Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 131509
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1009 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT KGLS AND KLBX FELL
AT THE LATEST OB THANKS TO CAA THAT HAS ALLOWED LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE CWA. DUE TO THIS HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STILL MIGHT BE TO HIGH IN SOME AREAS AS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD
ALSO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE PARTS OF THE AREA...THE FRONT
HAS NOW MADE IT TO THE COAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COASTAL
SW ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
TRAINING PRECIP SHOULD BE LOCATED. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH...DRIER & COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS (PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2") AND
ISO/SCT SHRA WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY UNTIL PROBABLY EARLY AFTN
UNTIL THE SLIGHT CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA AT H85
RESOLVES. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND TO FOLLOW INLAND (BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT ACTIVITY
PERSIST WELL OFFSHORE).

STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON DISTURBED WX OFF THE GULF COAST OF FL. EXPECT
THIS AREA TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. ATTM CONDITIONS STILL DON`T LOOK
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON THRU LATE
WED. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FUTURE BUMPS UPWARD WITH MODEL CONSISTENCY.
MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK & GRADUALLY SHUNT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS TO THE SW. 47

MARINE...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE. SEEING DECENT WINDS/
GUSTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (PER OBS) AND GIVEN THE MID/UPPER 50 DEW-
POINTS MOVING THIS WAY...WILL GO AHEAD WITH CAUTION FLAGS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY (WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT).

DECREASED WIND SPEEDS BY SUN AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON/TUES
BUT SELY WINDS THEREAFTER EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. 41

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE AT/NEAR THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN FOCUSED ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS
WELL. HOWEVER THE IFR CIGS MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL MID MORNING (OR SO)
WHEN THE DRIER AIR DEEPENS WITH CONTINUED CAA. SHOULD BE VFR THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE DAY/TONIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  65  87  71  91 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  68  88  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  74  86  80  88 /  30  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23



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