Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 280527
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1127 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Breezy conditions will persist overnight at all three terminals
with westerly wind speeds increasing once again by late morning.
Check your crosswind component maxima especially at KCDS and plan
accordingly. Conditions should remain largely VFR though some risk
of MVFR blowing dust will be possible Monday afternoon at
KPVW/KLBB. Note that the KCDS wind sensor is out of service and
likely will not be returned to service before sunrise. To obtain
a approximation of the wind speeds near that area, please refer to
the Childress 2NNE mesonet site at http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu and your
local wind sock.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A solid wind event was ongoing across the region this afternoon
after a fairly moist morning. Wind observations from the western
Panhandle have even been briefly meeting high wind criteria where
there has been more clearing of high level clouds. As a Pacific
front sweeps through and off the caprock this evening, it may
become a focus for convection. However, this convection may only
be limited to areas as far west as Stonewall County as lift
interacts with moist air east of the boundary.

Another short wave trough will pass over the region tomorrow
morning. The timing of the passage of the trough axis is not optimal
for strong winds with wind maxes aloft moving east or south of the
region by late morning. However, winds at 700mb will still be at a
respectable 35-40kt along with a fairly strong height gradient
remaining. The core of strongest winds aloft will be just to the
south of the South Plains but will still result in a windy day.

LONG TERM...
Tuesday will be breezy but wind speeds will be a bit lower than we
see tomorrow afternoon as another trough moves over the area.
Helping to lower wind speeds will be a weak cold front that will
move across the forecast area through the day. This will help to
relax the surface pressure gradient some as well as bring in
temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than Monday. Wednesday and
Thursday will be relatively calm days in comparison to the start
of this week and temperatures will warm up some on Thursday ahead
of the next storm system.

Models continue to dig a trough along the West Coast eventually
closing this energy off into a closed low during the day Friday.
Ahead of this storm, southwesterly flow aloft will develop which
will begin to increase moisture levels across the region. Another
stronger cold front will also arrive during the morning Friday
which will help to cool temperatures down and the models have come
in another couple degrees cooler for Saturday. This places highs
on the Caprock Saturday afternoon in the mid to upper 30s which
will likely result in a mix of precipitation types. Will keep a
mention of rain/snow mix in the forecast for now but continued
narrowing of the diurnal temperature trend will determine what the
final type will be. Still too early to tell any amounts for frozen
precipitation due to the uncertainty on temperature trends as well
as how fast the upcoming weekend storm system will clear out of
the area. The ECMWF now starts swinging the closed low east
across Texas on Sunday while the GFS keeps the center of the low
over northwestern Mexico until finally kicking it east on Tuesday
morning.

Jordan

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather conditions will again be elevated on Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler on Monday following a cold front this
evening but drier surface air will still result in afternoon
relative humidity values between 20 and 25 percent. Winds at the 20
foot level will again be between 25 and 30 mph but more out of the
west and will increase earlier in the day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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