Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF NORTHWARD MOVING LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED FROM GALVESTON TO
THE HOUSTON AREA. FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SOME NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LIGHT RAIN
HAS BEEN FALLING BETWEEN THE BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND CROCKETT. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE WEEKEND FORECAST. AS
OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROF
AXIS DEVELOPS NEAR THE COAST AND DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA`S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET YESTERDAY AT COLLEGE STATION)...THEY WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE AS WARM AS WAS ADVERTISED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOME OF IT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DENSE. THE FOG COULD
LAST A WHILE TOO. RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
(HIGHER CHANCES FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE COAST) AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UP NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURES MIGHT GET CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LEVEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WE MIGHT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  42
&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN
ELEVATED SEAS...TIDE LEVELS HIGH AND STRENGTHEN THE RIP CURRENT.
THERE MAY BE A MINOR RUN UP OF WATER OVER NOTORIOUSLY LOWER
SPOTS...OR ALONG MORE WESTWARD FACING BEACHES. A DEVELOPING WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THIS RECENTLY TAUNT EAST TO WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH TOMORROW AND VEER WEAKENING WINDS MORE ONSHORE.
SOUTHERLIES WILL PULL IN HIGHER DEW POINT AIR OVER CHILLED SHELF
WATERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA FOG AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  46  60  51  65 /  50  50  40  40  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  53  67  59  71 /  30  50  40  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            56  55  67  61  68 /  40  50  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31


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