Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161828
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
128 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.AVIATION...
A surface low pressure trough will gradually sag southward from
the Texas Panhandle into the South Plains early Friday. Low level
flow generally will remain more veered through the period, but a
very shallow intrusion of low level moisture is expected to surge
northward into the southern South Plains impacting KLBB early
Friday. We have added a light fog mention between 09z and 14z
Friday for this potential, though only the HRRR solution at this
time is indicating such. A cold front will slide southward near
and just after daybreak Friday with moderately gusty northerly
breezes expected, and drier air as well. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/

AVIATION...
IFR conditions have rapidly formed at KLBB and it is expected that
KPVW will probably follow suit shortly. At this point, fog looks
less likely at KCDS but is not out of the question. Conditions
should improve beyond 14-15z. More stratus/fog is anticipated
tonight for the KCDS terminal along with a risk of LLWS.

UPDATE...
Have issued dense fog advisory given the visibility trends across
the area in combination with multi-spectral satellite imagery.
Visibility should start to improve by mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/

SHORT TERM...
WNWRLY flow continues today across the region as an upper level
ridge crosses the CWFA.  To our wet, a subtle disturbance approaches
this evening.  The dryline will likely push into the eastern half of
our area with the breeziest conditions this evening on the moist
side of the feature.  If we had more moisture and wasn`t so capped,
it would likely be a thunderstorm day.  But alas, that does not look
to be the case.  All things considered, with the height fields as
they are, it will be a warm day once any fog/stratus (that may
develop) erodes.  One limiting factor on highs today will be the
presence of cirrus.  However, PRIND suggest that it will remain
scattered.  Fog looks to be a possibility east of the Escarpment
Friday morning and have added mention thereof in the grids.  A cold
front is expected to approach the area Friday around sunrise.

LONG TERM...
Cold front pushes south through our area early Friday.
Reenforcement for the marginally cooler air mass doesn`t arrive
until later in the day as surface pressure falls deepen to our
west and weak instability aloft works around the ridge shifting
east. A developing surface low will draw shallow boundary layer
moisture into the Rolling Plains from north and central Texas Friday
evening into early Saturday, resulting in patchy fog early
Saturday through mid morning. Highs Saturday will still be well
above normal in the mid to upper 70s for most of us and then
increasing again into the upper 80s for Sunday and Monday as the
ridge axis slows to a near stand still along our longitude and a
series of weak shortwave energy continues to pivot around the
ridge, gradually flattening until the next trough arrives from the
west for the middle of next week, when the pattern becomes a
little more active. Appears our next chance at precipitation won`t
be until the end of next week, and that chance is low at this
point. Until then, unseasonably warm temps will persist though
fortunately the strong, potentially dusty and arid winds we might
expect this time of year will remain relatively moderate until
strong wind appears to develop across eastern NM next Wednesday
and could lead to some fire weather concerns.

$$

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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