Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD STRATUS LAYER SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIFTING DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT UNLIKELY TO BREAK TODAY. WILL ASSESS IF NEED TO
INCREASE FOG AND DRIZZLE MENTION FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY. RMCQUEEN

.AVIATION...
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUD LAYER WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO 1000-2000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
STRUGGLE MOST AT KLBB. STRATUS DECK LIKELY TO LOWER AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG REDEVELOPING AT KLBB AND KPVW AT
LEAST. MAY SEE BONA-FIDE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
AS WELL...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COLD DOME...BUT NO
EXPLICIT MENTION OF THESE FOR NOW WITH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING GIVEN
RADAR TRENDS AS FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN. OTHERWISE...COOL AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY.

AVIATION...
IFR SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING IS SLOWED BY QUITE THICK POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS AND AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE CEILINGS MUCH ABOVE 1500 FT
GIVEN THIS MORNING/S DATA. WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN DEVELOP AFTER
00Z AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP IS IN PLACE WITH ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS MORNING
THOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT LIGHT PRECIP....MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH LUNCH TIME. AFTER A BIT
DRIER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. GIVEN
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AND THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH HIGHS. BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MUCAPE OF
0.5 TO 1 KJ/KG ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKE
IT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME BEING REALIZED AND IF IT WERE TO
TRIGGER...THE SHEAR TO CAPE RATION MAY MAKE DEEP CONVECTION TO
COME BY. NEVERTHELESS... WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FCST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...COURTESY OF A SPLIT FLOW UA PATTERN THAT IS PROVIDING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STEADY STREAM OF UA LOW SYSTEMS/EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. NONETHELESS...A 1025
MB SFC RIDGE NE OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE FA WITH AN
E-NE/UPSLOPE SFC WIND...WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW LEVELS QUITE
MOIST /PWATS OF 1.00-1.20 INCHES/. LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOIST LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW DURING THE DAY. BY TOMORROW NIGHT-FRIDAY
MORNING...A PACIFIC UA LOW WILL BE MOVING ON SHORE OF SRN CALI AND
CAUSE SW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. CONCURRENTLY...A LEAD EMBEDDED
IMPULSE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE. IT IS THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK THAT MAY GENERATE THE RETURN OF A
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY BE FLEETING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS NE OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST DURING THE AFTN-EVENING HOURS.

LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE COME FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE EVOLVES INTO A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED UA TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS EVEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX/NM BORDER EACH AFTN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALL AID IN
PRODUCING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL OF A MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
GIVEN 1-2 KJ/KG OF MUCAPE AND 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
THEREAFTER...MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOME QUASI-ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SPELLS QUIETER WX.
HOWEVER...A DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA AND A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE NEED OF AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

ALL IN ALL...THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/ HAS A SWATH OF 1.50-
2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL NOTED FROM THE SW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NRN
ROLLING PLAINS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE /0.75-1.50 INCHES/
VALID FROM 00Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z NEXT WEDNESDAY. THUS...WPC HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE AMOUNTS AS IT WAS SHOWN TO BE 1.00 INCH OR
SO MORE IN THE RECENT PAST.

TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE COOLEST TOMORROW /50S AND 60S/ THANKS
TO THE CAA USHERED IN BY TODAY/S FRONT AND OF COURSE THE PROXIMITY
OF THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE. TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY
THE WEEKEND...AND WARM FURTHER INTO MOSTLY THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  59  50  69 /  30  40  60  40
TULIA         50  58  51  66 /  30  40  60  50
PLAINVIEW     51  59  51  67 /  30  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     53  60  52  72 /  30  60  70  50
LUBBOCK       53  61  52  70 /  30  50  60  60
DENVER CITY   54  60  52  75 /  30  60  60  50
BROWNFIELD    54  60  52  74 /  30  60  60  60
CHILDRESS     53  64  55  70 /  30  20  60  60
SPUR          55  62  54  71 /  40  40  60  60
ASPERMONT     57  65  56  75 /  40  30  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05


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