Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 242139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Another above normal day in terms of high temperatures. Still
forecasting to see high temperatures reach up into the mid 80s, with
the possibly breaking a few record max temperatures, specifically
Houston Hobby and Galveston this evening. The cold front that has
been pushing through SE TX should clear the coastline in the next
hour or so, with a wind shift out of the NW. Strong NW winds will
hold Friday night through Saturday allowing for additional cold
air advection to drop temperatures behind the front. Still
expecting to see the cool down a few hours following the wind
shift, closer to midnight. Relative humidities will be dry
Saturday, around 60% in the morning and dropping to 30% by the
afternoon. Saturday`s forecast soundings show PWs less than a half
inch across SE TX.

High pressure will build in from the west following the front this
evening, and remain in control through Saturday. By Sunday morning,
this ridge will propagate eastward, leaving behind a zonal pressure
pattern. Because high pressure systems rotate clockwise, as this
system shifts east, onshore flow will follow, enhancing moisture
return across SE TX. A small ripple within the pressure fields early
morning Monday, sends lower pressure in the form of a shortwave
towards the Upper Texas Coast. This feature, along with the moisture
advection from the southeasterly winds will increase our chance for
precipitation Sunday night into Monday. The model guidance is
inconsistent with QPF for Monday and Tuesday. In the latest run, the
GFS is a little more aggressive with more QPF for Monday
associated with the shortwave than the ECMWF. Currently carrying
a 30% PoP Sunday overnight, and a 20/40% PoP spread throughout the
day Monday.

PoPs will linger Tuesday, with precip out ahead of the next cold
front that pushes through Wednesday afternoon. This front will bring
with it a line of showers. The GFS is once again indicating a
heavier line of precip as this boundary moves through, in
comparison to the ECMWF and CMC. Following this front, conditions
will once again be high and dry, as another high pressure system
builds in to the coastal plains of Texas.

Temperatures will be on the rise again beginning Monday, with high
temperatures getting back up into the lower 80s, upper 70s. With the
passing of the cold front on Wednesday, expect to see cooler high
temperatures in the mid 60s beginning Thursday and lingering into
the following weekend.



A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of a
cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be required for the 20-60 NM
waters and a SCEC for the 0-20 NM. Winds will subside Saturday
afternoon and gradually become east as sfc high pressure moves east
of the region by Saturday night. SE winds will return Sunday night
and gradually strengthen as low pressure develops over West Texas. A
weak to moderate onshore flow will persist Mon/Tue with weak low
pressure over Central Texas. A strong cold front will cross the
marine zones on Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the
central plains with a moderate to strong NE-E winds on Thu/Fri. 43


College Station (CLL)      43  62  44  72  62 /   0   0  10  20  30
Houston (IAH)              47  66  46  73  64 /   0   0  10  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            55  66  57  70  67 /   0   0  10  20  30


GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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