Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272329
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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