Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THEY SHIFT AROUND THE DIAL
FROM NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON
TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND THEN WESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A REMOTE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
IS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE PER WV...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD
BE THE ONLY RESULT FROM THE WAVE AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED.
DESPITE HAVING CAPE TO WORK WITH...THE WEATHER LATER TODAY SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE QUIET COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW EVENINGS AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC WITH NVA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS EXISTS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM BUT WILL BE NOT OUT OF CONTROL AS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/EAST NORTHEAST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE HANDLED SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENLY BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THOUGH SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONVERGING ON A PATTERN OF VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS HAS
BEEN EVIDENCED BY THE ECM SOLUTION THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPIATION ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING INVOF SURFACE TROUGH.  THIS
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORMS LOOKS TO PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON.  OUR
WESTERN ROW OR TWO LOOK TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  HAVE
ACCORDINGLY TRENDED POPS A FEW POINTS IN ANTICIPATION OF A CLEARER
SYNOPTIC PICTURE.  WHILE WE WILL START OUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO SUNDAY...A GENERAL COOLING TOWARD MID WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  94  63  91  62 /  10   0  10   0  10
TULIA         66  95  66  94  66 /  10   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     66  95  66  93  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  95  65  94  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  69  94  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  94  66  92  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  67  94  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  72  99  72 /  10   0  10   0  10
SPUR          67  99  68  97  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     70 100  72  99  72 /  20   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23






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