Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250942
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENERGY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SLIDING DOWN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
NORTHEASTERN CONVECTION...WILL ENTERING OUR HEATED AND STILL VEER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT (~2 INCH PWS) FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
PROGGED BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMICS ARE RIPE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG...TO BORDERLINE SEVERE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
INVERTED-V NATURE TO SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF A WIND THREAT.
ALTHOUGH OF NOT MUCH USE OF LATE...SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING THAT HAS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT DECENTLY THIS MORNING
...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO SOME DEGREE...DEVELOP MID-
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND SWATH STORM
CLUSTERS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERING WE
ARE WITHIN AN UNWORKED OVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY REACHING OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE BEST HEAT-OF-THE DAY
TIME FRAME POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE...WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE BAIT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO
AND TAKE POPS UP TO MODERATE CHANCE.

REGION REMAINS WITHIN THIS NORTHERN FLOW PATTERN AT MID-WEEK WITH
THE COOLEST MID-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD OFF FROM ADVECTING IN UNTIL
THURSDAY...OR ONCE WINDS VEER MORE AROUND TO THE EAST. ONCE THIS
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION WANES...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN
DRY PER THE SLOW EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ASSERTING
ITS SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WILL SPELL SUBSEQUENT DAILY HOT CONDITIONS. LESSENED HUMIDITY
WITH THE ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERN AIR MASS THAT
WILL BE CERTAINLY FELT IN THE EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS...OVERNIGHT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE AVERAGE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW 60S IN THE NOTORIOUS COOL SPOTS. DRY AIR
WILL MAKE FOR INTERIOR AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES STICKING CLOSE TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
AS A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF DESERT SW RIDGING
BEGINS TO SCOOT A BIT WEST AND TAP INTO A RELATIVELY HIGHER NEAR
1.5 INCH AIR MASS. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA...ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE...COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCT TSTMS TODAY. WINDS/SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH ENE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT OF A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST GIVEN WIDE VARIETY OF GUIDANCE.
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE TSTM POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN N/NE TX AS THESE COULD EXPAND SSE
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS E TX/LA WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY SAGGING INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 92-95 & THINK MAIN THREAT PERIOD FOR AREA TAFS WILL BE
18-24Z. ATMOS PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT CELLS. METRO AIRPORTS WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SEA BREEZE POSITION...AS POTENTIAL COLLISIONS BETWEEN INCOMING
STORMS AND THIS FEATURE AND/OR ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE STORM STRENGTH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY - WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
VCTS`S GOING IN THE 12Z PACKAGE AND AMEND WHEN NEEDED. OUTSIDE ANY
TSTMS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  74  95  68  98 /  40  20  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  74  95  69  96 /  40  20  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  90  78  92 /  30  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47



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