Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 181720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

VFR next 24 hours. Winds will rapidly veer this afternoon. A cold
front should just be NW of our terminals by 18Z Wed.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016/

The cold front continues to make good southward progress this
morning and was located along a Muleshoe, Plainview, to Paducah line
as of 330 am CDT.  Wind speeds behind the front have ramped up into
the 15 to 25 mph range but Childress gusted up to near 40 mph after
the frontal passage there.  West Texas Mesonet sites behind the
front haven`t show gusts as high so think that for the most part,
wind gusts shouldn`t be too bad behind the front.  Current speed
shows the front should clear our southern counties before or right
at sunrise.  This should result in a pleasant day across the area
with highs generally 15 degrees cooler than we saw yesterday.  Drier
air will filter in behind the front with dewpoints falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s as opposed to the upper 50 to lower 60s south
of the front also making it feel like a pleasant day across the

Wind will gradually swing back to the south overnight as a
progressive pattern aloft keeps the center of the surface ridge from
pushing south over the area.  The wind forecast does have portions
of the forecast area going light and variable by sunrise which would
result in temperatures falling a bit below the current forecast mins
tomorrow morning.  Southerly flow across the western South Plains
should keep the normal areas from cratering as well but would not be
surprised to see a few areas approach the upper 30s to lower 40s in
some of the low-lying/cold air drainage areas.


Dry cyclonic flow kicks off the extended realm before buckling back
to upper ridging complete with above normal warmth for the weekend.
Following this morning`s front, a stronger reinforcement remains on
track for Wed. Models are nearly identical with this front bisecting
our CWA from SW to NE by peak heating, so opted to sharpen the max
temp gradient from 70s in the NW to near 90 in the southeast. The
fringes of a moist axis are still close enough to our Low Rolling
Plains to keep a low mention of storms by the evening, but such
progressive drying from N-S implies this will be a small window
with some skunk factor possible should FROPA accelerate further.

Steady northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph Wed night are not progged to
relax until late Thu as the surface high enters the Panhandle. Even
so, magnitude of cold advection supports near freezing lows in our
NW zones by Thu AM as supported by some progs, before the coldest
lows shift off the Caprock by Fri morning collocated with the surface
high and lightest winds. Thereafter, largely barren return flow
ensues with a string of breezy afternoons ahead of stagnant surface
troughing to our west. With such paltry moisture under 500 mb heights
pushing 5890 meters, feel MOS is a bit cool with high temps, perhaps
from its climo weighting. Upshot was to grow the diurnal temp range
a few degrees Fri through Mon to account for very mild afternoons
and cool nights - not at all dissimilar to the past several days.
Moisture deficits could lose some ground toward the middle of next
week after days of uninterrupted return flow, though this may not
translate into anything meaningful as the GFS and ECMWF shunt the
moist axis east in progressively stronger W-SW flow.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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