Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 071016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
416 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

One last day of relative warmth is expected for Southeast Texas
today before a strong cold front blasts across the region
tonight. Early morning surface analysis showed this front seeping
into the Northern Plains from Canada. Closer to home, another
round of patchy fog is ongoing this morning and expect this fog to
dissipate by mid-morning with heating. Low clouds spreading
across the region from the northeast should help mitigate against
dense fog development, but a few locations outside of this cloud
shield (or under any breaks in it) may drop below 1 mile at

Isentropic upglide (295K surface) will increase across the region
from southwest to northeast through the day today ahead of the
approaching front. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few light
showers develop near the Victoria Crossroads early afternoon and
spread into the western/southwestern counties through the
remainder of the afternoon as lift increases. Surface high
pressure sliding east of the region today will allow for some
meager moisture return as northeast surface winds this morning
become south to southeast this afternoon, with shower coverage
increasing this evening and tonight along and south of the Highway
59 corridor as a result. Because moisture return is so minimal
(precipitable water values around one inch), not expecting much
in the way of rain totals with most areas receiving less than one
third of an inch. Otherwise, expect highs this afternoon in the
mid to upper 60s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

The cold front over the Northern Plains will push into Texas
later today, reaching College Station this evening, the Houston
metro after midnight, and clearing Galveston by sunrise. Wednesday
night`s showers will gradually be shunted offshore as the front
continues to push into the Gulf on Thursday morning. Thursday will
be a day where high and low temperatures for most locations are
nearly the same, with temperatures on Thursday generally remaining
in the 40s to low 50s due to cold air advection and cloudy skies
behind the front. Increasing northerly winds can also be expected
behind the front, with 15-25 MPH winds inland and 20-30 MPH along
the coast. Wind gusts may approach 40 MPH closer to the coast and
wind Advisories will be needed (at least) along the coast on

Thursday night will be the coldest morning the region has
experienced this season, with overnight low temperatures forecast
to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s north of Interstate 10 and mid
30s to low 40s south. Drier air filtering in behind the front
does look to erode most of the clouds Thursday night, but GFS and
NAM Bufr soundings are continuing to advertise the potential for
partly cloudy skies with a persistent layer of moisture around
800-700 MB. These clouds would inhibit some of the overnight
radiational cooling and help keep temperatures warmer, affecting
which locations north of Interstate 10 would see a freeze on
Friday morning. For now, have kept temperatures fairly similar to
the previous forecast which advertises freezing temperatures
along and north of an Eagle Lake to Spring to Liberty line. Wind
chills on Friday morning are forecast to fall into the upper 10s
to mid 20s in many locations inland and coats will be needed when
heading to work or school.

Temperatures will warm into the mid 40s to low 50s on Friday as
skies continue to clear, with temperatures continuing to rebound
this weekend as surface high pressure departing the region and
onshore flow resuming allows highs to climb back into the upper
60s to low 70s by Sunday. Rain chances will increase Saturday
night through Sunday as moisture returns, with scattered showers
expected on Sunday as a cold front moves into the area. A brief
dry period is possible by the middle of next week before another
cold front reaches the region.



Weak high pressure over the central plains will bring a light
north wind to the coastal waters this morning. As the high shifts
east, surface winds will veer to the east. A strong cold front
will push across the coastal waters late tonight and N-NE winds
will develop and strengthen significantly. Sustained winds in the
wake of the front will increases to 25 to 35 knots with higher
gusts. A Gale Watch has posted for the Gulf waters from 12z
Thursday through 06z Friday. SCA conditions will prevail over the
bays Thurs/Thurs Night.

There may be some impact on Thursday in the more north-to-south
ship channels as water is pushed out of the bays. The wind
direction is currently forecast to be north or even north-
northeast and am not expecting any low water advisories at this
time. However, will need to keep an eye out for any adverse
impacts if the wind direction changes more to more northwesterly.

Moderate onshore winds are expected to develop on Saturday and
near advisory conditions will be possible on Saturday night into
Sunday. The winds will diminish on Sunday night ahead of another
front early Monday. 43


College Station (CLL)      64  42  44  29  47 /  10  20  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)              67  48  49  33  49 /  10  40  20  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            66  53  54  41  51 /  10  50  30  10   0


GM...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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