Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 182322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Generally VFR conds expected for this evening but clouds are
expected to begin to develop after 06z over the NW-N TAF sites. A
surge of slightly deeper moisture. Could see some showers begin to
develop near KGLS and KLBX prior to sunrise as a narrow convergent
zone develops near the coast. Think potential for showers will
exist on Wed aftn as PW values increase to 1.60 inches. Both the
RAP and the TT WRF show scattered showers across much of SE TX.
Will be watching short term model trends and might be adding a
VCSH with the 03z update. 43


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

Another day of unseasonably warm weather expected tomorrow before
the arrival of the cold front on Thursday. We have already tied a
record this afternoon (GLS) and are close to another (CLL). As it
stands...records most likely to be reached/exceeded tomorrow will
be HOU/GLS. (see below)

No significant changes with the overall forecast as models remain
in fairly good agreement with the upcoming pattern shift. Weaken-
ing/eastward shifting upper ridge will allow for the passage of a
deep longwave trof Weds/Thur. This will then help to drag a long-
awaited cold front into/across the state Thur. The NNW flow aloft
in the wake of the front is then progged to segue into broad upp-
er level ridging by the weekend. Will have to keep an eye on this
pattern as the new week starts as there are hints (via ECMWF) the
ridge will be short-lived with the development/passage of a fair-
ly well-defined shortwave moving in from the CA Baja region. Will
this herald a more active pattern for next week? Long-range progs
from GFS (of a strong upper low/trof deepening just off the sout-
hern CA coast and its subsequent SW flow aloft here) seem to con-
trast sharply with the ECMWF extended patterns (of strong ridging
over the state). Hmmm. Upcoming runs should be interesting. 41

High Temperature Records
     TODAY 10/18     WEDS 10/19
CLL    92-2004         97-1921
IAH    96-1895         94-2004
HOU    94-1947         90-2004
GLS    87-2007         86-2004

Tides are still running about a foot above normal. Will probably see
water come up to or slightly over the Highway 87 @ Highway 124
intersection between 5-10pm this evening and again Wed (around times
of the the more significant high tides). Doesn`t appear any other
locations should see any substantial issues.

Southerly to southeasterly flow of around 10-15kt is forecast to persist
for the next couple of days. A cold front will push off the coast on
Thursday, with northeasterly winds increasing to around 20-25kts and seas
reaching 6 to 8 feet in the offshore waters overnight Thursday night.
Winds will gradually shift onshore and weaken as seas slowly subside
throughout the weekend.  11


College Station (CLL)      73  92  70  79  55 /  10  20  30  40  10
Houston (IAH)              71  91  71  85  57 /  10  20  30  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  87  77  83  65 /  10  30  30  50  10




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