Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301532
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 14Z...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA S-SW ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AT 850 MB...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
LINGERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTH
TO SOUTH FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS TO THE WESTERN GULF. 700 MB
MOISTURE WAS ALSO WIDESPREAD FROM TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS NOTED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO PALACIOS AND THEN OUT
OVER THE GULF. A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS LINGERED OVER EAST TEXAS. AT
250 MB...A WELL DEFINED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A 55 KT SPEED MAX EXTENDED INTO EAST
TEXAS BUT SE TX LOOKS TO BE IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE SPEED
MAX WITH THE BEST LIFT FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW RICH TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN
2.4 AND 2.6 INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 84 TO 88
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS THRESHOLD SHOULD BE MET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH SE LYING TO THE EAST OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND DEEP TROPICAL MSTR IN PLACE...FEEL AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY. TEMP FCST LOOKS ON
TRACK AS DOES SKY COVER. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1045 AM.

SMALL CHANGES TO THE MARINE ZONES AS WELL. ISSUED A SCEC FOR
MARINE AREA AS WINDS ARE AROUND 16 KTS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET. MUCH
OF THIS IS THE BY PRODUCT OF CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE ONCE CONVECTION WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. 43

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INLAND COVERAGE AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. MOST
INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CLL/UTS
LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY ACTIVITY AT ALL. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD ONCE CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  74  94  76  95 /  30  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  76  92  77  93 /  40  50  50  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  89  81  90 /  60  50  50  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43


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