Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 090958
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW 20S AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT...GIVING A HEAD
START TO TODAYS HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 70. RELATIVELY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
MID MORNING BECOMING BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL SEE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH BY MIDDAY
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WE WILL SEE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO INCREASED NW FLOW
ALOFT FROM A STRONG JET STRETCHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT AN AREA OF INCREASED
CONFLUENT FLOW MAY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS OF LATE AND SB OUTPUT WAS TOO
HIGH...EXPECT VALUES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER ESPECIALLY IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS CHILDRESS DEWPT DROPPED BELOW ZERO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL EASE AROUND SUNSET WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE
LOW 30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS IT
WAY EAST WITH INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR EAST IN OKLAHOMA HELPING
TEMPS CLIMB ANOTHER 10 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...
RATHER BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED AS A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS
IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARKS IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTS THAT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS.

AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS PROPEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S. A FEW LOWER 80S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN BACKDOOR THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SPILLS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT AND KNOCK HIGHS DOWN
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE MODEST COOL DOWN WILL BE
SHORT- LIVED AS DOWNSLOPE BREEZES QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. A
COLDER/STRONGER SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN DROP INTO THE CENTER OF THE
NATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEST TEXAS WILL AGAIN ONLY SEE A
GLANCING BLOW...BUT IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP HIGHS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S OFF THE CAPROCK WHILE HIGHS EDGE DOWN INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FURTHER TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SOMETIME ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMERGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND
TEMPER THE POTENTIAL WARMING TREND THAT THE SLOWER GFS SUPPORTS. FOR
NOW WE HAVE STUCK TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH UNTIL THE NWP
CAN SORT THE TIMING ISSUES OUT. IF THE SLOWER GFS WERE TO BE
REALIZED A BRIEF RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS COULD
OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH OTHERWISE ONLY OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR IN THE OFFING FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE LATE WEEKEND
FROPA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST...THOUGH DEWPOINTS WERE TRIMMED BACK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS NWP HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO HIGH THROUGH THIS RECENT DRY
SPELL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING MID MORNING TODAY
WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH. WITH NO RECENT
RAIN...DRY FUELS AND HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WE WILL
SEE ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AN AREA OF
CONFLUENT WINDS MAY INCREASE SPEEDS FURTHER BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
EASE AROUND SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S /AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S/ WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE...SUSTAINED IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...BUT IF THE PROGGED
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
WARRANTED. ATTM...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT DAY AND IT COULD VENTURE INTO RED FLAG TERRITORY IF
WINDS INCREASE ABOVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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