Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 170813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
313 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The mid-level weakness that has been lingering over Colorado in
recent days was finally beginning to lift northeastward. This is
expected to continue today as it deamplifies and is gradually
absorbed into the westerlies residing across the northern CONUS.
This will allow the upper ridge across the central plains to
bridge with low amplitude ridging across the southwestern states.
The east-west elongated ridge across the center of the nation will
will effectively shunt the deeper tropospheric moisture westward
as easterly mid-level flow and increased subsidence overspread the
South Plains region south of the ridge axis. Before then, enough
residual moisture coupled with residual boundaries and strong
daytime heating should be enough to provide one more day of
convection, though coverage is expected to be more isolated than
Sunday. Given the weak forcing, convective details remain
subtle/elusive, though the recent high-resolution guidance favors
the Rolling Plains for the initial development around 17-18Z where
weak confluent flow is expected. Additional isolated
thunderstorms should follow over much of the remainder of the CWA
this afternoon before gradually fading this evening. Slow storm
motions and elevated precipitable water values (1.3-1.5 inches)
could support brief, localized downpours, though gradual drying
aloft may tend to limit cell size, duration and efficiency versus

It appears mid-level warming and drying will be sufficient to
more effectively limit or completely quell storm development by
Tuesday afternoon. A rogue shower or storm can`t be completely
ruled out across the western zones, though the better chances will
reside over the higher terrain of New Mexico and points north and
west from there. The upper ridge should then hold favor over West
Texas through the rest of the week as the center of it slowly
shifts toward the Deep South. This will keep the monsoon moisture
and storm chances to our west through the week while temperatures
edge upward a few degrees above July averages.

Eventually the upper ridge is forecast to be suppressed as the
jet buckles across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this coming
weekend. This would allow the monsoon fetch to shift eastward,
perhaps bending across our western/northwestern counties, renewing
thunder chances there. Given this we have introduced slim storm
chances near the TX/NM line on Saturday, spreading a little
further east Sunday and Sunday night.




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