Area Forecast Discussion
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448
FXUS64 KLUB 211157
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
557 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
The main concern this TAF cycle is on the gusty winds that will
affect the terminals later today and tonight. Sustained westerly
winds of 25 to 30 knots are expected to develop at KLBB and KPVW
this afternoon, with the strong winds gradually shifting to the
northwest late tonight. An AWW may eventually be needed for KLBB,
though this decision will be deferred to the next shift. These
stout winds could also loft a bit of blowing dust, though VFR
visibilities should previal. Winds shouldn`t be quite as strong
at KCDS today, they they will still be solidly into breezy levels.
Outside of the winds, the light showers that have already affected
KLBB and KPVW early this morning may impact KCDS over the next
hour or two. Additional isolated showers will be possible through
the day today with an outside chance of a storm this afternoon
too. More widespread though will be VFR cigs that will traverse
the terminals through the TAF cycle. There is a low chance
ceilings could dip to MFR at KCDS late tonight, where a few
showers could linger into early Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Another day, another round of wind. The latest instigator is a storm
system with strong jet energy (well in excess of 100 knots at 250
mb) stretching from the eastern Pacific through the Desert Southwest
and northwest Mexico. The strongest mid-upper level winds are
progged to be directed to our south through the day, but 850 mb
winds are still forecast to increase to 30 to 40 knots over much of
our CWA as the 850 mb and surface lows strengthen while tracking
from northeast New Mexico this morning through the northern Texas
Panhandle this afternoon. Decent mid-level lift and Pacific moisture
will provide plenty of cloud cover and even the risk of a few
showers, though limited low-level moisture will keep any rain
amounts on the light side. In fact, a good slug of lift and mid-
upper level moisture has already resulted in a large area of radar
echoes over the southwest South Plains into southeast New Mexico as
of 09Z. A good chunk of this elevated precipitation was drying up
before reaching the ground though the Seminole WTM did recently
record a hundredth of an inch.

The cloud cover will tend to repress deeper mixing today, but the
tightening pressure/height gradients still appear sufficient to
produce advisory level winds (sustained at 31 to 39 mph) over much
of the CWA from late this morning through this afternoon. The
exception will be across the far northeast zones where winds will be
a little weaker. Although the clouds will temper mixing some, the
elevated showers could also locally enhance the winds. If some spots
can squeeze out a little heating, steep mid-level lapse rates could
even support weak instability, potentially eeking out a few rumbles
of thunder this afternoon. Highs today will range from the middle
and upper 50s across the western zones to the middle 60s over the
eastern zones.

Wind may briefly decrease around 00Z, but are expected to
reinvigorate this evening into early Sunday morning as the 500 mb
low closes off over the Texas Panhandle and then translates into
Oklahoma early Sunday. The pressure gradient will further tighten
with winds shifting around to the northwest late tonight. Given the
expected strong winds much of today/tonight, we decided to go with a
relatively long wind advisory from 16Z through 12Z Sunday for all
but our far northeastern zones. However, those spots outside of the
advisory could see winds come close to advisory levels late tonight,
so the hazard may need to be readjusted later today.

Aside from the light showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder)
today, a few showers could try to wrap southward around the exiting
upper low into our northern zones tonight. A few flakes of snow
could even mix in around Vigo Park after midnight, though no impacts
are anticipated. Lows by Sunday morning will vary from near the
freezing mark northwest to lower and middle 40s in the Rolling
Plains.

LONG TERM...
By Sunday morning, the upper low will be racing toward the
ARKLATEX region so any wrap-around moisture should be off to our
east. A 120+ kt Upper-level jet will be moving across West Texas
during the day, but the lower-tropospheric speed max will be
moving off to the south and east, so after a short increase
associated with mixing in the morning, we should see a gradual
decreasing trend in wind speeds during the day. There could be a
small window for advisory winds in the morning in the Rolling
Plains, but at this time we expect the winds to remain shy of
criteria. Weak cold advection in the northwest flow will produce
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s across the forecast area.

A low-amplitude ridge will pass across the area on Monday with
surface winds returning to a southwesterly fetch as a trough
deepens in the southern high plains. Temperatures will jump up in
response to this with Monday`s highs expected to be in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Meanwhile, a large trough will be moving through the
interior west with one piece quickly ejecting into the northern
plains on Tuesday. The next upper-level jet will overspread the
southern plains with our forecast area likely to be positioned
within a corridor of strong 850-700mb winds. The good news is that
the wind max may pass across the morning hours Tuesday although
the timing is still a bit uncertain at this point. In any case
Tuesday should be breezy to windy. Height falls edging in from
the west will bring cooler temps, but the actual cold front won`t
move through until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The Wednesday
through Friday period will feature several shortwaves rotating
through a broad longwave trough slowly translating across the
central and eastern U.S. This will keep our area under the
influence of cool northerly flow with highs only in the 40s and
50s.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Sunday for
TXZ021>023-027>031-033>044.

&&

$$

23/33/23



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