Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200440
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1140 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.AVIATION...
BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings (around 1500 feet) are beginning to develop
across parts of SE TX. These clouds (and possible fog) are expected
to increase in coverage and fall into IFR/LIFR levels overnight as
winds decrease. Everything should scatter out fairly quickly by
mid-morning with VFR conditions for the rest of the day under mainly
SSW winds around 8 to 12 knots. Look for another round of possible
low clouds and fog late Monday night through Tuesday morning.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

UPDATE...
Forecast looks on track as we move into the nighttime hours, and
have only made tweaks to temperatures tonight to better reflect a
slightly quicker cooling trend as the sun goes down - still bring
temps to the same place in the end. Otherwise, continue to look
for patchy fog and/or some low clouds towards morning,
particularly closer to the coast.

Radar and satellite show the presence of a fire in southeastern
Chambers County, on or near the Anahuac National Wildlife Refuge.
The area in the vicinity of the plume visible on radar and
satellite is relatively unpopulated, but some light smoke may be
visible in the sky as far north as I-10 west of Winnie and
Stowell.

Luchs

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue over SE Texas through mid week. For
tonight and early tomorrow, patchy fog should result. However,
surface winds may be a bit higher than last night which should
make any fog formation a bit more patchier. This is reflected in
the high resolution models showing lower chances for fog formation
than 24 hours ago.

The main impacts of the high pressure ridging will be dry and warm
conditions. Daytime highs will reach into the lower 80s each day
through Thursday with some mid 80s possible. By the end of the
week, the upper level ridge will exit to the east as an upper
trough moves across the Rockies into the plains. Both the GFS and
ECMWF looked similar and both bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Friday into early Saturday
followed by a dry and cooler weekend.

MARINE...
Quiet conditions are expected to persist across the marine areas over
the next several days as surface high pressure over the northern Gulf
results in light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. Winds and
seas should increase late in the work work ahead of the next weak
frontal boundary that is forecast to push off the coast early
Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  85  62  85  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              63  84  63  85  64 /   0  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            67  76  68  76  68 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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