Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200052 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
652 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Minor update to extend the sprinkle mention from the eastern South
Plains into the Rolling Plains into this evening. Mid-level
showers are gradually diminishing but a few sprinkles and/or light
showers could persist for the next couple of hours before coming
to an end altogether. Otherwise, main convective show will remain
to our east tonight. Did also make small adjustments to the
temperature, dewpoint and wind grids to better reflect recent
observations and trends. The update forecast products have been
sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Afternoon water vapor data showed a decaying upper low directly over
the Four Corners, lifting northeast within a broad upper trough
extending south through the interior of Mexico. Ahead of this trough
axis, weak height falls edging across our western counties at 2 PM
were sustaining a broad layer of clouds around 9000 feet AGL
complete with very light rain and sprinkles at times. Farther east,
a modified Pacific front/pseudo-dryline was found from about Tulia
southeast to Clairemont, with capped boundary layer Cu noted near
the Highway 83 corridor. However, with the aggressive erosion of
earlier stratus, temps have heated up nicely and could breach modest
capping in some locales, especially as weak height falls arrive in
the coming hours. Better storm threat (including severe modes) still
remains in northwest TX within a deeper moist axis, better mid-level
lapse rates and comparably less CIN.

Until the front clears our NE zones around midnight, there is some
concern that a third night of fog and low clouds could develop given
very moist low levels and light upslope winds. Opted to omit this
mention as this window for fog will be much smaller than prior
nights. Even though the upper trough will be poised atop the region
on Monday, deep drying aloft will ensue as the trough splits its
energy well to our north and south. The northern troughing will
deliver a decaying cold front and northerly wind shift to the CWA by
midday. This wind shift will be a factor for any controlled burns,
so fire planners should be alert to this midday wind shift. Else,
seasonably mild highs remain on track under full sun and drier
winds.

LONG TERM...
Ridging will move into the area Monday evening as northerly flow
persist into late Tuesday.  During this time, an upper low will
deepen across the upper Texas Coast though of little consequence to
us.  UL winds will become southwesterly into Wednesday and continue
to back as a trough comes ashore the Pacific Coast then ejecting
across the area on Thursday.  Zonal flow will then persist until
Sunday when indications are that another trough will dig into the
desert southwest.

Monday`s cold front should be well south of the FA by Tuesday
evening.  Wind speeds should remain rather tame through Tuesday as
return flow become established across the region.  However, by
Wednesday, breezy westerlies will increase thanks to a tightening
surface pressure gradient. Thursday will be the windiest of the
batch as speeds pick up in the morning followed by a Pacific front
in the afternoon. The data continue to point toward both wind and
fire weather highlight potential with sustained wind speeds up
near 30 mph especially across the western portion of the CWFA.
However, it should be noted that the day before the anticipated
highest wind speed day is often a day of fire weather concern
(Wed) and as such, we could see near critical to critical
conditions form.  Highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will be
well into the 80s. A cold front then sweeps through on Friday
morning bringing temperatures somewhat closer to seasonal norms.
Recovery won`t take long with the lee trough becoming re-
established by Saturday allowing breezy southerlies to return. A
risk of tstorms may return late Sunday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33/23



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