERCAST SKIES ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT A BIT...ANOTHER
DAY OF BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING HIGH MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE.
MOS GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS TAKING MID-LEVEL AIR DOWN (QUASI) DRY
ADIABATICALLY...PRODUCES INTERIOR MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90F.
SURPRISINGLY...IF COLLEGE STATION DOES ACHIEVE THE 90 MARK...IT WILL
BE A FIRST FOR THEM THIS CALENDAR YEAR (HOUSTON HIT 90F BACK ON
MARCH 18TH). 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE IN THE NW FLOW IS PRODUCING
SOME ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE BASED AROUND 10 KFT. ADDED A 20 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THIS
PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

IN GENERAL EXPECT A DRY AND WARM FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROF AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS SE TX TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT WILL ADVERTISE SOME
LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. BY
THU/FRI NEXT WEEK AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS OVR TX WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS DEGREE OF RIDGING IN THE MODELS. 33

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SCEC CRITERIA BUT HAVE
SO FAR REMAINED MOSTLY BELOW. TIDE LEVELS WILL COME UP A BIT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  71  90  71  89 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  71  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  74  81  74  83 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43