Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160402
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1102 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING. WATER VAPOR AND GPS DATA ALL INDICATING THE EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS. PW <.20" WITH CALM WINDS AND A CHILLY AIRMASS SO
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND...UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE METROPLEX.

FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MANY SITES NORTH OF THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA.  UPDATE SENT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND RELAX WINDS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AS WELL.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CUMULUS FORMING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANTLY COOL DAY UNDER FULL SUN WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STOUT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS YESTERDAY`S UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS WELL EAST...ITS
AXIS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL LAY DOWN TONIGHT
AND...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...MANY WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILL SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING`S COLD BITE. ALL FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES WILL FALL
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
GALVESTON HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT TYING (OR BREAKING) ITS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORD AS THEIR APRIL 16TH RECORD OF 51 F 86 YEARS
AGO IS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S RECORD. WINDS VEER
AROUND TO ONSHORE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO THE DAY WILL WARM A BIT
FASTER THAN TODAY...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL POSSIBLY INTRODUCE LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOBE OF PVA THAT SKIRTS THROUGH
AHEAD OF THIS SHALLOW 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. PROFILES WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE 85H...A 7-85H CAP IN PLACE SO THERE MAY BE
WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT FORM UNDER THIS WARM NOSE AS LATE
AM INTO EARLY PM TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS STAY TOGETHER ON THE TIMING OF FRIDAY`S UPPER
TRANSITORY RIDGING...BUT BEGIN TO GO OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NO SURPRISES WITH MODEL BEHAVIOR AS THE FASTER GFS PUSHES
A NORTHEAST- LIFTING TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS OVER
EASTER...WHILE THE SLOWER- PACED EURO HANGS ITS TROUGH AXIS WEST.
THE FASTER GFS INTRODUCES RAIN SATURDAY WHILE BOTH MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD (LOW) QPF OVER EASTER. IN AN ATTEMPT TO TIME THESE OUT-
OUT-PHASE SOLUTIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT ON SATURDAY
AND WENT WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS EASTER DAY. IT APPEARS THAT
MANY WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS
ARE KEEPING THE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS LOW (GENERALLY UNDER AN AVERAGE
HALF AN INCH). THE CAP DOES ERODE EARLY IN THE WEEK SO THERE WILL
BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTER ONWARD
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY MONDAY (PER GFS)
CONTINUES THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN CWA. EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR WARMING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S THIS WEEKEND ONWARD...MILD OVERNIGHTS IN THE 60S...UNDER
MORE OVERCAST/HUMIDITY AS ONSHORE WINDS PUMP UP GREATER THAN 1.50
INCH PWAT MOISTURE INTO SE TEXAS. 31

MARINE...
COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER WARMER SHELF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
NE WINDS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVER EAST OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE BEFORE BECOMING EAST TOWARD MORNING AND
INCREASING AGAIN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ELEVATED SPEEDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      36  71  53  72  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  71  55  74  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  68  60  72  65 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
     THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



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